Serge Mugabo

Can local procurement for food aid foster market development? Evidence from indirect conditional contracting in Uganda

Smallholder farmers in low-income countries often operate in fragmented markets characterized by volatile prices, weak bargaining power, and limited incentives to invest in productivity and quality. Large institutional buyers procuring locally can reshape these conditions by creating structured demand and embedding sourcing requirements in contracts with intermediaries, potentially transmitting incentives upstream to farmers. This study evaluates a maize procurement policy introduced in 2021 by a major institutional buyer in Uganda that required its large trader-aggregator suppliers to source at least 20 percent of deliveries directly from smallholder farmers through “indirect conditional contracting.” Using survey data collected in 2024 from nearly 1,300 smallholder farmers and nearly 300 aggregators across six districts, we estimate effects on prices, technology adoption, quality upgrading, welfare, and resilience. Intent-to-treat (ITT) estimates show that residing in areas where the major buyer operates is associated with 5–6 percent higher farmgate prices on average, with instrumental variable (IV) estimates suggesting upper bound premiums of up to 45 percent. Farmers in the conditional contract group earn positive net returns and increase adoption of improved inputs and postharvest practices. Intermediary aggregators receive about 7 (ITT) to 30 (IV) percent lower selling prices but increase adoption of postharvest quality practices. Mediation analysis indicates that gains for farmers arise primarily through increased competition between intermediaries. However, downstream welfare outcomes remain inconclusive, with suggestive evidence that non-participating farmers in treatment areas may face lower prices due to market segmentation. Overall, our findings show that indirect conditional contracts can reshape value chain incentives by attracting intermediaries, increasing competition, and stimulating upstream investment, even as they generate uneven distributional effects.

Shaping strategies for Rwanda’s agricultural transformation

Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda

Fertilizer subsidies are a prominent feature of many agricultural development strategies in sub-Saharan Africa, but few countries have the necessary data to make rapid decisions about their management in the face of exogenous shocks. This was the case in Rwanda following the rapid increase in international fertilizer prices in 2021–22. Working within a constrained fiscal space that followed the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Rwanda aimed to revise its fertilizer subsidy system to accommodate higher fertilizer import prices without compromising progress against its agricultural growth targets. This paper explores both the economic analysis and policy process that shaped decision-making around Rwanda’s fertilizer subsidy system during the period 2020–23. The paper centers on the design and application of a microsimulation model that estimated—almost in real time—the impact of increased fertilizer prices on crop production during this period. It then explores the policy outcomes that followed, emphasizing the scope for subsidy reductions even in the midst of crisis, the critical importance of strengthening agricultural data systems, and lessons for countries facing similar challenges.