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Kinya Kaibung’a

Kinya Kaibung’a is a Research Officer with the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in Nairobi, Kenya. She has a keen interest in leveraging machine learning, AI, and other cutting-edge technologies to boost climate resilience and food security in smart agriculture systems.

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Development Strategies and Governance

Serge Mugabo

Senior Research Associate

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Bio

Serge Mugabo is a Senior Research Associate in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in Kigali, where he provides analytical support to the IFPRI Rwanda Strategy Support Program (RSSP). He contributes to research on prioritizing agricultural transformation, increasing agricultural productivity, improving nutrition, and strengthening food systems and the rural non-farm economy as well as fostering broad-based economic growth and development in Rwanda. Before joining the IFPRI Rwanda team, Serge worked for the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) as an Economic Studies and Research Statistician mainly focusing on poverty analysis. Serge holds a master’s degree in Mathematical Sciences from the African Institute of Mathematical Science (AIMS) in Senegal and a bachelor’s degree in Engineering in Statistics Applied to Economy from INES–Ruhengeri, in Rwanda.

Publications

Publications

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Working Paper

Can local procurement for food aid foster market development? Evidence from indirect conditional contracting in Uganda

2026Abate, Gashaw T.; Mugabo, Serge; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Van Campenhout, Bjorn
Details

Can local procurement for food aid foster market development? Evidence from indirect conditional contracting in Uganda

Smallholder farmers in low-income countries often operate in fragmented markets characterized by volatile prices, weak bargaining power, and limited incentives to invest in productivity and quality. Large institutional buyers procuring locally can reshape these conditions by creating structured demand and embedding sourcing requirements in contracts with intermediaries, potentially transmitting incentives upstream to farmers. This study evaluates a maize procurement policy introduced in 2021 by a major institutional buyer in Uganda that required its large trader-aggregator suppliers to source at least 20 percent of deliveries directly from smallholder farmers through “indirect conditional contracting.” Using survey data collected in 2024 from nearly 1,300 smallholder farmers and nearly 300 aggregators across six districts, we estimate effects on prices, technology adoption, quality upgrading, welfare, and resilience. Intent-to-treat (ITT) estimates show that residing in areas where the major buyer operates is associated with 5–6 percent higher farmgate prices on average, with instrumental variable (IV) estimates suggesting upper bound premiums of up to 45 percent. Farmers in the conditional contract group earn positive net returns and increase adoption of improved inputs and postharvest practices. Intermediary aggregators receive about 7 (ITT) to 30 (IV) percent lower selling prices but increase adoption of postharvest quality practices. Mediation analysis indicates that gains for farmers arise primarily through increased competition between intermediaries. However, downstream welfare outcomes remain inconclusive, with suggestive evidence that non-participating farmers in treatment areas may face lower prices due to market segmentation. Overall, our findings show that indirect conditional contracts can reshape value chain incentives by attracting intermediaries, increasing competition, and stimulating upstream investment, even as they generate uneven distributional effects.

Year published

2026

Authors

Abate, Gashaw T.; Mugabo, Serge; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Van Campenhout, Bjorn

Citation

Abate, Gashaw T.; Mugabo, Serge; Raghunathan, Kalyani; and Van Campenhout, Bjorn. 2026. Can local procurement for food aid foster market development? Evidence from indirect conditional contracting in Uganda. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2423. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183400

Country/Region

Uganda

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Food Aid; Smallholders; Value Chains; Food Assistance; Maize; Markets

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Journal Article

Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda

2025Spielman, David J.; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie; Ndikumana, Sosthene; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Ingabire, Chantal
Details

Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda

Fertilizer subsidies are a prominent feature of many agricultural development strategies in sub-Saharan Africa, but few countries have the necessary data to make rapid decisions about their management in the face of exogenous shocks. This was the case in Rwanda following the rapid increase in international fertilizer prices in 2021–22. Working within a constrained fiscal space that followed the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Rwanda aimed to revise its fertilizer subsidy system to accommodate higher fertilizer import prices without compromising progress against its agricultural growth targets. This paper explores both the economic analysis and policy process that shaped decision-making around Rwanda’s fertilizer subsidy system during the period 2020–23. The paper centers on the design and application of a microsimulation model that estimated—almost in real time—the impact of increased fertilizer prices on crop production during this period. It then explores the policy outcomes that followed, emphasizing the scope for subsidy reductions even in the midst of crisis, the critical importance of strengthening agricultural data systems, and lessons for countries facing similar challenges.

Year published

2025

Authors

Spielman, David J.; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie; Ndikumana, Sosthene; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Ingabire, Chantal

Citation

Spielman, David J.; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie; Ndikumana, Sosthene; Benimana, Gilberthe; and Ingabire, Chantal. 2025. Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda. Food Policy 133(May 2025): 102823. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102823

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Fertilizers; Reforms; Subsidies; Data; Shock; Agricultural Development

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102823 Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Journal Article

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Conditional contracts in indirect local procurement of maize from smallholder farmers in Uganda: A study design to assess impacts

2025Raghunathan, Kalyani; Abate, Gashaw T.; Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Nabwire, Leocardia; Mukangabo, Emerence; Mugabo, Serge; Benin, Samuel
Details

Conditional contracts in indirect local procurement of maize from smallholder farmers in Uganda: A study design to assess impacts

Improving smallholder farmers’ access to reliable markets can have significant impacts on their wellbeing, income, poverty reduction, dietary diversity, and rural economic growth. As the choice of marketing channels may influence outcomes differently depending on the context, a key issue is understanding the effectiveness of different marketing instruments. One such modality is a conditional contract between a buyer and the traders supplying it. Such a contract requires traders to source a certain percentage of their supplies directly from smallholder farmers. This raises the question of whether conditional contracts create access to reliable markets for smallholder farmers, result in value chain transformation, and sustain market engagement between traders and smallholder farmers.

Year published

2025

Authors

Raghunathan, Kalyani; Abate, Gashaw T.; Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Nabwire, Leocardia; Mukangabo, Emerence; Mugabo, Serge; Benin, Samuel

Citation

Raghunathan, Kalyani; Abate, Gashaw T.; Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Nabwire, Leocardia; Mukangabo, Emerence; Mugabo, Serge; and Benin, Samuel. 2025. Conditional contracts in indirect local procurement of maize from smallholder farmers in Uganda: A study design to assess impacts. SFS4Youth Project Note 2. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/172818

Country/Region

Uganda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Contracts; Maize; Smallholders; Value Chains

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

Blogs

Shaping strategies for Rwanda’s agricultural transformation
Issue Post
 | 
June 30, 2025

Shaping strategies for Rwanda’s agricultural transformation

By Maria DiGiovanni, James Warner, and Serge Mugabo

Rwanda’s agricultural transformation, guided by its Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA), showcases how evidence-based strategies—supported by IFPRI—can drive inclusive, sustainable growth by aligning economic, social, and environmental goals through coordinated action and investment.