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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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Eliot Jones-Garcia

Eliot Jones-Garcia is a Senior Research Analyst with the Natural Resources and Resilience Unit based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on human-AI interaction, user-centered design, and the ethical and responsible development of AI. Eliot is currently finalizing a PhD on the digitalization of agricultural advisory services at Wageningen University & Research.

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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Development Strategies and Governance

Adetunji Fasoranti

Monitoring & Evaluation Officer

Bio

Adetunji Fasoranti is a Monitoring and Evaluation Specialist for the Nigeria Strategy Support Program (NSSP), based in Abuja, Nigeria. Adetunji’s handles complicated monitoring and evaluations issues across donor-funded projects and has competencies in conducting field interviews and analyzing agricultural inputs and state-level policies.

Prior to joining IFPRI, Adetunji worked as a Project Assistant at the International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC), and then as an M Monitoring and Evaluation Specialist. He also served as an Monitoring and Evaluation Officer for Chemonics International Inc. Adetunji received a master’s degree in Development Studies from the Nigeria Defence Academy in Kaduna, Nigeria.

Nigeria Strategy Support Program

Development Strategies and Governance

Publications

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Brief

Bridging Nigeria’s fertilizer supply-demand gap for agricultural transformation

2025Fasoranti, Adetunji; Kirui, Oliver K.; Popoola, Olufemi; Ali, Samuel; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi
Details

Bridging Nigeria’s fertilizer supply-demand gap for agricultural transformation

Nigeria’s fertilizer sector exhibits a persistent disconnect between national supply and farm-level use. Despite rapid growth in domestic production and increased private-sector participation, fertilizer adoption among smallholder farmers remains among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper examines the key drivers of Nigeria’s fertilizer supply–demand imbalance and its implications for agricultural transformation. Using national statistics, market data, and policy reviews, it identifies persistent barriers – including high distribution costs, inconsistent government policies, weak extension systems, limited credit access, and poor product quality – that constrain effective fertilizer use. It also assesses how export-oriented incentives and underdeveloped domestic markets influence local availability and pricing. The findings show that expanding production alone is insufficient to achieve meaningful agricultural change. Coordinated market reforms, stronger regulatory enforcement, improved delivery mechanisms, and targeted support to smallholder farmers are needed to improve affordability, access, and agronomic efficiency. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at better aligning the fertilizer sector with Nigeria’s long-term goals for productivity growth and food system resilience.

Year published

2025

Authors

Fasoranti, Adetunji; Kirui, Oliver K.; Popoola, Olufemi; Ali, Samuel; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi

Citation

Fasoranti, Adetunji; Kirui, Oliver K.; Popoola, Olufemi; Ali, Samuel; and Olanrewaju, Opeyemi. 2025. Bridging Nigeria’s fertilizer supply-demand gap for agricultural transformation. IFPRI Policy Note. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178596

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Fertilizers; Supply Balance; Demand; Agricultural Transformation; Nitrogen Fertilizers; Trade; Prices

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

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Working Paper

The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial

2025Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Zambrano, Patricia; Chambers, Judith A.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Popoola, Olufemi
Details

The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial

We assess the impacts of a genetically modified pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria through a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in two major cowpea-cultivating states. Our design allows us to examine the impacts of PBR cowpea with and without a package of complementary inputs (fertilizer and insecticides) and in comparison to farmers who received only a conventional improved cowpea variety. Results indicate that farmers who received and planted PBR cowpea experienced significant increases in yield (21 percent) and net margins (49 percent) compared to those growing the conventional variety, with larger gains observed among those provided with the inputs package. Analysis of heterogeneous effects indicates substantial variation in outcomes based on baseline characteristics such as household size, landholding, pest control practices, and wealth. Estimation of group average treatment effects and classification analysis using a causal machine learning approach identify plot size, pesticide use, and assets as key drivers of impact heterogeneity. Findings highlight the need for targeted dissemination strategies to realize the sizable benefits of PBR cowpea for small-scale, resource-constrained farmers.

Year published

2025

Authors

Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Zambrano, Patricia; Chambers, Judith A.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Popoola, Olufemi

Citation

Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Zambrano, Patricia; et al. 2025. The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2383. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178553

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Impact; Genetically Modified Organisms; Seed Damaging Insects; Pest Resistance; Cowpeas; Randomized Controlled Trials; Machine Learning; Smallholders; Information Dissemination; Yields; Postharvest Losses; Profitability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Working Paper

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Journal Article

Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data

2025
Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Ragasa, Catherine; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Edeh, Hyacinth O.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Haile, Beliyou; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Omoigui, Lucky O.
…more Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Kumar, P. Lava; Wossen, Tesfamicheal
Details

Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data

CONTEXT Despite the importance of enhanced seed quality to agricultural productivity growth, evidence remains scarce regarding the nature and possible drivers of returns to formal sector quality assurance systems, including certified seeds production in countries like Nigeria that focus significantly on the formal-sector seed systems. OBJECTIVE This study narrows this knowledge gap by estimating the effect of the quantity of certified seeds produced and the spatial variations where they are produced on the use of certified seeds and yields. We also assess the yield effects of certified seeds use and their relationship with agroclimatic and socioeconomic conditions. METHODS We combine nationally-representative farm-household survey panel data with spatial data on the headquarters locations of seed companies, the quantity of certified seeds for maize, cowpea, and rice that they produce, and spatially explicit agroecological data. We apply panel fixed effects methods as well as instrumental-variable methods to address potential endogeneity associated with certified seeds use while also controlling for the use of improved varieties to separate their effects from the effects of certified seeds. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that the availability of certified seeds—captured by indicators of certified seeds produced by seed companies headquartered in the states of survey respondents—is associated with positive but declining marginal effects on certified seeds use and yields. These results are robust when we also consider the potential within-state heterogeneity in the proximity to seed company headquarters, as well as potential spillovers from the nearest adjacent states. The yield effects of certified seeds are heterogeneous and depend on agroclimatic conditions and farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics. The use of certified seeds is somewhat higher in areas with higher yield effects after controlling for certified seeds production. These patterns partly lead to observed non-linearities in certified seeds use because certified seeds may be more likely to be used by farmers with higher expected returns than farmers with lower expected returns. These results underscore the importance of spatially targeted efforts in enhancing certified seeds production capacity, together with the exploration of intermediate quality standards in the short term where costs of seed certification are high relative to returns. SIGNIFICANCE The study provides unique quantitative evidence in a nationally representative framework in an African country that returns to seed certification systems in the current setting significantly vary depending on contexts, including agroclimatic conditions.

Year published

2025

Authors

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Ragasa, Catherine; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Edeh, Hyacinth O.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Haile, Beliyou; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Omoigui, Lucky O.; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Kumar, P. Lava; Wossen, Tesfamicheal

Citation

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Ragasa, Catherine; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Edeh, Hyacinth O.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Haile, Beliyou; et al. 2025. Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data. Agricultural Systems 224(March 2025): 104268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104268

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Seed Certification; Seeds; Yields; Data; Agricultural Productivity; Spatial Data; Surveys

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104268 Source record

Project

Seed Equal

Record type

Journal Article

Research

Topics/Countries