Timothy Thomas

Senior Research Fellow

Tim Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. This work has expanded recently to include evaluating the fuller impact of climate change by accounting for uncertainty and interannual variability, especially in regard to extreme events and low-productivity years. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures; generating crop yield emulators to provide intuition and to speed simulations; and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics. Tim has also worked in a variety of domains developing innovative methods such as spatial disaggregation (applied to gridded agricultural GDP in Brazil); determining optimal cropland level subnationally (for Ethiopia); and together with other researchers, investigating the impact of climate change on aflatoxins.

Featured Publications

Climate Uncertainty, Inter-annual Variability, and Extreme Events

Thomas, Timothy S., C. Adam Schlosser, Kenneth Strzepek, Richard D. Robertson, and Channing Arndt. 2022. “Using a Large Climate Ensemble to Assess the Frequency and Intensity of Future Extreme Climate Events in Southern Africa”, Frontiers in Climate 4. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.787721.

Thomas, Timothy S., Richard D. Robertson, Kenneth Strzepek, and Channing Arndt. 2022. “Extreme Events and Production Shocks for Key Crops in Southern Africa Under Climate Change”, Frontiers in Climate 4. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.787582.

Schlosser, C. Adam, Andrei Sokolov, Ken Strzepek, Tim Thomas, Xiang Gao, and Channing Arndt. 2021. “The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa”, Climatic Change 168 (October). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03235-5

Food System Sustainability

Fan, Shenggen, Derek Headey, Christopher Rue, and Timothy Thomas. 2021. “Food Systems for Human and Planetary Health: Economic Perspectives and Challenges”, Annual Review of Resource Economics 13:18.1–18.26. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-101520-081337.

Thomas, Timothy S. and Shahnila Dunston. 2019. “The Challenge of Feeding the World while Preserving Natural Resources: Findings of a Global Bioeconomic Model” in Sustainable Solutions for Food Security: Combating Climate Change by Adaptation, edited by Atanu Sarkar, Suman Ranjan Sensarma, and Gary W. van Loon. New York: Springer.

Thomas, Timothy S. 2018. “Changes in Food Supply and Demand by 2050”, chapter in Food Security and Climate Change edited by Shyam S. Yadav, Robert Redden, Jerry L. Hatfield, Andreas W. Ebert, and Danny Hunter. New York: Wiley.

Climate Change in Central Asia

Thomas, Timothy S.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Robertson, Richard D.; Nazareth, Vijay; and Ilyasov, Jarilkasin. 2021. Climate change, agriculture, and potential crop yields in Central Asia. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2081. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/134920

Islyami, A., Aldashev, A., Thomas, T.S. and Dunston, S. 2020. “Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Kazakhstan”, Silk Road: A Journal of Eurasian Development 2(1), pp.66–88. DOI: http://doi.org/10.16997/srjed.19.

Khakimov, P., Aliev, J., Thomas, T.S., Ilyasov, J. and Dunston, S. 2020. “Climate Change Effects on Agriculture and Food Security in Tajikistan”, Silk Road: A Journal of Eurasian Development 2(1), pp.89–112. DOI: http://doi.org/10.16997/srjed.33.

Climate Change in Africa

Arndt, Channing; Gabriel, Sherwin; Hartley, Faaiqa; Strzepek, Kenneth Marc; Thomas, Timothy S. 2021. Climate change and the green transition in South Africa. In The Oxford Handbook of the South African Economy, eds. A. Oqubay, F. Tregenna, I. Valodia. Oxford University Press 2021.

Thomas, Timothy S., Paul A. Dorosh and Richard D. Robertson. 2020. “Climate change impacts on crop yields”, in Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios, eds. Paul A. Dorosh and Bart Minten. Part One: Natural Resources and Production, Chapter 4, Pp. 97-113. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

Schmidt, Emily and Timothy S. Thomas. 2020. “Cropland expansion”, in Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios, eds. Paul A. Dorosh and Bart Minten. Part One: Natural Resources and Production, Chapter 2, Pp. 23-51. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

Thomas, Timothy S. and Mark C. Rosegrant. 2015. "Climate change impact on key crops in Africa: Using crop models and general equilibrium models to bound the prediction", Chapter 5 in Climate change and food systems: global assessments and implications for food security and trade, Aziz Elbehri (editor). Rome: Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Available at http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4332e.pdf.

Hachigonta, Sepo, Gerald Nelson, Timothy S. Thomas, and Lindiwe Majele Sibanda, eds. 2013. Southern African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis. IFPRI Research Monograph. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute. Available at http://www.ifpri.org/publication/southern-african-agriculture-and-climate-change.

Waithaka, Michael, Gerald Nelson, Timothy S. Thomas, and Miriam Kyotalimye, eds. 2013. East African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis. IFPRI Research Monograph. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute. Available at http://www.ifpri.org/publication/east-african-agriculture-and-climate-change.

Jalloh, Abdulai, Gerald C. Nelson, Timothy S. Thomas, Robert Zougmoré, and Harold Roy-Macauley, eds. 2013. West African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis. IFPRI Research Monograph. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute. Available at http://www.ifpri.org/publication/west-african-agriculture-and-climate-change.

Climate Change in Latin America

Morris, Michael, Ashwini Rekha Sebastian, and Viviana Maria Eugenia Perego, with John Nash, Eugenio Díaz-Bonilla, Valeria Piñeiro, David Laborde, Timothy S. Thomas, Pradeep Prabhala, Joaquín Arias, and Miriam Centurion. 2020. Future Foodscapes: Re-imagining Agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean. Washington: The World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/942381591906970569/Future-Foo….

Piñeiro, Valeria, Timothy S. Thomas, David Laborde Debucquet and Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla. 2020. “Drivers and disruptors shaping the future of agriculture and the food system in LAC: Climate change and trade tensions”, IFPRI Discussion Paper 1967. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134084.

Gianella, Cecilia, Jorge Chavez-Tafur, and Timothy S. Thomas. 2019. “Climate Change, Agriculture, and Adaptation Options for Peru”, IFPRI Discussion Paper 01828 (April). Washington: IFPRI. Available at http://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/133213/filename/133424.pdf.

Rodriguez, Jorge, Timothy S. Thomas, Nicola Cenacchi, and Ana R. Rios. 2019. “Climate Change, Agriculture, and Adaptation Options for Nicaragua”, IFPRI Discussion Paper 01829 (April). Washington: IFPRI. Available at http://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/133214/filename/133426.pdf.

Sanders, Arie, Timothy S. Thomas, Ana R. Rios, and Shahnila Dunston. 2019. “Climate Change, Agriculture, and Adaptation Options for Honduras”, IFPRI Discussion Paper 01827 (April). Washington: IFPRI. Available at http://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/133215/filename/133425.pdf.

Salazar, Mauricio, Timothy S. Thomas, Shahnila Dunston, and Vijay Nazareth. 2019. “Climate Change Impacts in El Salvador’s Economy: The Agricultural Sector”, IFPRI Discussion Paper 01826 (April). Washington: IFPRI. Available at https://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/133211/filename/133420.pdf.

Sain, Gustavo, Timothy S. Thomas, and Nicola Cenacchi. 2019. “Climate Change, Agriculture, and Adaptation Options for Costa Rica”, IFPRI Discussion Paper 01825 (April). Washington: IFPRI. Available at http://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/133209/filename/133423.pdf.

Boshell, Francisco, Timothy S. Thomas, Vijay Nazareth, and Nicola Cenacchi. 2018. “Climate Change, Agriculture, and Adaptation Options for Colombia”, IFPRI Discussion Paper 01790 (December). Washington: IFPRI. Available at http://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/133035/filename/133249.pdf.

Castellanos, Edwin J., Timothy S. Thomas, and Shahnila Dunston. 2018. “Climate Change, Agriculture, and Adaptation Options for Guatemala”, IFPRI Discussion Paper 01789 (December). Washington: IFPRI. Available at http://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/133036/filename/133245.pdf.

Thomas, Timothy S., Ana María Loboguerrero Rodríguez, Daniel Mason-D’croz, and Deissy Martínez Barón. 2018. “An overview of methods used to study the impact of climate change on agriculture in Central America and the Andean Region”, IFPRI Discussion Paper 01771 (November). Washington: IFPRI. Available at http://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/132953/filename/133157.pdf.

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