IFPRI Publications: Journal Articles

Estimating multidimensional development resilience

Existing measures of resilience are typically based on a single well-being indicator. This is problematic in contexts where households face deprivations across multiple dimensions. We develop a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approaches with multidimensional poverty measurement methods. Applying these to household panel data from Ethiopia, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions. Univariate resilience measures constructed using consumption expenditure, dietary diversity and livestock asset holdings show distinct temporal and spatial distributional patterns. But while univariate measures are weakly correlated with one another and with different well-being metrics, multivariate measures exhibit much stronger rank correlations. When we contrast univariate measures of resilience to multidimensional measures of resilience, we find that the latter vary less over the study period; multidimensional resilience measures seem to capture more “persistent or structural” vulnerability and associated capacity of households. We also demonstrate the differences in these univariate and multivariate measures, including the potential of the composite multidimensional resilience measures for supporting targeting processes.

Higher altitude stunts children’s physical growth: A systematic review and meta-analysis

How can anticipatory action programming support women? Application of the reach-benefit-empower-transform framework in Nepal and Nigeria

Imperfect competition and asymmetric welfare effects of global price and productivity shocks: a CGE model analysis for Senegal

This article investigates the asymmetric effects of global price and productivity shocks on welfare in the context of imperfect competition. The primary objective is to understand how market concentration affects the transmission of economic shocks and their impacts on various households. A CGE model, calibrated on a 2014 social accounting matrix for Senegal, is used. The model features a trading sector operating under a Cournot oligopoly with increasing returns to scale. Two scenarios are simulated: a 15% increase in global import prices and a 10% increase in agricultural productivity, each considering different levels of market concentration. The findings reveal that higher global import prices reduce household well-being, a situation exacerbated by low market competition. In contrast, agricultural productivity gains enhance well-being, with these benefits amplified by greater competition. However, the wealthiest households in Dakar benefit from low competition due to their positions in oligopolistic companies. To maximize household well-being, economic policies should focus on strengthening market competition, particularly in the trading sector. Actions such as reducing entry barriers for new businesses and regulating anti-competitive practices can help mitigate the adverse effects of global price increases and amplify the benefits of agricultural productivity gains.

Understanding spatial heterogeneity of hidden hunger in Senegal

Using household consumption data collected in 2017/18, this paper analyzes patterns of urban and rural food consumption in Senegal. We adopt two methodological approaches: an in-depth (spatial) profiling of current diets and corresponding nutrient intakes and an application of the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS). Our findings indicate that Senegal is a typical case of micronutrient deficiency, especially regarding calcium, iron, and vitamin B12. Due to their higher income status and better food access, urban dwellers on average have a more diversified diet with higher nutrient intakes compared to their rural counterparts, especially regarding calcium, vitamin B12, and vitamin A. While the country’s food system in general is unable to assure a nutritious diet for all, the most remote rural departments in Senegal, such as Saraya and Podor, display the highest nutrient deficiencies and therefore should be targeted with priority. Apart from geographical targeting and given their higher responsiveness to price and income changes, policies based on food pricing and income transfers should be implemented to ensure a minimal nutrient intake among the most food-insecure households. These policies could be further complemented with behavioral change campaigns to promote an alternative set of nutrient-rich and cost-effective food items.

Step by step to higher yields? Adoption and impacts of a sequenced training approach for climate-smart coffee production in Uganda

Climate change further exacerbates sustainability challenges in coffee cultivation. Addressing these requires effective delivery mechanisms for sustainable farming practices, particularly in smallholder contexts. We assess a novel public-private extension approach in Uganda, called Stepwise, comprising a sequence of climate-smart and good agricultural practices in four incremental steps. Using a mixed-method approach, an index that captures adoption intensity rather than binary uptake, and survey data from 915 Robusta and Arabica coffee farmers, we find adoption levels around 46% and relatively uniform amongst treated, spillover and comparison farmers. Regional variations suggest differing benefits across coffee varieties. Qualitative findings identify barriers to adoption, including financial and labour constraints, suboptimal training delivery, and input and output market imperfections. Despite relatively low uptake, adoption of more than half of the Stepwise practices is associated with substantial gains: inverse probability weighted regression adjustment reveals a 23% increase in yield and a 32% increase in revenue. Our findings add to the adoption literature, which often highlights limited uptake, and have important policy implications. Strengthening producer organizations, delivering targeted training but also innovative solutions for access to inputs and fair pricing, hold considerable potential to increase the adoption of climate-smart practices, particularly among resource-constrained farmers.

Whole maize flour could enhance food and nutrition security in Malawi

Maize is the staple cereal in Malawi, with a daily per capita consumption of 383 g (dry matter basis), primarily consumed in the form of nsima, a thick porridge. We combined a milling experiment with focus group discussions (FGDs) to provide insights into mass and nutrient losses during maize grain dehulling and maize flour consumption patterns in rural Malawi. Milling batches (30 kg) of four maize grain varieties were dehulled at three abrasive disk dehullers under controlled conditions. The impact of maize variety and dehuller design on mass and nutrient losses during dehulling was statistically significant (p < 0.05), with a mean mass loss of 28.1 ± 5.7%, and nutrient losses of 9.8 ± 1.9% for protein, 61.7 ± 2.0% for zinc, and 47.7 ± 3.6% for iron. Six FGDs conducted in rural areas of Lilongwe District revealed a preference for refined flour due to convenience and cultural norms, despite the nutritional benefits of whole grain flour, which was recognized for its ability to provide satiety, particularly during periods of maize scarcity. Participants also highlighted switching between flour types based on seasonal maize availability, social stigma associated with whole grain flour, and awareness of nutrient losses during dehulling. Given Malawi’s precarious food insecurity situation, transitioning from dehulled maize flour nsima to whole maize flour or less refined nsima, is imperative. Our study findings can have food and nutritional savings for other southern Africa countries where the dehulling is a common practice.

How social norms influence processes of change related to an economic intervention in Bangladesh

Intimate partner violence (IPV) occurs due to multiple factors at the individual, relational, community and societal levels. Previous research has shown that a cash, food and behaviour change communication programme called the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI) implemented from 2012 to 2014 in Bangladesh had sustained effects on IPV. We collected qualitative data among former TMRI participants in 2023 that allows exploring how social norms may have played a role in shaping the changes related to IPV along four pathways through which TMRI influenced IPV: 1) economic security, 2) family relationships, 3) women’s empowerment, and 4) social support and community relationships. We conducted nine focus group discussions (FGDs) with 49 women TMRI participants, nine FGDs with 52 husbands of women TMRI participants, 54 in-depth interviews (IDIs) with women TMRI participants, and 10 IDIs with women who did not participate in TMRI. We find: along 1) women’s economic contributions may facilitate weakening of IPV norms, however norms on gender roles and seclusion constrain change; along 2) norms related to family reputation could influence IPV condemnation, however norms on female submission and obedience to in-laws constrain change; along 3) norms on female submission constrain female empowerment but could be weakened if women display knowledge aligning with gender roles; and, along 4) linkages to reduced IPV were less clear, with female seclusion norms constraining change, highlighting the importance of group activities. Our findings draw attention to the potential for economic interventions layered with context-specific norms interventions to achieve longer-term changes in IPV and gender inequalities.

Does small-scale irrigation affect women’s time allocation? Insights from Ethiopia

Small-scale irrigation (SSI) interventions have received increasing attention as a potential pathway for women’s empowerment in sub-Saharan Africa. One key aspect of women’s empowerment that SSI can influence is women’s time burden. Hypothesized benefits of SSI for women are less energy exertion and reduced labor in agriculture. Yet, these hypotheses have not been tested empirically. We explore how household adoption of different SSI technologies affects the time allocation of women in the household, using two rounds of intrahousehold panel survey data from Ethiopia. Two different approaches are used to address potential endogeneity issues related to time-constant and time-varying factors that may be correlated with both SSI and time use: an instrumental variables-correlated random effects approach and a fractional multinomial logit-correlated random effects with control function approach. The results suggest that household use of SSI in general is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time. The results further suggest that household use of motor pumps is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time and reductions in the time they spend on farming and personal care. Given that women often provide the labor for irrigation using manual, labor-intensive methods, such as watering cans, buckets, or hand- or foot-powered treadle pumps, the results suggest that SSI using motorized methods has the potential to free up women’s time in farming and enable more leisure time. These findings have broad implications for women’s empowerment and labor allocation. Future research using new and more comprehensive data could explore the mechanisms for the findings in this study and determine if SSI enables women to improve their ability to allocate their time to activities they prefer.

Rice milling and parboiling trade-offs for economic and nutritional gains with special attention to sub-Saharan Africa: A comprehensive review

Rice is an important source of calories and nutrients for people in low- and middle-income countries. In the quest to respond to consumer preferences and attract premium prices, paddy processors increase the degree of milling (polishing), largely affecting nutritional composition and economic value of milled rice. Milling and parboiling are crucial unit processing operations affecting the quality profile of rice. The literature poorly reports on milling and parboiling operations that provide economic and nutritional gains or losses. Thus, there are no standard milling and parboiling regimes recommended to influence technological and policy changes in favor of public health and nutrition. In this comprehensive review, rice milling and parboiling operations associated with nutritional, economic, food safety and environmental benefits have been presented and discussed. Optimal milling and parboiling strategies that provide nutritional, economic, food safety and environmental gains are proposed as alternatives to conventional processing technologies and practices. Improved parboiling and moderate degree of milling in two-stage systems appear to provide better economic and nutritional benefits.

Integrating carbon sequestration and yield optimization in Indian cropping systems

Agriculture contributes significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but also holds strong potential for mitigation – particularly through soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. This study evaluates the impact of integrated management practices—such as biochar application, optimized irrigation, and fertilizer management on yield improvement and SOC sequestration in semi-arid regions of Maharashtra, India. Using APSIM simulations across five districts and diverse cropping systems, it compares these practices with conventional farming. Results indicate that integrated practices consistently improve yields, SOC levels, and economic viability. For instance, maize yields under integrated practices increased by over 30 %, with substantial SOC gains. A cost-benefit analysis reveals high benefit-cost ratios, making these practices economically viable for smallholder farmers. This study highlights the transformative potential of integrated practices in addressing food security and environmental sustainability, especially in semi-arid regions. Policy recommendations include subsidizing biochar, promoting precision irrigation technologies, and integrating SOC sequestration strategies into national climate action plans. These findings provide actionable insights for scaling sustainable agricultural practices in resource-constrained settings. Previous article in

The characteristics of community seed schemes for grains and legumes: Insights from northern Nigeria

CONTEXT Despite the significant roles that intermediary seed systems play in the supply of quality seed in developing countries, including Africa South of the Sahara, the knowledge gap remains generally substantial regarding the general characteristics and seed quality assurance performance of intermediary seed systems like community seed schemes (CSS), which still predominantly operate outside the formal seed systems. OBJECTIVE We aim to narrow the knowledge gap on seed production practices implemented by CSS and their economic characteristics, the extent of seed quality assurance achieved, and potential challenges CSS is facing. METHODS Using primary survey data of seed producers of key grains (maize, rice, and sorghum) and legumes (cowpea and soybean) from 380 CSS in Kano state in northern Nigeria, we qualitatively assess seed production characteristics, financial structures of their seed production, aspects of quality assurance measures they engage, and potential roles of external support like training on their implementation of these quality assurance measures. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We discovered that many of the interviewed CSS have emerged endogenously, taking up seed production to address the challenges in access to quality seed in their locality. Their seed production has often grown into viable businesses that have provided potentially significant additions to their incomes. Oftentimes, these CSS implemented some seed quality assurance measures, including making closer visual checks of seed, checking germination rates, and bagging/packing seed, among others. However, fuller seed quality assurance may be significantly skill-intensive, and most CSS still do not implement many of the recommended measures under some of the intermediary quality assurance standards like quality declared seed. Our qualitative assessment suggests that future support for CSS can focus on technical support to raise the ability to engage in broader categories of quality assurance activities in financially viable ways and to improve the awareness and knowledge of different varieties and access to early generation seed. SIGNIFICANCE The quality assurance provided by existing community seed schemes in Nigeria may be relatively limited, particularly in terms of proper maintenance of seed production field and the quality of original varieties that they intend to multiply. Providing external support through training and technical assistance may be an effective way to transform community seed schemes into critical providers of seed quality assurance in intermediary seed systems and fill gaps in the formal seed system.

Buyer-side gender discrimination in bargaining: Evidence from seed sales in Uganda

Haggling over prices is a common feature of economic transactions in many societies. This study examines whether the gender of the seller influences buyers’ negotiation strategies and outcomes in bilateral price bargaining. Using a bargaining experiment in eastern Uganda, we analyze interactions between smallholder maize farmers and either a male or female seed seller. Our findings reveal that buyers negotiating with female sellers are less likely to accept the initial offer price and respond with lower counter-bids compared to those bargaining with male sellers. Negotiations also last, on average, one round longer when the seller is a woman, and final transaction prices are nearly 9 percent lower. These results are particularly relevant for rural economies, where restrictive gender norms limit women’s financial autonomy. Given that small agribusinesses often provide one of the few viable income-generating opportunities for women, gender biases in market interactions can have substantial implications for economic empowerment and household welfare.

A measure of industrial clustering: Considering relatedness and scale

JEL codes: L10; L50; L60

From data to decision: How the National Information Platform for Nutrition (NiPN) bridges the research-policy gap in Ethiopia’s nutrition sector

Bridging the gap between research and policy continues to be a major challenge in Ethiopia, particularly in the nutrition sector, where evidence is often fragmented, inconsistently collected, and underutilized. Traditional research-to-policy approaches are frequently misaligned with policymaking needs due to differences in timelines, priorities, and communication practices. While these challenges are not unique to Ethiopia—and indeed, numerous global efforts have attempted to address them with varying degrees of success—examples from other settings offer useful insights for strengthening the interface between evidence and action. In the Ethiopian context, the National Information Platform for Nutrition (NiPN) represents an important shift toward a more responsive, demand-driven model that seeks to improve the relevance and uptake of evidence. Unlike conventional approaches that begin with research questions and proceed directly to data collection, Ethiopia’s NiPN starts with policy question formulation, aligning evidence generation with real-time decision-making priorities. This approach emphasizes embedding research in institutional processes and tailoring outputs to policy needs. The paper explores how NiPN addresses structural barriers to nutrition governance—such as limited institutional capacity, fragmented coordination, and weak knowledge translation. It engages multiple sectors in mapping evidence, analyzing data, and supporting dialogue to inform actionable recommendations. Using examples like the Seqota Declaration and the School Feeding Programme, the paper demonstrates how NiPN has improved policy relevance, intervention targeting, and national ownership. The Ethiopian case offers transferable insights for other countries seeking to institutionalize evidence-informed policymaking in complex, multisectoral domains.

Household food production and dietary diversity in a remote, former socialist society: Panel data evidence from Tajikistan

Background Despite a growing interest in household-level agriculture–nutrition linkage, evidence remains thin in countries like Tajikistan, one of the poorest former socialist countries where food crop production decisions by individual farm households had been significantly regulated by the government until recently. Objectives We narrow this knowledge gap by examining the linkages between households’ food production practice as well as their productivity performances and dietary diversity scores (DDS) of both the household and individual women in Tajikistan. Methods We use a panel sample of households and individual women of reproductive ages in the Khatlon province of Tajikistan, the poorest province and a major agricultural region of the country. Difference-in-difference propensity score regressions and panel fixed-effects instrumental variable regressions are applied. Results Higher overall diversity in food groups (FGs) produced by households, as well as greater overall production per land and per household member at the household level, leads to higher DDS both for the household and for individual women, particularly in areas with poor food market access. FG-specific analyses suggest that for vegetables, fruits, legumes/nuts/seeds, dairy products, and eggs, significant one-on-one linkage exists between own production and consumption for these FGs. Conclusions Results underscore the importance of supporting household-level agricultural diversification and agricultural productivity growth in Tajikistan to improve dietary diversity, especially in remote areas.

Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks

Purpose We study five exogenous shocks: climate, violence, price hikes, spoilage and the COVID-19 lockdown. We analyze the association between these shocks and trader characteristics, reflecting trader vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach Using primary survey data on 1,100 Nigerian maize traders for 2021 (controlling for shocks in 2017), we use probit models to estimate the probabilities of experiencing climate, violence, disease and cost shocks associated with trader characteristics (gender, size and region) and to estimate the probability of vulnerability (experiencing severe impacts). Findings Traders are prone to experiencing more than one shock, which increases the intensity of the shocks. Price shocks are often accompanied by violence, climate and COVID-19 shocks. The poorer northern region is disproportionately affected by shocks. Northern traders experience more price shocks while Southern traders are more affected by violence shocks given their dependence on long supply chains from the north for their maize. Female traders are more likely to experience violent events than men who tend to be more exposed to climate shocks. Research limitations/implications The data only permit analysis of the general degree of impact of a shock rather than quantifying lost income. Originality/value This paper is the first to analyze the incidence of multiple shocks on grain traders and the unequal distribution of negative impacts. It is the first such in Africa based on a large sample of grain traders from a primary survey.

Unlock genotype-environment-management interaction via field phenotypic insights for multi-scale prediction of winter rapeseed flowering in the Yangtze River Basin

Crop yields are significantly impacted by adverse climatic events during flowering. Accurately predicting flowering periods is crucial for optimizing strategies to enhance crop yields. Previous studies used crop models to predict flowering periods, challenging due to limited sowing date data and generalizability across different cultivars and environment. In this study, plot experiments and high-throughput field phenotypes were coupled to determine the impact of genotype–environment–management interaction (G × E × M) on the flowering period of winter rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin. The findings indicated that the pre-winter leaf area index adeptly indicated the impact of sowing dates on flowering period. The leaf color during winter distinguished the genotype effects, and the cumulative temperature between 50 and 60 days after the winter solstice (WS) was identified as the pivotal climate factor. The predictive indicators for the flowering period were referenced to the time point of the WS, alleviating the constraints of uncertain sowing dates. A combination of these indicators could be used to predict the flowering period in 24 winter rapeseed cultivars with an error of < 4 days at experimental plots across the Yangtze River Basin. Notably, the accuracy of flowering prediction model was validated on an actual farmland in Jingzhou City, aligning well with the observed flowering dynamics from satellite data. To extend the utility of the model to regional scales, distribution maps of the flowering period were generated using a linear regression model that correlated post-winter cumulative temperature with the flowering period, considering a 2.0 °C warming level by 2050 across the entire Yangtze River Basin. Results show higher temperatures or lower cumulative solar radiation during the flowering period will appear in many regions in the Yangtze River Basin. The findings of this study hold promise for aiding region-specific crop cultivation and breeding in the future.

Impact of conflict shocks on land rental market dynamics: Panel evidence from Nigeria

Access to land is crucial for transforming agri-food systems, promoting market integration, and reducing poverty in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where rural land markets are increasingly expanding. However, the escalation of violent conflicts presents serious obstacles to the effective functioning of these land rental markets and their contribution to development objectives. The study employs a household-level panel fixed effects regression model to analyze the impact of violent conflicts and institutional factors on land rental market dynamics, using georeferenced LSMS-ISA and ACLED data. Findings show that conflicts significantly reduce land rental sizes, especially for rural smallholder farmers. Additionally, the study found that institutional factors change how conflict affects land rental markets. The heterogeneous effects revealed that institutional factors reverse the impact of conflict on land rental sizes and values. Specifically, when smallholder women participate in agricultural decision-making in rural areas or when large-scale farming households have access to credit, the typically adverse effect of conflict on land markets transforms into a positive one. Thus, women’s participation in agricultural decision-making and access to formal credit play a crucial role in shaping households’ ability to navigate land rental markets in conflict-affected areas. Policymakers can leverage this evidence to develop strategies that improve land access and stability in conflict-prone regions. By understanding household and market dynamics, policymakers can design more effective strategies to promote conflict-sensitive and sustainable agricultural systems and economic stability in Nigeria and other conflict-prone regions.

Food acquisition, preparation, and consumption practices in South Asia: A scoping review of assessment tools

Assessing behaviors related to food choice at individual- and household-levels is essential for improving household diets, but assessment tools are limited. We conducted a scoping review to identify gaps in existing assessment tools for food acquisition, preparation, and household consumption practices in South Asia, where diets are rapidly changing. We undertook systematic keyword searches of three databases (PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science Core Collection) to identify studies assessing food acquisition, food preparation, and household consumption practices in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, published in English between 2000 and April 2025. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts, and extracted data on study characteristics and the assessment tools used to examine the food choice behaviors. Of 13,160 unique articles identified, 50 were included for synthesis. Food acquisition behaviors (e.g., what and how often food is purchased, changes in food purchases) were assessed by 26 studies, food preparation (e.g., cooking habits, intra-household distribution of responsibilities, preparation methods) by nine studies, and household consumption practices (e.g., timing, snacking, meal skipping, eating away from the home) by 30 studies. Most studies used quantitative methods (n=34), some used qualitative methods (n=13), and few used mixed methods (n=3). Likert scales and semi-structured interviews were the most used tools for quantitative and qualitative assessments, respectively. Across the 50 studies, 40 different tools were used to assess food-related behaviors and only 14 studies claimed using validated tools. Few studies included a full tool in text or in supplemental material (n=23). Currently, there is little alignment on how to assess food choice behaviors in South Asia, highlighting the need for a contextually adaptable repository of tools. Adapting and validating existing tools, rather than creating new ones, could improve efficiency, continuity, and comparability.

Food price stabilization: Theory and lessons from experience

Farmers agronomic management responses to extreme drought and rice yields in Bihar, India

In 2022, the Indian state of Bihar experienced its sixth driest year in over a century. To document the consequences and farmer responses to the meteorological drought, real-time survey data was collected across 11 districts of Bihar. We then developed a causal machine learning model to quantify drought impacts on rice production and to characterize how access to affordable irrigation from electric pumps mitigated productivity losses. This model addresses the empirical challenge of conducting a counterfactual causal analysis when a factor like drought affects nearly all sampled farmers. In the 2022 event, drought led to rice acreage reduction, transplanting delays, damage to seedling nurseries, and higher use rates of supplemental irrigation. For fields that were planted, average yield losses from water stress were estimated as 0.94 t/ha (∼23 % yield loss) with these losses reduced by 0.3 t/ha in fields with access to electric tubewells. Agronomic management practices such as earlier transplanting were also identified as complementary strategies that increased the adaptation value of investments in irrigation. To reduce the impact of drought in Bihar, additional investments in electric irrigation infrastructure are needed along with focused extension efforts and decision support systems that empower farmers to make economically and sustainably rational use of available water resources to maintain yield and profitability.

Resilience in technical efficiency and enabling factors: Insights from panel farm enterprise surveys in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Multivariate stability analysis to select elite rice (Oryza sativa L.) genotypes for grain yield, zinc and iron

The present study was conducted to evaluate 30 rice genotypes at three different locations in eastern Uttar Pradesh during the Wet- 2020–21 and determine the impact of GEI on grain yield (tha-1), days to 50% flowering, grain Fe content (PPM), and grain Zn content (PPM). The study also aimed to identify the genotypes that displayed the best performance according to the multi-trait stability index (MTSI), multi-trait genotype-ideotype distance index (MGIDI), and factor analysis and ideotype-design (FAI-BLUP) index. AMMI analysis demonstrated significant variation for environment (E), genotype (G), and genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) (P < 0.01) for all the studied traits. The AMMI1 biplot showed that PC1 explained the majority of the variation for GY (77.6%), DTF (90.5%), Fe (73.5%), and Zn (86.8%), helping to identify stable and high-performing genotypes. AMMI2 biplot further resolved complex GEI patterns, highlighting genotypes with specific adaptability to individual environments. The GGE biplot revealed clear “which-won-where” patterns for GY, DTF, Fe, and Zn, explaining 94.37%, 99.71%, 83.49%, and 96.93% of GEI variation, respectively. BLUP analysis using a linear mixed model revealed significant GEI effects for GY, DTF, Fe, and Zn across 30 rice genotypes in three environments. Low heritability was observed for Fe (28.2%) and moderate for GY (54.4%) and Zn (56.4%), while DTF showed high heritability with strong genotypic accuracy. Genotype G7 was identified as stable, early, high-yielding, and rich in Fe based on HMGV, RPGV, and HMRPGV indices. The MTSI, MGIDI and FAI-BLUP analysis revealed that BHU-SKS-1 (G15) and IR105696 -1–2-3–1-1–1 -B (G9) were the most stable and best mean performer for high grain yield and high grain Fe & Zn content, while IR 108,195–3-1–1-2 (G7) was the most stable and best mean performer for high grain yield and high grain Fe content with early flowering.

Exploring rancidity in pearl millet flour: A lipidomic and biochemical approach

Methods for estimating beneficiary populations targeted by health and nutrition interventions for women, pregnant women, infants, and young children

Utilization of maternal and child interventions is typically tracked in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) using coverage estimates from population representative surveys. These estimates cannot be directly applied to assess resource gaps in intervention delivery for which data on the population eligible is required. Moreover, coverage improvements may not necessarily reflect an expansion in utilization because of a decline in the population eligible. We develop a method to estimate the populations eligible for interventions across the continuum of care. The method uses data from the World Population Prospects and the Demographic Health Survey, data sources which are available for most LMICs. Additionally, we develop a method to estimate the eligible population covered by each intervention. Using the illustration of India, we estimate populations eligible for, and covered by interventions during preconception, pregnancy, delivery, lactation, and childhood. We find that between 2015 and 2020, the eligible population declined for all beneficiary groups. Additionally, coverage expansion was not entirely driven by an increase in the population accessing an intervention, but rather also by a decline in the eligible population. Our illustration highlights the importance of including population estimates alongside coverage for interventions, particularly in LMIC contexts due to changing fertility dynamics.

Aggregation models in agricultural value chains of staple crops and their potential application for biofortification: A scoping review

Aflatoxin contamination of maize flour in Kenya: Results from multi-city, multi-round surveillance

Foodborne illness is a major source of the global burden of disease, but public monitoring of hazards in food systems is overwhelmingly focused on the formal sector in high income countries. We contribute to the development of an evidence base on food safety risk in low-income and informal settings by monitoring aflatoxin prevalence in maize flour in Kenya. Aflatoxin is a contaminant which causes liver cancer and has been linked to childhood stunting. We carry out systematic monitoring of formally and informally processed maize flour from a range of retail vendors across ten urban sites in Kenya and analyze aflatoxin levels in commercial samples. Samples were obtained every two months from February-December 2021 and 1255 samples in total were analyzed. Almost all samples (97%) showed detectable levels of aflatoxin, with 16% of tested samples exceeding the national regulatory limit of 10 ppb. Mean contamination levels are significantly higher (p < 0.001) in informal market samples (9.9 ppb) than in packaged flour in the formal sector (4.9 ppb). We find important seasonal variation in aflatoxin levels, which are highest in our June sample and lowest in December, which we attribute to variation in sourcing of maize grain. Our results demonstrate the need for policy interventions to reduce aflatoxin exposure in Kenya and demonstrate the utility of coordinated monitoring efforts to track levels of food safety risk in low-income settings.

The role of genotyping in measuring improved variety adoption and impact: Advances, challenges, and policy directions

Accurate measurement of agricultural technology adoption is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of investments in agricultural research and development. While household surveys have long served as the primary tool for tracking varietal adoption, growing evidence reveals systematic mismatches between self-reported and DNA verified varietal identity. These mismatches arise from distinct local and scientific varietal nomenclatures, complex seed systems, and high varietal release rates. This review examines the emerging role of genotyping, particularly DNA fingerprinting, as a complementary method for varietal identification and adoption measurement. Drawing on a growing body of studies across crops and geographies, we assess how DNA fingerprinting alters adoption estimates, reveals patterns of varietal misclassification, and enhances our understanding of seed system performance. We identify critical design considerations for implementing DNA fingerprinting at scale, including sampling strategies, reference library construction, and integration with standard household surveys. The review also highlights methodological innovations to reduce DNA fingerprinting costs and explores how fingerprinting can inform monitoring, evaluation, and scaling of agricultural innovations. Finally, we outline key research and policy priorities to mainstream DNA fingerprinting into national agricultural systems and to support more evidence-based, accountable, and equitable food policy.

Prospects of crop insurance for sustenance of farmers’ livelihood during GM cotton crop failure in Indian Punjab

Despite the susceptibility of cotton crops to pest attacks in the Malwa Region of Indian Punjab, no crop insurance policy has been implemented there– not even the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), which is a central scheme. Therefore, this paper attempts to gauge the likely impact of the PMFBY on Punjab cotton farmers and assess the changes needed for greater uptake and effectiveness of PMFBY.The authors have conducted a primary survey to conduct this study. Initially, the authors compared the costs of cotton production with the returns in two scenarios (with and without insurance). Additionally, the authors have applied a logistic regression framework to examine the determinants of the willingness of farmers to participate in the crop insurance market.The study finds that net returns of cotton crops are conventionally small and insufficient to cope with damages from crop failure. Yet, PMFBY will require some modifications in the premium rate and the level of indemnity for its greater uptake among Punjab cotton farmers. Additionally, using the logistic regression framework, the authors find that an increase in awareness about crop insurance and farmers’ perceptions about their crop failure in the near future reduces the willingness of the farmers to participate in the crop insurance markets.The present study looks for the viability of PMFBY in Indian Punjab for the cotton crop, which can also be extended to other crops.Punjab could also use crop insurance to encourage diversification in agriculture. There is a need for special packages for diversified crops under any crop insurance policy. Crops susceptible to volatility due to climate-related factors should be identified and provided with a special insurance package.There exist very scant studies that have discussed the viability of a central crop insurance scheme in the agricultural-rich state of India, i.e. Punjab. Moreover, they do not also focus on crop losses accruing due to pest and insect attacks.

Cities and agricultural development

In recent decades, rapid urbanization in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has significantly affected agrifood systems and agricultural development. Innovations in transportation, storage, and value chains, as well as the expansion of nonfarm sectors, have transformed rural communities and reshaped agricultural production patterns. This review revisits the evolving link between cities and agriculture in LMICs, drawing on key theoretical frameworks and recent empirical findings. Three major pathways determining the interaction between urban centers and agricultural development emerge. First, transportation costs and access to urban markets continue to influence agricultural decision-making. Second, changing consumer preferences following urbanization and growing integration into global agrifood value chains drive lasting changes in local farming systems. Third, the expansion of urban nonfarm labor markets is shifting labor away from farms, with uncertain consequences for agricultural development. As a result, the empirical evidence is often context specific. JEL codes: J61, O18, Q12, Q15, R11, R14

The unintended consequences of social transfer programs: Effects on conflict, governance, and social cohesion

While the role of social transfers in reducing poverty and encouraging welfare-enhancing behaviors is well-established, emerging evidence shows that they also significantly impact both political and social attitudes and behaviors. This article undertakes a systematic review of the quantitative evidence on these typically unintended impacts, highlighting a broad set of outcomes related to both citizen–citizen (horizontal) and state–citizen (vertical) relationships. We identify mixed findings. Although social transfers have been shown to enhance political engagement, institutional trust, and social cohesion, other studies suggest they may undermine these outcomes. We highlight key factors that may explain these varied findings, highlighting both characteristics of the recipients as well as features of the governance and the programs themselves.

Gender-just mitigation in the agrifood systems sector: Potential and pitfalls

Mitigation action in agrifood systems is essential for addressing growing negative impacts from climate change. It remains unclear, however, to what extent mitigation in the agrifood systems space addresses gender inequalities and involves women as agents of climate action. This article reviews the literature to identify the main linkages between gender and mitigation in agrifood systems, examines the key barriers preventing women from equitably participating in and benefiting from mitigation actions in agrifood systems, and concludes with best practices to mainstream gender in mitigation actions in a substantive and sustainable way. Promising approaches include strengthening women’s land rights; supporting women’s economic empowerment through access to finance, information, and opportunities; and supporting women’s groups. JEL codes: Q10, Q18, Q20, Q24, Q54

Confidence and information usage: Evidence from soil testing in India

Informational barriers are often considered to be a major constraint to the adoption of improved farming practices, inputs, and technologies by smallholder farmers. In the Indian context, it is widely believed that farmers misapply chemical fertilizers because they lack scientific information on soil conditions and corresponding fertilizer recommendations, thus resulting in imbalanced and potentially detrimental fertilizer application. Policymakers are frequently interested in providing farmers with various streams of information to overcome these informational barriers to optimize farming activities. However, such informational interventions frequently fail either because generic recommendations may be ill-suited for decision makers in highly heterogeneous agricultural environments or because farmers’ beliefs may be so entrenched as to make them unresponsive to new information. We implemented a field experiment in Bihar, India to test whether plot-specific fertilizer recommendations affect farmers’ fertilizer use. We find little evidence for sizable impacts on fertilizer use in general, though impacts are more apparent for low cost or costless recommendations such as increasing the use of highly subsidized fertilizers or shifting the timing of application. Despite modest evidence of such effects, even those fall short of their potential magnitude. We show that treated farmers who are less confident in their subjective beliefs about optimal fertilizer application rates (i.e., with more disperse priors) are more responsive to the recommendations and have a higher ex ante willingness to pay for soil testing. These results suggest that heterogeneity in beliefs may constrain the overall effectiveness of information provision, even when the information is tailored to individual farms. JEL Classification: D83, O13

Simulated impact of vitamin A-fortified sugar on dietary adequacy and association of usual sugar intake with plasma and breast milk retinol among lactating Zambian women

In Zambia, mandatory sugar fortification with vitamin A (VA) has been implemented, but its impact on VA inadequacy and status has yet to be assessed. This study evaluated the contribution of VA-fortified sugar to dietary VA adequacy and the relationship between dietary intakes and VA status in 243 lactating women, based on 24-h dietary recalls in Mkushi, Zambia. We estimated usual intake distributions and the prevalence of VA adequacy using the National Cancer Institute (NCI) method across five scenarios: without sugar fortification; with fortification at 3.1 or 8.8 mg/kg (median levels previously measured in Mkushi); at 10 mg/kg (the minimum legal requirement at the household level), and at 15 mg/kg (the minimum legal requirement at the factory level). We applied the regression calibration method to examine associations of usual intake of sugar and dietary VA with plasma and breast milk retinol concentrations. Without fortified sugar, the estimated prevalence of dietary VA inadequacy was 83% (standard error [SE]: 6). Projected reductions in VA inadequacy were 7 (SE: 6), 24 (SE: 14), 30 (SE: 15) and 47 (SE: 18) percentage points for sugar fortification at 3.1, 8.8, 10 and 15 mg/kg, respectively. Usual sugar intake was not significantly associated with plasma or breast milk retinol concentrations. The potential impacts of sugar fortification on VA intakes are limited if the programme is not implemented as planned. Even if the target fortification levels are achieved (10 mg/kg), sugar fortification alone is unlikely to eliminate dietary VA

The EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems

Food prices are likely to remain high and volatile

Consumers around the world have seen food prices going up ever since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. While food price inflation has slowed more recently, concerns over the rising cost of living have not gone away. Why is this and should we expect the cost of our daily meals to go up even more in the foreseeable future?

Rural income diversification in Ethiopia: Drivers and welfare impact

Diversification of rural households into the nonfarm economy is a key driver of economic growth and structural transformation in countries where agriculture remains the primary source of livelihood. This study examines trends and patterns of income diversification, its determinants, and its association with household welfare in rural Ethiopia. Our analysis indicates that rural households in Ethiopia continued to rely primarily on farming, with only marginal diversification of income sources during 2012–2019, despite the broader context of rapid economic growth. Crop production remains the main source of income, followed by livestock, while nonfarm activities contribute 17–24% of total household income. Factor endowments and local conditions, including rainfall, play a crucial role in shaping diversification decisions. In particular, the 2015–16 drought appears to have pushed households to increase engagement in nonfarm income-generating activities. Importantly, income diversification is associated with higher household consumption, improved dietary diversity, and better housing quality, highlighting the potential of expanding the rural nonfarm economy to enhance household welfare.

Looks matter? Field performance and farmers’ preferences for drought-tolerant maize in Kenya

Context To help farmers adapt to climate change, breeding programs have developed drought-tolerant (DT) maize varieties, but varietal turnover among smallholder farmers is slow. One possible reason for low adoption is that DT varieties produce higher yields than older hybrid maize varieties but are not visibly more drought tolerant, especially if morphology is a factor in farmers’ varietal choice. Objectives Motivated by this conjecture, our first objective is to compare the drought tolerance of a new hybrid DT maize variety and older varieties under farmer-managed conditions in terms of both morphology and yields. Our second objective is to analyze whether increasing farmers’ exposure to this variety increases their awareness of its DT traits and subsequent adoption. Methods We leverage a project that provided seed trial packs of a new DT maize variety to randomly selected farmers in seven counties in Kenya with varying rainfall conditions. Picture-based crop monitoring across two seasons yielded a novel panel dataset of 18,225 smartphone images labeled for drought damage, and, for a subsample of fields, yields. We use this dataset to compare the performance of promoted and commonly grown varieties. We then use exogenous variation in receiving trial packs to analyze how providing trial packs affects varietal preferences and adoption. Results and conclusion The promoted variety produces higher yields than other varieties. Under good conditions, it also appears visibly less damaged during the flowering stage, but morphological differences disappear under more severe moisture stress, and once the crop reaches maturity. Consistent with these observations, treatment farmers do not perceive this variety to be more drought tolerant than other varieties and are more likely to plant the promoted variety only when receiving a free trial pack. Significance It could be that limited visibility of DT traits hinders sustained adoption. Increasing adoption of DT varieties to enhance climate change adaptation in drought-prone regions may require facilitating prolonged learning and experimentation opportunities, increasing awareness of how DT traits manifest themselves in terms of yields and morphology under varying rainfall conditions, and, costs permitting, selecting for visible DT traits in plant breeding.

Miracle seeds: Biased expectations, complementary input use, and the dynamics of smallholder technology adoption

To fully benefit from new agricultural technologies like improved seed varieties, significant investment in complementary inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides, and practices such as systematic planting, irrigation, and weeding are also required. Farmers may fail to recognize the importance of these complements, leading to disappointing crop yields and outputs and, eventually, dis-adoption of the improved variety. Using a field experiment, we test an information intervention among smallholder maize farmers in eastern Uganda that points out these complementarities. We find that farmers adopt less after they have been sensitized about the need to use complementary inputs to unlock the adoption premium. We rationalize this finding with a simple theoretical model where farmers have mis-specified mental models of the technology production function and conclude that most farmers in our sample do indeed believe in miracle seeds.

The role of access to expressways on industrial clustering development in China

JEL codes: D80; L60; O10

From promises to action: Analyzing global commitments to tackle hunger and food insecurity

High-level declarations and commitment statements are a common output of global, intergovernmental meetings and critical to their continued public legitimacy. Yet, to what extent have such statements served as roadmaps for concrete action? To address this question, this paper focuses on commitments to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2, which aims to end hunger, achieve food security, and promote sustainable agriculture by 2030. Using a structured framework with seven domains, we analyzed 148 intergovernmental commitment documents emerging from 78 global meetings focused on SDG2 and organized by ten different global bodies between 2015 and 2023. We find that stated visions to address SDG2 increasingly have been emphasized at global meetings over time but that specific actions to accelerate progress towards SDG2 were weaker. For instance, we find few examples of how needed actions will be scaled up over time, how financing might be mobilized, and how to strengthen horizontal (i.e. multi-sectoral) and vertical (i.e. multi-level) policy coherence. Progress reports are often identified as the main tool for providing public accountability, but there rarely are any consequences to governments for failure to uphold their commitments. We offer several policy recommendations emanating from the analysis, including the need to institutionalize monitoring of SDG2 commitments—not just targets—in the next five years, and a better understanding of political economy factors that may inhibit global decisions from translating into national policy decisions.

Economy-wide implications of increasing school enrolment in Sub-Saharan Africa

The high number of out-of-school youth in developing countries constitutes a pressing challenge with profound implications for attaining sustainable development. Sudan, for example, has the fifth-highest number globally while struggling with sluggish economic growth and high youth unemployment. In this study, we assess the potential economy-wide implications of options to enhance enrolment among youth by lowering private household spending on education and training services, taking Sudan as a case study. Cost reduction is considered for: a) primary education, b) secondary education, c) primary and secondary education, and d) all formal educational cycles and vocational training. We developed a recursive-dynamic single-country Computable General Equilibrium (STAGE-Edu) model that captures vocational training, secondary education by type (vocational and non-vocational), and education and training choices at different levels, with broad coverage of existing bridges between education and training. STAGE-Edu also establishes endogenous and consistent linkages between the educational and training system and the skill levels of the labour force through six-stage nested production functions. The findings suggest that cost reduction in primary education significantly reduces the number of out-of-school children and enhances long-term economic growth. However, it increases dropouts from post-primary education and vocational training. In contrast, cost reduction for both primary and secondary education improves enrolment in the tertiary education cycle and promotes the overall skill composition. Funding such cost reductions from foreign development aid and grants yields higher economic benefits than increasing domestic taxes. JEL Classification: C68; H52; I25; O55

Zinc distribution in structural components of high kernel‑zinc maize and its retention after milling

High kernel‑zinc maize (HKZM) has the potential to contribute to addressing zinc deficiency in regions with high maize consumption, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, milling HKZM may lead to loss of zinc when removing the pericarp and embryo. This study evaluated the zinc distribution in kernel components of HKZM maize grown in different environments, and examined how milling affected its zinc concentration. The zinc concentration in HKZM lines was 27.0–30.7 μg g−1 while in conventional maize it was 19.5–22.6 μg g−1. Zinc in maize endosperm represented 20.5 to 28.2 % of the total kernel zinc while that in the embryo represented 68.1 to 75.7 %. HKZM retained 43 % of its kernel zinc after milling, resulting in flour with 5 μg g−1 higher zinc concentration compared to regular maize flour. Environmental factors had a significant effect on kernel zinc concentrations. Maize grain from commercial mills had 21 μg g−1 zinc, with zinc losses of 22 % to 65 % during milling, resulting in flours with 6–10 μg g−1 of zinc. While HKZM shows promise in alleviating zinc deficiency, its anticipated impact may be limited in regions where refined maize is frequently used for making foods. The development of maize varieties with higher zinc concentration in the endosperm, along with promoting increased consumption of less refined maize products can boost zinc intake for deficient populations.

Between code and conscience: Early-career researcher reflections on agroeconomic modelling and international research collaboration

Work on the second EAT-Lancet Commission report on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems began in 2022 and is now nearing completion after 3 years and contributions from more than 100 researchers. The economic modelling undertaken for the Commission was led by the Global Economics Team of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)—a collaboration that brings together ten global economic models and modelling teams across different institutions. This Viewpoint, authored by ten early-career researchers (ECRs) from AgMIP who worked on the global economic modelling for the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission, offers the first direct perspectives of ECRs in a large, international collaboration focused on the future of food systems and global economic modelling. The Viewpoint offers a forward-looking perspective on global agroeconomic modelling based on experiences during the project, starting with actionable strategies to enhance the inclusivity and sustainability of international research collaborations. The Viewpoint then identifies key limitations of the models used in the project and offers suggestions for improvement through better integration of demand, policy interventions, biophysical processes, and spatial aspects to increase accuracy and relevance. We build on the reflections on modelling to explain the central role of AgMIP-style research collaboration in the personal and professional development of ECRs. The Viewpoint concludes by reflecting on the broader futures assumed in the models and the implications of a changing political landscape on research from the perspective of ECRs.

Effect of terminal heat stress on stay-green and senescence process could explain genetic variation in grain yield and nutritional profile in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

Wheat is a staple food crop for the majority of the world’s population. Heat stress affects reproductive development, seed-set and seed weight, eventually reducing yield and total biomass in wheat. Stay-green contributes to seed weight by allowing more assimilate partitioning to grain. Conversely, senescence is essential for the recycling of nutrients to developing grain. We have studied a set of 26 high-yielding wheat genotypes to study the effect of terminal heat stress on the stay-green and senescence process to explain genetic variation and trade-off associated between grain yield and grain nutrients under field conditions. Our results revealed that heat stress accelerated the senescence process and significantly reduced average grain filling duration by 8 days. The negative effect of heat stress on spikelet fertility and seed weight resulted in reduced grain yield (25%). On the contrary, a positive influence of heat was observed on grain protein (6–21%), grain minerals, and reduced C:N ratio. Interestingly, genotype (HTWYT42) with a longer stay-green period, showed higher yield under heat stress, whereas genotype (HTWYT43) showed early onset but a slower pace of senescence accumulating more grain protein, minerals and lower C:N ratio under heat stress. This study demonstrates a strong trade-off between grain yield and nutrition. However, maintaining an optimum balance between stay-green and a slower rate of senescence could be crucial to minimizing this trade-off, and achieving both higher yield and improve grain nutrition. Furthermore, understanding the mechanisms underlying slower senescence in source tissues could be essential for developing wheat genotypes with enhanced grain nutrient content.

Is subjective wellbeing too subjective? The (large) impact of randomized placement of happiness and worry questions in a national survey of crisis-affected Myanmar

Exploring the barriers and facilitators of nutrition and dietary intake among school-aged children in the urban low-income setting of Addis Ababa

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Healthy eating supports mental clarity, physical development, and focus in the classroom. However, government policy, cultural customs, education, family income, and food access, influence children’s nutrition, which in turn affects school-age children’s growth, development, and academic achievement. This study aimed to explore the barriers and facilitators influencing the nutritional and dietary intake of school-age children in urban low-income settings in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. SUBJECTS/METHODS A total of 10 schools (6 public and 4 private) from 2 subcities in Addis Ababa participated in a qualitative phenomenological study conducted in May 2024. Focus group discussions, key informant interviews (KIIs), and in-depth interviews (IDIs) with 92 participants were used to gather data. A total of 77 participants (41 male, 36 female) participated in 6 focus groups, 10 IDIs, and 5 KIIs from the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Education, Save the Children, Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH), and Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI). Using MAXQDA software, native language data were transcribed, translated, and then thematically analyzed. RESULTS Two major themes emerged from the study’s findings. The fisrt one is barriers to healthy nutrition and dietary intake in school-aged children, including lack of awareness, inadequate and unhealthy dietary practices, financial hardship and time constraints within households, parental lack of awareness, food accessibility issues, poor infrastructure, and inconsistent policies. These factors were described as potential contributors to challenges in children’s nutrition. The second one is facilitators, which include school meal programs, community engagement, family support, physical activity, and policy support for healthy eating, all of which are seen as promoting healthier dietary behaviors and possibly improving children’s focus and participation in school activities. CONCLUSION Several factors influence children’s diet and nutrition. Improving children’s nutritional and general well-being requires focused nutrition education, policy interventions, and the utilization of coordinators.

Beyond the bids: Lessons from farmers’ reflections on Vickrey auctions of sweetpotato vines in Rwanda

Context The use of high-quality seed can significantly enhance nutrition, food security, poverty alleviation, and climate change adaptation in rural farming communities. Economic valuation methods can be used to assess farmers’ demand for such seed. However, the reproductive biology of seed and the social and economic institutions surrounding their production and exchange vary widely across crops and regions. Objective It is important to understand how such contextual factors relate to the assumptions that underly economic valuation methods. In this paper, we qualitatively evaluated an experimental Vickery auction conducted in Rwanda which aimed to identify farmers demand for disease-free vines of orange-fleshed sweet potato rich in Vitamin A. Method Data were gathered through observations of and in-depth interviews with participating farmers, focusing on their experiences, strategies, and motivations during the auction. We examined farmers’ reflections on the experimental auctions—rather than the auction results themselves—to understand context-specificity and methodological replicability. Results and conclusion Our findings reveal that farmers assigned value to the vines in diverse ways, shaped by personal experience, social norms, and local exchange practices—often diverging from the assumptions of auction theory. These dynamics raise concerns about the validity and reliability of the auction outcomes. Significance Although auctions are an increasingly popular tool to evaluate the value of seeds and traits in smallholder farming systems, and although considerable effort has been put into examining mechanisms leading to product overestimation and underestimation in auction settings, this study offers a novel qualitative perspective that uncovers several reasons that explain deviations in the context of an experimental Vickrey auction for sweetpotato vines in rural Rwanda. Our findings highlight the challenges of using auction-based methods in capturing demand when used to value goods that are reproductive, socially embedded, and exchanged outside formal markets.

Bundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment

Background Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. Methods In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. Findings Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). Interpretation This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Policy and regulation in seed sector development for vegetatively propagated crops: Insights from Kenya, Nigeria, and Vietnam

Context In many low- and middle-income countries, smallholder farmers cultivating vegetatively propagated crops (VPCs) have limited access to quality planting material. This constraint can limit both the yield and returns to VPC cultivation. Yet policy and regulations designed to strengthen access to quality VPC planting materials and scale innovative programs that deliver these materials have been relatively unsuccessful to date. Part of the problem lies the unique biological and economic characteristics of vegetative propagation and its distinctness from cereal crops that dominate narratives on seed sector reforms and the resulting policy and regulatory regimes. Objective The study analyzes both theory and evidence on existing and alternative models of regulation that may incentivize cost-effective multiplication and distribution in VPC seed systems and markets. Methods The study draws on case studies of policy and practice related to quality assurance regulations in four crop-country combinations: cassava in Nigeria and Vietnam, and potato in Kenya and Vietnam. The case studies rely on qualitative analysis that was conducted using a combination of key informant interviews, focus group discussions, analysis of regulatory documents, and analysis of publicly available secondary data. Results and conclusions The study describes five strategies for regulating VPC seed systems in our four crop-country combinations, each with its own generalizable costs and benefits. The application (or marginalization) of these strategies is often shaped by fluid coalitions of actors with competing interests and framing narratives, and driven by organizational innovations, technological opportunities, trade relationships, and crises that are crop- and country-specific. Significance These findings suggest that regulations designed around strict, centralized quality control systems tend to limit market size, while more localized production systems are limited by both capacity and reach. They also suggest the need for alternatives that balance a permissive regulatory regime with decentralized production systems, grassroots capacity development, market surveillance, and systems that integrate multiple approaches to quality assurance. A detailed set of policy recommendations follows from these findings that inform ongoing country efforts to revise VPC seed sector policies and regulations—reforms that are being pursued not only in the crop-country case studies highlighted here, but also in other countries in both Africa and Asia.

Affordability and nutritional challenges for the future of EAT diets: An economic modelling analysis

Background Affordability limits healthy diet adoption, especially in low-income settings, yet dietary shifts are key for transition to sustainable food systems. This study models how a diet in line with the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission dietary transition might impact calorie availability, share of income spent on food, nutrition availability, and food prices. Methods We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to estimate food price changes under three alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and global adoption of a 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet by 2050. We analyse price shifts for the two cheapest commodities per food group, in each region, weighted on calorie availability per dollar. Additionally, we assess gaps between nutrient availability and reference nutrient intake and changes in the share of income spent on food for the whole diet. Findings Adoption of the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet leads to heterogeneous impacts on the share of income spent on food and nutrient availability, with gains in folate, iron, and zinc, but declines in vitamin A by 2050. The combined price index for the cheapest two commodities declines by 2050 compared with 2020 in both higher-income and lower-income countries. Interpretation Although dietary shifts towards the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet could offset some of the increases in prices seen in a business-as-usual world, we observed unintended effects on nutrient availability ratios, especially in lower-income countries. The decreasing price index for the cheapest two commodities reflects market adjustments to changes in demand and supply under scenario assumptions aligned with 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission goals for jointly improved human and environmental health. The observed nutrient deficiencies suggest the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet limits on animal-sourced foods might be too strict for lower-income countries, which could exacerbate nutrient deficiencies in contexts where access to animal sourced foods is already low (eg, vitamin A), especially if there is no access to supplementation for meeting these nutritional requirements or other sources of dietary nutrients.

Analysis of antibiotic use, biosecurity and mortality in semi-intensive broiler farms in Kenya

The indiscriminate use of antibiotics in food-producing animals contributes to antimicrobial resistance (AMR), posing a global threat. Understanding the factors associated with antibiotic use is critical to combat resistance while maintaining animal health. This study examined antibiotic use practices, mortality rates, biosecurity levels, as well as the associations between biosecurity and antibiotic use, and between biosecurity and mortality, in semi-intensive broiler farms in Kenya. The study was conducted in 129 semi-intensive farms with total flock sizes between 200 and 2000 birds across three peri-urban counties in Kenya. Data were collected prospectively over one production cycle, with farms visited biweekly using questionnaires and a drug bin approach. Biosecurity levels were assessed by a panel of experts who weighted scores for various external and internal biosecurity subcategories. Directed acyclic graphs (DAG) described potential relationships between explanatory variables, confounders and outcome. Logistic regression analysis was conducted with antibiotic use as the outcome variable. Explanatory variables with P < 0.25 in the univariable logistic regression were included in the multivariable regression. Similarly, linear regression was conducted using mortality as the outcome. Overall, 72% of farms used antibiotics, primarily for prophylaxis (66%), with erythromycin and oxytetracycline being the most commonly used antibiotics. The median mortality rate across the production cycle was 6%. There was no significant difference in mortality between farms using antibiotics and those not using antibiotics. Biosecurity practices were low, with a median biosecurity score of 14.3/67.9. Univariable screening suggested potential associations between antibiotic use and vaccination of day-old chicks, flock size, cleaning protocol for chicken drinkers, resting period between batches, feed store cleaning, water source, distance from neighbouring farms, and age. However, these were not significant in multivariable logistic regression. Linear regression showed an association between mortality and biosecurity measures, specifically disease management and visitor entry regulation. This study highlights widespread antibiotic use, low biosecurity implementation, and variability in mortality rates in the farms surveyed. There is a gap in farmers’ implementation of effective biosecurity measures and understanding of prudent antibiotic use. An urgent need exists to develop comprehensive data collection methodologies, education, and interventions to promote responsible antibiotic stewardship and cost-effective biosecurity practices among poultry farmers in Kenya.

Biofortification as a food-based strategy to improve nutrition in high-income countries: A scoping review

Biofortification (increasing the micronutrient content of food before harvest) has been successfully used to nutritionally improve staple foods in low- and middle-income countries. This approach could also help address micronutrient shortfalls in at-risk populations in high-income countries (HICs), however, the potential of biofortification interventions in this context is not well understood. The aim of this scoping review is to assess the nature and extent of available research evidence on biofortified foods in relation to human consumption in HICs. Literature searches were conducted in MEDLINE, WoS, ProQuest, CINAHL, AGRIS and Epistemonikos. Forty-six peer-reviewed articles were included. Most research was conducted in the USA (n = 15) and Italy (n = 11), on cereal crops (n = 14) and vegetables (n = 11), and on selenium (n = 12) and provitamin A (n = 11). Seven research domains were identified in the literature: bioavailability (n = 17); nutrient stability (n = 11); opinions and attitudes (n = 9); functionality (n = 9); sensory properties (n = 2); safety (n = 1); and modeling (n = 1). Evidence from HICs in each domain is limited. There is a need for more research particularly in areas sensitive to the cultural and socio-economic context.

Can the global drone revolution make agriculture more sustainable? Rapid growth in drone use is upending expectations but also inducing trade-offs

Use of drones has increased considerably over the past decade, reshaping activities as diverse as warfare, entertainment, delivery services, and disease control. One of the most consequential uses of drones—in agriculture—has taken off globally within only the past 5 years. This is upending expectations and may help to reconcile a fundamental sustainability dilemma—how to produce more food by using fewer inputs—but is also inducing trade-offs. This rapid change has been largely unnoticed by researchers outside of the specialized technical worlds of aeronautical engineering and precision agriculture. Little academic attention has been paid to the use of agricultural drones beyond the laboratory or trial plot. Evidence of the extent and effects of drones’ real-world use is partial and fragmentary. We explored evidence and hypotheses about global agricultural drone diffusion and its implications for sustainability and set out an agenda for future policy and science.

Phytosanitary challenges and solutions for roots and tubers in the tropics

Vegetatively propagated crops such as cassava, potato, sweetpotato, and yam, or roots and tubers (RTs), play a major role in food security in low- and middle-income countries, yet phytosanitary issues in the tropics lead to substantial yield and quality losses. Challenges to production include institutional limitations that prevent effective responses and potential buildup of pathogens during clonal propagation. Addressing these challenges in a climate change context and diverse sociocultural environments requires a multifaceted approach, including improving access and availability to clean seed by strengthening seed systems; breeding for host resistance and disseminating resistant varieties; strengthening on-farm seed management; and designing effective policies and regulations to deal with seedborne diseases. Vital cross-cutting activities that can help to tackle the phytosanitary challenges of RTs include capacity strengthening, research on emergent pathogens, and improving regional cooperation and harmonization of phytosanitary standards to manage transboundary seed movement.

A global and some national perspectives on the current evidence of interventions on fruit and vegetable intake in low-, middle-, and high-income countries

Adequate amounts of fruit and vegetables (F&V) are an important part of a healthy diet, yet intake is suboptimal in most population groups worldwide. To better understand the evidence of strategies aiming to improve F&V intake, we conducted a scoping review of interventions assessing the impact on F&V intake, including those aiming to improve F&V intake explicitly and those targeting diet, health, lifestyle, or food environment generally. Among all eligible interventions reviewed, most of which were implemented in high-income countries, about half reported a significant positive impact on fruit and/or vegetable intake. Interventions that used a multicomponent strategy (61%) and those that focused on F&V specifically (72%) were most likely to find a significant increase in fruit and/or vegetable intake. Detailed summaries are provided in 2 accompanying articles. In the present article, we put these findings into perspective. Specifically, we considered the evidence for 4 target countries of the Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets Initiative: Benin, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Tanzania. When considering available evidence at the national level, there is a paucity of information from intervention trials despite evidence of inadequate F&V intakes in each of these countries. When considering available evidence at the global level, and especially for low-and-middle income countries, there is a critical need to strengthen the evidence across various intervention strategies, particularly related to targeting, timing, intensity, duration, frequency, and other key characteristics, to better understand how to enhance their impact on F&V intake in various population groups and contexts.

Developing green nutritious super rice for a healthy anthropocene

Exploring women’s dietary diversity amidst climate variability: A comparative analysis across eight low- and middle- income countries

It is anticipated that climate change and climate variability will threaten food and nutrition security through multiple pathways, yet evidence on its impact on minimum dietary diversity for women (MDD-W),especially in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) is limited. Using Bayesian hierarchical statistical modeling, we analyzed the impacts of climate variability on MDD-W, of 142 484 non-pregnant women, aged 15–49 years, in eight LMICs (Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cˆote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nepal and Tanzania). All analyses were adjusted for survey weights and sampling design and analyzed separately. The proportion of women achieving MDD-Wtheprevious day of the survey ranged between 20.8% and 57.3%. In the full model, enabling variables including climate change and variability generally showed significant negative associations with MDD-W (precipitation and land surface temperature anomalies, daytime and nighttime long-term land surface temperature variability), whereby the adjusted odds of women’s dietary diversity was reduced by 9%–37% due to climatic variables. Underlying variables such as growing season, nutrient yield and enhanced vegetation index had limited associations across countries. In fact, for nutrient yields, the direction of association differed by country and nutrients. Immediate variables were significantly positively associated with MDD-W in almost all countries with an adjusted odds of women’s dietary diversity increasing by 6%–92%, including household wealth (n = 8), women’s media access (n = 8), women’s education (n = 7), improved sanitation and women’s employment (n = 5) and women’s landownership (n = 3). The month of the survey was associated with MDD-W in four countries, but the direction of association varied by country. These findings suggest that safeguarding women’s diet diversity from climate change requires adaptation efforts that target vulnerable populations to ensure nutrition.

Assessing institutional capacities to demand and use nutrition data for decision-making in Nigeria’s health sector: A mixed-methods study

Background Using data for policy design, program implementation and accountability is a priority among nutrition stakeholders in Nigeria. However, the capacities of decision-makers to use data are not well-defined. Objective This study used mixed methods to assess the capacity of institutions within Nigeria’s health sector to demand and use data for decision-making on nutrition policies and programs. Methods A quantitative scale capturing organizational and individual factors related to the capacity to demand and use data was administered to 92 nutrition stakeholders in Nigeria across federal government (n = 33), state government (n = 21) and local government areas (LGAs) (n = 29) and development partner organizations (n = 9). We compared scores across sub-groups. Key informant interviews (KIIs) with a subset of the federal (n = 13), state (n = 17), LGA (n = 30), and development partner (n = 11) respondents complemented the quantitative scale and were analysed thematically. Results Mean institutional capacity to demand and use data was 78.6 out of 100 [95% confidence interval (CI) 75.9, 81.3]. The mean organizational capacity score was 51.4 out of 60 (95% CI 49.9, 52.9); individual capacity was 27.2 out of 40 (95% CI 25.7, 28.7). Development partners (mean 85.7; 95% CI 78.9, 92.4) had the highest score, followed by state-level respondents (mean 82.3; 95% CI 76.9, 87.6), but differences were not significant. Both quantitative and qualitative results showed recognition and support for nutrition data demand and use but weak organizational mechanisms to ensure data use. Accessing available nutrition data was a challenge, especially for administrative data. Quantitative and qualitative results identified infrastructural and technological resource barriers for government respondents, especially at the LGA level, but not for development partners. Skills to synthesize and use nutrition data were also a challenge across respondent groups. Conclusions Government and non-government stakeholders in Nigeria’s health sector recognize the importance of data for nutrition decision-making, but gaps remain in individual capacity, resources and data use processes. To strengthen data use for nutrition policy process, investments to address gaps are needed.

Preventing relapse from wasting: the role of sociodemographic, child feeding, and health care determinants and of wasting prevention interventions in Burkina Faso and Mali

Background Relapse among children treated for wasting is a major concern. We estimated the frequency and determinants of relapse to wasting in two populations exposed to PROMIS, an integrated wasting prevention and screening program. Methods Using longitudinal data from PROMIS trials in Burkina Faso and Mali, we calculated the incidence rate and period prevalence of relapse to wasting within 6 months in children who had ≥1 wasting episode ending when they were ≥6 months old for which they were treated and recovered (NBurkina Faso=247; NMali=220). We used backward elimination to select a multivariable model of sociodemographic, nutrition- and health-related determinants of relapse. We also evaluated if prevention interventions (behavior change communication (BCC) and/or small quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS) were associated with relapse, adjusting for confounders and trial arm. Results Relapse incidence was 2.6 per child-year in Burkina Faso (N=291 episodes) and 1.6 per child-year in Mali (N=300 episodes). In both countries, being fed the recommended food frequency or iron-rich foods after recovering from wasting was associated with lower risk of relapse. In Mali, longer wasting episodes, lack of minimally diverse diet consumption, and several caregiver/household characteristics were associated with lower risk of relapse. In both countries, receipt of BCC after recovery from wasting was associated with lower risk of relapse (Incidence rate ratio [IRR]Burkina Faso = 0.51 [95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.30, 0.86]; IRRMali = 0.26 [95% CI = 0.11, 0.65]), as was receipt of SQ-LNS (IRRBurkina Faso = 0.33 [95% CI = 0.16, 0.70]; (IRRMali = 0.43 [95% CI = 0.19, 0.94]), after adjustments. Conclusion Children being discharged from wasting treatment are a well-defined vulnerable population who stand to benefit from targeted post-discharge preventive interventions. BCC that includes advice on optimal infant and young child feeding practices and SQ-LNS may help prevent wasting relapse in at-risk children.

Effect of adding milk to a micronutrient fortified high-energy biscuit school feeding programme in Yemen: A cluster-randomised controlled trial

Background Two billion children globally are estimated to live in conflict-affected areas. School feeding programmes (SFPs) are a widely implemented safety net that supports children during and after conflict. Objective We evaluated the effectiveness of providing milk alongside a high energy biscuits (HEBs) SFP in Yemen on children’s and caregivers’ outcomes. Methods We implemented a two-arm longitudinal cluster-randomised controlled trial from December 2023 to May 2024. 42 schools in Al Mukha district were randomly assigned (1:1) to: control, where children received HEBs (2 packets (100 grams) daily), or milk, where children received HEBs plus a 120 ml carton of ultra-high temperature milk. Children aged 6-18 years were randomly selected for enrolment. The primary outcomes were children’s dietary diversity and milk consumption. Secondary outcomes were children’s cognition, learning, attendance, nutritional status, and health. Tertiary outcomes were child and caregiver mental health, and household food security. We conducted intent-to-treat analysis using linear mixed effects models accounting for clustering. Results 1,299 children were enrolled. After five months, the intervention increased milk consumption, but had no effect on dietary diversity. Children’s cognition [mean difference (MD) 1.00 (95% CI 0.40, 1.61)], literacy [1.14 (0.36, 1.92)], and numeracy [1.06 (0.46, 1.67)] scores improved. Cough symptoms declined: -0.12 (-0.2, -0.03). There were no changes in school attendance or nutritional status. The intervention reduced conduct problems in children [-0.52 (-0.97, -0.08)], severe anxiety in caregivers [-0.03 (-0.06, -0.001)], and household severe food insecurity [-0.09 (-0.17, -0.001)]. Conclusions Adding a daily milk drink to an HEB SFP in Yemen resulted in numerous benefits for children and their families. Hybrid models to incrementally improve meal quality are feasible, acceptable, and lead to meaningful impacts. More research is needed on medium- and long-term benefits.

Varietal turnover in potato and its effect on yield: Evidence from household surveys in India

ABSTRACT: Potato remains a crucial crop for achieving India’s food security goals and generating income for small-scale farmers. But India, the largest potato producer after China, lags behind its peers in yield. One of the major reasons for low potato yield in India is the slow varietal replacement rate. Empirical exploration of this issue is limited in the Indian context. This study utilizes a comprehensive field survey conducted in 2018-19 that captures information on 892 potato growing farmers from five major potato-producing states in India, namely, Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. Varietal replacement is captured through area-weighted average age, calculated as the average of the ages of the major potato varieties grown by the farmer, weighted by the variety’s share in the area under potato cultivation. We then examine the determinants of the area-weighted average age of potato varieties using a probit model, and its impact on potato yield, using a two-stage-least-squares instrumental variable regression model with state fixed effects. The probit model indicates that bigger household size is associated with lower varietal age or quicker varietal replacement rate. Furthermore, links to political parties and information about new seeds from friends, progressive farmers and input dealers are also key determinants of varietal age for potato crop in India. The outcome of instrumental variable regression establishes a negative association between varietal age and yield of potato, indicating that the adoption of new and improved potato varieties can help farmers achieve higher yield. The analysis also reveals the importance of access to weather forecasting information and linkages with agricultural organizations to attain higher yield. Inclusive platforms that foster collaboration of farmers with input dealers, progressive peers, and researchers are key for encouraging varietal replacement. Extension programs and targeted outreach in politically networked communities may also help bridge information gap. To align innovation with on-ground needs, it is important to involve farmers in the development process of varieties. These insights are instrumental for policymakers in enhancing farmers’ decision-making and boosting food security in India amidst the impending demographic challenges.

Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: The case of maize in Myanmar

Identification, characterization, and determinants of dietary patterns of low-income urban adults in Vietnam and Nigeria

Understanding dietary patterns and their determinants can steer efforts to food systems transformations required to provide sustainable healthy diets. Based on 24-h recall data and using latent class analysis, we characterized dietary patterns of adults from low-income neighborhoods in Hanoi, Vietnam and Ibadan, Nigeria (n = 385 and 344, age 18–49 years). We examined sociodemographic determinants and diet quality (diversity, non-communicable disease risk, and micronutrient adequacy) of these patterns. Three dietary patterns were identified in each country. Vietnamese patterns differed in sociodemographic characteristics and diet quality. Nigerian patterns differed in diet quality but not in sociodemographics. Understanding different consumer groups and the drivers of consumption helps to identify tailored interventions to diversify diets and improve diet quality.

Financing food systems in times of global disorder

Global development financing is transforming alongside trade and political disruptions. We should focus on creating a more diverse and efficient food finance system, including repurposing public support and leveraging private investments, says Johan Swinnen. For full text of article see https://rdcu.be/eFev2

Agrifood value chain employment and compensation shift with structural transformation

The traditional structural transformation narrative emphasizes intersectoral labour reallocation out of agriculture, ignoring whether workers exit agrifood value chains or merely migrate within them. Here we decompose multiregional input–output table data into industry- and country-specific annual labour value-added estimates by final consumer market segment, matching them with industry-specific employment data to estimate average worker compensation. Using data covering most of the global economy over 1993–2021, we report ten stylized facts about labour reallocation amid structural transformation. As incomes grow, labour exits primary production while downstream agrifood value chain segments maintain a steady economy-wide employment share—offering jobs that pay better than farm work. Women disproportionately move from primary production to downstream, consumer-facing retail and food service, whereas men migrate to better-paying midstream jobs, increasing gender pay inequality within the value chain. Employment shifts are strongly associated with changes in national per capita income, but not with agricultural total factor productivity growth.