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Kinya Kaibung’a

Kinya Kaibung’a is a Research Officer with the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in Nairobi, Kenya. She has a keen interest in leveraging machine learning, AI, and other cutting-edge technologies to boost climate resilience and food security in smart agriculture systems.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Angga Pradesha

Senior Scientist

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Bio

Angga Pradesha is a Senior Scientist in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research interests center around the application of economywide models on issues related to international trade, climate change, natural resources, poverty, and food security. Prior to joining IFPRI, he worked as a Research Associate at the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) in Tokyo. He received a master’s degree in International Development from the International University of Japan and a master’s degree in Applied Economics from the International Islamic University of Malaysia. He completed his bachelor’s degree in Agricultural and Resource Economics at Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia.

Publications

Publications

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Working Paper

Regional implications of public investments and external shocks in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis

2025Dorosh, Paul A.; Fang, Peixun; Pradesha, Angga
Details

Regional implications of public investments and external shocks in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis

Improvements in telecommunications have enabled a tremendous increase in the flow of information across Papua New Guinea. Although transport costs remain high between various parts of the main island of Papua New Guinea, as well as between the main island and other parts of the country (e.g. the islands of New Britain and Bougainville to the East), phone and internet conditions enable government, traders and entrepreneurs to share market information that reduces transactions costs and improves market function. Nonetheless, there remain major differences in agricultural production, income sources and demand patterns across regions that are important to take into account in analyzing the impacts of external shocks and formulating development strategies. Earlier work on PNG by Schmidt et al., (2021) explored the effects of Covid-related income and world rice price shocks with a partial equilibrium model of PNG’s rice economy. Diao et al., (2021) used a regional multi-market model to analyze broader effects of Covid-19 and other shocks to agriculture and household incomes in four regions of PNG. Various other studies, including Dorosh and Pradesha (2022) and Diao et al. (2024), used national computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of PNG to analyze exchange rate, terms of trade, and productivity shocks on various household groups. In this paper, we extend these earlier analyses through use of a new regional CGE model that utilizes recent household survey data, including the 2023 IFPRI PNG rural household survey. The plan of this paper is as follows. The next section provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last decade, highlighting the almost constant share of agriculture in GDP and very low per capita agricultural GDP growth rate. Section 3 describes the regional disaggregation of the PNG economy and the structure of household incomes and expenditure as reflected in the economywide database, the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), used in this analysis. Section 4 then presents a summary of the regional economywide model. (Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper.) Design of the model simulations and simulation results covering investments in agriculture and transport sectors, as well as world price shocks are discussed in Section 5. Chapter 6 concludes with a summary of the main findings and policy implications, as well as suggested areas for further work.

Year published

2025

Authors

Dorosh, Paul A.; Fang, Peixun; Pradesha, Angga

Citation

Dorosh, Paul A.; Fang, Peixun; and Pradesha, Angga. 2025. Regional implications of public investments and external shocks in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis. Papua New Guinea Food Policy Strengthening Working Paper 8. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178296

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Public Investment; Shock; Agriculture; Models; Agricultural Production

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Implications of exchange rate overvaluation and world price shocks for PNG

2025Dorosh, Paul A.; Pradesha, Angga
Details

Implications of exchange rate overvaluation and world price shocks for PNG

The large inflow of foreign capital to fund PNG investments in natural gas pipeline and processing infrastructure resulted in a surge in inflation beginning in 2011. Costs of production of tradable goods such as coffee and palm oil rose more (in kina terms) than their output prices, reducing the profitability of these sectors. These price distortions have continued to the present day, as restrictions on access to foreign exchange (mainly through delays in the release of funds) as demand for foreign exchange exceeds supply made available to the public. This policy note reviews PNG’s exchange rate policies and uses an economy-wide simulation model1 to quantify the impacts of these distortions. We conclude with a discussion of policy implications, highlighting the effects of a possible devaluation / depreciation of the kina.

Year published

2025

Authors

Dorosh, Paul A.; Pradesha, Angga

Citation

Dorosh, Paul; and Pradesha, Angga. 2025. Implications of exchange rate overvaluation and world price shocks for PNG. Papua New Guinea Project Note 21. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176217

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Capital; Exchange Rate; Policies; Prices; Valuation; Value Chains; Value Chain

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

Achieving transformational sustainable land Intensification: Integrated general equilibrium and portfolio analysis for Senegal

2025Pradesha, Angga; Siddig, Khalid; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
Details

Achieving transformational sustainable land Intensification: Integrated general equilibrium and portfolio analysis for Senegal

Feeding a growing global population while conserving natural resources remains a central challenge of Sustainable Intensification (SI). Despite decades of SI efforts, cropland expansion in many developing countries continues to accelerate, contributing to deforestation and biodiversity loss. Even with observed increases in crop yields, studies suggest that farmers continue to expand cropland, underscoring the need to consider market dynamics and the economywide effects of productivity gains. This study offers a new perspective on achieving transformational sustainable land intensification by treating farming activities as investment decisions shaped by risk and return under production and markets uncertainties. Unlike the traditional SI strategies that focus on efficiency gains through improved inputs or agronomic practices, we apply an optimal portfolio analysis to cropland allocation, aiming to enhance farming efficiency by considering market interconnections across sectors. Using Senegal as a case study, we demonstrate that adopting an optimal diversification strategy on new cropland investment could reduce land expansion needs by up to 68 % by 2030. This strategy not only helps mitigate emissions and reduce water footprint but also enhances crop biodiversity. Socioeconomic and environmental benefits are found to be greater when the country promotes high-value crops in its portfolio, such as fruits and vegetables, compared to grain crops. Our findings also contribute to ongoing debates around land-sparing versus land-sharing strategies and offer new insights into the drivers of cropland expansion in light of current global land use patterns.

Year published

2025

Authors

Pradesha, Angga; Siddig, Khalid; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James

Citation

Pradesha, Angga; Siddig, Khalid; Pauw, Karl; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Achieving transformational sustainable land Intensification: Integrated general equilibrium and portfolio analysis for Senegal. Journal of Cleaner Production 519(10 August 2025): 145929. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.145929

Country/Region

Senegal

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Sustainable Intensification; Farmland; Land Allocation; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Modelling; Sustainability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.145929 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

Events

Informing Economic Growth and Food Security Opportunities in Papua New Guinea
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

March 21, 2025, 9:00 – 5:30 pm

Informing Economic Growth and Food Security Opportunities in Papua New Guinea

The International Food Policy Research Institute, in collaboration with Department of Prime Minister and National Executive Council, Department of Agriculture and Livestock, Department of Health and the Department of National Planning and Monitoring, will host a research seminar on “Informing Economic Growth and Food Security Opportunities in Papua New Guinea”, on March 21st, 2025. As […]

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

August 2 to 7, 2024

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists

The triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE-2024), centred on the theme “Transformation Towards Sustainable Agri-Food Systems” is scheduled from August 2-7, 2024, in New Delhi, India. The conference offers a distinctive platform, providing a golden opportunity for the agricultural academic institutions and researchers to convene in person, exchange knowledge, and actively contribute to the […]

Tropentag 2023
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

September 20 to 22, 2023

Tropentag 2023

Event: September 20, 2023 – 8:30 AM to September 22, 2023 – 6:10 PM CEST. IFPRI is participating and will be featured in this years’ annual interdisciplinary conference on research in tropical and subtropical agriculture, natural resource management and rural development (TROPENTAG).

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News

June 23, 2025 | Press Release

New study proposes smarter cropland allocation to support sustainable agricultural intensification in Senegal

The study explores how farmers’ land-use decisions can be guided by the relative risks and returns of different crops—similar to how financial investments are managed.

April 25, 2018 | Press Release

Philippines could supplement 57-60 percent of its energy needs with renewables by 2040

The Philippines could supplement 57-60 percent of its energy needs with renewables by 2040, according to a new study from researchers at IFPRI.

April 24, 2018 | In the News

Perks to boost RE share in energy mix (Business Insight)

Business Insight Philippines published an article on recent findings of IFPRI researchers, on the prospects of energy diversification in the Philippines.

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