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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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Abhijeet Mishra

Abhijeet Mishra is a Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. Abhijeet’s research interests include future sustainable pathways for the global land-use system and the trade-offs between land-based mitigation, food security, and other sustainable development goals.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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The International Growth Centre (IGC) encourages sustainable growth in developing countries by providing demand-led policy advice based on frontier research. IGC directs a global network of researchers and in-country teams in Africa and South Asia to create research and policy advice on vital growth challenges. IGC is based at the London School of Economics (LSE) and in partnership with the University of Oxford. The IGC is majority funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID).

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Publications

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Working Paper

Conflict and farmland values: Spatial panel data evidence from rice plots in Myanmar

2026Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian; Aung, Zin Wai; Ei Win, Hnin
Details

Conflict and farmland values: Spatial panel data evidence from rice plots in Myanmar

The significant economic implications of the value of farmland in developing countries is increasingly recognized, particularly in those countries where land scarcity is a growing problem. However, knowledge gaps remain about how farmland values can be affected by factors such as conflict and social instability. A knowledge gap also remains regarding how spatial transmission and feedback effects of land values among geographically proximate parcels may affect the relationship between conflict and farmland values. This impact has generally been overlooked in the literature, despite the well-established importance of clustering in agricultural economies. This paper addresses these gaps by utilizing unique, nationally representative panel data on farm households and spatial data on conflict intensity in Myanmar, with a focus on the period of significant conflict intensification following the 2021 political crisis, particularly in 2022 and 2023, when the country’s conflict level largely shifted to a high-intensity state. We apply spatial econometric models and their extensions to a panel data framework, as well as models that allow for endogenous spatial weights, which enable conflicts to not only affect farmland values but also shape how changes in farmland values transmit across locations. Our results indicate that more local conflict during the prior 12 months, measured by the number of months with at least one fatal violent event within the township of respondents, significantly reduced the farmland values of the largest rice plot of these respondents. Specifically, in the monsoon and non-monsoon harvesting seasons of 2022 and 2023, an additional one month of fatal violence was associated with approximately 3 percent and 5 percent decline in land values, respectively, implying a potentially sizable decline for townships that experience more persistent conflicts over several months. Moreover, the effects of violent events are magnified by spatial spillover effects on land values across village tracts. These adverse effects are robust and consistent across a range of methodologies and hold across diverse agroecological conditions.

Year published

2026

Authors

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian; Aung, Zin Wai; Ei Win, Hnin

Citation

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian; Aung, Zin Wai; and Win, Hnin Ei. 2026. Conflict and farmland values: Spatial panel data evidence from rice plots in Myanmar. 2026. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2418. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183196

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Farmland; Conflicts; Spatial Analysis; Seasons; Monsoon Climate; Cereals; Rice

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Strengthening Myanmar’s agrifood system: Evidence and pathways for resilience

2026
Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian; Curtis, Matt; van Asselt, Joanna; Goeb, Joseph; Aung, Zin Wai; Htar, May Thet; Linn, Khin Mar; Oo, Theingi; Synt, Nang Lun
…more Ei Win, Hnin; Zu, A Myint
Details

Strengthening Myanmar’s agrifood system: Evidence and pathways for resilience

Myanmar’s agrifood system is central to the country’s economy and to the livelihoods of most of its population, having historically accounted for roughly almost half of GDP and two-thirds of employment. Since 2021, the political crisis, intensifying conflict and insecurity, climate shocks, and a major earthquake have placed the system under sustained and compounding stress. Drawing on evidence collected between 2021 and 2025, this paper provides a snapshot of where the system stands following this period of crisis and identifies opportunities for strengthening its resilience going forward. Private sector actors have been central to sustaining the agrifood system’s resilience since 2021. Input retailers have maintained the physical availability of fertilizer, seeds, and agro-chemicals, even in insecure areas, while mechanization service providers have continued to supply labor-saving services through flexible payment arrangements. Private agribusinesses have absorbed the contraction in formal credit, now accounting for roughly three-quarters of fertilizer credit sources, and have become the dominant providers of extension, both in-person and digital. These actors are operating under significant financial stress, but they have sustained farmers’ access to inputs, services, credit, and advice during a period when these would otherwise have likely collapsed. Input costs have risen significantly since 2022, with agricultural wages, mechanization costs, and fertilizer prices all rising substantially. Farmers have responded by partially shifting toward lower-cost production practices, including direct seeding, which carries an estimated yield penalty of approximately 15 percent compared to transplanted rice. Promoting appropriate agricultural technologies in conflict- and climate-affected areas requires targeted attention, particularly for smallholders and more remote households. Sustaining and expanding development assistance alongside humanitarian assistance will be important to support the transition toward more productive and sustainable farming systems, with scaling domestic production of organic soil amendments and expanding mechanization services. Agricultural extension use rebounded to 38 percent in the 2025 dry season, with the private sector now the dominant provider and digital channels expanding rapidly. Given persistently low and unequal access to extension services, more inclusive outreach combining targeted in-person support in underserved areas with strengthened digital delivery is needed, with particular attention to women, less educated, remote, and conflict-affected farmers. As agrochemical distributors dominate both in-person and digital advisory services, promoting high-quality agronomic content and ensuring clear separation between technical advice and product promotion is important. The rapid expansion of digital platforms creates opportunities but requires investments in digital literacy, content quality, and monitoring systems to assess impact. Partnerships between digital platforms and large firms could also support traceability and quality requirements for export markets.

Year published

2026

Authors

Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian; Curtis, Matt; van Asselt, Joanna; Goeb, Joseph; Aung, Zin Wai; Htar, May Thet; Linn, Khin Mar; Oo, Theingi; Synt, Nang Lun; Ei Win, Hnin; Zu, A Myint

Citation

Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian; Curtis, Matt; van Asselt, Joanna; Goeb, Joseph; et al. 2026. Strengthening Myanmar’s agrifood system: Evidence and pathways for resilience. Myanmar SSP Working Paper 80. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183199

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Agrifood Systems; Resilience; Stress; Conflicts

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Journal Article

Role of credit access, improved varieties, and gender dynamics in commercialization of cassava seeds in Nigeria

2026
Abioye, D.O.; Yami, M.; Fillipi, V.; Omitoyin, S.; Ogunniyi, A.I.; Popoola, Olufemi; Fadare, D.A.; Olorode, B.; Adeyeye, J.; Sore, S.Z.
…more Atser, R.; Atser, G.; Sanni, L.; Popoola, B.; Shaibu, A.; Nwilene, F.; Akande, A.
Details

Role of credit access, improved varieties, and gender dynamics in commercialization of cassava seeds in Nigeria

Cassava seed entrepreneurship is critical for strengthening seed systems and advancing agricultural transformation in Nigeria. This study examines the determinants of smallholder participation in cassava seed entrepreneurship and simulates the effects of targeted policy interventions using survey data from 993 cassava farmers in Benue State. The analysis applies a binary logit framework with counterfactual scenario simulations and production-regime, specific estimations to account for heterogeneity between low- and high-productivity environments, alongside additional robustness checks. The results show that access to credit (dy/dx = 13.2%, p <0.01), adoption of improved cassava varieties (dy/dx = 14.3%, p < 0.01), use of an area-calculation mobile application (dy/dx = 7.1%, p < 0.05), and access to extension services (dy/dx = 5.2%, p < 0.05) significantly increase the likelihood of participation in cassava seed entrepreneurship. Gender-disaggregated analysis indicates that male farmers have a modest but meaningful advantage (β = 0.92, dy/dx = 5.8%), reflecting differential access to productive resources and institutional support. The production-regime analysis reveals important structural differences in participation drivers. In low-productivity environments, participation is primarily constrained by financial capital, with credit access emerging as the dominant determinant. In contrast, in high-productivity environments, participation is more strongly influenced by technological complementarities, particularly adoption of improved varieties, digital decision-support tools, and extension services that enhance productivity and market coordination. These findings highlight that entrepreneurial engagement is context-dependent rather than uniform across farming systems. Policy simulations further indicate that the joint provision of credit and improved varieties could increase participation probabilities by 36.1 percentage points for men, 32.0 percentage points for youth (≤35 years), and 25.8 percentage points for women, demonstrating substantial untapped entrepreneurial potential among women and youth if structural barriers are relaxed. As part of the robustness analysis, conflict exposure, used as a proxy for local political instability, shows a positive and statistically significant association with participation, suggesting that farmers in conflict-affected environments may adopt cassava seed entrepreneurship as a resilience or income-diversification strategy. Consistency across alternative specifications confirms that institutional access, technological adoption, and productive capacity remain more decisive for participation than most demographic characteristics. Overall, the study underscores the need for gender and youth-responsive policies that integrate financial inclusion, technological support, institutional strengthening, context-sensitive interventions as well as attention to productivity regimes and local security conditions, to promote inclusive and resilient cassava seed systems in Nigeria.

Year published

2026

Authors

Abioye, D.O.; Yami, M.; Fillipi, V.; Omitoyin, S.; Ogunniyi, A.I.; Popoola, Olufemi; Fadare, D.A.; Olorode, B.; Adeyeye, J.; Sore, S.Z.; Atser, R.; Atser, G.; Sanni, L.; Popoola, B.; Shaibu, A.; Nwilene, F.; Akande, A.

Citation

Abioye, D.O., Yami, M., Fillipi, V., Omitoyin, S., Ogunniyi, A.I., Olufemi, A.P., … & Akande, A. (2026). Role of credit access, improved varieties, and gender dynamics in commercialization of cassava seeds in Nigeria. World Development Perspectives, 42, 100789, 1-16.

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Western Africa; Financial Inclusion; Smallholders; Cassava; Seed; Farmers; Entrepreneurship; Productivity; Youth

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2026.100789 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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August 24, 2020, 4:00 – 5:30 pm

Some Welfare Consequences of COVID-19 in Ethiopia

Cross-country experience so far shows that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and responses to combat are multidimensional. It is thus reasonable to expect the occurrence of these effects in Ethiopia. Findings of several studies will be reported during this webinar. The presentations focus on the impact of COVID-19 on the welfare of mothers and […]

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