Subscribe

Back

Who we are

With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Lilia Bliznashka

Lily Bliznashka is a Research Fellow in the Nutrition, Diets, and Health Unit. Her research focuses on assessing the effectiveness of multi-input nutrition-sensitive and nutrition-specific interventions and the mechanisms through which they work to improve maternal and child health and nutrition globally. She has worked in Burkina Faso, Burundi, Tanzania, and Uganda.

Back

What we do

Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

Research topics

Projects and impact

Food Security Portal

Modeling tools

What’s new

Where we work

Back

Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 480 employees working in over 70 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

IFPRI Regional Programs

IFPRI Country and Regional Offices

Research by country and region

Subscribe

experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Emerta Aragie

Research Fellow

Follow

Emerta

at:

ORCiD

Bio

Emerta A. Aragie is a Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. He is an economist whose research focuses on computable general equilibrium based ex ante analyses of the impacts of investment and agricultural policies in developing countries on income distribution, poverty, and food security. His past research focused on evaluating the consequences of climate change on internal migration, prioritizing public investment policies, and analyzing agricultural trade. His current research focuses on Africa south of the Sahara and has involved studies on Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, and Uganda.

Before joining IFPRI in 2018, Emerta worked as an economic modeler at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). He holds a PhD in economics from Oxford Brookes University, UK.

LinkedIn

Research Gate Profile

CV

Publications

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala

2026Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; Hernandez, Manuel A.
Details

The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala

International migration affects labor supply, production patterns, and external income flows in origin countries, yet our understanding of its economy-wide and distributional consequences remains limited, particularly with regard to the role of return migration. This study integrates detailed microdata on migrant profiles into a general equilibrium model applied to Guatemala to examine how emigration and return migration affect macroeconomic performance, sectoral dynamics, and household welfare. We simulate three scenarios: a reference scenario reflecting recent-historical emigration patterns (MIG-0), a reduced-emigration scenario (MIG-1), and a net-return migration scenario (MIG-2), capturing recent shifts in emigration and return flows by skill level. Results reveal trade-offs between aggregate economic performance and distributional impacts across households. Compared to a baseline economy with no mobility, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises modestly under the reference scenario (+0.2 percent) and by additional 0.3–0.5 percentage points under the reduced-emigration and net-return scenarios, driven by expanded labor supply from returnees and currency depreciation. Non-agro-processing manufacturing shows the largest expansion (up to 1.8 percent), reflecting its strong labor-absorption potential. Household welfare, especially among remittance-dependent households, is highly sensitive to these flows, with income and consumption declining under the two counterfactual migration scenarios. These findings underscore the need for policies that facilitate returnee reintegration and strengthen social protection for remittance-dependent households, ensuring that the macroeconomic gains from migration adjustments translate into equitable welfare improvements.

Year published

2026

Authors

Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; Hernandez, Manuel A.

Citation

Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; and Hernandez, Manuel A. 2026. The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala. World Development 206(October 2026): 107450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107450

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Central America; Americas; Migration; Impact; Circular Migration; Models; Labour Market; Welfare; Households

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107450 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Gender, youth, and growth: Unpacking the productivity–transformation nexus in Rwanda

2026Aragie, Emerta A.; Escalante, Luis Enrique; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; Niyonsingiza, Josue
Details

Gender, youth, and growth: Unpacking the productivity–transformation nexus in Rwanda

The relationship between labor productivity and economic transformation, and their combined impact on labor market dynamics, remains insufficiently understood and highly country specific. This study applies an economywide analytical framework, using Rwanda as a case study, to examine how youth and women’s productivity influence economic growth and structural transformation, and how this transformation process, in turn, affects these groups. The results indicate that labor productivity gains—whether economywide or concentrated among youth—shift growth toward the industrial and service sectors, while growth in the agricultural sector is minimal. Increases in productivity of women’ labor generate more balanced growth across sectors and substantially enhance women’s industrial participation. Productivity gains of youth labor induce stronger structural shifts, as young workers move from agriculture to expanding industrial and service sectors, though this transition partially displaces adult workers. In general, labor income in these simulations rises broadly in line with GDP, with youth and women benefiting most under targeted scenarios. Sector-specific growth strategies yield distinct distributional effects, however: industry-led growth benefits women and adults, while service-led growth favors the versatile youth. Overall, productivity-driven structural transformation in Rwanda fosters welfare gains, although potential trade-offs between inclusiveness across gender and age groups and aggregate economic performance warrant further investigation. In conclusion, policy design in Rwanda should ensure that gains in aggregate economic growth are balanced with inclusive outcomes for women, youth, and adults.

Year published

2026

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Escalante, Luis Enrique; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; Niyonsingiza, Josue

Citation

Aragie, Emerta; Escalante, Luis; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; and Niyonsingiza, Josue. 2026. Gender, youth, and growth: Productivity–Transformation Nexus in Rwanda. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2415. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/182847

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Labour; Labour Productivity; Gender; Youth; Economic Growth; Transformation

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Ghana: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

2026Aragie, Emerta A.; Pauw, Karl; Jiang, Shiyun; Thurlow, James; Jones, Eleanor
Details

Ghana: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Ghana’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprints, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. In Ghana, extension in agronomy and post-harvest food loss reduction are the most cost-effective ways to improve social outcomes, including notably reducing poverty and undernourishment levels. Meanwhile, advisory services in livestock and support to small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are highly ranked in accelerating agrifood GDP and employment. Moreover, extension services for agronomy and climate, and investments in mechanization are also highly ranked. However, many of these cost-effective investments come with relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and moderately so in the presence of extreme production shocks.

Year published

2026

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Pauw, Karl; Jiang, Shiyun; Thurlow, James; Jones, Eleanor

Citation

Aragie, Emerta A.; Pauw, Karl; Jiang, Shiyun; Thurlow, James; and Jones, Eleanor. 2026. Ghana: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development. Agrifood Investment Prioritization Country Series Brief 9. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/181872

Keywords

Agrifood Systems; Development; Investment; Economic Aspects; Environmental Impact

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

Events

IFPRI @ 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

June 17 to 19, 2026

IFPRI @ 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis

The 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis will promote the exchange of ideas among economists conducting quantitative analysis of global economic issues. The conference will feature specially organized and contributed paper breakout sessions. The organized sessions have been developed by members of the GTAP Network to highlight a specific area of research and/or policy […]

How do we prioritize agrifood system policies and investments? Insights from the RIAPA modeling system
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

June 12, 2024, 10:00 – 11:00 am

How do we prioritize agrifood system policies and investments? Insights from the RIAPA modeling system

Virtual Event: June 12, 2024 at 10:00am-11:00am EDT. In this webinar, we will demonstrate how RIAPA has been used to identify priority agricultural value chains that most effectively contribute to development outcomes.

Improving evidence for better policy making in Ethiopia's livestock sector
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

June 24, 2020, 3:00 – 5:30 pm

Improving evidence for better policy making in Ethiopia’s livestock sector

In collaboration with the Livestock Systems Innovation Lab (LSIL), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has been doing collaborative work over the last 3 years with the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) and Policy Studies Institute (PSI) to study the livestock sector in Ethiopia. Analysis has been done on the consumption and markets […]

View all Events