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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics.

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Foresight and Policy Modeling

Emerta Aragie

Research Fellow

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Bio

Emerta A. Aragie is a Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. He is an economist whose research focuses on computable general equilibrium based ex ante analyses of the impacts of investment and agricultural policies in developing countries on income distribution, poverty, and food security. His past research focused on evaluating the consequences of climate change on internal migration, prioritizing public investment policies, and analyzing agricultural trade. His current research focuses on Africa south of the Sahara and has involved studies on Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, and Uganda.

Before joining IFPRI in 2018, Emerta worked as an economic modeler at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). He holds a PhD in economics from Oxford Brookes University, UK.

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Publications

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Journal Article

The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala

2026Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; Hernandez, Manuel A.
Details

The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala

International migration affects labor supply, production patterns, and external income flows in origin countries, yet our understanding of its economy-wide and distributional consequences remains limited, particularly with regard to the role of return migration. This study integrates detailed microdata on migrant profiles into a general equilibrium model applied to Guatemala to examine how emigration and return migration affect macroeconomic performance, sectoral dynamics, and household welfare. We simulate three scenarios: a reference scenario reflecting recent-historical emigration patterns (MIG-0), a reduced-emigration scenario (MIG-1), and a net-return migration scenario (MIG-2), capturing recent shifts in emigration and return flows by skill level. Results reveal trade-offs between aggregate economic performance and distributional impacts across households. Compared to a baseline economy with no mobility, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises modestly under the reference scenario (+0.2 percent) and by additional 0.3–0.5 percentage points under the reduced-emigration and net-return scenarios, driven by expanded labor supply from returnees and currency depreciation. Non-agro-processing manufacturing shows the largest expansion (up to 1.8 percent), reflecting its strong labor-absorption potential. Household welfare, especially among remittance-dependent households, is highly sensitive to these flows, with income and consumption declining under the two counterfactual migration scenarios. These findings underscore the need for policies that facilitate returnee reintegration and strengthen social protection for remittance-dependent households, ensuring that the macroeconomic gains from migration adjustments translate into equitable welfare improvements.

Year published

2026

Authors

Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; Hernandez, Manuel A.

Citation

Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; and Hernandez, Manuel A. 2026. The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala. World Development 206(October 2026): 107450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107450

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Central America; Americas; Migration; Impact; Circular Migration; Models; Labour Market; Welfare; Households

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107450 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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Working Paper

Applying foresight analysis in national agrifood system investment planning

2026Lapidus, Daniel; Rose, Amanda; Aragie, Emerta A.; Jones, Eleanor; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Cox, Micaela; Vasquez-Caballero, Smit
Details

Applying foresight analysis in national agrifood system investment planning

National governments, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, face considerable complexity in long- and midrange agrifood system development planning. These processes must translate political priorities and commitments into credible investment strategies, while coordinating across ministries, engaging diverse stakeholders, and mobilizing domestic and external financing. At the same time, planners must contend with deep uncertainty around climate change, technological change, market dynamics, and demographic and nutrition transitions, often under conditions of constrained analytical capacity and limited resources.

Year published

2026

Authors

Lapidus, Daniel; Rose, Amanda; Aragie, Emerta A.; Jones, Eleanor; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Cox, Micaela; Vasquez-Caballero, Smit

Citation

Lapidus, Daniel; Rose, Amanda; Aragie, Emerta A.; Jones, Eleanor; Pauw, Karl; et al. 2026. Applying foresight analysis in national agrifood system investment planning. IFPRI Modeling Systems Technical Paper 6. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/184056

Keywords

Agrifood Systems; Modelling; Investment; Foresight

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Conference Paper

Rethinking land use and rural livelihoods in Ethiopia’s agroecological zones

2026Aragie, Emerta A.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Thurlow, James
Details

Rethinking land use and rural livelihoods in Ethiopia’s agroecological zones

The structural characteristics of the Ethiopian economy make it particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, prompting the government to explore a range of adaptation and mitigation strategies. Land use shifts and livelihood diversification—through semi-intensive livestock systems, afforestation and tree crop development, and the pursuit of grain self-sufficiency—have been identified in policy documents as viable responses. However, the effectiveness of these strategies in achieving their intended objectives has not yet been assessed ex-ante. This study evaluates the individual and combined impacts of three key interventions: (i) shifting from traditional grain cultivation to tree crops and semi-intensive livestock farming in the degraded, drought-prone highlands; (ii) expanding commercial grain production in the moisture-reliable lowlands; and (iii) partially reallocating rural labor from agriculture to non-farm activities. The analysis examines a range of economic, social, and environmental outcome indicators and reveals significant spatial and distributional effects, with important trade-offs across sectors. Taken together, the policy shifts accelerate overall GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points and agricultural GDP by 0.3 percentage points, while also contributing to notable reductions in poverty and improvements in diet quality, particularly in rural areas. Moreover, the findings highlight the potential of these strategies to support Ethiopia’s climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives by enhancing agricultural output per unit of greenhouse gas emissions and water use.

Year published

2026

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Thurlow, James

Citation

Aragie, Emerta A.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; and Thurlow, James. 2026. Rethinking land use and rural livelihoods in Ethiopia’s agroecological zones. Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis in Kyoto, Japan, June 17-19, 2026. https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=7776

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Land Use; Rural Communities; Livelihoods; Agroecological Zones; Climate Change; Climate Change Adaptation; Rural Development; Sustainability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Conference Paper

Blogs

Double shock: El Niño and rising global commodity prices in Kenya
Issue Post
 | 
October 09, 2026

Double shock: El Niño and rising global commodity prices in Kenya

By Emerta Aragie, Shadrack Mwatu, Adan Shibia, and Chris Hillbruner

A model shows risks of rising poverty and undernourishment. Third in a series.

When more migrants stay home: Evidence from Guatemala
Research Post
 | 
July 10, 2026

When more migrants stay home: Evidence from Guatemala

By Manuel Hernandez, Luis Escalante, and Emerta Aragie

Economic impacts of shifting migration.

Events

Double exposure: How El Niño and the Iran crisis could reshape food security
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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October 8, 2026, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Double exposure: How El Niño and the Iran crisis could reshape food security

Both El Niño and the ongoing crisis in Iran threaten to disrupt the global food system and affect food prices through impacts on agricultural production, energy and fertilizer markets, and trade. National governments and international partners face pressure to respond to effects on global markets and prices, as well as the more immediate shocks to […]

IFPRI @ 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
IFPRI at External Event

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June 17 to 19, 2026

IFPRI @ 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis

The 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis will promote the exchange of ideas among economists conducting quantitative analysis of global economic issues. The conference will feature specially organized and contributed paper breakout sessions. The organized sessions have been developed by members of the GTAP Network to highlight a specific area of research and/or policy […]

How do we prioritize agrifood system policies and investments? Insights from the RIAPA modeling system
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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June 12, 2024, 10:00 – 11:00 am

How do we prioritize agrifood system policies and investments? Insights from the RIAPA modeling system

Virtual Event: June 12, 2024 at 10:00am-11:00am EDT. In this webinar, we will demonstrate how RIAPA has been used to identify priority agricultural value chains that most effectively contribute to development outcomes.

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