IFPRI Publications: Journal Articles

Economic and food security impacts of climate disasters and mitigation policies: Insights from Nigeria

Effect of intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine on maternal gestational weight gain in low-income and middle-income countries: A systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials

Background Studies have consistently demonstrated beneficial effects of intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy (IPTp) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) on reducing malaria infection and improving birth outcomes among pregnant women in endemic areas. However, data on its impact on maternal gestational weight gain (GWG) are very limited. We aimed to conduct a two-stage meta-analysis of individual participant data to examine the effect of IPT with SP on GWG compared to other antimalarial regimens. Methods In this systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis, we conducted electronic literature searches of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library to identify eligible RCTs among pregnant women. We did not apply any language or publication date restrictions in the search. The initial search was conducted on August 4th, 2021, and updated on February 15th, 2025. The study-level inclusion criteria were as follow: 1) the studies must be randomised controlled trials (RCTs), which could be individually randomised, cluster randomised, or a combination of both; 2) study participants were pregnant at enrollment or enrolled before pregnancy and followed up in pregnancy; 3) studies were conducted in a low-income, lower-middle-income, or upper-middle-income economy defined by the World Bank country classification for the 2021 fiscal year; 4) antimalaria and/or antibiotic interventions were provided during pregnancy; and 5) the intervention was provided alone or in combination with a co-intervention that was similar across arms. Since we focused on the intervention’s effect on GWG in generally healthy pregnant women, we applied the following study-level exclusion criteria: 1) studies without any measures of maternal weight during pregnancy; and 2) studies conducted exclusively among women with pre-existing health conditions, such as anemia, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, or diabetes. Within each eligible trial, we further applied individual-level criteria to identify eligible individual participants, including 1) singleton pregnancies, 2) at least one weight measurement in the second or third trimesters, 3) known gestational ages at the time of weight measurements, and 4) availability of maternal height measure. Risk of bias for each trial was assessed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool, version 2 (RoB 2). GWG percent adequacy (%) and total weight gain (gram) at delivery were calculated according to the Institute of Medicine 2009 guidelines. Linear regression models were used to estimate mean difference (MD) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in GWG percent adequacy and total weight gain across intervention arms. Results from individual trials were pooled using fixed-effects inverse-variance meta-analysis models. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42023428794. Findings A total of 97 trials were identified in the search and sough for IPD, of them eight trials including 8550 pregnant women were included in the current analysis. Women who received IPTp with only 2 doses of SP had a greater GWG percent adequacy (MD: 5.61%; 95% CI: 2.61%, 8.60%; P = 0.0002; I2 = 84.26%), and total GWG in grams at delivery (MD: 702; 95% CI: 321, 1083; P = 0.0003; I2 = 83.78%) than those who received weekly chloroquine as prophylaxis. No significant differences in GWG percent adequacy (MD: −0.53%; 95% CI: −2.89%%, 1.83%; P = 0.66; I2 = 0.00%) or GWG grams (MD: −80; 95% CI: −380, 221; P = 0.60; I2 = 0.00%) were found between IPTp with 2-dose SP and monthly IPTp-SP (3-dose or more). Compared to women who received monthly IPTp-SP, those who received monthly IPTp with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (IPTp-DHA + PPQ) had a lower GWG percent adequacy (MD: −5.56%; 95% CI: −8.22%, −2.90%; P < 0.0001; I2 = 13.47%) and total GWG in grams (MD: −723; 95% CI: −1037, −410; P < 0.0001; I2 = 46.29%). Adding azithromycin to an antimalarial regimen was associated with a greater GWG percent adequacy (MD: 2.75%; 95% CI: 0.46%, 5.05%; P = 0.19; I2 = 0.00%) and total GWG in gram at delivery (MD: 485; 95% CI: 210, 760; P = 0.0005; I2 = 75.66%). Interpretation Our findings suggest that monthly IPTp-SP has superior effect on GWG compared to weekly chloroquine or IPTp-DHA + PPQ in malaria-endemic areas. The result provides further evidence indicating that IPTp-SP improves maternal weight gain, an important determinant of fetal growth beyond its antimalarial effects. Due to the limited number of trials with weight and height measures available for the IPD meta-analysis we were likely underpowered to detect any significant difference between 2-dose SP and monthly IPTp-SP. More efforts are warranted to examine the potential beneficial effect of adding azithromycin or DHA + PPQ to the standard antimalarial regimens.

Urbanization shapes West African diets throughout the rural-urban continuum

Our understanding of how urbanization interacts with food consumption has been hindered by the lack of a unified definition of what constitutes an “urban” area. The use of a binary designation also fails to capture the complexity and diversity of settlement types and results in a focus on the “rural-urban divide”. This study combines nationally representative survey data on household food consumption from eight West African countries with geospatial data capturing the urbanization gradient following the global definition of the Degree or Urbanization. This allows us to analyse consumption of different food groups, diet quality, and macronutrient intakes throughout the rural-urban continuum. We find robust evidence of an increasing rural-urban gradient in total food consumption, as well as a gradual shift away from traditional staple foods, towards increased consumption of foods that require less or no preparation. Residing in more urbanized areas is associated with greater diet diversity and increased consumption of vegetables and animal-source foods. Yet, rising intakes of unhealthy foods and fats in particular along the rural-urban continuum contribute to a deterioration of diet quality. While the estimated effects are strongest in cities, these diet transitions also take place in peri-urban areas and rural areas. This confirms the importance of moving beyond a simple rural-urban dichotomy in research and policy related to food consumption. The demonstrated importance of foods eaten away from home across the entire rural-urban continuum further underscores the need for more research to better understand this sector and explore how it can contribute to both employment and food security.

Biological control protects carbon sequestration capacity of plantation forests

In many natural and managed forest and tree systems, pest attacks and related dieback events have become a matter of increasing global concern. Although these attacks modify the carbon balance of tree systems, their contribution to climate forcing and the relative impact of nature-based mitigation measures is seldom considered. Here, we assess the extent to which biological control protects or reconstitutes carbon sequestration capacity and storage in monoculture tree plantations globally. Specifically, we draw upon field-level assessments, niche modeling and forest carbon flux maps to quantify potential risk of carbon sequestration loss due to three globally important insect herbivores of pine and eucalyptus. Specifically, herbivory by the tree-feeding insects Sirex noctilio, Leptocybe invasa and Ophelimus maskelli conservatively reduces carbon sink capacity by up to 0.96–4.86% at the country level. For a subset of 30, 11 and nine tree-growing countries, this potentially compromises a respective 4.02%, 0.80% and 0.79% of the carbon sink capacity of their tree hosts. Yet, in the invasive range, released biological control agents can help regain lost sink capacity to considerable extent. Equally, across both the S. noctilio native and invasive range, carbon sequestration capacity is protected by resident biota to the tune of (max.) 0.28–0.39 tons of CO2 equivalent per hectare per year. Our exploratory valuation of pest-induced sequestration losses and their biodiversity-driven mitigation informs climate policy, biosecurity, and management practice.

Improving practices at Bangladesh’s brick kilns: A win-win for business and the environment

Maize yield responsiveness and profitability of fertilizer: New survey evidence from six African countries

Enhancing maize productivity growth is pivotal for revolutionizing the agrifood system in Africa, with inorganic fertilizer serving as a fundamental input for catalyzing this progress. However, concerns are mounting about the low and decreasing yield response and profitability of inorganic fertilizer use, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study aims to refine yield response and profitability models by incorporating recent data from nationally representative and panel datasets spanning six countries. Most countries exhibited low nitrogen yield responsiveness (4–7 kg), while Ghana and Uganda showed higher responsiveness (15–20 kg) per additional 1 kg of nitrogen. Analysis of fertilizer-to-maize price ratios from 2010 to 2023 showed a downward trend, with spikes in 2022 in Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Overall, except for those years, the data suggest a trend of increasingly favorable price incentives for fertilizer use. Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda experienced declines in the fertilizer-to-maize price ratio. Increasing inorganic fertilizer use would be profitable in Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Uganda at current market prices, but not in Malawi or Tanzania. Subsidies in Malawi and Tanzania have boosted profitability, but these may not be necessary in Ghana, Nigeria, or Uganda, which already have favorable price incentives; Malawi could benefit by substantially reducing its 80 percent subsidy while maintaining decent price incentives and farm profits. The paper proposes policy options based on factors influencing yield responsiveness and potential improvements drawn from new modeling and synthesis of the literature.

Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability

During 2021–2022, spiking fertilizer prices raised fears that fertilizer application would drop around the world, leading to lower crop production, higher food prices, and greater food insecurity. Even writing mid-2024, a paucity of data impedes a full assessment of how the underlying global market shocks may have affected farmers and food production around the world. Using proxy indicators for fertilizer demand and farm profitability, we find that despite the steep increase in input costs, global demand for fertilizer fell only modestly during the 2022–2023 crop cycle, suggesting many (commercial) farmers were able and willing to absorb increased input costs in the context of generally good harvest prospects and, at the time, high crop prices. However, we also find the fertilizer price spikes have not been felt equally, with many farmers in Africa estimated to have been affected more adversely, even though with varied impacts also amongst those farmers.

Estimating the direct and indirect effects of improved seed adoption on yields: Evidence from DNA-fingerprinting, crop cuts, and self-reporting in Ethiopia

Farmers’ adoption of improved crop varieties could increase yields in low-income countries. However, the presence of measurement error in household surveys poses a challenge to estimating true returns. Using the 2018/19 Ethiopia Socio-economic Survey, we analyze the impacts of how three sources of measurement error: misperceptions of seed varieties, land area, and quantities harvested affect maize yields and input use. These data include DNA-fingerprinting of seed, GPS plot size information, and crop cuts that we compare to farmers’ self-reported estimates of these measures. Results indicate that the measurement error in self-reported seed variety adoption, especially from farmers who did not know they were using improved maize varieties, attenuates their estimated yield gains by 25 percentage points on average. The enhanced genetics of improved seed varieties accounts for a 41-percentage point yield increase over non-improved varieties, and increased input use accounts for a 30-percentage point gain for improved varieties on average. JEL classification: D13, O13, N57, Q12, Q16

Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar

The number of farmers residing in fragile and conflict-affected countries is rising globally, yet the impacts of conflict on the economics of inorganic fertilizer in these settings remain poorly understood. We study how conflicts in Myanmar, combined with global fertilizer market disruptions, have affected inorganic fertilizer prices, use, response, and efficiency. We utilize unique nationally representative household panel survey data and a comprehensive approach that employs various analytical methods to examine the nexus between conflicts and fertilizer-related issues. Our findings reveal that greater intensity of violent events is associated with higher prices of major types of inorganic fertilizer, particularly in areas farther from major import locations. These price changes and increases in violent events have suppressed both the likelihood and quantity of inorganic fertilizer usage, leading to decreased rice yield responses at given nitrogen application levels. Panel stochastic frontier analyses, combined with a method addressing the endogeneity of inorganic fertilizer use, suggest a significant decline in fertilizer use efficiency each year since the onset of conflict. The increase in violent events is also associated with the reduced use of extension services, seeds from markets, irrigation, and optimal fertilizer blends, which may partly explain the diminished returns and efficiency of inorganic fertilizer use. Conflict therefore seems to be associated with a change in the economics of inorganic fertilizer use through various impact channels, affecting agricultural performance in these fragile and conflict-affected settings.

Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda

Fertilizer subsidies are a prominent feature of many agricultural development strategies in sub-Saharan Africa, but few countries have the necessary data to make rapid decisions about their management in the face of exogenous shocks. This was the case in Rwanda following the rapid increase in international fertilizer prices in 2021–22. Working within a constrained fiscal space that followed the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Rwanda aimed to revise its fertilizer subsidy system to accommodate higher fertilizer import prices without compromising progress against its agricultural growth targets. This paper explores both the economic analysis and policy process that shaped decision-making around Rwanda’s fertilizer subsidy system during the period 2020–23. The paper centers on the design and application of a microsimulation model that estimated—almost in real time—the impact of increased fertilizer prices on crop production during this period. It then explores the policy outcomes that followed, emphasizing the scope for subsidy reductions even in the midst of crisis, the critical importance of strengthening agricultural data systems, and lessons for countries facing similar challenges.

Storage management practices and mycotoxin contamination of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) in northwest Ethiopia

Mycotoxins are toxic metabolites produced by certain fungal species that affect animal and human health. Data on the relationships between specific traditional storage management practices of sorghum and mycotoxin contamination are rarely available in Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to investigate current sorghum storage management practices in major sorghum producer locations in Northwest Ethiopia and their relationships with mycotoxin contamination. Sorghum storage management practices of 120 farmers were surveyed, the occurrence of multiple mycotoxins in samples from their stored sorghum was determined, and potential relationships between the traditional storage management practices and mycotoxin contamination were analyzed. Samples were analyzed using UPLC-MS/MS for 33 different mycotoxins. About 88% of the samples were contaminated with at least one mycotoxin. The detected mycotoxins belong to one of the four mycotoxin categories, produced by Aspergillus spp, Fusarium spp, Penicillium spp, and Alternaria spp. From the total, 3%, 7%, and 3% of the samples were contaminated with aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, and zearalenone, respectively, above the EU regulatory limits. The measured concentrations that bypassed EU regulatory limits were 9.14, 18.34 and 29.13 (μg/kg) for total aflatoxins, 5.31, 12.50, 14.94, 15.77, 32.94, 56.81, 58.07 and 112.59 (μg/kg) for Ochratoxin A, and 123.48, 238.43 and 431.78 (μg/kg) for Zearalenone, respectively. Logistic regression showed relationships between the traditional storage management practices with mycotoxin contamination. The age and the experience of the Main Person Responsible for Storage management (MPRS), the placement of the storage structure, and the insecticide application showed negative relationships with multi-mycotoxin contamination. On the other hand, the educational status of the MPRS and the type of storage structure showed positive relationships with mycotoxin contamination. Therefore, it is recommended that farmers receive training in proper sorghum storage management to further reduce the mycotoxin contamination in the grain.

Psychometric properties of early childhood development assessment tools in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Objective Valid and reliable measurement of early childhood development (ECD) is critical for monitoring and evaluating ECD-related policies and programmes. Although ECD tools developed in high-income countries may be applicable to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), directly applying them in LMICs can be problematic without psychometric evidence for new cultures and contexts. Our objective was to systematically appraise available evidence on the psychometric properties of tools used to measure ECD in LMIC. Design A systematic review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Data sources MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, PsycInfo, SciELO and BVS were searched from inception to February 2025. Eligibility criteria We included studies that examined the reliability, validity, and measurement invariance of tools assessing ECD in children 0–6 years of age living in LMICs. Data extraction and synthesis Each study was independently screened by two researchers and data extracted by one randomly assigned researcher. Risk of bias was assessed using a checklist developed by the study team assessing bias due to training/administration, selective reporting and missing data. Results were synthesised narratively by country, location, age group at assessment and developmental domain. Results A total of 160 articles covering 117 tools met inclusion criteria. Most reported psychometric properties were internal consistency reliability (n=117, 64%), concurrent validity (n=81, 45%), convergent validity (n=74, 41%), test–retest reliability (n=73, 40%) and structural validity (n=72, 40%). Measurement invariance was least commonly reported (n=16, 9%). Most articles came from Brazil, China, India and South Africa. Most psychometric evidence was from urban (n=92, 51%) or urban–rural (n=41, 23%) contexts. Study samples focused on children aged 6–17.9 or 48–59.9 months. The most assessed developmental domains were language (n=111, 61%), motor (n=104, 57%) and cognitive (n=82, 45%). Bias due to missing data was most common. Conclusions Psychometric evidence is fragmented, limited and heterogeneous. More rigorous psychometric analyses, especially on measurement invariance, are needed to establish the quality and accuracy of ECD tools for use in LMICs.

Reducing emissions and air pollution from informal brick kilns: Evidence from Bangladesh

INTRODUCTION In many low- and middle-income countries, it is commonly believed that weak state and regulatory capacities limit the ability to reduce pollution and mitigate climate impact. In Bangladesh and across South Asia, most brick manufacturing takes place in informal, traditional coal-fired kilns. These kilns are among the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, leading to an enormous public health burden. RATIONALE In Bangladesh, efforts to improve the brick kiln industry over the past 30 years have had limited success. Our past work suggests that a correctly operated zigzag kiln (a traditional kiln type that accounts for 81% of the sector) can not only improve efficiency but also increase kiln profits. However, most zigzag kilns in Bangladesh are incorrectly operated, leaving these social and private benefits unrealized. Improving energy efficiency presents an alternative strategy to reduce emissions and pollution while also delivering productivity gains. RESULTS We developed a low-cost intervention to improve the energy efficiency of zigzag kilns and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of the intervention among 276 kilns in Bangladesh. Our study included a control arm and two intervention arms (a “technical” arm and a “technical+incentive information” arm). All kilns assigned to both intervention arms received information, training, and technical support to adopt operational improvements that improve fuel combustion and reduce heat loss in the kilns. These improvements specifically targeted how coal is fed during the firing process and how bricks are stacked inside the kiln, along with several other aspects of operation. Kilns assigned to the “technical+incentive information” arm also received explicit information regarding the business rationale for incentivizing workers to adhere to the new practices. There was high demand for the intervention, with 65% of intervention kilns adopting the intervention’s recommended firing and stacking practices. Notably, 20% of control kilns also adopted these practices, bolstering the interpretation that demand was high. There were no differences in adoption between the two intervention arms and no use of incentives or benefits in the “technical+incentive information” arm. We studied the intention-to-treat (ITT) effect of random assignment to the intervention, as well as the impact of the intervention after adjusting for compliance using an instrumental variables (IV) framework. Among compliers, the intervention led to substantial reductions in the amount of energy used to fire bricks (23%) and corresponding reductions in carbon dioxide (20%) and particulate matter with a diameter of <2.5 µm (20%). These gains were achieved without any evidence of a rebound in energy demand. Kiln owners also benefited financially from the intervention; production of the highest quality category of bricks increased in intervention kilns and spending on fuel per brick declined. The primary costs of the RCT were the training costs and technical support costs throughout the season. Using a social cost of carbon of 185 USD per metric ton to value the reductions in CO2 emissions, we find the benefits of the intervention outweighed the costs by a factor of 65 to 1, and that these reductions were achieved at an average cost of 2.85 USD per ton. CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrates that meaningful reductions in emissions by traditional kilns are achievable, even in the absence of stronger regulations, if they can be made financially attractive to private kiln owners.

How good are livestock statistics in Africa? Can nudging and direct counting improve the quality of livestock asset data?

Livestock statistics in most low- and middle-income countries rely on self-reported, survey-based measures. However, respondents may have various challenges to accurately report livestock ownership. This study introduces a novel set of survey and measurement experiments to improve livestock statistics in Africa. We introduce two innovations to conventional livestock data collection methods. First, we address some of the sources of potential underreporting in livestock assets by introducing an explicit nudge to a random subset of survey respondents. Second, we arrange for direct counting of livestock assets by enumerators and local livestock experts. We demonstrate that self-reported data on livestock ownership suffer from significant and systematic underreporting. While our nudge affects only the reporting behaviour of households with larger stocks of livestock, direct counting increases total livestock ownership by 39 percent and the reported number of cattle by 43 percent. These impacts are evident at both the extensive and intensive margins of livestock asset ownership, as well as considering the number and value of livestock assets owned. Such mismeasurement in self-reported livestock data can lead to underestimation of the contribution of the livestock sector to national economies. Furthermore, direct counting generates important spillover effects to livestock species not explicitly counted in the survey. We finally show that underreporting in self-reported livestock data is systematic and hence consequential for statistical inferences. Our findings underscore that survey designs that can address specific sources of bias in self-reported livestock data can meaningfully improve livestock asset measurement in Africa.

Inclusive and gender-transformative seed systems: Concepts and applications

CONTEXT Seed is vital to the nutrition and livelihoods of millions of women and men small-scale farmers in low- and middle-income countries. Seed systems interventions can significantly enhance food security and nutrition by accelerating the adoption of improved varieties and the use of quality seed, which in turn increase the rate of genetic gain, productivity, and household welfare. These interventions can be particularly effective when advancing gender equality by supporting women’s empowerment and addressing discriminatory gender norms. However, there is relatively little evidence on the ways in which seed systems can be an entry point for advancing gender equality by transforming discriminatory gender norms. OBJECTIVES We develop and illustrate a gender transformative approach applied to seed sector development. Our first objective is to provide a framework to better understand how seed systems interventions can contribute to gender equality by (1) integrating gender-accommodative and gender-transformative approaches; and (2) assessing their gendered impacts. Our second objective is to apply this framework to a particular innovation – gender messaging via information and communications technologies (ICTs) – and explore how seed system interventions can be made more gender-transformative. METHODS We first reviewed the existing literature to develop a framework that defines gender-transformative and accommodative seed system interventions and their impacts. We then synthesized lessons learned from the application of this framework to case studies from Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda that used ICTs that contained gendered components. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION We discuss how a gender-accommodative approach aims for gender considerations to improve seed systems, while a gender-transformative approach flips the goal around by aiming at progress toward gender equality through seed systems. We find growing evidence on the potential of gender-transformative seed systems interventions to influence positively the empowerment of women and also men, and to create more conducive gender norms, as shown by three case studies on ICT enablers. These case studies also show that accommodative and transformative approaches are often complementary. SIGNIFICANCE We introduce research questions that research and development practitioners can ask to develop accommodative or transformative approaches in seed system interventions, and show the potential of both approaches to progress toward gender equality. The case studies indicate the feasibility of gender-transformative, ICT-enabled seed system interventions, with clear indications of the potential for low-cost adaptation at scale. However, the transformative potential of these interventions requires careful consideration of messaging content, format, and context, as well as strategic public investment and strong political will.

Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

We assess fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis and other domestic shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then evaluate the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use detailed longitudinal household survey data collected in three rounds, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends have been halted by these crises. We also find slightly larger fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates than previous estimates, ranging between −0.40 and −1.12, which vary across crops. We find that farmers are more responsive to fertilizer prices than to output prices. Farmers’ response to increases in staple prices was statistically insignificant and hence not as strong as theoretically perceived. Households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surges. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks.

Fertilizer, soil health, and economic shocks: A synthesis of recent evidence

This paper evaluates the impact of three interventions (seed trial packs, consumption-oriented interventions, and agricultural training, either individually or bundled) in improving varietal turnover in northern Nigeria via a 3-year cluster-randomized controlled trial. A secondary objective of the paper is to evaluate the performance of these varieties in farmers’ fields. Results show that seed trial packs increased adoption of promoted varieties by 42%–44% of farmers and 42%–47% of maize and cowpea land area. Farmers rated production, processing, marketing, and consumption characteristics of these varieties very highly. Yields on plots with promoted varieties were significantly higher than those of farmers’ traditional varieties, ranging from 16% to 25% more for maize and 70% for cowpea in the first season, with observed yields persisting in the second season.

From bargaining power to empowerment: Measuring the unmeasurable

Measuring power is central to empirical work on intrahousehold and gender relations. This paper reviews how progress in the measurement of power within households has facilitated our understanding of household decision-making and creates new opportunities for programs and policy. Early efforts to test household models focused on measuring spousal bargaining power, usually in models featuring two decision-makers within the household. Proxy measures for bargaining power included age, education, assets, and “outside options” that could affect spouses’ threat points within marriage. Evidence rejecting the collective model of the household has influenced the design of policies and programs, notably conditional cash transfer programs. Efforts have since shifted to measuring empowerment, drawing on theories of agency and power. Since 2010, several measures of women’s empowerment have been developed, including the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) and its variants. A distinct feature of the WEAI, like other counting-based measures, is its decomposability into its component indicators, which makes identifying sources of disempowerment possible. The WEAI indicators also embody jointness of decision-making or ownership, which better reflects actual decision-making within households compared to 2-person bargaining models. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research. This paper was presented at a Plenary Session of the 32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE) 2024, held from 2–7 August, 2024 in New Delhi, India.

Development and validation of the global diet quality score (GDQS) for children 24 to 59 months of age

Objectives To develop the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) for children aged 24-59 months and evaluate its performance in predicting outcomes related to nutrient adequacy and diet-related noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk. Background The GDQS is a food-based metric developed and validated for capturing diets’ contributions to nutrient adequacy and NCD risk among adult men and nonpregnant and nonlactating women aged ≥15 years globally. Despite the importance of ensuring healthy diets in preschool children and the need for systematic monitoring, no food-based metrics exist that holistically measure diet quality among children aged 24-59 months in diverse populations. Methods We developed candidate versions of the GDQS for children aged 24-59 months by adapting the gram cutoff values used for adults to account for children’s lower energy requirements. Using dietary data sets from Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, China, Ethiopia, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States, we evaluated candidate versions’ performance in predicting energy-adjusted nutrient intakes and adequacy, nutritional biomarkers, and overweight using Spearman’s correlation and multivariable-adjusted regression models, and we statistically compared performance of the strongest candidate with that of the Minimum Dietary Diversity–Women (MDD-W) indicator and Global Dietary Recommendations (GDR) score. Results The GDQS exhibited significant (P <.05) positive correlations with energy-adjusted intakes of protein, fiber, and most micronutrients in most data sets; significant negative correlations with added sugar and saturated fat in 2 data sets; and inconsistent correlations with monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fat. In multivariable-adjusted models, the GDQS, MDD-W, and GDR were positively associated with serum folate in Ethiopia (and the GDQS was in the United Kingdom), and the GDR was positively associated with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in China (P <.05). The GDQS was more strongly associated with the mean probability of adequacy of 8 nutrients than the GDR in 2 data sets, whereas the MDD-W outperformed the GDQS in 3 data sets (P <.05). Conclusion The GDQS is a useful metric for measuring diet quality among children aged 24-59 months in diverse populations.

Development and validation of the global diet quality score (GDQS) for children 5 to 9 years of age

Objective The purpose of the study was to develop and validate a Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) for children aged 5–9 years adapted from the existing GDQS developed for adults. Background Diet quality is important for nutrient adequacy and risk of nutrition-related chronic disease. A diet quality metric for global use with children is needed. Methods The 25 food groups of the GDQS were used to assign points for categories of consumption according to gram-weight cutoffs adapted for children based on energy requirements. As a preliminary step, alternative versions of gram-weight cutoffs were tested by comparing correlation analyses using 4 existing dietary datasets from low-, middle-, and high-income countries. A final GDQS metric version, selected based on strength of correlations and operational feasibility, was further examined in regression analyses with individual nutrient intake an overall nutrient intake adequacy score and biomarker and anthropometry outcomes in 7 dietary datasets from different countries. Regressions were also undertaken with other diet quality metrics to compare their relative performance with that of the GDQS. Results The GDQS had strong associations with most nutrient intakes, including an overall mean nutrient adequacy score and some nutrients associated with noncommunicable disease risk, such as fiber and added sugar. Biomarker data were limited in the available datasets and few associations with GDQS were found. The GDQS performed better or as well as other dietary quality metrics in predicting nutrient intakes. Conclusion The GDQS was associated with nutrient intakes and fills a gap in a global diet quality metric for children. The GDQS will be a useful tool to measure diet quality and monitoring changes in diet quality over time.

The full lethal impact of massive cuts to international food aid

Research priorities for drivers of food choice for food system transformation in South Asia: Proceedings of a collaborative workshop

Agrifood systems in South Asia are highly productive, but substantial challenges including poverty, climate change, and environmental degradation complicate progress toward achieving sustainable healthy diets for all. The dynamics of food systems and the consequence of their rapid transformation for food choice behaviors that contribute to healthy and unhealthy diets are not well understood [1]. Food choice is defined as a decision-making process through which individuals and households consider, acquire, prepare, distribute, and consume foods and beverages [2,3]. Understanding drivers of food choice (DFC) is important for achieving sustainable healthy diets, but evidence is lacking. This article outlines collectively derived priorities for future research on DFC in South Asia. A collaborative workshop was convened in March 2023 in Dhaka, Bangladesh, with experts from the region. The workshop emphasized the application of a science of food choice framework to guide identification of priorities for research on DFC in South Asia. Priorities were derived through an interdisciplinary collaborative process to clarify what is known and not known about DFC in the context of Food Systems Transformation in the region with emphasis on a continuum of food choice behaviors (production, acquisition, preparation, distribution, and consumption). Workshop participants identified the following 3 main priorities for future research on DFC that address knowledge gaps that emerged from discussions: 1) intrahousehold dynamics and behaviors, 2) adolescent food choice, and 3) market and food acquisition linkages. Specific research needs to emphasize the importance of multigenerational data, food allocation, perceptions on food safety, adolescent food choice behaviors, and the need for longitudinal data on linkages between market availability and food choice behaviors. Building a body of evidence on DFC and tools for monitoring and assessing food choice behaviors is essential for designing effective policies and programs that allow all individuals to have healthy and sustainable diets in South Asia.

Dataset on the patterns of livelihood diversification in farming systems of the Eastern Gangetic Plains of South Asia

The Eastern Gangetic Plains (EGP) region, characterized by smallholder-dominated farming, is experiencing rapid socio-economic and environmental changes. To enhance resilience, income stability, and food security, smallholders are increasingly diversifying their livelihoods away from traditional agriculture. However, the patterns and drivers of this diversification remain poorly understood. This study, utilizing data from the Rupantar project, aims to elucidate these patterns, identify key drivers, and assess the impacts on productivity, profitability, nutrition, and inclusion. A mixed-methods approach was employed, including a baseline survey of 1,400 households across India, Nepal, and Bangladesh and analysis using the Simpson’s Index of Diversity (SID). Fractional regression models revealed moderate diversification levels across the EGP with significant geographical and contextual variability. Key drivers included access to resources, gender, education, market access, and institutional support, with differences observed across countries and diversification types. Factors such as non-ownership of irrigation pumps, female household headship, and engagement in off-farm activities were significant predictors of higher diversification. The study found that diversification can enhance income security, nutritional outcomes, and environmental sustainability, although impacts vary by diversification type.

The costs of a multisectoral nutrition program implemented through a poultry value chain platform in Burkina Faso

Undernutrition in women and young children in Burkina Faso is a critical problem. Egg consumption is low despite many households raising poultry. The Soutenir l’Exploitation Familiale pour Lancer l’Élevage des Volailles et Valoriser l’Économie Rurale (SELEVER) project, an integrated agriculture-nutrition intervention, promoted egg consumption and sales to investigate the impact of poultry production on child nutrition. Multisectoral nutrition-sensitive agriculture programs address nutrition deficits but lack comparable cost information. This study estimates the costs of the SELEVER program, an integrated poultry and nutrition intervention. The study estimates the program’s economic costs using a standardized methodology from the Strengthening Economic Evaluation for Multisectoral Strategies for Nutrition (SEEMS-Nutrition) consortium, which aligns financial and economic costs along program impact pathways, allocating costs by activities and inputs. We conducted qualitative interviews and focus groups on time allocation and beneficiary out-of-pocket costs. Incremental economic costs were calculated by combining expenditures and economic costs. The total incremental program cost was USD$18,084,727.68 over 5 years, with annual incremental costs of USD$209.20 per direct beneficiary and $796.26 per household. Major cost drivers included overhead (18%), poultry extension (17%), training (16%), household counseling (7%), technical assistance (7%) and microcredit (6%). Total input costs were dominated by personnel (51%), supplies (13%), agricultural inputs (10%) and overhead (9%). We present the total incremental costs of a multisectoral nutrition intervention to generate revenue with poultry. The costs per beneficiary were higher than similar interventions, underscoring the need for cost-effectiveness evaluations of multisectoral nutrition programs. A standardized cost methodology facilitates comparisons with multisectoral nutrition interventions and builds the evidence base.

Impacts of city life on nutrition: Evidence From resettlement lotteries in China

Urban environments are thought to improve food security, by offering enhanced access to markets and income opportunities. Yet this idea is hard to test empirically due to an abundance of confounding factors and selection issues. This study leverages a resettlement program in China to provide the first quasi-experimental estimate of city life on food consumption and nutrition among low-income households. Lottery-determined timing of resettlement enables causal inference. We base our empirics on a 3-year panel and a range of difference-in-differences and matching methodologies. We find that those who were resettled to towns significantly increased both food consumption and diet variety, with increased intake of several macro- and micro-nutrients. Diet quality mostly improved, but we also found signs of over-consumption, notably of carbohydrates. Our evidence further suggests that our impacts are primarily due to improved market access. This stands in contrast to recent literature that finds little or no effect of living environments on food consumption. Instead, we reveal a significant impact of urban environments in shaping diets, bolstering the notion that supply-side channels do matter in some contexts. JEL Classification: I15, O18, R23

Adapting the Women’s Empowerment in Nutrition Index: Lessons from Kenya

Women face a disproportionate burden of malnutrition and food insecurity. Research has shown that women’s empowerment can buffer women against nutritional problems. This paper contributes to ongoing efforts to measure women’s empowerment that are both context-sensitive and universal, focusing on the recently developed Women’s Empowerment in Nutrition Index (WENI). Earlier research has shown it is both a valid construct and positively related to dietary and nutritional outcomes of women in South Asia. We establish that WENI is generalizable to agropastoral and pastoral Kenya, an area with substantially different livelihoods, food system, norms, and institutions than South Asia. We find that a locally contextualized WENI is strongly associated with women’s body mass index and dietary diversity as well as household level food insecurity. We also present findings for two shorter variations of WENI: an abbreviated WENI (A-WENI) and a cross context WENI (CC-WENI). A-WENI contains a small subset of WENI indicators identified using machine learning with South Asian data and therefore is context-specific. CC-WENI does not contain indicators specific to the validation context. We find that they perform comparably well with caveats. Thus, as use of WENI expands we recommend adapting WENI for in-depth analyses of women’s nutritional empowerment; using CC-WENI for cross-context comparisons; and using A-WENI for rapid appraisals of community level progress in a given context.

Weather shocks and rice (Oryza sativa) yield response to fertilizer: Representative field-level evidence from Bangladesh

What works for reducing stunting in low-income and middle-income countries? Cumulative learnings from the Global Stunting Exemplars Project

Background Impaired linear growth and stunting in children under 5 y is a marker of multiple deprivations in low-income and middle-income countries. Objectives We aimed to assess drivers and policies influencing improvements in linear growth and stunting reduction in 10 countries with annual rates of reduction in childhood stunting averaging 1.1% (range: 0.4%–1.7%) at national-level or subnational-level, and to improve a framework of action for other countries to follow. Methods We used mixed methods to assess trends and patterns of improvement in linear growth in children under 5 y using available household-level data and in-depth analysis of programs and their implementation. We assessed patterns of change with multivariate regression analyses of risk factors driving stunting and affecting change. We compared results from the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition analyses using a hierarchical approach and retrospectively assessed the appropriateness of a previously proposed 10-step process for country-level planning and implementation processes. Limited data precluded robust serial assessment of dietary intake at individual level for children and mothers. Results Rapid reduction in childhood stunting is possible and findings across exemplar countries underscore the benefits of indirect and direct interventions in health and other social sectors. These include programs focusing on poverty alleviation; water, sanitation, and hygiene; promotion of girls’ education and empowerment; and maternal nutrition. The potential benefits of family planning programs and factors contributing to gains in maternal nutrition were noted. In malarial endemic areas, malaria control programs were associated with improved childhood growth, and patterns of growth indicated continued benefits of childhood disease prevention and management strategies. Conclusions A systematic, evidence-informed approach to improve maternal and child health and nutrition is feasible and, with targeting, can accelerate reduction in linear growth faltering in childhood.

Sustainable poverty reduction through social assistance: Modality, context, and complementary programming in Bangladesh

Social assistance programs can increase consumption and reduce poverty, but less is known about whether these impacts are sustained after programs end, or how design and context influence sustainability. Using data collected in two regions of Bangladesh four years after a randomized intervention ended, we find that combining cash transfers with complementary programming led to sustained increases in consumption and reductions in poverty. Combining food transfers with complementary programming showed similar patterns, to a lesser extent. Cash alone had context-specific sustained effects; food alone had no sustained impacts. Results suggest that context, modality, and complementary programming matter for sustained impacts.

The unmet financial needs of intermediary firms within agri-food value chains in Uganda and Bangladesh

JEL Codes: L14, L81, O13, Q13

Evolution of intimate partner violence impacts from cash transfers, food transfers, and behaviour change communication: Mixed-method experimental evidence from a nine-year post-programme follow-up in Bangladesh

Cash or food transfers can reduce intimate partner violence (IPV), but knowledge gaps remain on how impacts evolve over time, and the role of complementary ‘plus’ activities and contextual factors. We conducted a mixed-method analysis of how the Transfer Modality Research Initiative in Bangladesh affected IPV over time. The programme was implemented from 2012 to 2014, following a randomised controlled trial (RCT) design, across Northern and Southern Bangladesh. Intervention arms included monthly cash or food transfers, with or without complementary nutrition behaviour change communication (BCC). We estimate post-programme impacts on IPV using quantitative data collected in 2014–2015, 2018, and 2022, and combine this with qualitative data collected in 2023 to explore how and why IPV impacts evolved over time and the role of contextual factors. In the North, combining cash with BCC led to sustained IPV reductions in each post-programme round, while cash alone reduced IPV in 2022 but not the previous two rounds; food transfers showed no post-programme impacts. In the South, combining food with BCC led to post-programme IPV reductions in 2014–2015; no intervention sustained IPV reductions thereafter. Sustained IPV reductions are primarily driven by improved household economic security and emotional well-being. Other pathways – family relationships (including in-laws’ roles), women’s empowerment, and social and community support – contributed to changing couples’ relationships during the programme but became less salient after the programme ended. Contextual factors, including demographic changes, climate-related changes, external projects and norms condoning IPV appear to influence the sustainability of impacts. Results suggest that ‘plus’ programming was key to sustaining IPV impacts soon after the interventions, but less so by nine years post-programme, as economic security increasingly drove impacts. More mixed method research is needed from the outset to unpack if and how pathways to IPV reduction can be sustained in different contexts over time.

Adoption or placement in foster care and catch-up in linear growth and development: A meta-analysis of individual participant data

Background The ability of children to recover from linear growth retardation, often referred to as catch-up growth, has intrigued researchers for many decades. Whether adoption from a low-to a high-income setting, which provides a comprehensive improvement in the conditions that cause children to not grow well, leads to catch-up growth is unknown. Objective We estimated the association of adoption (or placement in foster care) with catch-up in linear growth and child development before 5 years of age. Methods We conducted a two-stage meta-analysis using individual participant data for linear growth. We obtained study-specific and subgroup estimates and pooled the estimates using random-effects models. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of our findings. A review of child development outcomes was conducted. Results We included 485 children under 5 years of age from 9 adoption studies. At baseline, children had a mean age of 15.8 mo and a length deficit of 3.9 cm. Adoption reduced this gap by 77% or 3.0 cm (95% CI: 1.9-4.1 cm)(mean age 32.3 mo). Catch-up growth was found in both girls (3.6 cm; 95% CI 2.9-4.2 cm) and boys (2.5 cm; 95% CI: 1.9-3.1 cm) and in children adopted after the age of 24 mo (2.2 cm, 95% CI 0.6-3.7 cm). The sensitivity analyses did not change any of the substantive findings. The magnitude of catch-up in child development (mean reduction in deficit of 46%) was smaller than in linear growth. Conclusions Catch-up in linear growth in children under five is biologically possible when the environment is improved profoundly and comprehensively. Partial reversal of the accumulated height deficit was more likely than recovery in developmental outcomes which highlights the need to ensure all children grow and develop in environments that prevent deficits from occurring rather than trying to correct them.

Intensive and extensive margins of India’s agricultural trade: implications for export diversification and development

This paper aims to analyze relative contribution of intensive margin (IM) and extensive margin (EM) to growth in India’s agricultural exports for the period 2001 to 2020. It also analyses the determinants of IM and EMs through a standard gravity model.The study uses export data from United Nations Comtrade, which is accessed through World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) software. Data for the period 2001 to 2020 were compiled for analysis using the Harmonized System (HS) of commodity classification system at the six-digit level. This study decomposed the contribution of IM and EM in the growth of Indian agricultural trade by using Hummels and Klenow’s approach. After performing the export decomposition analysis, the authors analyze the factors influencing IM and EM by using the Tobit regression model and Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) method of estimation.The EM grew at 1.24% per annum, while the intensive margin (IM) increased by 0.23%. The contribution of growth at the EM increased from 58.8% in 2001 to 70.2% in 2020. Export growth along the IM was relatively high for animal products and agricultural raw materials, while growth at the EM was an important contributor to the export growth of horticultural and processed agricultural products. There was a positive and significant effect of the free trade agreement (FTA) on export margins.More disaggregated commodity-specific studies on value chain analysis would provide valuable insights into the issues hindering exports and realizing the untapped export potential.There is a scarcity of holistic and recent studies illustrating the role of IM and EMs in agricultural trade growth, covering a large number of commodities and geographies associated with Indian agricultural trade. The study would be helpful to the stakeholders in facilitating informed policy decisions.

Farmers’ pesticide use, disposal behavior, and pre-harvest interval: A case study from Nigeria

In Sub-Saharan Africa, small farmers rely heavily rely on synthetic pesticides, the overuse of which poses significant risks to human health, the environment, and food safety. Yet detailed empirical evidence on knowledge of and the knowledge and drivers of pesticide management practices remains scarce, limiting insights for policymakers and development practitioners. To address this gap, we leveraged on data collected from 1556 tomato producers in Northern Nigeria to investigate the determinants of pesticide use behavior using a sequential-exploratory mixed-method approach. We examined a broader range of pest management-related practices than prior literature, including safety equipment usage, pesticide disposal methods, and adherence to pre-harvest intervals (PHIs)-, which is the intervals between the last pesticide application and the crop harvest. We found substantial noncompliance with the recommended practices: 45% of farmers reuse empty pesticide containers for other purposes, 14% discard them on the farm, 15% burn containers in open fires, and 40% harvest tomatoes within 1–5 days after pesticide application, violating the 7-day PHI guideline. These findings suggest that many tomato farmers adopt unsafe practices, which have adverse implications for their health, the environment, and the safety of food available to consumers. We show that training on pesticide disposal and midstream market channels (e.g., wholesalers and aggregators) are strongly correlated with improved pesticide handling and higher PHI compliance. Overall, our results underscore the need for targeted training programs to enhance farmers’ awareness of safe pesticide application, disposal practices, and PHI adherence. These efforts should be complemented by stronger regulatory frameworks and mechanisms to align farmer pesticide use practices with consumer preferences for safe products, as observed by in the higher PHI adherence among farmers selling to midstream actors.

Imperfect competition and asymmetric welfare effects of global price and productivity shocks: a CGE model analysis for Senegal

This article investigates the asymmetric effects of global price and productivity shocks on welfare in the context of imperfect competition. The primary objective is to understand how market concentration affects the transmission of economic shocks and their impacts on various households. A CGE model, calibrated on a 2014 social accounting matrix for Senegal, is used. The model features a trading sector operating under a Cournot oligopoly with increasing returns to scale. Two scenarios are simulated: a 15% increase in global import prices and a 10% increase in agricultural productivity, each considering different levels of market concentration. The findings reveal that higher global import prices reduce household well-being, a situation exacerbated by low market competition. In contrast, agricultural productivity gains enhance well-being, with these benefits amplified by greater competition. However, the wealthiest households in Dakar benefit from low competition due to their positions in oligopolistic companies. To maximize household well-being, economic policies should focus on strengthening market competition, particularly in the trading sector. Actions such as reducing entry barriers for new businesses and regulating anti-competitive practices can help mitigate the adverse effects of global price increases and amplify the benefits of agricultural productivity gains.

Co-occurrence of stunting and off-track early child development in low- and middle-income countries

Importance: Although children across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are increasingly surviving, many are not fully thriving. Both stunting and off-track early child development (ECD) hinder children’s potential to thrive. Objectives: To estimate the global prevalence of the co-occurrence of stunting and off-track ECD and explore its association with nurturing care and sociodemographic factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study pooled data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (2010-2020) on 173 416 children aged 36-59 months in 41 LMICs. Statistical analysis was conducted from February to December 2024. Exposure: Risk factors pertaining to inadequate nurturing care, low socioeconomic status, and other sociodemographic characteristics. Main Outcomes and Measures: Children were classified into 4 groups with respect to thriving: children who were stunted only (height-for-age z score <−2 SD), off-track ECD only (measured using the Early Childhood Development Index), both stunted and off-track ECD (co-occurrence), or neither. Results: In the pooled sample of 173 416 children, the mean (SD) child age was 47.1 (6.8) months, and 88 242 (50.9%) were boys. Approximately 1 in 6 children (17.0% [95% CI, 16.8%-17.2%]) were both stunted and had off-track ECD, 17.1% (95% CI, 16.9%-17.3%) were stunted only, 27.8% (95% CI, 27.6%-28.0%) had off-track ECD only, and 38.1% (95% CI, 37.9%-38.4%) were neither stunted nor had off-track ECD. Socioeconomic gradients were observed, with more co-occurrence in lower-income countries (18.2% [95% CI, 17.9%-18.6%]), poorer households (22.1% [95% CI, 21.7%-22.5%] for poorest wealth quintile), mothers with lower educational levels (20.8% [95% CI, 20.6%-21.0%] for primary education or less), and rural settings (19.3% [95% CI, 19.1%-19.6%]). Various indicators of inadequate nurturing care along with low socioeconomic status were associated with co-occurrence. The top 5 factors associated with co-occurrence were poorest wealth quintile (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.75; 95% CI, 2.53-2.99), no early childhood education (AOR, 2.22; 95% CI, 2.10-2.34), low maternal educational level (AOR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.37-1.51), no toys at home (AOR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.51), and diarrhea (AOR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.31-1.45). The associations of poor household wealth, no birth registration, and no early childhood education with co-occurrence were significantly larger than their associations with stunting only or off-track ECD only. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study of young children in LMICs suggests that a significant proportion were both stunted and had off-track ECD. These findings underscore the need for multisectoral interventions that holistically target nutrition, health, and ECD risks to ensure that all children globally can thrive, especially those facing the double burden of stunting and off-track ECD.

Quality of routine health and nutrition data in Ethiopia: A systematic review

Background High-quality data are vital for informed decision-making, enhancing population health, and achieving comprehensive insights. However, there is limited understanding of the consistency and reliability of routine Health Management Information System (HMIS) including nutrition data across diverse regions in Ethiopia. This study systematically reviewed the existing literature to address these knowledge gaps. Methods We systematically searched PubMed, HINARI, and Google Scholar for studies published from 2015 onwards to assess HMIS, including nutrition data quality in Ethiopia. The evaluations focused on completeness, consistency, and timeliness metrics defined by the WHO. We included diverse regional studies without indicator restrictions, prioritized data quality metrics as primary outcomes, and explored qualitative reasons for poor data quality as secondary outcomes. Results Of the 1790 papers screened, 25 met the inclusion criteria. The completeness of reporting varied widely among studies (50%–100%), with only 21% (4 out of 19) exceeding 90%. The consistency ranged from 38.9% to 90.5%, with only 6% of studies reporting internal consistency above 90%. Other consistency issues included lack of external consistency, indicator discrepancies, and outliers. Timeliness ranged from 41.9% to 93.7%, with 54% of studies reporting below 80%. In addition to the lack of studies addressing nutrition data, the quality was no better than other components of HMIS. The major factors contributing to poor data quality were human resource shortages, insufficient capacity building, behavioural influences, and infrastructural deficits. Conclusion The HMIS including nutrition data in Ethiopia, exhibited deficiencies in completeness, consistency, and timeliness, which were largely, attributed to capacity and resource constraints. Interventions should prioritize resource allocation, staff training, supervision, and feedback mechanisms to enhance data quality, thereby improving decision-making processes and population health outcomes.

Health or economics: Unpacking concern type and severity in the COVID-19 pandemic

Adapting to extreme weather conditions in a developing country: An economywide policy assessment from Malawi

Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data

CONTEXT Despite the importance of enhanced seed quality to agricultural productivity growth, evidence remains scarce regarding the nature and possible drivers of returns to formal sector quality assurance systems, including certified seeds production in countries like Nigeria that focus significantly on the formal-sector seed systems. OBJECTIVE This study narrows this knowledge gap by estimating the effect of the quantity of certified seeds produced and the spatial variations where they are produced on the use of certified seeds and yields. We also assess the yield effects of certified seeds use and their relationship with agroclimatic and socioeconomic conditions. METHODS We combine nationally-representative farm-household survey panel data with spatial data on the headquarters locations of seed companies, the quantity of certified seeds for maize, cowpea, and rice that they produce, and spatially explicit agroecological data. We apply panel fixed effects methods as well as instrumental-variable methods to address potential endogeneity associated with certified seeds use while also controlling for the use of improved varieties to separate their effects from the effects of certified seeds. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that the availability of certified seeds—captured by indicators of certified seeds produced by seed companies headquartered in the states of survey respondents—is associated with positive but declining marginal effects on certified seeds use and yields. These results are robust when we also consider the potential within-state heterogeneity in the proximity to seed company headquarters, as well as potential spillovers from the nearest adjacent states. The yield effects of certified seeds are heterogeneous and depend on agroclimatic conditions and farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics. The use of certified seeds is somewhat higher in areas with higher yield effects after controlling for certified seeds production. These patterns partly lead to observed non-linearities in certified seeds use because certified seeds may be more likely to be used by farmers with higher expected returns than farmers with lower expected returns. These results underscore the importance of spatially targeted efforts in enhancing certified seeds production capacity, together with the exploration of intermediate quality standards in the short term where costs of seed certification are high relative to returns. SIGNIFICANCE The study provides unique quantitative evidence in a nationally representative framework in an African country that returns to seed certification systems in the current setting significantly vary depending on contexts, including agroclimatic conditions.

A band selection method for consumer-grade camera modification for UAV-based rapeseed growth monitoring

Near-infrared (NIR) modification of low-cost cameras is considered an important method to acquire high-resolution NIR images on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform. However, few studies have examined filter selection methods to modify consumer-grade cameras for UAV-based agricultural crop monitoring. This study addresses a key challenge: how to balance imaging quality with spectral sensitivity when selecting filters for the modification of consumer-grade cameras. To this end, the normalized difference spectral index (NDSI) and the ratio spectral index (RSI) formulations were used to calculate the spectral indices (SIs) from all possible combinations of any two center wavelengths in UAV hyperspectral data. The contour maps of the coefficient of determination (R2) between the SIs and ground-measured rapeseed LAI were then computed to automatically generate the broadband combinations with optimized center wavelengths and effective bandwidths for selecting filters on camera modification. Results showed that a consumer-grade camera (Nikon D7000) modified by the selected filters had performance comparable with a multispectral camera (RedEdge Micasense 3), but slightly worse than a research-grade hyperspectral camera (Nano-Hyperspec®) in terms of SIs for LAI estimation. In addition, the high-resolution images from the modified camera were processed to obtain accurate crop plant height information. The SIs coupled with plant height from the modified camera (rRMSE = 18.1 % for field 1 and 14.3 % for field 2) was found to perform similar to, and in some cases even better than, those from the research-grade multispectral (rRMSE = 17.9 % and 16.7 % for the respective fields) and hyperspectral (rRMSE = 18.8 % for field 1) cameras for UAV-based LAI estimation. The findings from this study indicate that the proposed camera modification method is feasible and adaptable to agricultural crop monitoring. Thus, appropriately modified consumer-grade cameras can be a cost-effective replacement for research-grade sensors to rapidly and accurately assess crop growth status.

Impact of farm size on the function of landscape-level payments for ecosystem services: An agent-based model study

Reducing pesticide use and restoring biodiversity are among the most pressing environmental challenges. Enhancing natural pest control ecosystem services through the integration of non-crop habitats (NCH) offers promising potential, creating a positive feedback loop by harnessing insect biodiversity to reduce pesticide reliance. Policy support is needed at the landscape level to encourage adoption of this currently underutilized approach, which depends on spatial coordination and collective behavioral change. Farm size, which critically influences farmers’ agrochemical inputs, agroecological practices, and interactions with neighboring farms, varies across agricultural landscapes. It is unclear what role farm size plays in landscape-scale agri-environmental incentive programs, which have recently seen growing attention in scientific research and policy implementation. We employ framed field games and agent-based modeling as complementary research tools, exploring how farm size impacts the function of landscape-scale NCH subsidies aimed at encouraging coordinated provision and sharing of natural pest control services to reduce pesticide use. Our model simulation shows that, in landscapes of larger average farm size or lower farm size heterogeneity, NCH subsidies are significantly more effective at reducing pesticide use and increasing NCH efficiency in providing joint production benefits. Our results imply that landscape-scale payments for natural pest control ecosystem services face fewer obstacles as incentive-based mechanisms in landscapes of larger, more homogeneous farms, supporting the implementation of landscape-scale initiatives in such areas to effectively enhance ecosystem services. Our findings contribute to the growing discussion around landscape-level financial incentive programs that depend on spatial coordination, highlighting the importance of farmers’ land holding size.

Nurturing care in the first 10 years of life: Results from a Vietnamese longitudinal study

Armed conflict and gendered participation in agrifood systems: Survey evidence from 29 African countries

This paper provides empirical micro-level evidence on the gendered impacts of armed conflict on economic activity in agriculture and other sectors, combining large-N sex-disaggregated survey data with temporally and spatially disaggregated conflict event data from 29 African countries. We find that local conflict exposure is only weakly related to labour-force participation, but strongly reduces the total number of hours worked and increases engagement in the agricultural sector. These net impacts exist for both men and women. However, the reduction in hours worked is significantly greater among men, while the increase in agricultural activity is significantly greater among women. In the longer term, impacts of conflict on employment two years later are stronger when no more conflict ensues than if further conflict occurs, challenging the widespread idea of one-off conflict shocks fading away over time and suggesting that labour markets adapt to and absorb lasting conflict situations. Different types of conflict event have qualitatively similar impacts, which are strongest for explosions, such as from air strikes or landmines. Overall, our findings underline that armed conflict entails structural economic, social and institutional change, which creates complex, gendered impacts on economic activity.

Comparison of gestational age assessment methods in the second and third trimesters: Evaluating alternative approaches against ultrasound in urban Burkina Faso

Background: Accurate determination of gestational age by way of ultrasound is challenging in resource-limited settings like Burkina Faso, leading to the use of alternative methods, though their accuracy and agreement remain poorly established. This practice leads to inadequate risk assessment during pregnancy and failure to identify preterm birth, potentially contributing to high neonatal mortality rates. The purpose of this study was to determine the agreement among alternative methods for gestational age estimation and the Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement (AMANHI) method in Burkina Faso. Methods: Data were obtained from a prospective cohort study involving pregnant women in the second or third trimester in Bobo-Dioulasso to evaluate the agreement of last menstrual period (LMP), symphysis-fundal height (SFH), Dubowitz, Hadlock, and AMAHNI methods to estimate gestational age. The degree of agreement was assessed using the Bland–Altman method and intraclass correlation coefficients. The AMANHI method, validated for late pregnancy, was used as the reference standard. Results: A total of 768 pregnant women were included in the analysis. Plots showed a lack of agreement between the AMANHI method and all other methods, with 95% limits of agreement ranging from −7.6 to +9.8 weeks. Additionally, the incidence of preterm birth was consistently higher when assessed using the alternative methods compared with the AMANHI method. Conclusions: The clinical methods (SFH, LMP, Dubowitz) disagree with the ultrasound methods (AMANHI, Hadlock), but the ultrasound methods produce more similar results. The routine application of other methods is likely to result in an overestimation of preterm birth incidence compared with AMANHI. These findings highlight the urgent need to improve access to obstetric ultrasound and to provide comprehensive training in the application of the AMANHI method for accurate late-term gestational age estimation in Burkina Faso.

Risk-appropriate, science-based innovation regulations are important

Rural underemployment and urbanisation: Insights from a 9-year panel from Malawi

Rural labour markets in Africa are frequently characterised by underemployment, with farmers unable to fully deploy throughout the year one of their most important assets—their labour. Using a nine-year panel data set on 1,407 working-age adults from rural Malawi, we document changes in rural underemployment over this period and how they are associated with urbanisation. Nearby urban growth is linked to increased hours worked in casual labour (ganyu) and in non-agricultural sectors, at the expense of work on the household farm. Improved urban access is also associated with a small increase in wage labour and, at the intensive margin, with hours supplied in household enterprises. We draw lessons from these results for policies, investments and interventions to leverage urban growth for rural development.

Building Ethiopia’s food security resilience to climate and hydrological change

Historically Ethiopia’s food security has been sensitive to climatic variability, but changes in future weather and climate could lead to overall reductions and increased variability in agricultural production, without further adaptation. We present an integrated modelling assessment framework which combines climate, crop, and hydrological modelling to quantify future risks to Ethiopia’s food security. We explore the impacts of 2°C and higher climate change scenarios on water availability and crop yields and simulate how future climate shocks may impact Ethiopia’s food. We consider three adaptations to agricultural management practices (improved seed varieties, increased use of nitrogen fertilizer and supplementary irrigation) and quantify their effectiveness in enhancing the resilience of Ethiopia’s food system to climate and hydrological change by 2050. Results show that, without policy intervention, climate change creates a risk of declining Meher season crop yields across Ethiopia. Under the worst climate change scenario, teff (−12.0%), barley (−6.7%), and wheat (−4.4%) are projected to have the largest decline in average yields, whilst maize (−0.1%) and sorghum (+0.9%) yields are less impacted thanks to more favourable growing conditions. However, the results also indicate that the adaptation options have a bigger beneficial effect than the climate impact. Of the policies evaluated, improved seeds have a relatively greater effect than increased fertilizer use. Supplementary irrigation could help to mitigate increases in crop water requirements under warmer climate conditions and is most effective in drought prone basins and for drought-vulnerable crops. Overall, the results show that locally relevant agricultural policies are necessary to build Ethiopia’s food system resilience to climate and hydrological change by the mid-century.

Global analysis reveals persistent shortfalls and regional differences in availability of foods needed for health

Sufficient food is available in the world for all people to consume sufficient calories, but not healthy diets. This study traces historical and projected changes in global food systems toward alignment with the new Healthy Diet Basket (HDB) used by UN agencies and the World Bank to monitor the cost and affordability of healthy diets worldwide. Using the HDB as a standard to measure adequacy of national, regional and global supply-demand balances, we find substantial but inconsistent progress toward closer alignment with dietary guidelines, with large global shortfalls in fruits, vegetables, and legumes, nuts, and seeds, and large disparities among regions in use of animal source foods. Projections show that additional investments aimed at reducing chronic hunger would modestly accelerate improvements in adequacy where shortfalls are greatest, revealing the need for complementary investments to increase access to under-consumed food groups especially in low-income countries.

Protocol: Food environment, food choice, diets, and nutrition outcomes of pastoralists in Africa: Scoping review protocol

This is the protocol for a Campbell scoping review. The objectives are as follows: (i) To define and characterize the food environment of pastoralists in Africa; (ii) To identify the domains of the food environment that have been studied in pastoralist settings in Africa; (iii) To assess the relationship between the food environment and food choice, dietary intake, and nutrition outcomes among pastoralists in Africa; and (iv) To map the study designs, methods, and geographical coverage of the studies.

Wholesalers and the transformation of Myanmar’s maize value chains

Wholesalers of agricultural crops have historically received limited attention in the literature on agricultural development, which has a strongly productivist focus. When wholesalers are considered, they are often framed as exploitative, taking advantage of information asymmetries, market failures, and unequal power relations to extract heavy surpluses from farmers. However, there is a growing appreciation that wholesalers may play important roles in facilitating agricultural development and rural transformation. This paper evaluates wholesaler conduct and performance using a survey of 218 maize wholesalers in 12 of the major maize-growing and trading townships of South Shan State, Myanmar and the cities of Lashio and Muse in North Shan. Hybrid maize emerged very rapidly in Myanmar over the past two decades to become a major cash crop, supplying domestic animal feed mills and becoming one of Myanmar’s most important exports to China and Thailand. Wholesalers have been central to the development of this supply chain and the sector. Contrary to recent literature from Myanmar that has cast maize wholesalers as exploitative, the survey finds that the rapidly growing wholesaler segment of the maize value chain is highly competitive, rapidly changing with respect to technology, and functions efficiently. Farmers obtaining maize inputs from wholesalers in the form of tied output credit sell their maize at prevailing market rates. The emergence of clusters of maize wholesalers and allied actors such as third-party logistics services occurred spontaneously and symbiotically with the expansion of hybrid maize cultivation, and with each set of actors essential to the emergence of the others.

Employment impacts of agrifood system innovations and policies: A review of the evidence

The agrifood sector (AFS) constitutes about one-sixth of the global economy and is the world’s largest source of employment, supporting the livelihoods of most of the world’s poor and vulnerable people (Corong et al., 2024; Yi et al., 2024). In recent decades, global agricultural productivity has increased due to technological and institutional innovations. This has contributed to poverty reduction and improved food security. Despite these positive contributions, however, poverty remains widespread among rural and agrifood sector producers and workers. The challenge remains to address the constraints these producers and workers face and also enable more inclusive value chain development that would provide decent livelihoods and employment for those currently left behind. To this end, the CGIAR Initiative “Rethinking Food Markets and Value Chains for Inclusion and Sustainability” commissioned a meta study to identify knowledge gaps regarding the impacts of developing countries’ agrifood value chain (AVC) integration and modernization processes on employment and income sharing (Berdegué et al., 2023). This paper summarizes its key findings and draws conclusions for further research.

Perspective: Can growth monitoring and promotion accurately diagnose or screen for inadequate growth of individual children? A critical review of the epidemiological foundations

Growth monitoring and promotion (GMP), the process of periodic anthropometric measurements to assess the adequacy of individual child growth, is implemented across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The epidemiological foundations of GMP (i.e., that GMP can accurately diagnose or screen for inadequate growth) have never been critically reviewed. We first assessed growth patterns of individual healthy children. Using longitudinal data from low-, middle-, and high-income countries, we evaluated whether commonly used GMP criteria can be used for diagnosis and screening; i.e., if they accurately identify current, or predict subsequent, inadequate growth in individual children. The growth of individual healthy children does not track along a specific growth curve which challenges the notion that growth measurements alone can be used to distinguish between healthy and inadequate growth. We demonstrate that GMP criteria do not provide meaningful diagnostic information and that GMP is not a meaningful screening activity: commonly used GMP criteria are inaccurate predictors of (inadequate) growth later in childhood; and collecting individual children’s weight and height does not help to identify who needs support or who will benefit. Our results do not undermine the importance of dedicated programs to diagnose wasting in individual children nor do they challenge the need for well-child care to support parents and to ensure children’s optimal nutrition, health, and development. Our findings, however, highlight the need to carefully reconsider the current design of GMP in LMICs.

Economic impacts of large dams on downstream brickmaking in developing countries

Large dams have positive and negative impacts, including disrupting brickmaking on the floodplains downstream due to flow regulation and sediment reduction, affecting the supply of essential construction material, notably in developing countries. In this study, we introduce an analytical framework to assess the economywide effects of large dams on downstream brickmaking, focusing on Traditional Fired Clay Brick (TFCB). The framework includes three steps: characterizing the impacts on river flow and sediment load using river system modeling and secondary data, understanding the role of TFCB production in the economy based on survey and economic data, and quantifying the economywide impacts of changes in TFCB production using dynamic computable general equilibrium modeling. We demonstrate the functionality of the approach by conducting a case study of the impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Sudanese economy due to changes in TFCB production by comparing two scenarios: “with GERD” and “no GERD.” Results show that Sudan’s accumulated (2023–2050) discounted (at 0.5% annually) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost would decline by US$ 6 billion (−0.38%) due to a reduction in TFCB production. Consumer flexibility regarding brick types and the ability of alternative brick sources to fill the demand gap are key determinants of the impacts.

Evaluating the gendered credit constraints and uptake of an insurance-linked credit product among smallholder farmers in Kenya

Maternal balanced energy-protein supplementation reshapes the maternal gut microbiome and enhances carbohydrate metabolism in infants: A randomized controlled trial

Balanced energy-protein (BEP) supplementation during pregnancy and lactation can improve birth outcomes and infant growth, with the gut microbiome as a potential mediator. The MISAME-III randomized controlled trial (ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT03533712) assessed the effect of BEP supplementation, provided during pregnancy and the first six months of lactation, on small-for-gestational age prevalence and length-for-age Z-scores at six months in rural Burkina Faso. Nested within MISAME-III, this sub-study examines the impact of BEP supplementation on maternal and infant gut microbiomes and their mediating role in birth outcomes and infant growth. A total of 152 mother-infant dyads (n = 71 intervention, n = 81 control) were included for metagenomic sequencing, with stool samples collected at the second and third trimesters, and at 1–2 and 5–6 months postpartum. BEP supplementation significantly altered maternal gut microbiome diversity, composition, and function, particularly those with immune-modulatory properties. Pathways linked to lipopolysaccharide biosynthesis were depleted and the species Bacteroides fragilis was enriched in BEP-supplemented mothers. Maternal BEP supplementation also accelerated infant microbiome changes and enhanced carbohydrate metabolism. Causal mediation analyses identified specific taxa mediating the effect of BEP on birth outcomes and infant growth. These findings suggest that maternal supplementation modulates gut microbiome composition and influences early-life development in resource-limited settings.

Shocks and stability of risk and time preferences among poor rural households in Ethiopia

This paper examines the effects of shocks on temporal stability of risk and time preferences of rural households within a developing country context characterized by frequent droughts, chronic food insecurity, and low levels of education. Leveraging a three-wave large and diverse household panel data that elicits preferences every two years for more than 6,500 individuals from over 5,600 sample rural households in Ethiopia, we analyze the effects of droughts (self-reported) and rainfall shortfalls on household risk and time preferences. Our findings show that households become more risk-averse and impatient after experiencing drought and rainfall shocks; the change in risk preferences is more notable among households that experience recurrent droughts and multiple covariate shocks during the same period.

Ex ante economic impact assessment of the 3R-gene potato in Kenya

Potato late-blight disease is as a major constraint to potato production in Kenya. The use of fungicides to control the disease is limited by the practice of delaying application until the symptoms are visible, and inappropriate application rates and methods. Biotech crops, such as 3R-gene potato, are providing sustainable solutions to crop protection challenges in agriculture, but little is known about their social and economic potential in any country. To gain greater insights into the potential of 3R-gene potato in Kenya, this study evaluates the economic benefits of Asante, Shangi, and Tigoni potato varieties, which are resistant to late blight. Data from experts along the potato value chain and secondary sources are analyzed using the economic surplus model and a real options model. First, experts’ opinions revealed that late-blight disease is responsible for 23% of production loss annually, and that 12% of the production costs are due to the use of fungicides to control late blight disease. Secondly, the study results suggest that the release of 3R-gene Shangi would generate the greatest economic benefits of KES 845.9 million (US$ 8.2 million) annually. The expected net benefits of 3R-gene Asante are KES 7.3 million (US$ 0.07 million) annually. 3R-gene Tigoni, with the lowest potential adoption rates, would be expected to realize a negative net of KES of -1.26 million (US$ -0.01 million) annually. Significant potential economic gains, which is expected to increase with better awareness of biotech crops, support the immediate release of 3R-gene Shangi in Kenya.

Understanding pastoralist adaptations to drought via games and choice experiments: Field testing among Borana communities

Transhumant and nomadic pastoralism in arid and semi-arid spaces from West through Central, East, and Southern Africa is regarded as critical to regional system resilience and food security. Although pastoral systems are highly adapted and adaptive to uncertainty and change, recent decades of severe climatic events and increasing resource pressure are pushing pastoral systems to adopt novel norms and practices. Importantly, forage residue conservation and private forage enclosures are becoming important practices among herders and non-herders alike. As one part of considering the relevance of these responses in shaping the future trajectory of transhumant pastoralism, we developed a multi-part intervention for measuring and observing preferences in pastoral systems, including a novel experimental game called GreenReserve, and tested it in Borana communities in northern Kenya. We found that GreenReserve captured dimensions of human-environment dilemmas faced by pastoralists, and shifted preferences around herd size, losses, and the use of time, as measured through a repeated discrete choice experiment. We found game groups with younger players and with more female players to include more exploration of pastoral adaptations such as the use of grass reserves and the harvesting of grass, as well as to have less conflict within the game. We also observed both preferences as well as game strategy to shift along the length of the study: as the region moved further into a drought and failed short rainy season, players were more conscious of large herds, bad rainfall-year losses, and made better use of reserves in game play, though it was beyond the scope of the current study to determine causality. Future research is needed to unpack the mechanisms underlying the variations and possible shift in preferences and subsequently help identify entry points for targeted interventions (including agricultural extension services) to support pastoral communities in climate change adaptation. Further, these first fieldwork findings suggest two key dimensions for expanded work beyond this study to identify whether mixed methods approaches such as this aid experiential learning in agriculture contexts.

Dietary diversity, eating habits, dietary patterns, food choice, and associated factors among adolescent girls: A convergent parallel mixed-method study in the Mion District of Ghana

Understanding adolescents’ diet and eating behaviours is crucial for informing public health strategies and policies, allowing interventions to be tailored effectively to enhance dietary patterns and improve overall health and quality of life. This study examined dietary patterns, dietary diversity, eating habits, food choice and the factors influencing these among adolescent girls in the Mion District, Ghana. A convergent parallel mixed-method design employing in-depth interviews (n = 30), two focus group discussions (n = 10) and survey data from 882 mother-daughter pairs was used. Key findings indicate that approximately 90% of girls achieved the minimum dietary diversity for women of reproductive age (MDD-W), with most consuming three meals daily. Staples were eaten daily, while fruits and unhealthy foods were less frequently eaten. Moderate/severe food insecurity was negatively associated with the MDD-W, whereas larger household size was positively correlated with the MDD-W. Older girls were less likely to eat breakfast, while household crop farm diversity increased the odds of eating supper on weekends. Moderate/severe food insecurity was inversely associated with intake of animal-sourced foods (ASFs), fruit, and unhealthy foods but positively correlated with vegetable consumption in the past month. Maternal non-literacy was linked to a lower intake of unhealthy foods, while specific ethnic backgrounds negatively influenced ASF intake. Wealthier households demonstrated higher consumption of staples. Qualitatively, health considerations, availability, taste, and cravings were major influencers of food choices. Food aversions were often tied to intolerance, fatigue from consuming the same foods repeatedly, and preferences related to taste and texture. These findings underscore the need for targeted nutritional interventions considering socio-economic and household factors to improve adolescent girls’ dietary habits and overall health.

Social learning through water games in the field

Trends and associated factors of animal source foods consumption among children aged 6–23 months in Bangladesh: Evidence from four consecutive national surveys

Animal source foods (ASF) are nutrient-dense and essential for the growth and development of children. The Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2022 reported that approximately two-thirds of children aged 6–23 months consumed eggs/flesh foods. However, overall consumption patterns, trends, and factors influencing ASF intake among children in Bangladesh were not well-documented. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the trends and associated factors of ASF consumption among children aged 6–23 months in Bangladesh. A total of 9401 children were extracted from four consecutive BDHS (2011, 2014, 2017/18, and 2022). The Cochran-Armitage test was conducted to assess the trends in ASF consumption, while a two-stage multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression was performed to identify the associated factors. The consumption of ASF significantly increased to 79.1% in 2017/18 from 67% in 2011 but decreased to 73.3% in 2022. ASF consumption was found to be higher among children whose mothers were educated (AOR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.30–1.98), employed in either agricultural (AOR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.04–1.54) or non-agricultural (AOR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.07–1.72) activities, pregnant (AOR = 2.54, 95% CI = 1.66–3.87), had received ANC 1–3 times (AOR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.20–1.72) or ≥4 times (AOR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.29–1.95), and was exposed to media (AOR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.04–1.39). Furthermore, consumption increased with increasing the age of children, and the wealth of their families. However, children who experienced illness were less likely to consume ASF (AOR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.68–0.86). The recent declines in ASF consumption emphasize the need for targeted interventions to increase ASF consumption among children in Bangladesh.

Digital marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages to children and adolescents: A narrative review

With growing access to electronic devices and time spent online, the food and beverage industry increasingly uses digital media to market unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages (high in unhealthy fats, sugars, and/or salt and often highly processed) to children and adolescents. We conducted a narrative review of the global evidence on digital marketing of these foods and drinks and studied policies and regulations in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. Evidence was limited to a few high, upper-middle and lower-middle income countries where children and adolescents were found to be extensively exposed to the digital marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages and this exposure increased with age. A wide range of purposefully designed marketing techniques were used. Exposure to the digital marketing of unhealthy foods appears to be followed by increased consumption, but the quality of the evidence was limited. Accurate assessment of exposure was a shortcoming in most studies. Stronger evidence will require studies with more rigorous designs that minimize confounding and objectively quantify individual exposure. Mandatory comprehensive policies are needed that limit exposure of children and adolescents to the marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages irrespective of the medium or platform they use. The experience of LAC countries may provide insights for the development of effective policies in other countries. Novel technologies that can be used by governments to monitor digital marketing regulations are needed.

Links between protein-source diversity, household behavior, and protein consumption inadequacy in the Indian rural semi-arid tropics

Our study analyzes the determinants, sources, and levels of protein consumption among 785 households across nine districts in six Indian states in the semi-arid tropics. We found that 80% of these households consumed less protein than recommended and relied on cereals for 60–75% of their protein intake. Notably, even when protein-rich foods are accessible to households, they still consume them insufficiently. We found that their protein intake deficiency is driven by a lack of diversity of protein sources (in particular, legumes, millets, and livestock), as well as by a dearth of women’s education and role in household decision-making and low incomes and assets. We advocate for initiatives to raise nutrition awareness, empower women, and adopt a nutrition-centric farming approach.

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Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food security in Nigeria

Variations in agricultural and energy prices have direct and cascading effects on economic and agri-food systems. In this study, we developed a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of the global price shocks induced by the Russia-Ukraine war on welfare and food security in Nigeria. In addition, we analysed the effectiveness of different policy options, specifically a reduction in indirect taxes and an increase in cash transfers to affected households, in the short and long term. The results showed that the shocks create opportunities for Nigeria, particularly in the trade, livestock, and agricultural sectors. This leads to an increase in GDP, employment, and incomes. However, these effects fade over time due to the rise in food prices that negatively affects food consumption and some food security indicators. Moreover, the comparative analysis of mitigation scenarios revealed that targeted public cash transfers to households are more effective than reduction in consumption taxes on food in mitigating the negative effects on households.