IFPRI Publications: Journal Articles

The complex economics of a complete ban on child labor in the cobalt supply chain: The case of the DR Congo

Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: The case of maize in Myanmar

Private sector promotion of agricultural technologies: Experimental evidence from Nigeria

Private sector agricultural businesses are critical for scaling new and potentially environmentally-friendly technologies, though much attention has focused on public agricultural investment. Working with a private firm, we conduct an experiment testing the effectiveness of alternative marketing strategies for promoting the adoption of urea super granule fertilizer (USG) among rice farmers in Nigeria. We disentangle the effects of price discount vouchers and the firm’s standard marketing package. We find that the firm’s standard marketing increases the adoption of USG fertilizer by 24 percentage points while reducing prilled urea utilization by 17 percentage points. Discount vouchers increase adoption of USG by an additional eight percentage points, but are not profitable for the firm. Although the adoption of USG leads to substantial environmental benefits by reducing nitrogen loss, farmer rice yields did not increase. Thus, despite the potential public benefits, private incentives facing firms and farmers are insufficient to drive scaling after a one-year intervention.

Herder-related violence, labor allocation, and the gendered response of agricultural households

Violent conflict between nomadic herders and settled agricultural communities in Nigeria occurs as both groups clash over the use of land and natural resources, in part, due to a changing climate. We generate theory and evidence to study the labor responses of individuals within agricultural households to herder-related violence and consider a “shadow of violence” mechanism, whereby previous exposure to a violent event alters labor responses to a recent event. Using panel data from 2010 through 2019, we highlight how exposure to violence can lead to differing responses in the planting or harvest seasons and among men or women. In the planting season, among both men and women living in households with no previous exposure to herder-related violence, we find that exposure (i.e., singular exposure) leads to a reduction in household enterprise work, but among households with previous exposure experience, exposure (i.e., repeated exposure) leads to an increase in household enterprise work. Meanwhile, repeated exposure to herder-related violence reduces agricultural work among men only. This leads total hours worked to decline in response to singular exposure and to increase in response to repeated exposure especially among women. In the harvest season, we find that singular exposure increases agricultural work among both men and women, but repeated exposure reduces agricultural work among men only. JEL Codes: E26, E29, I31, Q12

Social identity and crisis resilience in agriculture: Caste, gender, and migration in Nepal

Capacity to weather economic shocks is often mediated by social identity, which in turn determines access to social, economic and physical capital. We study the repercussions of a large economic shock on access to agriculture inputs, agricultural extension, output markets, and the consequent effects on income and livelihoods in rural Nepal. We focus on heterogeneity by caste, gender, and household migration status, using panel survey data from 2300 maize farmers. We observe prolonged effects of the 2020 pandemic induced lockdowns on the incomes of farmers, driven in part by reduced remittances. The shock intensified inequalities in agriculture, especially for female farmers and farmers from disadvantaged caste groups. As the economic impacts of multiple crises continue, policy measures to support the agriculture sector should target disadvantaged farmers, while simultaneously implementing long term strategies to shield the agriculture sector from future shocks.

The agrifood-system wage gap and structural transformation: cross-country evidence

Achieving transformational sustainable land Intensification: Integrated general equilibrium and portfolio analysis for Senegal

Feeding a growing global population while conserving natural resources remains a central challenge of Sustainable Intensification (SI). Despite decades of SI efforts, cropland expansion in many developing countries continues to accelerate, contributing to deforestation and biodiversity loss. Even with observed increases in crop yields, studies suggest that farmers continue to expand cropland, underscoring the need to consider market dynamics and the economywide effects of productivity gains. This study offers a new perspective on achieving transformational sustainable land intensification by treating farming activities as investment decisions shaped by risk and return under production and markets uncertainties. Unlike the traditional SI strategies that focus on efficiency gains through improved inputs or agronomic practices, we apply an optimal portfolio analysis to cropland allocation, aiming to enhance farming efficiency by considering market interconnections across sectors. Using Senegal as a case study, we demonstrate that adopting an optimal diversification strategy on new cropland investment could reduce land expansion needs by up to 68 % by 2030. This strategy not only helps mitigate emissions and reduce water footprint but also enhances crop biodiversity. Socioeconomic and environmental benefits are found to be greater when the country promotes high-value crops in its portfolio, such as fruits and vegetables, compared to grain crops. Our findings also contribute to ongoing debates around land-sparing versus land-sharing strategies and offer new insights into the drivers of cropland expansion in light of current global land use patterns.

Women’s tenure security on collective lands: A conceptual framework

Within discussions of land and resource rights, there is growing attention to women’s rights, mostly in terms of household and individual rights to private property. This leaves unanswered questions about whether and how women’s land rights can be secured under collective tenure, upon which billions of people worldwide depend. There is an important gap in conceptual tools, empirical understanding, and policy recommendations on this topic. To address this gap and lay the foundations for a sound body of empirical studies and appropriate policies, we develop a conceptual framework to improve understanding of women’s land rights under collective tenure. We discuss what secure tenure for women on collective lands would entail, then what factors would affect women’s tenure security. We give attention to particularities of rangelands, forests, and other types of collective lands as well as commonalities across types. A key theme that emerges is that for women to have secure tenure under collective tenure, the collective (group) itself must have tenure security and the women must have secure rights within this collective. The latter requires us to consider the governance structures, how men and women access and control land, and the extent to which women have voice and power within the collective. More consistent analyses of collective tenure systems using the conceptual framework presented in this paper can help to identify which action resources are important for groups to secure rights to collective lands, and for women to advocate for their rights within the group.

A comparative study of the legal and regulatory dimension of seed sector development in Sub-Saharan Africa using regulatory systems maps: The case of Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda

Agency and behavior change in agricultural research for development: New directions for guiding agri-food system transformations

CONTEXT Agri-food system transformations require change across sectors and actors within the system. Initiatives contributing to these changes need to connect system change processes to individual and collective agency and behaviors. OBJECTIVE We propose a conceptual framework on agency and behavior change for transforming agri-food systems (ACT framework). ACT emphasizes agri-food system actors’ behaviors with attention to their power, agency, and the influence of structural agri-food system elements. Researchers can apply ACT to assess an initiative’s contributions to changes in system elements through individual and collective behaviors. METHODS We conducted literature reviews and key informant interviews for 29 initiative case studies. Using ACT, we identified patterns in terms of initiatives’ targeted actors, behaviors, and the factors shaping actors’ agency and behavior. We then applied ACT in an initiative in Zimbabwe to develop a theory of change that links behavior change pathways with broader systems transformation. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The reviewed initiatives focused heavily on shaping producers’ behavior through knowledge transfer, less often considering other actors and structural challenges and opportunities. Key informants frequently reported enablers and impediments to achieve initiative outcomes that were associated with structural system elements. Few were able to articulate their initiative’s theory of change and underlying assumptions. SIGNIFICANCE ACT can support a more diverse and theory-based exploration of agri-food system initiatives’ target actors, behaviors, and factors shaping behaviors. Development professionals can apply the ACT framework to design more effective TOCs that attend to diverse actor groups and leverage the factors influencing these actors’ agency and behaviors.

Perspective: Growth monitoring and promotion as an opportunity to improve early childhood development

Growth monitoring and promotion (GMP) visits provide a frequent contact point with caregivers which can be an opportunity for the promotion of early child development (ECD). Using a combination of quantitative analyses of longitudinal and cross-sectional data and a review of the literature, we investigated whether the GMP platform could improve ECD by identifying children at risk of poor development and delivering responsive parenting education to caregivers of young children. Cross-sectional and lagged regression analyses and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) indicated that growth indices were not accurate predictors of concurrent and later child development. Rather, validated tools, such as the Ages and Stages Questionnaire or the Survey of Well-being of Young Children, could be utilized during GMP visits to screen individual children for suboptimal development. Through a review of published literature on ECD interventions, we identified 10 light-touch ECD interventions which could feasibly be implemented during GMP visits, but only half have been evaluated for their effectiveness. Our findings demonstrate that, while growth indices cannot accurately identify children at risk of suboptimal development, the GMP platform could offer an opportunity to screen children for suboptimal development and to deliver ECD interventions. Further evidence on the implementation and effectiveness of light-touch parenting programs, however, is required.

Profiling Chinese entrepreneurs

Integrated land systems for sustainable food production and biodiversity conservation in the semi-arid to moist tropics: Stakeholder perspectives from Andhra Pradesh, India

Land systems must urgently be transformed for social and environmental sustainability, which necessitates a better integration of food system and biodiversity governance. This is particularly pronounced in the south-Indian state Andhra Pradesh, where one of the largest agroecological transitions globally, namely Zero Budget Natural Farming (ZBNF), is currently underway, but involvement of conservation scientists and practitioners has been minimal and policy spheres are disjunct. Here, we report the results of a multi-stakeholder exercise to ascertain the multi-scalar and multi-institutional transformations needed for Andhra Pradesh ‘s landscapes to deliver both food and biodiversity targets. To achieve a vision of an equitable and sustainable food system and of multifunctional and nature-positive land systems, we advocate for an end to harmful subsidies, improvements in infrastructures and social organisations, dietary shifts, and creation of both supporting financial structures and sustainable and transparent value chains. We stress that approaches should be participatory and link across policy domains and scales, bridging bottom-up and top-down perspectives, and with spatial planning critical to balancing land system objectives. Specifically, we stress that the ZBNF transition needs to be better aligned with state-level conservation strategies to maximise biodiversity benefits. Top priority knowledge needs include quantifying the multidimensional performance and scaling-potential of agroecological systems, the effectiveness of different conservation interventions, and how different land system objectives trade off against each other. Our work highlights a lack of data and capacity sharing, which can be addressed through intersectoral partnerships and collaborative programmes to create effective, research-based policies and land management strategies.

Genetic control of seed iron and zinc concentration in Rwandan common bean population revealed by the Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS)

Common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is one of the most abundantly consumed legume crops as foods worldwide. In many African countries, this crop is an important staple food because of its rich nutrients. The Great Lakes region of Central Africa, which includes Rwanda, the nation with the highest per capita consumption of common beans worldwide, is known to be a center of common bean diversity in Africa. Increasing the amount of iron and zinc in common bean for biofortification has been a key breeding goal in Rwanda and other countries. In this study, using 192 accessions, including local landraces from Rwanda, breeding materials, released varieties, and others, we performed genome wide association studies (GWAS) to determine the loci governing those traits in addition to other agronomic traits. We identified a locus that was strongly associated with seed zinc concentration and candidate genes. The information might be a great help for marker-assisted breeding of this trait in common bean.

Climate and weather services can enhance Ethiopian farmers’ resilience to climate change: Economy-wide impact analysis

Weather and climate services (WCS) are particularly important in Sub-Saharan Africa, where weather-dependent agriculture is the main source of livelihood, and where erratic weather patterns and extreme weather events have major impacts on rural livelihoods and food security. However, despite their importance, their effects on the agriculture sector and the overall economy are not well understood. For the case of Ethiopia, we use a computable general equilibrium modeling approach with the latest Ethiopian social accounting matrix data to estimate the potential contribution of WCS to macroeconomic variables, including growth in gross domestic product nationally and by sector. The analysis incorporates results of a separate econometric analysis of household survey data from five major regions in Ethiopia, which showed WCS use is associated with increased agricultural productivity. We estimate that increased agricultural productivity associated with WCS contributes to overall economic growth of more than 6 %, with a likely positive effect on farmers’ resilience to climate variability and change. The positive impact of WCS on agricultural productivity propagate to the overall economy, as evidenced by the considerable positive effect on GDP especially from the more climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture.

Do cash transfer programmes affect child anaemia? Results From a meta-analysis

Childhood anaemia is common and debilitating. Nutrition-specific policies are effective for addressing anaemia in many contexts but less is known about nutrition-sensitive policies such as cash transfers. We reviewed over 4000 studies and gathered 26 estimates of the effect of cash transfer programmes on childhood haemoglobin and anaemia. Overall, neither the impact of cash on haemoglobin (0.065 d/L, CI [−0.054, 0.184]) nor on anaemia prevalence (−0.092, CI [−1.227, 1.042]) were significant. While cash on its own had basically a null effect, programmes that provided cash in combination with other interventions such as behaviour change communication or nutritional supplements were more successful. The impact of social protection on haemoglobin and anaemia is surprisingly understudied compared to height, on which a previous study found well over 100 impacts of cash transfer programmes. Overall impacts of cash transfer programmes on haemoglobin and anaemia are weak: evidence is inconclusive at best. Cash transfer programmes are more successful in combination with other programmes providing education and/or nutritional supplements.

Accuracy of using weight and length in children under 24 months to screen for early childhood obesity: A systematic review

The global increase in early childhood overweight and obesity has prompted interest in early prediction of overweight and obesity to allow timely intervention and prevent lifelong consequences. A systematic review was conducted to assess the accuracy and feasibility of predicting overweight and obesity in individual three to seven-year-old children using data available in healthcare and community settings on children under 24 months of age. This review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42024509603) and followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. From 7,943 unique articles identified through PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, and Google Scholar, 14 studies met the inclusion criteria, 13 from high-income countries and one from a middle-income country. These studies evaluated the accuracy of predicting childhood overweight or obesity in individual children using anthropometrics-alone or multiple-predictor models. Anthropometrics-alone models yielded areas under the curve (AUCs) ≥0.56 with expert guidance and ≥0.77 with machine learning. Multiple-predictor models yielded AUC ≥0.68 with expert guidance and ≥0.76 with machine learning. The inclusion of child, parental, and community predictors improved predictive accuracy but led to greater variation in performance across models. Models were more accurate when children were older at the initial assessment, multiple assessments were made, and the time between assessment and outcome prediction was shorter. Prediction models with an AUC ≥0.70 used machine learning to optimize variable selection, limiting their practicality for broad-scale implementation in healthcare or community settings. There is insufficient evidence on the accuracy of overweight and obesity prediction models for children in low- and middle-income countries. Existing prediction models are not well-suited for broad-scale screening of individual children for risk of early childhood overweight or obesity.

A comparison of the effects of local and EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations on selected economic and environmental outcomes in India

The global discourse is nearly unanimous that dietary transitions are crucial to achieve sustainability goals. In this context, healthy dietary recommendations offer demand-side solutions towards minimizing environmental impacts from food production. However, these guidelines have also faced some criticism for their blanket approach and limited consideration of regional preferences. Using a validated food-economy-environment integrated modelling framework, we compare between two types of healthy diets − the globally recommended EAT-Lancet diets and Indian government’s National Institute of Nutrition (NIN) local diets − by examining their impacts on agricultural production, agricultural commodity prices, food expenditures, trade impacts, Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and water withdrawals. Our results suggest that the adoption of regional recommendations (NIN diets) lead to better outcomes for select economic and environmental indicators. When India shifts to NIN diet, its domestic demand for cereal crops decreases, leading to a 36 % reduction in cereal crop production by 2050 and change in demand for sugars and animal-sourced foods (ASFs). This has the potential to reduce commodity prices of food by upto 24 % by 2050. A shift to the NIN diet in India reduces methane (CH4) emissions by 36 % and N2O by 35 % compared to business-as-usual, performing better than the EAT-Lancet diet, which reduces CH4 emissions by 13 %. Water withdrawals reduce almost by the same value under both the dietary scenarios primarily due to lesser dependence on cereal crops and livestock products. These findings remain consistent in our sensitivity analysis, with varying global trade scenarios, offering greater benefits of food systems transformation through liberal trade policies. Our analysis underscores the pivotal role of regional inclusivity in global assessments, enhancing our comprehension of how food systems can be reimagined to align with both food security and environmental sustainability.

To defer or to differ: Experimental evidence on the role of cash transfers in Nigerian couples’ decision–making

Contributions of District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2) to maternal and child health service performance in Ethiopia: An interrupted time series mixed-methods study

Background The District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2) is the primary digital platform for health management information systems (HMIS) in Ethiopia, aligning with the nation’s digitization strategy. Despite widespread implementation, its effectiveness on key health service indicators, particularly maternal and child health (MCH) services, remain unclear. Objective This study aimed to evaluate the contribution of DHIS2 on data use and the performance of selected MCH indicators in Ethiopia, comparing data before and after the implementation of DHIS2. Methods We analysed data from primary health care units (PHUs) across five diverse regions of Ethiopia, encompassing urban, agrarian, and pastoralist settings. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining quantitative and qualitative methods to provide a comprehensive understanding of the data. The quantitative component involved examining performance reports of selected maternal and child health (MCH) indicators from 2013 to 2022 to assess changes before and after the implementation of the District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2). Data were collected electronically and analysed using descriptive statistics and interrupted time series (ITS) analyses to identify trends and patterns. The qualitative component included interviews and focus group discussions with health workers and stakeholders to explore contextual factors influencing MCH service utilization and performance. The data were analysed thematically using OpenCode 4.1 software. Results The implementation of DHIS2 significantly contributed to the enhancement of MCH data utilization within PHU facilities. This improvement supported decision-making processes in various aspects of maternal and child healthcare delivery, including target setting, resource allocation, program monitoring, and clinical service provision. Specifically, DHIS2 led to increased monthly mean performance of key indicators such as antenatal care visits, skilled birth attendance, and immunization rates. Notable improvements in service delivery were observed, with significant increases in institutional delivery rates over time. Conclusions The study highlights DHIS2’s significant contribution to improving MCH services in Ethiopia, with increased institutional delivery rates and ANC coverage reflecting enhanced data-driven decision-making. Most facilities relied on DHIS2 for resource allocation and program monitoring, though challenges like offline usage and accessibility persist. To maximize impact, improving offline data management, training staff, leveraging real-time reporting, and addressing accessibility through connectivity investments are recommended.

What adults in rural South Asia eat and when they eat it: Evidence from Bangladesh, India, and Nepal

Reshaping Chinese agrifood systems to enhance human nutrition: A scoping review of research

Key narratives around agroecological transitions. A systematic literature review of the current debate

As agrifood systems face mounting socio-ecological challenges, agroecology is increasingly viewed as a comprehensive approach to achieving sustainability. However, the public debate over whether this is the most suitable approach or whether it is viable at a large scale remains open. Examining how this debate unfolds is crucial as it can shape the future of agrifood systems. This paper contributes by conducting a systematic literature review to identify key perspectives and actors shaping the public debate around agroecology. Perspectives are framed around three narratives labeled “supportive,” “skeptical,” and “pragmatic.” These narratives are articulated across sub-narratives in six highly debated areas: (1)initial transition costs, (2) input use and supply chain systems, (3) yield potential, (4) labor, (5) scalability, and (6) market access. The review also accounts for a broad group of actors participating in the debate from multiple – sometimes ambiguous and fluid – perspectives. The review shows that mobilizing the debate to enable agroecological transitions requires an integrative approach under-scored by knowledge co-creation and collective learning. Based on insights from participatory approaches, we provide considerations for making these processes work and highlight areas that require further examination

Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate shocks in Ethiopia

The Ethiopian economy relies heavily on rainfed agriculture for income generation, export earnings, and rural livelihoods. However, projections from climate scenarios predict high frequency and intense extreme agro-climatic events, posing significant and growing risks to Ethiopia’s agri-food system and overall economy. This study evaluates the economic impacts of recurrent climate shocks on Ethiopia through 2040 and assesses the contribution of alternative investment options in lessening some of these impacts. Findings reveal that recurrent climate shocks could reduce Ethiopia’s cumulative GDP by up to 17 percent (or approximately US$ 534.3 billion) by 2040 compared to a “no climate change” baseline. These economic losses are predominantly concentrated in the agricultural sector, disproportionately affecting rural households and poorer urban populations. Strategic investments in irrigation infrastructure and hydroelectricity generation emerge as effective measures to mitigate some of the adverse effects of recurrent climate variability, underscoring the importance of proactive and targeted climate adaptation strategies for Ethiopia’s economic resilience. Results further indicate that significantly mitigating the socio-economic impacts of climate and weather shocks requires scaling up investments and diversifying adaptation strategies. The insights derived from this analysis can be informative to economies with similar structures.

Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the world’s largest projected increase in demand for food. Increased dependence on imports makes SSA vulnerable to geopolitical and economic risks, while further expansion of agricultural land is environmentally harmful. Cereals, in particular, maize, millet, rice, sorghum, and wheat, take nearly 50% of the cropland and 43% of the calories and proteins consumed in the region. Demand is projected to double until 2050. Here, we assess recent developments in cereal self-sufficiency and provide outlooks until 2050 under different intensification, area expansion, and climate change scenarios. We use detailed data for ten countries. Cereal self-sufficiency increased between 2010 and 2020 from 84 to 92% despite the 29% population increase. The production increase was achieved by increased yields per hectare (44%), area expansion (34%), and a shift from millet to the higher yielding maize (22%). Outlooks for 2050 are less pessimistic than earlier assessments because of the larger 2020 baseline area, higher shares of maize and somewhat less steep projected population increase. Yet, to halt further area expansion, a drastic trend change in annual yield increase from the present 20 to 58 kg ha−1 y−1 is needed to achieve cereal self-sufficiency. While such yield increases have been achieved elsewhere and are feasible given the yield potentials in SSA, they require structural changes and substantial agronomic, socioeconomic, and political investments. We estimate that amounts of added nitrogen need to at least triple to achieve such yield improvements, but it is essential that this comes with improved context-specific agronomy.

High-frequency monitoring enables machine learning–based forecasting of acute child malnutrition for early warning

The number of acutely food insecure people worldwide has doubled since 2017, increasing demand for early warning systems (EWS) that can predict food emergencies. Advances in computational methods, and the growing availability of near-real time remote sensing data, suggest that big data approaches might help meet this need. But such models have thus far exhibited low predictive skill with respect to subpopulation-level acute malnutrition indicators. We explore whether updating training data with high frequency monitoring of the predictand can help improve machine learning models’ predictive performance with respect to child acute malnutrition by directly learning the dynamic determinants of rapidly evolving acute malnutrition crises. We combine supervised machine learning methods and remotely sensed feature sets with time series child anthropometric data from EWS’ sentinel sites to generate accurate forecasts of acute malnutrition at operationally meaningful time horizons. These advances can enhance intertemporal and geographic targeting of humanitarian response to impending food emergencies that otherwise have unacceptably high case fatality rates.

An environmentally-extended input-output analysis of province-level carbon emissions from energy use in China’s food system

Potential decarbonization for balancing local and non-local perishable food supply in megacities

Ensuring urban food security while reducing carbon emissions from food systems is a key challenge. Food localization can reduce transport emissions; however, its role in agricultural production emissions reductions is unclear. Here, we explored the effects of localization of seven perishables, incorporating emissions from production and cold-chain logistics, in Beijing and Shanghai, China; determined decarbonization under different scenarios by increasing or decreasing the localization, with or without constrains, of each food category (balancing strategy). The results show that every 1% increase in the localization of vegetables, poultry, and aquatic products decreased 2020 emissions by 0.4–1.9 tCO2e, but for beef and lamb, it increased emissions by 0.2–2.9 tCO2e. Localization decreased cold-chain emission shares for all foods. The balancing strategy with constraints reduced emissions by 0.76 MtCO2e (5%) and 0.44 MtCO2e (2%) in 2020 in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively. Utilizing urban agriculture at all costs (i.e., without constraints) further reduced emissions by a factor of 3–4. Over 90% of Beijing’s emissions added by 2035 under the business-as-usual scenario were projected to be offset by the strategy. In Shanghai, the strategy could reduce emissions by an additional 0.44 MtCO2e. The results indicate that expanding imports of carbon-intensive ruminant meat to replace local production and reallocating urban resources to vegetables, poultry, and aquatic products could lead to more sustainable food supplies in megacities. Further development of cold-chain logistics is expected to reduce emissions in synergy with the balancing strategy. Our results could help inform better food system planning in megacities.

The influence of environmental cues on behavioral response: An assessment of the Protective Action Decision Model in the context of COVID-19

Effect of intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine on maternal gestational weight gain in low-income and middle-income countries: A systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials

Background Studies have consistently demonstrated beneficial effects of intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy (IPTp) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) on reducing malaria infection and improving birth outcomes among pregnant women in endemic areas. However, data on its impact on maternal gestational weight gain (GWG) are very limited. We aimed to conduct a two-stage meta-analysis of individual participant data to examine the effect of IPT with SP on GWG compared to other antimalarial regimens. Methods In this systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis, we conducted electronic literature searches of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library to identify eligible RCTs among pregnant women. We did not apply any language or publication date restrictions in the search. The initial search was conducted on August 4th, 2021, and updated on February 15th, 2025. The study-level inclusion criteria were as follow: 1) the studies must be randomised controlled trials (RCTs), which could be individually randomised, cluster randomised, or a combination of both; 2) study participants were pregnant at enrollment or enrolled before pregnancy and followed up in pregnancy; 3) studies were conducted in a low-income, lower-middle-income, or upper-middle-income economy defined by the World Bank country classification for the 2021 fiscal year; 4) antimalaria and/or antibiotic interventions were provided during pregnancy; and 5) the intervention was provided alone or in combination with a co-intervention that was similar across arms. Since we focused on the intervention’s effect on GWG in generally healthy pregnant women, we applied the following study-level exclusion criteria: 1) studies without any measures of maternal weight during pregnancy; and 2) studies conducted exclusively among women with pre-existing health conditions, such as anemia, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, or diabetes. Within each eligible trial, we further applied individual-level criteria to identify eligible individual participants, including 1) singleton pregnancies, 2) at least one weight measurement in the second or third trimesters, 3) known gestational ages at the time of weight measurements, and 4) availability of maternal height measure. Risk of bias for each trial was assessed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool, version 2 (RoB 2). GWG percent adequacy (%) and total weight gain (gram) at delivery were calculated according to the Institute of Medicine 2009 guidelines. Linear regression models were used to estimate mean difference (MD) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in GWG percent adequacy and total weight gain across intervention arms. Results from individual trials were pooled using fixed-effects inverse-variance meta-analysis models. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42023428794. Findings A total of 97 trials were identified in the search and sough for IPD, of them eight trials including 8550 pregnant women were included in the current analysis. Women who received IPTp with only 2 doses of SP had a greater GWG percent adequacy (MD: 5.61%; 95% CI: 2.61%, 8.60%; P = 0.0002; I2 = 84.26%), and total GWG in grams at delivery (MD: 702; 95% CI: 321, 1083; P = 0.0003; I2 = 83.78%) than those who received weekly chloroquine as prophylaxis. No significant differences in GWG percent adequacy (MD: −0.53%; 95% CI: −2.89%%, 1.83%; P = 0.66; I2 = 0.00%) or GWG grams (MD: −80; 95% CI: −380, 221; P = 0.60; I2 = 0.00%) were found between IPTp with 2-dose SP and monthly IPTp-SP (3-dose or more). Compared to women who received monthly IPTp-SP, those who received monthly IPTp with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (IPTp-DHA + PPQ) had a lower GWG percent adequacy (MD: −5.56%; 95% CI: −8.22%, −2.90%; P < 0.0001; I2 = 13.47%) and total GWG in grams (MD: −723; 95% CI: −1037, −410; P < 0.0001; I2 = 46.29%). Adding azithromycin to an antimalarial regimen was associated with a greater GWG percent adequacy (MD: 2.75%; 95% CI: 0.46%, 5.05%; P = 0.19; I2 = 0.00%) and total GWG in gram at delivery (MD: 485; 95% CI: 210, 760; P = 0.0005; I2 = 75.66%). Interpretation Our findings suggest that monthly IPTp-SP has superior effect on GWG compared to weekly chloroquine or IPTp-DHA + PPQ in malaria-endemic areas. The result provides further evidence indicating that IPTp-SP improves maternal weight gain, an important determinant of fetal growth beyond its antimalarial effects. Due to the limited number of trials with weight and height measures available for the IPD meta-analysis we were likely underpowered to detect any significant difference between 2-dose SP and monthly IPTp-SP. More efforts are warranted to examine the potential beneficial effect of adding azithromycin or DHA + PPQ to the standard antimalarial regimens.

Economic and food security impacts of climate disasters and mitigation policies: Insights from Nigeria

Climate information services enhance farmers’ resilience to climate change: Impacts on agricultural productivity

Ethiopia is a climate “hotspot” where the variable and changing climate periodically threatens agricultural production, food security, and human well-being. Using two-rounds of Feed the Future program survey data that cover 3,799 farming households in five major regions in Ethiopia, and employing panel data estimation methods, we analyze the potential impact of weather and climate services (WCS) on agricultural productivity and farmers’ resilience in Ethiopia. We found that access to WCS increases the productivity of maize and wheat crops by 27 % and 17 %, respectively. These estimates are comparable to or higher than conventional yield-increasing production technologies such as fertilizer and improved seeds. Despite such a strong productivity effect, access to WCS is limited to only 18 % of the surveyed farmers. This study adds to the existing body of evidence on the significant positive impact of WCS, and affirms the importance of weather and climate information service products to enhance farmers’ resilience to climate risk. Further analyses are needed to estimate the value to Ethiopia’s smallholder farmers, especially those who are most vulnerable to climate-related hazards, of increasing investment in improving seasonal climate forecasts, mainstreaming weather and climate services in the agricultural extension system, including through National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS), and supporting farmer decision-making with climate-informed digital advisory tools and training.

Food avoidance taboos during breastfeeding are widespread and associated with large declines in maternal dietary diversity in Myanmar

Background Maternal food avoidance practices during pregnancy and breastfeeding have been documented in several Asian countries, but their prevalence and impacts on dietary diversity are not well quantified. Objectives This study: (1) assessed the prevalence of beliefs around maternal food avoidance during breastfeeding in Myanmar; (2) explored the correlates of women’s food avoidance beliefs as well as mother’s stated rationales for avoiding specific foods; and (3) assessed how minimum dietary diversity (MDD-W) of mothers changed from pregnancy to postpartum/breastfeeding. Methods We added a novel nutrition module to a nationally representative survey (N=12,353) in Myanmar to estimate the prevalence of beliefs around maternal food avoidance during breastfeeding and re-surveyed a subsample of mothers (N=155) to understand avoidance of specific foods. We then used a high-frequency panel of mothers in Yangon (N=3,541) to assess how MDD-W changed from pregnancy to postpartum/breastfeeding using mother fixed effects regressions. Results 40 percent of adult women in Myanmar believe breastfeeding mothers should avoid at least one food group that nutritionists would typically define as a healthy (e.g. vegetables, fruits). Regression analysis indicated these beliefs were less prevalent among women with more education and nutritional knowledge, and with exposure to nutrition counselling from community health workers. Mothers rationalized food avoidance by referring to a variety of perceived maternal and child health risks. MDD-W of mothers in the Yangon panel fell by 43 percentage points from pregnancy to the first month after birth, including significant declines in eight of the ten MDD-W food groups. MDD-W remained significantly lower up to six months after birth than during pregnancy. Conclusions Food avoidance taboos during breastfeeding pose a potentially serious risk of micronutrient deficiencies for mothers and infants and warrant more extensive monitoring in nutrition surveys and more research on how to redress these nutritionally harmful beliefs and practices.

Rural institutions and the technical efficiency of teff production in Ethiopia

We examine the effect of rural institutions on plot-level technical efficiency of teff production. We account for differences in production technology, access to the market, plot characteristics, and weather shocks across plots and investigate the robustness of the effects of rural institutions on technical efficiency across various specifications. Using a large and detailed cross-section of teff plots, we find that teff output could be increased by approximately 25 percent with the available inputs and technology through improved technical efficiency. The magnitude of technical inefficiency is robust to alternative functional forms and variable specifications. Community discussion groups and distance to the nearest agricultural co-operative have a positive relationship with technical efficiency, highlighting their potential to enhance agricultural productivity. However, we find limited evidence on the relationship between co-operative membership, visits with extension and technical efficiency of teff producers. Our results show that when studying the impact of new programs and policies in agriculture, it is important to look beyond just whether farmers are members of co-operatives. We might consider other factors, such as how much access they have to co-operative services. It is crucial for policymakers to consider implementing targeted interventions to share information on best management practices and agricultural technologies in order to address the efficiency gap in teff production. JEL classification: D02, D24, C54, P13, N57

Assessing the overall benefits of programs enhancing human capital and equity: A new method with an application to school meals

Urbanization shapes West African diets throughout the rural-urban continuum

Our understanding of how urbanization interacts with food consumption has been hindered by the lack of a unified definition of what constitutes an “urban” area. The use of a binary designation also fails to capture the complexity and diversity of settlement types and results in a focus on the “rural-urban divide”. This study combines nationally representative survey data on household food consumption from eight West African countries with geospatial data capturing the urbanization gradient following the global definition of the Degree or Urbanization. This allows us to analyse consumption of different food groups, diet quality, and macronutrient intakes throughout the rural-urban continuum. We find robust evidence of an increasing rural-urban gradient in total food consumption, as well as a gradual shift away from traditional staple foods, towards increased consumption of foods that require less or no preparation. Residing in more urbanized areas is associated with greater diet diversity and increased consumption of vegetables and animal-source foods. Yet, rising intakes of unhealthy foods and fats in particular along the rural-urban continuum contribute to a deterioration of diet quality. While the estimated effects are strongest in cities, these diet transitions also take place in peri-urban areas and rural areas. This confirms the importance of moving beyond a simple rural-urban dichotomy in research and policy related to food consumption. The demonstrated importance of foods eaten away from home across the entire rural-urban continuum further underscores the need for more research to better understand this sector and explore how it can contribute to both employment and food security.

Unpacking power dynamics and women’s economic empowerment in polygynous households in Burkina Faso

Objective We aim to describe power distributions in polygynous households and consider how these matter for the production and allocation of food-generating resources in western Burkina Faso, where there is a high prevalence of polygyny. Background Recent studies on polygyny focus on its likely negative consequences and mechanisms for explaining these outcomes using data from large multitopic surveys. These approaches fail to consider the underlying dynamics in polygynous households. Method As part of a 5-year mixed-methods evaluation of a nutrition- and gender-sensitive poultry value chain intervention in western Burkina Faso, we conducted a thematic analysis of 24 gender-disaggregated focus group discussions (265 individuals) and 24 semi-structured interviews in six communities. They focused on gender and power dynamics, food production, and food allocation with a specific focus on polygyny. Results Relationships among co-wives are often cooperative, though not necessarily warm, and typically hierarchical. Monogamous and polygynous marriage may support women’s empowerment in different domains. Polygynous co-wives may be able to divide care work, but first wives often control how labor is divided. In monogamous marriages, wives often make decisions jointly with their husbands, while in polygynous marriages, most co-wives are left out of decisions. In polygynous households, women are better able to maintain control over their earnings. Conclusion We discuss these findings in terms of their implications for studying polygynous households in quantitative surveys and in terms of how to better design and target interventions for this population.

A large-scale nutrition- and gender-sensitive poultry market-based program did not improve maternal and child diets in rural Burkina Faso: A cluster-randomized controlled trial

Background Livestock production interventions can improve consumption of animal-source foods and diet diversity, which may lead to improved micronutrient adequacy. Objective We assessed the effectiveness on maternal and child dietary outcomes of SELEVER, a livestock intervention designed to improve diets in rural Burkina Faso through training and market facilitation to improve poultry production; women’s empowerment activities; and nutrition and hygiene behavior change communication. Methods For a nonblinded cluster-randomized controlled trial, we randomly assigned 30 communes to SELEVER and 30 communes to control, of which 15 communes served as control for a narrow sample. Fifteen households were randomly selected in two villages per commune; of which 12 were included in the narrow sample. In the wide sample, we used ANCOVA to assess SELEVER’s effectiveness on dietary diversity in index children aged 2-4 years at baseline and in their caregivers, and on minimum acceptable diet in their siblings aged 6-23 months at measurement. In the narrow sample, we used difference-in-difference to assess SELEVER’s effectiveness on vitamin A, iron, and zinc prevalence of adequate intakes (PA) and mean PA of 11 micronutrients in index children and caregivers. Results We enrolled 1,767 index children, 1,766 caregivers and 412 siblings aged 6–23 months at endline in the wide sample, and 1,054 caregiver-child dyads in the narrow sample. In the wide sample, exposure to program activities was higher but moderate in SELEVER communities, with limited effects on dietary knowledge and practices and no effects on diet outcomes. The narrow sample showed a negative effect on zinc PA in children (-26 percentage points, P=0.020), and no effect on other outcomes. Conclusions A program focused on improving the productivity of and demand for nutritious foods did not improve micronutrient adequacy. Implementation strategy and bottlenecks may have limited the system transformations needed to produce measurable shifts toward healthier diets. The study was registered on the ISCRCTN registry (ISRCTN16686478); details are available at https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN16686478

Farm size and agricultural productivity of nutritious foods: Evidence from Ethiopia

Agri-food systems are transforming quickly in Africa. An important issue in the transformation process of agricultural production is the role of small farms. While many authors have looked at this question, one aspect that has received little attention is the role of small farms in the production of nutritious foods, an important topic given the low availability and relatively high prices of nutritious foods and the consequent low level of nutrition security in the continent. Using a unique large-scale dataset from Ethiopia—one of the largest countries in Africa that has been transforming rapidly—we look at the production of vegetables and dairy products. We find a strong association between farm size and partial productivity measured in terms of output, value of outputs and profit per hectare/cow, with productivity twice to four times as high for larger farms. These farms have substantially higher input expenditures as well as differences in farm technologies compared to small ones. Our findings have important implications for the debate on the role of small farms and nutritional improvements in the continent. JEL Classification: O13, Q12, Q18

Front-of-pack labels and young consumers: An experimental investigation of nutrition and sustainability claims in Chile

Impact assessment of Benazir Nashonuma Programme (BNP) on maternal, child health and nutritional status in Pakistan: A quasi-experimental study protocol

Introduction Maternal and child malnutrition is a significant public health concern in Pakistan, with 40% of children under five being stunted. In response, the Government of Pakistan initiated the Benazir Nashonuma Programme (BNP), a nutritional supplementation programme for pregnant women, mothers of children aged 0 to 23 months and children aged 6 to 24 months. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the BNP in reducing childhood stunting and improving maternal and child health outcomes. Methods and analysis A quasi-experimental longitudinal study comprising baseline, midline and endline surveys will be conducted across 18 districts (9 intervention and 9 control) in Pakistan. The surveys will use a two-stage cluster sampling method to enrol 13 200 children aged 0–59 months and their mothers from the Benazir Income Support Programme households. The primary outcome of interest is the prevalence of under-five stunting. We will use a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the impact by comparing the documented changes over time between the intervention and control groups. Ethics and dissemination This study will provide critical insights into the effectiveness of the BNP in addressing childhood undernutrition in Pakistan. The findings will inform policy and programmatic decisions aimed at reducing undernutrition in resource-constrained settings. Ethical approval has been obtained from the Ethics Review Committee of Aga Khan University and the Pakistan National Bioethics Committee. Trial registration number NCT06025786.

The political economy of agroecological transitions: Key analytical dimensions

There is a growing global interest in agroecology, yet agroecological transitions remain fraught with challenges. These include the need to reconfigure the productive and reproductive agrarian relations of unsustainable food systems and to rethink how we work with ecosystems. Using a political economy approach, we propose five key interrelated dimensions for analyzing agroecological transitions: (i) social metabolism; (ii) labor dynamics; (iii) markets and resources; (iv) social organization; and (iv) policies and politics. While these dimensions are often analyzed separately and to varying degrees, we argue that together they contribute to a comprehensive analysis of the political economy of agroecological transitions.

The impact of extreme weather events on global soybean markets and China’s imports

Households with special dietary needs experienced higher food access challenges and worries during COVID-19

Developing a food safety consumer experience scale: Qualitative insights from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Vietnam

Objectives: Unsafe food contributes to 600 million cases of foodborne illness and 420,000 deaths annually. Existing methods used to evaluate food safety risks overlook consumers’ perspectives coming from their everyday experiences that influence their food choices. Our objective was to develop a cross-culturally appropriate and user-friendly scale to assess consumers’ experiences related to food safety in low- and middle-income countries. This study identified the constructs that constitute the experiences of food safety that the scale should reflect. Methods: In-depth interviews were conducted with urban households in Bangladesh (n=51), Ethiopia (n=50), and Vietnam (n=41). Eligible households had children aged 2–5 years and members serving as primary food purchasers, preparers, and caregivers. Interviews explored attitudes, perceptions, and lived experiences related to food safety. Data were analyzed using a constant comparative method. Results: Respondents expressed awareness of biological and chemical contaminants in foods. Concerns about chemical additives and food adulteration were common, fueled by beliefs that these hazards cause chronic illnesses. Personal and familial experiences with foodborne illness reinforced caution when buying foods. Religious and cultural beliefs shaped how respondents explained and responded to food safety concerns, with some attributing illness symptoms to spiritual causes. Trust in food vendors was rooted in reputation, visible cleanliness, and willingness to rectify issues (e.g., exchange items). Respondents differentiated their extent of scrutinizing safety based on food type: staples such as rice and pulses were assessed more by vendor credibility, whereas perishables such as fish and meat underwent direct, detailed inspections. Low transparency in food sourcing and how vendors prepared foods were persistent concerns. Conclusions: Trust, perceived transparency, risk perceptions, and past incidents shaped consumers’ mental representations and behaviors related to food safety. Interviews underscored the centrality of context and sensory-based quality indicators, suggesting that scenario-based assessments are more appropriate than generic risk-reduction items.

Adoption and impact of hybrid rice in India: Evidence from a large-scale field survey

This paper aims at understanding the causes of low adoption of hybrid rice technology. The paper also assesses the impact of adoption of hybrids and modern varieties on crop yield, vis-à-vis the old or traditional varieties.Using unit-level data from a large-scale survey of farm households (19,877 paddy cultivators), the authors applied multi-nomial regression method to understand the factors for adoption of hybrid rice and instrumental variable method of regression to estimate its impact.The findings demonstrate that in India, hybrid rice is often grown on relatively poor soils, resulting in greater irrigation costs and for other inputs, such as fertilizers. Further, farmers’ poor access to information on the traits of hybrid rice and the associated agronomic practices, as well as poor access to financial resources, hampers efforts to scale up its adoption. More importantly, the findings reveal that the relative yield advantage of hybrids over open-pollinated modern varieties is not large enough to incentivize the rapid adoption of hybrid rice technology.Given the higher cost of hybrids than the inbred varieties, enhancing paddy cultivators’ access to financial resources can accelerate the adoption of hybrid rice in India.The study is based on unit level data from a large-scale, nationally representative survey of farm households, comprising a sample of 19,877 paddy cultivators, spread across states in India.

Short-term and long-term effects of cash for work: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Tunisia

JEL Classification: O12, O15

Biological control protects carbon sequestration capacity of plantation forests

In many natural and managed forest and tree systems, pest attacks and related dieback events have become a matter of increasing global concern. Although these attacks modify the carbon balance of tree systems, their contribution to climate forcing and the relative impact of nature-based mitigation measures is seldom considered. Here, we assess the extent to which biological control protects or reconstitutes carbon sequestration capacity and storage in monoculture tree plantations globally. Specifically, we draw upon field-level assessments, niche modeling and forest carbon flux maps to quantify potential risk of carbon sequestration loss due to three globally important insect herbivores of pine and eucalyptus. Specifically, herbivory by the tree-feeding insects Sirex noctilio, Leptocybe invasa and Ophelimus maskelli conservatively reduces carbon sink capacity by up to 0.96–4.86% at the country level. For a subset of 30, 11 and nine tree-growing countries, this potentially compromises a respective 4.02%, 0.80% and 0.79% of the carbon sink capacity of their tree hosts. Yet, in the invasive range, released biological control agents can help regain lost sink capacity to considerable extent. Equally, across both the S. noctilio native and invasive range, carbon sequestration capacity is protected by resident biota to the tune of (max.) 0.28–0.39 tons of CO2 equivalent per hectare per year. Our exploratory valuation of pest-induced sequestration losses and their biodiversity-driven mitigation informs climate policy, biosecurity, and management practice.

Malaria infection confounds inflammation-adjusted micronutrient biomarker concentrations in children and women in Malawi: a secondary analysis of the 2015/2016 Malawi micronutrient survey

Inflammation and infections such as malaria affect concentrations of many micronutrient biomarkers and hence estimates of nutritional status. We aimed to assess the relationship between malaria infection and micronutrient biomarker concentrations in pre-school children (PSC), school-age children (SAC) and women of reproductive age (WRA) in Malawi and examine the potential role of malarial immunity on the relationship between malaria and micronutrient biomarkers. Data from the 2015/2016 Malawi micronutrient survey were used. The associations between current or recent malaria infection, detected by rapid diagnostic test and concentration of serum ferritin, soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR), zinc, serum folate, red blood cell folate and vitamin B12 were estimated using multivariable linear regression. Factors related to malarial immunity including age, altitude and presence of hemoglobinopathies were examined as effect modifiers. Serum ferritin, sTfR and zinc were adjusted for inflammation using the BRINDA method. Malaria infection was associated with 68 % (95 % CI 51, 86), 28 % (18, 40) and 34 % (13, 45) greater inflammation-adjusted ferritin in PSC, SAC and WRA, respectively (P < 0·001 for each). In PSC, the positive association was stronger in younger children, high altitude and children who were not carriers of the sickle cell trait. In PSC and SAC, sTfR was elevated (+ 25 % (16, 29) and + 15 % (9, 22) respectively, P < 0·001). Serum folate and erythrocyte folate were elevated in WRA with malaria (+ 18 % (3, 35) and + 11 % (1, 23), P = 0·01 and P = 0·003 respectively). Malaria affects the interpretation of micronutrient biomarker concentrations, and examining factors related to malarial immunity may be informative.

Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability

During 2021–2022, spiking fertilizer prices raised fears that fertilizer application would drop around the world, leading to lower crop production, higher food prices, and greater food insecurity. Even writing mid-2024, a paucity of data impedes a full assessment of how the underlying global market shocks may have affected farmers and food production around the world. Using proxy indicators for fertilizer demand and farm profitability, we find that despite the steep increase in input costs, global demand for fertilizer fell only modestly during the 2022–2023 crop cycle, suggesting many (commercial) farmers were able and willing to absorb increased input costs in the context of generally good harvest prospects and, at the time, high crop prices. However, we also find the fertilizer price spikes have not been felt equally, with many farmers in Africa estimated to have been affected more adversely, even though with varied impacts also amongst those farmers.

Maize yield responsiveness and profitability of fertilizer: New survey evidence from six African countries

Enhancing maize productivity growth is pivotal for revolutionizing the agrifood system in Africa, with inorganic fertilizer serving as a fundamental input for catalyzing this progress. However, concerns are mounting about the low and decreasing yield response and profitability of inorganic fertilizer use, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study aims to refine yield response and profitability models by incorporating recent data from nationally representative and panel datasets spanning six countries. Most countries exhibited low nitrogen yield responsiveness (4–7 kg), while Ghana and Uganda showed higher responsiveness (15–20 kg) per additional 1 kg of nitrogen. Analysis of fertilizer-to-maize price ratios from 2010 to 2023 showed a downward trend, with spikes in 2022 in Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Overall, except for those years, the data suggest a trend of increasingly favorable price incentives for fertilizer use. Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda experienced declines in the fertilizer-to-maize price ratio. Increasing inorganic fertilizer use would be profitable in Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Uganda at current market prices, but not in Malawi or Tanzania. Subsidies in Malawi and Tanzania have boosted profitability, but these may not be necessary in Ghana, Nigeria, or Uganda, which already have favorable price incentives; Malawi could benefit by substantially reducing its 80 percent subsidy while maintaining decent price incentives and farm profits. The paper proposes policy options based on factors influencing yield responsiveness and potential improvements drawn from new modeling and synthesis of the literature.

Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

We assess fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis and other domestic shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then evaluate the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use detailed longitudinal household survey data collected in three rounds, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends have been halted by these crises. We also find slightly larger fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates than previous estimates, ranging between −0.40 and −1.12, which vary across crops. We find that farmers are more responsive to fertilizer prices than to output prices. Farmers’ response to increases in staple prices was statistically insignificant and hence not as strong as theoretically perceived. Households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surges. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks.

Psychometric properties of early childhood development assessment tools in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Objective Valid and reliable measurement of early childhood development (ECD) is critical for monitoring and evaluating ECD-related policies and programmes. Although ECD tools developed in high-income countries may be applicable to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), directly applying them in LMICs can be problematic without psychometric evidence for new cultures and contexts. Our objective was to systematically appraise available evidence on the psychometric properties of tools used to measure ECD in LMIC. Design A systematic review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Data sources MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, PsycInfo, SciELO and BVS were searched from inception to February 2025. Eligibility criteria We included studies that examined the reliability, validity, and measurement invariance of tools assessing ECD in children 0–6 years of age living in LMICs. Data extraction and synthesis Each study was independently screened by two researchers and data extracted by one randomly assigned researcher. Risk of bias was assessed using a checklist developed by the study team assessing bias due to training/administration, selective reporting and missing data. Results were synthesised narratively by country, location, age group at assessment and developmental domain. Results A total of 160 articles covering 117 tools met inclusion criteria. Most reported psychometric properties were internal consistency reliability (n=117, 64%), concurrent validity (n=81, 45%), convergent validity (n=74, 41%), test–retest reliability (n=73, 40%) and structural validity (n=72, 40%). Measurement invariance was least commonly reported (n=16, 9%). Most articles came from Brazil, China, India and South Africa. Most psychometric evidence was from urban (n=92, 51%) or urban–rural (n=41, 23%) contexts. Study samples focused on children aged 6–17.9 or 48–59.9 months. The most assessed developmental domains were language (n=111, 61%), motor (n=104, 57%) and cognitive (n=82, 45%). Bias due to missing data was most common. Conclusions Psychometric evidence is fragmented, limited and heterogeneous. More rigorous psychometric analyses, especially on measurement invariance, are needed to establish the quality and accuracy of ECD tools for use in LMICs.

Estimating the direct and indirect effects of improved seed adoption on yields: Evidence from DNA-fingerprinting, crop cuts, and self-reporting in Ethiopia

Farmers’ adoption of improved crop varieties could increase yields in low-income countries. However, the presence of measurement error in household surveys poses a challenge to estimating true returns. Using the 2018/19 Ethiopia Socio-economic Survey, we analyze the impacts of how three sources of measurement error: misperceptions of seed varieties, land area, and quantities harvested affect maize yields and input use. These data include DNA-fingerprinting of seed, GPS plot size information, and crop cuts that we compare to farmers’ self-reported estimates of these measures. Results indicate that the measurement error in self-reported seed variety adoption, especially from farmers who did not know they were using improved maize varieties, attenuates their estimated yield gains by 25 percentage points on average. The enhanced genetics of improved seed varieties accounts for a 41-percentage point yield increase over non-improved varieties, and increased input use accounts for a 30-percentage point gain for improved varieties on average. JEL classification: D13, O13, N57, Q12, Q16

Development and validation of the global diet quality score (GDQS) for children 24 to 59 months of age

Objectives To develop the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) for children aged 24-59 months and evaluate its performance in predicting outcomes related to nutrient adequacy and diet-related noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk. Background The GDQS is a food-based metric developed and validated for capturing diets’ contributions to nutrient adequacy and NCD risk among adult men and nonpregnant and nonlactating women aged ≥15 years globally. Despite the importance of ensuring healthy diets in preschool children and the need for systematic monitoring, no food-based metrics exist that holistically measure diet quality among children aged 24-59 months in diverse populations. Methods We developed candidate versions of the GDQS for children aged 24-59 months by adapting the gram cutoff values used for adults to account for children’s lower energy requirements. Using dietary data sets from Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, China, Ethiopia, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States, we evaluated candidate versions’ performance in predicting energy-adjusted nutrient intakes and adequacy, nutritional biomarkers, and overweight using Spearman’s correlation and multivariable-adjusted regression models, and we statistically compared performance of the strongest candidate with that of the Minimum Dietary Diversity–Women (MDD-W) indicator and Global Dietary Recommendations (GDR) score. Results The GDQS exhibited significant (P <.05) positive correlations with energy-adjusted intakes of protein, fiber, and most micronutrients in most data sets; significant negative correlations with added sugar and saturated fat in 2 data sets; and inconsistent correlations with monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fat. In multivariable-adjusted models, the GDQS, MDD-W, and GDR were positively associated with serum folate in Ethiopia (and the GDQS was in the United Kingdom), and the GDR was positively associated with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in China (P <.05). The GDQS was more strongly associated with the mean probability of adequacy of 8 nutrients than the GDR in 2 data sets, whereas the MDD-W outperformed the GDQS in 3 data sets (P <.05). Conclusion The GDQS is a useful metric for measuring diet quality among children aged 24-59 months in diverse populations.

Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar

The number of farmers residing in fragile and conflict-affected countries is rising globally, yet the impacts of conflict on the economics of inorganic fertilizer in these settings remain poorly understood. We study how conflicts in Myanmar, combined with global fertilizer market disruptions, have affected inorganic fertilizer prices, use, response, and efficiency. We utilize unique nationally representative household panel survey data and a comprehensive approach that employs various analytical methods to examine the nexus between conflicts and fertilizer-related issues. Our findings reveal that greater intensity of violent events is associated with higher prices of major types of inorganic fertilizer, particularly in areas farther from major import locations. These price changes and increases in violent events have suppressed both the likelihood and quantity of inorganic fertilizer usage, leading to decreased rice yield responses at given nitrogen application levels. Panel stochastic frontier analyses, combined with a method addressing the endogeneity of inorganic fertilizer use, suggest a significant decline in fertilizer use efficiency each year since the onset of conflict. The increase in violent events is also associated with the reduced use of extension services, seeds from markets, irrigation, and optimal fertilizer blends, which may partly explain the diminished returns and efficiency of inorganic fertilizer use. Conflict therefore seems to be associated with a change in the economics of inorganic fertilizer use through various impact channels, affecting agricultural performance in these fragile and conflict-affected settings.

Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda

Fertilizer subsidies are a prominent feature of many agricultural development strategies in sub-Saharan Africa, but few countries have the necessary data to make rapid decisions about their management in the face of exogenous shocks. This was the case in Rwanda following the rapid increase in international fertilizer prices in 2021–22. Working within a constrained fiscal space that followed the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Rwanda aimed to revise its fertilizer subsidy system to accommodate higher fertilizer import prices without compromising progress against its agricultural growth targets. This paper explores both the economic analysis and policy process that shaped decision-making around Rwanda’s fertilizer subsidy system during the period 2020–23. The paper centers on the design and application of a microsimulation model that estimated—almost in real time—the impact of increased fertilizer prices on crop production during this period. It then explores the policy outcomes that followed, emphasizing the scope for subsidy reductions even in the midst of crisis, the critical importance of strengthening agricultural data systems, and lessons for countries facing similar challenges.

Validation of the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) among children 10 to 14 years of age

Objective We aimed to evaluate the performance of the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) in predicting nutrient intake and health outcomes among children aged 10–14 years old in Mexico, the United States, the United Kingdom, and China. For comparison, we evaluated other dietary metrics (Minimum Dietary Diversity for Women [MDD-W], the Global Dietary Recommendations score [GDR], and the Healthy Eating Index–2020 [HEI-2020]). Background Given the magnitude of the health burden associated with all forms of malnutrition, monitoring dietary quality is fundamental to improving global health. Early adolescence is a key stage of development, and thus validated tools to measure diet quality that are pertinent for the global context are needed. Methods The GDQS and comparison metrics were estimated from 24-hour dietary recalls (Mexico: n = 2533; United States: n = 685; China: n = 1087, and United Kingdom: n = 1675). Regression models were conducted to evaluate the association between the change in 1 SD of each metric score and usual intake of nutrients, mean probability of nutrient adequacy, and biomarker and anthropometric outcomes adjusted by age, sex, socioeconomic status, educational level, urban/rural area, and usual energy intake (for dietary outcomes). Results The GDQS showed a higher diet quality in China (16.7 points) and Mexico (15.9 points), followed by the United States (13.6 points) and the United Kingdom (12.2 points). The GDQS was found to be associated with the intake of micronutrients as well as noncommunicable disease (NCD)–related nutrients (fiber, added sugar, and saturated fat) (P < .05). The performance of the GDQS was comparable to all other metrics; yet, in the case of NCD-related nutrients the MDD-W was slightly inferior. Few associations were found across countries and metrics with biomarker and anthropometric outcomes. Conclusion The GDQS was associated with the intake of micronutrients and NCD-related nutrients; these results suggest that the GDQS is an appropriate tool to monitor dietary quality among 10–14-year-olds across several contexts globally.

Storage management practices and mycotoxin contamination of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) in northwest Ethiopia

Mycotoxins are toxic metabolites produced by certain fungal species that affect animal and human health. Data on the relationships between specific traditional storage management practices of sorghum and mycotoxin contamination are rarely available in Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to investigate current sorghum storage management practices in major sorghum producer locations in Northwest Ethiopia and their relationships with mycotoxin contamination. Sorghum storage management practices of 120 farmers were surveyed, the occurrence of multiple mycotoxins in samples from their stored sorghum was determined, and potential relationships between the traditional storage management practices and mycotoxin contamination were analyzed. Samples were analyzed using UPLC-MS/MS for 33 different mycotoxins. About 88% of the samples were contaminated with at least one mycotoxin. The detected mycotoxins belong to one of the four mycotoxin categories, produced by Aspergillus spp, Fusarium spp, Penicillium spp, and Alternaria spp. From the total, 3%, 7%, and 3% of the samples were contaminated with aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, and zearalenone, respectively, above the EU regulatory limits. The measured concentrations that bypassed EU regulatory limits were 9.14, 18.34 and 29.13 (μg/kg) for total aflatoxins, 5.31, 12.50, 14.94, 15.77, 32.94, 56.81, 58.07 and 112.59 (μg/kg) for Ochratoxin A, and 123.48, 238.43 and 431.78 (μg/kg) for Zearalenone, respectively. Logistic regression showed relationships between the traditional storage management practices with mycotoxin contamination. The age and the experience of the Main Person Responsible for Storage management (MPRS), the placement of the storage structure, and the insecticide application showed negative relationships with multi-mycotoxin contamination. On the other hand, the educational status of the MPRS and the type of storage structure showed positive relationships with mycotoxin contamination. Therefore, it is recommended that farmers receive training in proper sorghum storage management to further reduce the mycotoxin contamination in the grain.

Do youth work in agriculture? Short-term dynamics of on-farm rural youth employment in Tanzania and Malawi

Air pollutions affect restaurant and foodservice industry in China

This study examines the impact of air pollution on food away from home (FAFH) consumption in 52 cities across 20 provinces of China, focusing on expenditures for online food delivery (online FAFH) and dine-in restaurants (offline FAFH). Using unique daily aggregated city-level consumption data linked with hourly air quality data, we employ both semiparametric and parametric models to uncover a positive relationship between PM2.5 levels and online FAFH, contrasted by a significantly negative relationship with offline FAFH. Our analysis reveals that shifts in consumer demand for food services on polluted days, coupled with changes in urban mobility patterns, contribute to these outcomes. We also detect temporal variations based on meal type, enhancing our understanding of how air pollution influences food consumption behavior. The findings indicate that increased PM2.5 levels lead to a net loss in restaurant revenue, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and an increase in plastic waste. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the multifaceted impacts of air pollution on FAFH and corresponding economy and environmental implications.

From bargaining power to empowerment: Measuring the unmeasurable

Measuring power is central to empirical work on intrahousehold and gender relations. This paper reviews how progress in the measurement of power within households has facilitated our understanding of household decision-making and creates new opportunities for programs and policy. Early efforts to test household models focused on measuring spousal bargaining power, usually in models featuring two decision-makers within the household. Proxy measures for bargaining power included age, education, assets, and “outside options” that could affect spouses’ threat points within marriage. Evidence rejecting the collective model of the household has influenced the design of policies and programs, notably conditional cash transfer programs. Efforts have since shifted to measuring empowerment, drawing on theories of agency and power. Since 2010, several measures of women’s empowerment have been developed, including the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) and its variants. A distinct feature of the WEAI, like other counting-based measures, is its decomposability into its component indicators, which makes identifying sources of disempowerment possible. The WEAI indicators also embody jointness of decision-making or ownership, which better reflects actual decision-making within households compared to 2-person bargaining models. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research. This paper was presented at a Plenary Session of the 32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE) 2024, held from 2–7 August, 2024 in New Delhi, India.

Helping rural women secure their land and resource rights: Reach, benefit, empower, or transform?

Inclusive and gender-transformative seed systems: Concepts and applications

CONTEXT Seed is vital to the nutrition and livelihoods of millions of women and men small-scale farmers in low- and middle-income countries. Seed systems interventions can significantly enhance food security and nutrition by accelerating the adoption of improved varieties and the use of quality seed, which in turn increase the rate of genetic gain, productivity, and household welfare. These interventions can be particularly effective when advancing gender equality by supporting women’s empowerment and addressing discriminatory gender norms. However, there is relatively little evidence on the ways in which seed systems can be an entry point for advancing gender equality by transforming discriminatory gender norms. OBJECTIVES We develop and illustrate a gender transformative approach applied to seed sector development. Our first objective is to provide a framework to better understand how seed systems interventions can contribute to gender equality by (1) integrating gender-accommodative and gender-transformative approaches; and (2) assessing their gendered impacts. Our second objective is to apply this framework to a particular innovation – gender messaging via information and communications technologies (ICTs) – and explore how seed system interventions can be made more gender-transformative. METHODS We first reviewed the existing literature to develop a framework that defines gender-transformative and accommodative seed system interventions and their impacts. We then synthesized lessons learned from the application of this framework to case studies from Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda that used ICTs that contained gendered components. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION We discuss how a gender-accommodative approach aims for gender considerations to improve seed systems, while a gender-transformative approach flips the goal around by aiming at progress toward gender equality through seed systems. We find growing evidence on the potential of gender-transformative seed systems interventions to influence positively the empowerment of women and also men, and to create more conducive gender norms, as shown by three case studies on ICT enablers. These case studies also show that accommodative and transformative approaches are often complementary. SIGNIFICANCE We introduce research questions that research and development practitioners can ask to develop accommodative or transformative approaches in seed system interventions, and show the potential of both approaches to progress toward gender equality. The case studies indicate the feasibility of gender-transformative, ICT-enabled seed system interventions, with clear indications of the potential for low-cost adaptation at scale. However, the transformative potential of these interventions requires careful consideration of messaging content, format, and context, as well as strategic public investment and strong political will.

Food transfers, cash transfers, behavior change communication and child nutrition: Evidence from Bangladesh

This paper reports the results of two 2-year randomized control trials in two poor rural areas of Bangladesh. Treatment arms included monthly cash transfers, monthly food rations of equivalent value to the cash transfers, and mixed monthly cash and food transfers, and treatment arms—one with food and one with cash—that combined transfers with nutrition-behavior communication change (BCC). This design enables a comparison of transfer modalities within the same experiment. Intent-to-treat estimators show that cash transfers and nutrition BCC had a large impact on nutritional status, a 0.25 standard deviation increase in height-for-age z-scores and a 7.8 percentage point decrease in stunting prevalence. No other treatment arm affected anthropometric outcomes. Mechanisms underlying these impacts are explored. Improved diets—particularly increased intake of animal source foods in the cash plus BCC arm—are consistent with the improvements observed in this paper.

How good are livestock statistics in Africa? Can nudging and direct counting improve the quality of livestock asset data?

Livestock statistics in most low- and middle-income countries rely on self-reported, survey-based measures. However, respondents may have various challenges to accurately report livestock ownership. This study introduces a novel set of survey and measurement experiments to improve livestock statistics in Africa. We introduce two innovations to conventional livestock data collection methods. First, we address some of the sources of potential underreporting in livestock assets by introducing an explicit nudge to a random subset of survey respondents. Second, we arrange for direct counting of livestock assets by enumerators and local livestock experts. We demonstrate that self-reported data on livestock ownership suffer from significant and systematic underreporting. While our nudge affects only the reporting behaviour of households with larger stocks of livestock, direct counting increases total livestock ownership by 39 percent and the reported number of cattle by 43 percent. These impacts are evident at both the extensive and intensive margins of livestock asset ownership, as well as considering the number and value of livestock assets owned. Such mismeasurement in self-reported livestock data can lead to underestimation of the contribution of the livestock sector to national economies. Furthermore, direct counting generates important spillover effects to livestock species not explicitly counted in the survey. We finally show that underreporting in self-reported livestock data is systematic and hence consequential for statistical inferences. Our findings underscore that survey designs that can address specific sources of bias in self-reported livestock data can meaningfully improve livestock asset measurement in Africa.

Technology intensification and farmers’ welfare: A case study from Karnataka, a semi-arid state of India

JEL Codes: Q16, Q54, Q55, C13

Does aid induce foreign direct investment: Updated evidence from a quasi-experiment

While the catalytic effect of aid on foreign direct investment (FDI) has long been an implicit consensus among many policymakers and practitioners, assessments of this causal relationship remain limited and are not always reliable. To mitigate this evidence gap, this study applies an instrumental variable approach that leverages the graduation of the International Development Association (IDA) income threshold as a quasi-experiment to identify the causal linkage between foreign aid and FDI. The analysis reveals that a 1 percent drop in the ratio of aid to gross national income leads to a decline in FDI relative to gross domestic product by 0.9 percent in 42 developing countries from 1987 to 2019. In face of the aid shock induced by IDA graduation, governments in recipient countries restrict their financial policy openness, through which aid could significantly impact subsequent foreign private investment. Results emphasize the necessity of concerted policy interventions to mitigate this negative aid shock.

Development and validation of the global diet quality score (GDQS) for children 5 to 9 years of age

Objective The purpose of the study was to develop and validate a Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) for children aged 5–9 years adapted from the existing GDQS developed for adults. Background Diet quality is important for nutrient adequacy and risk of nutrition-related chronic disease. A diet quality metric for global use with children is needed. Methods The 25 food groups of the GDQS were used to assign points for categories of consumption according to gram-weight cutoffs adapted for children based on energy requirements. As a preliminary step, alternative versions of gram-weight cutoffs were tested by comparing correlation analyses using 4 existing dietary datasets from low-, middle-, and high-income countries. A final GDQS metric version, selected based on strength of correlations and operational feasibility, was further examined in regression analyses with individual nutrient intake an overall nutrient intake adequacy score and biomarker and anthropometry outcomes in 7 dietary datasets from different countries. Regressions were also undertaken with other diet quality metrics to compare their relative performance with that of the GDQS. Results The GDQS had strong associations with most nutrient intakes, including an overall mean nutrient adequacy score and some nutrients associated with noncommunicable disease risk, such as fiber and added sugar. Biomarker data were limited in the available datasets and few associations with GDQS were found. The GDQS performed better or as well as other dietary quality metrics in predicting nutrient intakes. Conclusion The GDQS was associated with nutrient intakes and fills a gap in a global diet quality metric for children. The GDQS will be a useful tool to measure diet quality and monitoring changes in diet quality over time.