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Eliot Jones-Garcia is a Senior Research Analyst with the Natural Resources and Resilience Unit based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on human-AI interaction, user-centered design, and the ethical and responsible development of AI. Eliot is currently finalizing a PhD on the digitalization of agricultural advisory services at Wageningen University & Research.

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Foresight and Policy Modeling

Emerta Aragie

Research Fellow

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Bio

Emerta A. Aragie is a Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. He is an economist whose research focuses on computable general equilibrium based ex ante analyses of the impacts of investment and agricultural policies in developing countries on income distribution, poverty, and food security. His past research focused on evaluating the consequences of climate change on internal migration, prioritizing public investment policies, and analyzing agricultural trade. His current research focuses on Africa south of the Sahara and has involved studies on Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, and Uganda.

Before joining IFPRI in 2018, Emerta worked as an economic modeler at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). He holds a PhD in economics from Oxford Brookes University, UK.

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Publications

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Journal Article

Modeling crop-livestock interactions in semi-subsistence economies

2026Aragie, Emerta A.; Thurlow, James
Details

Modeling crop-livestock interactions in semi-subsistence economies

Climate and weather shocks pose significant threats to crop and livestock systems, leading to economic losses and humanitarian crises. Utilizing a modeling framework that innovatively integrates the crop and livestock production systems in semi-subsistence economies, this study examines the interactions and dynamic adjustments within these systems following weather shocks, using Ethiopia as a case study. We also evaluate the effectiveness of various adaptation strategies in sustaining farm incomes, food security, and welfare. Results show unique effects on the crop and livestock sectors resulting from a joint shock on the two systems. While food crops experience a strong and immediate growth effect (12.4%) that fades quickly, the livestock sector faces the full impact of the shock a year later (13.7%), with the effect persisting to some degree. We also find diverging economic and livestock system adjustment trajectories from separate shocks to the crop and livestock systems. Further, the intervention options analyzed show contrasting impacts on various outcome indicators, with only the resilient crop intervention causing sector-indifferent impacts. Our findings emphasize the importance of proactive measures to enhance the resilience of crop-livestock systems, with implications for policy and practice aimed at safeguarding food security and livelihoods in semi-subsistence economies. JEL Classification: C68, Q18, Q54, I32, O55

Year published

2026

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Thurlow, James

Citation

Aragie, Emerta A.; and Thurlow, James. Modeling crop-livestock interactions in semi-subsistence economies. Agricultural Economics. Article in press. First published online August 11, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70065

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Climate Change; Extreme Weather Events; Integrated Crop-livestock Systems; Shock

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70065 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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Working Paper

The two sides of migration in Central America: Distributional impacts in Guatemala

2025Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; Hernandez, Manuel A.
Details

The two sides of migration in Central America: Distributional impacts in Guatemala

International migration has become a defining force shaping Guatemala’s economy, with both outflows and return inflows generating diverse impacts across economic sectors, labor markets, and household welfare. This study quantifies the economy-wide and distributional impacts of these migration dynamics using a modeling framework that integrates detailed microdata on migration profiles. Three scenarios are considered: a reference case reflecting recent-historical migration patterns (MIG-0), moderately restricted migration (MIG-1), and net return migration (MIG-2), capturing newly emerging shifts in emigration and return flows by skill level within the country. Results reveal trade-offs between aggregate economic performance and distributional impacts across households. Compared to a baseline economy with no mobility, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises modestly under the reference scenario (+0.2%) and by an additional 0.3-0.5 percentage points under the more restrictive cases, driven by higher labor availability from returnees and currency depreciation. Non-agro-processing manufacturing shows the largest expansion (up to 1.8%), reflecting its strong labor-absorption potential. Household welfare, however, is highly sensitive to remittance flows, with income and consumption declining under the restrictive scenarios. These findings underscore the need for policies that facilitate returnee reintegration and strengthen social protection for remittance-dependent households, ensuring that the macroeconomic gains from migration adjustments translate into equitable welfare improvements.

Year published

2025

Authors

Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; Hernandez, Manuel A.

Citation

Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; and Hernandez, Manuel A. 2025. The two sides of migration in Central America: Distributional impacts in Guatemala. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2387. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179008

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Central America; Migration; Models; Econometric Models; Macroeconomic Analysis; Labour Market; Welfare

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Brief

Kenya: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

2025Aragie, Emerta A.; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Jones, Eleanor
Details

Kenya: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Kenya’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors, irrigation, and seed subsidy are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Expansion in extension and advisory services for seeds and agronomy as well as improvements in seed systems also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Year published

2025

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Jones, Eleanor

Citation

Aragie, Emerta A.; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; and Jones, Eleanor. 2025. Kenya: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development. Agrifood Investment Prioritization Country Series Brief 7. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178746

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Agrifood Sector; Sustainable Development; Poverty; Nutrition; Environmental Impact; Agrifood Systems

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

Events

How do we prioritize agrifood system policies and investments? Insights from the RIAPA modeling system
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June 12, 2024, 10:00 – 11:00 am

How do we prioritize agrifood system policies and investments? Insights from the RIAPA modeling system

Virtual Event: June 12, 2024 at 10:00am-11:00am EDT. In this webinar, we will demonstrate how RIAPA has been used to identify priority agricultural value chains that most effectively contribute to development outcomes.

Improving evidence for better policy making in Ethiopia's livestock sector
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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June 24, 2020, 3:00 – 5:30 pm

Improving evidence for better policy making in Ethiopia’s livestock sector

In collaboration with the Livestock Systems Innovation Lab (LSIL), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has been doing collaborative work over the last 3 years with the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) and Policy Studies Institute (PSI) to study the livestock sector in Ethiopia. Analysis has been done on the consumption and markets […]

6th African Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

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September 23 to 26, 2019

6th African Conference of Agricultural Economists

IFPRI is participating in the the 6th African Conference of Agricultural Economists 2019 hosted by the African Association of Agricultural Economists​. The conference will explore the recent developments in agricultural systems across Africa. Key drivers of change include population growth, rapid urbanization, productivity enhancing innovation, climate change, the rise of agri-preneurship, land reform, as well as […]

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