This webinar showcases two innovative approaches to understanding how economic and climate-related risks affect national economies and vulnerable populations across developing regions.
The first presentation introduces an economywide modeling approach to assess economic vulnerabilities. It examines how national economies and key population groups are exposed to shocks—such as global market fluctuations or disruptions in domestic production—and identifies the most significant risks to overall economic performance, household well-being, and progress toward reducing poverty and hunger.
The second presentation features a risk model that assesses the risks that drought poses to household consumption across five main agroecological zones in Africa. While storm or flood damages are commonly estimated, fewer tools exist for assessing income losses from droughts. This approach uses data from nearly 100,000 households to estimate how drought shocks affect poverty levels. Findings show that national poverty rates can be 1–12 percent higher—depending on the country—under the worst weather conditions compared to the best conditions observed in the past 13 years.
Together, these presentations offer practical tools to help policymakers, researchers, and practitioners better understand and address the complex risks that threaten sustainable development.
Moderator and Opening Remarks
- James Thurlow, Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, IFPRI
Presentation
- Askar Mukashov, Research Fellow, Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, IFPRI
- Ruth Hill, Director, Markets, Trade and Institutions Unit, IFPRI
Discussant
- Susanna Sandström, Senior Economist, World Food Programme (WFP)
Watch previous webinars in this series:
What does climate change mean for the future of agriculture? Insights from the IMPACT modeling system (May 15, 2024)
How do we prioritize agrifood system policies and investments? Insights from the RIAPA modeling system (June 12, 2024)
How does agricultural productivity growth affect agrifood system transformation goals? Exploring trade-offs using IMPACT (July 9, 2024)
How should governments respond to crises? Rapid response using RIAPA modeling system (August 13, 2024)
How can we improve global crop mapping? IFPRI’s Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) (November 21, 2024)
How can we improve food security monitoring in conflict-affected regions? Machine learning for spatially granular food security mapping (March 25, 2025)