IFPRI Publications: Books

Food consumption patterns and dietary diversity amid conflict

Sudan is currently experiencing one of the most severe food security crises globally. According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) more than 21.2 million people—45 percent of the population—are acutely food insecure (IPC Phase 3 or above), with more than 146,000 people facing catastrophic levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 5) as of February 2026 (IPC 2025). As of September 2025, El-Fasher (North Darfur) and the besieged town of Kadugli (South Kordofan) were classified as experiencing famine (IPC Phase 5) with reasonable evidence. These conditions were expected to persist through January 2026. The crisis has also led to the acute malnutrition of 4.7 million children under five and pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls (IPC 2024a).

A Sudanese strategy for postconflict, agriculture-led transformative growth

The intense factional war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF) that erupted in April 2023 has devastated Sudan. This war is a tragic legacy of the kleptocratic regime of General Omar Al-Bashir, which ruled the country from 1989 until it was deposed by the leadership of the two armies in 2019, following a massive popular uprising in December 2018 (see Chapter 2 for details). The presence of a divided military institution in Sudan has been attributed to the coup-proofing strategy of “coup-fearing” autocrats, who were willing to undermine the state’s military effectiveness to extend their own tenure (Powell 2014).

Delivering aid amid active conflict and insecurity: Digital transfers for delivering social and humanitarian assistance in Sudan

The recent resurgence of armed conflict in Africa is increasing the need for shock-responsive humanitarian and social assistance programs. For example, the armed conflict in Sudan, which erupted in April 2023, has caused the world’s largest displacement crisis, creating a multifaceted humanitarian crisis that requires significant investments in assistance. Armed conflicts in Africa are aggravating poverty and hunger (Corral et al. 2020) and threatening important gains in poverty reduction made in the last few decades. This is causing major setbacks to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 (Corral et al. 2020; World Bank Group 2020), particularly SDG2 (Zero Hunger), SDG3 (Good Health and Well-Being), and SDG16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions).

Drivers of vulnerability and low resilience in Sudan

Sudan is currently facing one of the most severe crises in its modern history, with conflict, economic collapse, and climate disasters driving unprecedented levels of instability. Since April 2023, when the conflict erupted between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the country has experienced a complete breakdown in governance and a near-total collapse of key economic and social structures, leading to one of the world’s largest internal displacement crises and an escalating humanitarian emergency.

Shocks, coping, and household livelihood strategies in wartime

Since the eruption of conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in April 2023, Sudan has experienced one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in recent history. Beyond the tragic toll in lost and displaced lives, the conflict has profoundly disrupted livelihoods, dismantled social safety nets, and eroded the foundations of food and income security across the country. The ongoing war has affected millions, displacing communities and decimating livelihood systems across both rural and urban areas.

Toward a prosperous and secure Sudan: A way forward

As Sudan’s ongoing conflict enters its third year, the scale of human suffering and economic devastation continues to escalate. The brutal war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has devastated livelihoods, shattered infrastructure, and crippled the country’s agrifood systems and broader economy. Nearly 12 million people—one-fourth of Sudan’s population—have been displaced, including more than 4 million refugees who have fled to neighboring countries such as Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia (UNHCR 2026). The death toll is estimated to be more than 44,000 as of September 2025 (ACLED 2025), though some assessments suggest fatalities could exceed 150,000 when accounting for deaths from violence, starvation, and disease (Sampson 2025). Children have borne the brunt of this devastation: 16 million are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, and more than 17 million school-age children are currently out of school. The widespread destruction of hospitals, schools, and essential services continues to deepen the crisis, threatening to reverse decades of development and push the country toward systemic collapse.

Social protection and gender: Policy, practice, and research

Gender considerations in the design and delivery of programs are critical for social protection to achieve its primary objectives of reducing poverty and vulnerability. First, prevalence and risk factors for poverty differ by gender, as does the nature of vulnerability. Thus, to sustainably reduce poverty for all, strategies must take gender into account. Second, gender shapes the impact of social protection. Not only are the effects of programs mediated by gender norms and intra house hold dynamics, but gender differences in opportunities, constraints, and preferences determine the extent to which dif fer ent individuals can participate in and benefit from social protection. Third, entrenched societal inequities imply that women and girls are often disproportionately held back from achieving their potential. Addressing these inequities through social protection may be particularly promising to achieve longer- term poverty- reduction goals, increase productive efficiency, and promote a better, more sustainable future. Lastly, to the extent that social protection intrinsically aims to increase equity, there may be an implicit mandate to prioritize women and girls.

Agriculture after independence

Mechanizing agriculture in Bangladesh: Trends, challenges, and policy priorities

Agricultural mechanization has become a cornerstone of rural transformation in Bangladesh (Zhang et al. 2014). Since the 1980s, the country has made significant strides in mechanizing various stages of agricultural production, from land preparation to harvesting (Mottaleb, Krupnik, and Erenstein 2016; Rahman et al. 2021). As in India and other neighboring countries, both informal custom-hiring businesses and government support have enabled the widespread use of agricultural machinery in Bangladesh (Biggs and Justice 2015). Mechanization has helped address growing labor shortages, increase labor productivity and input-use efficiency, and raise farmers’ incomes (Islam 2021; Mandal 2017).

What determines a farmer’s adoption of agricultural machinery: Assessing demographic factors and asset ownership of smallholder farmers in Bangladesh

Agricultural mechanization provides a pathway to support farmers by reducing labor dependency, increasing efficiency, and improving the timeliness of agricultural operations. This enables smallholder farming communities to apply multiple cropping patterns between seasons, thereby improving their overall livelihoods (Amponsah et al. 2025; Gathala et al. 2022 Paudel et al. 2019; Chaudhary et al. 2023). In South Asian countries, especially Bangladesh, mechanization has historically been lower than in other regional nations. However, over the past 2 decades, there has been a notable increase in mechanization, as demonstrated by the substantial growth in the use of mechanical power for farming activities (Bakhtiar et al. 2025; Brown et al. 2025; Hossen et al. 2020). Understanding this trend and its implications is essential due to the complexities of mechanization adoption in Bangladesh. As the country’s population grows, expanding agricultural mechanization will be crucial to efficiently meet rising food demand.

Moving the technology frontiers in African agrifood systems: An analytical framework

The transformation of African agrifood systems stands as one of the most urgent and complex development challenges of the 21st century. With over 60 percent of the continent’s population relying on agriculture for their livelihoods, the sector holds tremendous potential to serve as a catalyst for broad-based economic growth, poverty alleviation, and food and nutrition security. This potential, however, remains largely untapped. Agricultural productivity across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continues to stagnate; despite decades of reform efforts and policy commitments, it lags significantly behind other regions of the world (Ulimwengu et al. 2025).

Moving the technology frontiers in African agrifood systems: Lessons from Latin America

Africa’s agrifood systems face a complex set of structural challenges. Low productivity, high vulnerability to climate shocks, fragmented markets, and weak integration into global value chains continue to constrain development. Yet these challenges coexist with significant opportunities. The region’s demographic profile—with more than 50 percent of the population under the age of 25 years—and a projected population growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2025 offer the potential for a demographic dividend that could help drive transformation in agri-food systems.

Advancing mechanization in African agrifood systems: Unlocking productivity and resilience

This chapter examines the role of mechanization in transforming African agrifood systems within the broader discourse on technological change, structural transformation, and sustainable development. The motivation is to address the persistent challenges of low productivity, rural poverty, labor shortages, and vulnerability to climate change that continue to constrain the agricultural sector across the continent.

Agricultural mechanization

Agricultural policy: A global view

Reframing Food Systems Debate Through Economics, Development and Environment Climate Nexus

More land, more diverse diets? Exploring production and consumption trade-offs in the eastern Indo-Gangetic plains

Persistent land inequality and gender disparities in land ownership across the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains of Bangladesh, India, and Nepal reinforces structural constraints that limit productivity and worsens nutrition outcomes for land-poor households. • Cereal and tuber yields increase with greater land access — particularly on leased-in land — while leasedout land reduces productivity, indicating that well-functioning rental markets are central to improving staple crop performance. • Production allocation patterns vary across landholding groups: land-poor households retain more for subsistence, while larger landholders commercialize a greater share, often selling nutrient-dense foods and retaining cereals and milk for home consumption. • Higher production diversity is associated with improved diet quality, but land-poor households remain at elevated diet-related health risk, indicating that diversification must be complemented by improved land access, market integration, and nutrition support.

Food environments and behavioral drivers of food choice in South Asia

To improve diets, policy interventions are needed across the four key dimensions of the food environment: accessibility, affordability, availability, and desirability. • The distinction between rural and urban food sectors is diminishing, with increased availability of packaged foods from multinational companies playing a significant role in this shift. • Establishing an effective regulatory framework for food packaging, labeling, and marketing is essential to creating healthier food environments and shaping consumer perceptions of food products and their desirability. • There is increasing support for taxing food products that are high in unhealthy fats, salt, and sugar, such as sugar-sweetened beverages, chips, biscuits, and so on. • Low consumption of fruits and vegetables, driven by both supply- and demand-side constraints, poses a significant challenge to achieving healthy diets in South Asia. • Exposure to advertising and digital food environment reach are high among high-income groups, yet knowledge about the promotion and reach of healthy diet information is limited. • The proliferation of digital food environments also poses regulatory challenges, as marketing targeted at wealthier households creates a ripple effect across lower income groups who emulate these behaviors.

The (un)affordability of healthy diets in South Asia and the implications for nutrition-sensitive food policies

Cost and affordability of healthy diet metrics are critically important new indicators of food insecurity, and reveal that balanced nutritious diets are relatively expensive and unaffordable for many South Asians. • The share of people unable to afford the global healthy diet in the 2018–2022 period varies between 5 percent in Bhutan to 21 to 57 percent in other South Asian countries. In total, more than 1 billion South Asians cannot afford the global healthy diet. • There are three major barriers to achieving convergence of actual diets to healthy diets: poverty (low incomes), the high cost of nutrient-dense foods, and weaker preferences for healthy foods compared with unhealthy foods. • “Healthy diet poverty” is still the main barrier for many South Asians, highlighting the importance of inclusive economic growth as well as the need to scale up nutrition-sensitive social protection with more appropriate coverage, size, nutritional adequacy, and comprehensiveness of transfer packages, and increased intensity of complementary nutrition education interventions. • High prices are problematic for some nutrient-dense foods, especially fruits, vegetables, and animalsource foods, but there is scope to reduce prices through diversified agricultural investments, improvements in transport, storage, and logistics infrastructure, and more nutritionally oriented trade policies. • As incomes in South Asia grow, so too does the preference problem: Even though many South Asians cannot afford a healthy diet, factors such as poor nutrition knowledge, convenience, taste, advertising, and status considerations also inhibit consumption of healthy diets. Nutrition education and behavioral change interventions are needed at scale, and throughout the life course, including “double duty” interventions that increase demand for healthy foods and decrease demand for unhealthy foods.

What are people eating in South Asia?

The limited data available on diets in South Asia show low consumption of fruits, vegetables, and animalsource foods, and high intake of snacks, sweet drinks, and fried foods. • Diet patterns vary by factors such as age, gender, and wealth; adolescents and men tend to consume more unhealthy foods, while wealthier groups consume more healthy foods without reducing intake of unhealthy foods. • Improving diets in South Asia requires multisectoral actions, including regulation of processed foods, school- and safety net-based interventions, and incentives for the food industry to provide healthier options. • Better data and targeted policies are essential, using advanced and traditional diet assessments to inform context-specific strategies that promote nutritious, affordable diets across diverse South Asian populations.

The agrifood system in South Asia: Pathways to sustainable healthy diets

South Asia is home to an estimated 2.08 billion people, making it the most densely populated region on the planet. This places immense pressure on the region’s agrifood systems to ensure that healthy and affordable food is available for all, a goal that can only be met by addressing today’s multiple interconnected challenges. Overcoming bottlenecks in agrifood systems — the networks of actors, activities, infrastructure, and policies that are involved in getting food from farms to mouths — requires data and evidence on the many elements of these complex systems. Moreover, that evidence must serve as a catalytic driver of change, which further requires strong partnerships between donors, researchers, civil society, industry, and policymakers. This report begins with a summary of the latest evidence on diets in the region, and then traces the drivers of current diets, starting from the food environment experienced by consumers, back through the diverse markets and farm production, and finally looks at the role of social protection and agrifood policy. The chapters on diets include close looks at consumption of unhealthy foods, the (un)affordability of healthy diets, and behavioral and environmental drivers of food choice. Production-related chapters consider trade-offs between production and consumption as well as how farming households adapt to climate shocks. Other chapters review evidence on the roles of men, women, and adolescents at different points in agrifood systems. The final chapters address lessons learned from social protection and on structural variations in India’s agricultural value chains. Many of the chapters draw from surveys recently conducted in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal under the CGIAR Research Initiative on Transforming Agrifood Systems (TAFSSA).

Evolving rural food environments in South Asia: The role of processed foods, traditional markets, and marketing influences

Food environments in South Asia are undergoing a rapid transformation, marked by the growing consumption of processed and ultra-processed foods — a trend largely driven by accelerated globalization and aggressive marketing strategies. • Rural food environments in South Asia remain dominated by traditional, informal food outlets. Village retail shops primarily sell packaged foods and everyday household items, while open-air multivendor markets offer diverse fresh foods, including fruits, vegetables, fish, and meat, often at more affordable prices. • Most villages have reasonable access to retail food shops, but accessing open-air markets often involves traveling longer distances, either within the village or to neighboring areas. • Rural residents in South Asia are highly exposed to the promotion and advertising of unhealthy foods, particularly through mass media campaigns. • Stronger policies and improved infrastructure are needed to foster healthier food environments. Key strategies include supporting local markets, regulating the promotion of unhealthy foods, and enhancing the presence of healthy food options in retail settings.

Consumption of foods high in fats, salt, and sugar in India: Prevalence, patterns, and policy imperatives

Calorie-dense foods high in saturated fats, salt, and sugar (HFSS) now account for nearly one-fifth of household food budgets in India, with US$62 billion spent on these foods in 2023/24. This surpasses spending on fruits, vegetables, pulses, eggs, fish, and meat in both rural and urban India. • Consumption of HFSS foods is near universal: 96 percent of households consumed packaged ultraprocessed foods, 90 percent purchased paid meals, and 70 percent consumed sugary drinks. • Many widely consumed HFSS foods are home-cooked or bought from unregulated vendors, limiting the impact of regulations designed to reduce consumption, such as taxes or labeling. • Effective policy requires integrated tools, including front-of-package labeling, nutrition education, and engagement with informal vendors to curb rising HFSS demand and mitigate health risks including obesity and diabetes.

The role of fertilizer trade in enhancing food security in Africa

A comprehensive approach to understanding the relationship between food security and trade must include the trade and accessibility of agricultural inputs. Fertilizers (organic and mineral) are crucial for delivering essential nutrients to crops, significantly boosting agricultural productivity and, in turn, enhancing food security. Increased fertilizer use can help make food more available and affordable by generating higher crop yields, lowering farmers’ production costs, and increasing supply. In addition, by achieving higher crop yields on the same land area, fertilizers can reduce the need to expand agricultural land, helping to prevent deforestation.

Social safety nets for a nutrition-sensitive food system in South Asia: Lessons from India

Social protection programs in South Asia are essential for addressing poverty, undernutrition, and food insecurity but are constrained by limited coverage and weak implementation capacity. • India’s expansive welfare architecture — spanning food, nutrition, health, and livelihoods — and its political economy (genesis, design, and effectiveness) offer critical lessons for the region. • Maternal and child-related social protection must prioritize the nutritional content of food over calorie sufficiency. • Digital tools, critical to improving welfare delivery, must avoid the risk of exclusion through decentralization and stronger bureaucratic accountability. • Social protection must be framed as part of an economic security “system” and not treated as stand-alone schemes.

Regionalism, “continentalism,” and multilateralism: Building or stumbling blocks for Africa?

Following World War II, a multilateral framework was established to structure global trade based on shared principles, including nondiscrimination through Most Favored Nation (MFN) treatment, consolidation of customs duties, the ability to implement trade remedies in cases of unfair competition, and the creation of transparent trade policies and a binding dispute settlement mechanism. This framework was established in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and later by the World Trade Organization (WTO). It facilitated the rapid expansion of international trade for several decades: according to the WTO, world trade volume today is 45 times the level recorded in 1950.

India’s agrifood system: Structural features and policy priorities

Agrifood systems contribute one-third of India’s gross domestic product (GDP). These systems include both on- and off-farm components: The off-farm sector accounts for 34 percent of agrifood systems GDP in low-income states, 44 percent in middle-income states, and 88 percent in high-income states. • Agrifood systems transformation is critical to meeting development goals, but these goals cannot all be met by prioritizing a single value chain. A more pragmatic strategy involves selecting a portfolio of complementary value chains to support multiple development priorities. • Using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis model, this chapter examines simulated impacts of productivity-led growth across 14 value chains at the national and state levels, with a focus on the state of Odisha. It measures how these impacts contribute to four development outcomes: poverty reduction, employment generation, dietary improvement, and economic growth. • Impacts from these value chains differ across India and Odisha: Nationally, wheat, rice, and pulses have the greatest impact, while in Odisha, poultry, milk, and cotton deliver stronger overall benefits. • National- and state-level development priorities often diverge, complicating resource allocation and slowing progress. Strengthening coordination between federal and state governments is critical for inclusive and sustainable agrifood system transformation.

Gender roles in South Asian food systems

Women are central to agrifood systems but face structural barriers such as limited access to resources, weak tenure and resource rights, and social norms that undervalue and restrict their contributions. • Women’s time in reproductive and care work is unrecognized, limits their participation in productive or market-oriented work, and reinforces gender disparities in time, income, and well-being. • Gender norms and social hierarchies shape women’s roles and limit empowerment across the food system, from agriculture to markets to the distribution of tasks and food within households, affecting diet and nutrition outcomes. • Policy must go beyond recognizing women’s work to leveling access to resources, ensuring fair pay and safe conditions, and tackling restrictive norms through gender-transformative approaches. • Empowering women in food systems requires intersectional, data-driven action that addresses caste, class, mobility, and intrahousehold dynamics to ensure equitable food, livelihood, and health outcomes. • Areas for future research include: engaging men, particularly in sharing care work; reducing labor burdens; and changing attitudes of the young through in-school curricula.

The rice value chain in Africa

Rice is both a strategic commodity and a staple food in most African countries. It is the second most important source of dietary energy in the region, after maize, providing 9 percent of human calorie intake (van Oort 2023). In many countries, particularly in West Africa, per capita consumption exceeds 100 kg/year (FAO 2024), putting Africa second only to Asia. Due to the combined effects of population growth, changing diets, urbanization, and income growth in Africa, rice demand is now growing at 6 percent annually, faster than any other staple food (AfricaRice, n.d.), and projected to increase significantly in the next decade. By 2034, Africa is likely to be the largest importing region globally, despite increasing intraregional trade (FAO 2025).

Intra-African agricultural trade and implications for domestic food security

The 21st century ushered in a renewed sense of optimism regarding Africa’s economic prospects. With a rapidly growing population, a burgeoning consumer market, and vast agricultural potential, the continent stands at a pivotal juncture. Central to this narrative of transformation is the agenda for regional integration, championed by the African Union’s landmark African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). While the AfCFTA does not have a standalone protocol dedicated solely to agriculture or food security, these sectors are encompassed within the Protocol on Trade in Goods, which addresses tariff concessions, nontariff barriers, and rules of origin applicable to agricultural products. Officially operationalized in 2021, the AfCFTA aims to create a single market for goods and services, facilitating the free movement of businesspersons and investments, and ultimately paving the way for a continental customs union.1 Its primary objective is to significantly boost intra-African trade, which has historically languished at dismally low levels. Compared to Europe and North America, where intraregional trade represents a significant share of overall commerce, Africa’s internal level of trade remains markedly lower (UNCTAD 2021). This discrepancy is not merely a trade statistic; it reflects deep-seated structural issues with profound implications for one of the continent’s most pressing challenges: food security.

Africa in global agricultural trade and food security: Recent trends

Africa’s agricultural trade was largely shaped by the colonial division of the continent in the 19th century, when the agriculture of several African regions was transformed into monocrop, export-oriented sectors that catered to the growing European demand for food, luxury products such as chocolate, and manufacturing inputs such as rubber and cotton (Bjornlund et al. 2020; Akyeampong 2017). This shift occurred at the expense of the domestic agricultural diversity and intra-African trade complementarity that had long ensured food security, and continued even after African countries gained their independence. Several African governments pursued agricultural policies similar to those of colonial times and focused on the export of a few crops to generate sufficient revenue to fund their industrialization and development plans. Between 1966 and 1973, for instance, nearly one-half of sub-Saharan African governments depended on the export of a single commodity to secure 50 percent of their export revenues (Bjornlund et al. 2020). This concentration had two negative repercussions on food security: (1) increased vulnerability to fluctuations in global commodity prices; and (2) decreased local and traditional food production, which threatened the availability of food for the growing African population.

Farming households’ adaptation to climatic shocks in South Asia: A food systems perspective

Climate shocks in South Asia often trigger cascading disruptions across the agrifood system — from production to markets to household consumption — highlighting the interconnected nature of system vulnerabilities. • Household adaptation responses to shocks are not confined to farming practices; they span multiple system components, including livelihoods, consumption, credit, and risk management. • Smallholders and resource-poor households tend to rely on short-term livelihood, risk, and consumption management coping mechanisms, while wealthier households can adopt loss-reducing investments and strategies. This difference deepens inequalities. • National adaptation planning continues to have a sectoral focus, with a primary focus on building resilient production systems and minimal focus on other aspects of agrifood systems. • Social safety net policies exist at scale across the region, offering complementary support to adaptation efforts for the poorest, but these policies are not yet strategically aligned or strengthened with national adaptation planning.

Adolescents in South Asian agrifood systems: Roles and aspirations

Adolescents play multiple roles in agrifood systems, from production to sale, acquisition, preparation, and consumption of food. • Though surveys increasingly include adolescents, data gaps exist on their diets, food choice behaviors, and aspirations for the future, all of which have implications for agrifood systems. • Fewer than 1 in 10 adolescents wish to engage in farming in the future, according to findings of a 2023 survey of 4,000 adolescents in rural Bangladesh, India, and Nepal. • The same survey found that adolescent males and females participated equally in agricultural tasks, but that food and domestic tasks were primarily done by adolescent females. • Recent data show that adolescents have access to and frequently consume unhealthy foods, and are largely missed by school meal programs, which typically only cover children. • The Eat Well, Live Well social media campaign and follow-on activities in Bangladesh offer an example of innovative approaches to encourage adolescents to make better food choices.

Overview – Agrifood systems transformation in South Asia: An agenda for impact and learning at scale

South Asia is undergoing a profound transformation in both regional dietary patterns and agrifood production systems. Driven by rapid urbanization, rising incomes, changing lifestyles, and evolving food environments and market systems, the region faces a dual challenge: improving diets while ensuring sustainable and equitable food production. Recent surveys and research by CGIAR and partners across several South Asian countries highlight the urgency of action to address poor diet quality, rising consumption of unhealthy foods, and the limitations of current agricultural systems.

Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2025

The 2025 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) investigates critical topics related to Africa’s trade in agricultural products. As in previous editions of the report, we developed a database that corrects discrepancies in official trade flow values, as reported by importing and exporting countries; this database serves as the basis for analyzing Africa’s international, domestic, and regional trade. Following the 2024 report’s examination of the nexus between climate change and the environment, this year’s report focuses on food security and its linkage with global and intra-African trade.

Adapting to a changing climate: Strategies for productive and resilient agrifood systems

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) stand at a pivotal juncture for advancing the sustainability and resilience of the region’s agrifood systems. As both a net agricultural exporter and a global biodiversity hotspot, the region faces the challenge of enhancing productivity while safeguarding long-term environmental and social resilience. This chapter offers a forward-looking assessment of how climate variability may affect agricultural productivity and land use through 2050, drawing on climate-adjusted projections to explore potential shifts in yields and crop distribution under mounting climate pressures. Results indicate that climate change could alter comparative advantages, depress yields in certain areas, and lead to significant reconfigurations of cultivation patterns. Nevertheless, substantial opportunities lie in strategic investments in climate-smart practices, resilient infrastructure, and inclusive policies. Outcomes will vary widely across countries and producer types, underscoring the need for tailored, context-specific strategies. Ultimately, LAC’s capacity to anticipate and adapt—through foresight, robust data, and scenario planning—will determine the productivity, sustainability, and resilience of its agrifood systems, and enable the region to remain a central actor in global food systems despite a changing climate.

Reassessing agricultural growth: Introducing a sustainable productivity index for Latin America and the Caribbean

This chapter introduces a sustainable productivity index (SPI) to evaluate agricultural growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) between 1995 and 2021, integrating economic output with environmental costs. While LAC doubled its agricultural output and led global productivity gains during this period, this progress came with significant environmental degradation, including a 50% rise in pollution and pressures on natural resources, such as water stress, soil erosion, and deforestation. The SPI adjusts conventional total factor productivity (TFP) by penalizing undesirable outputs like greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient runoff, offering a more accurate picture of sustainable growth. Findings reveal that while productivity increased by 60%, sustainability-adjusted productivity rose by only 13%, with sharp disparities across subregions. The Southern Cone achieved the highest output and productivity growth but also incurred the steepest environmental costs. Central America and the Andean region recorded moderate gains with varying environmental impacts, while the Caribbean fell behind. The study underscores that agricultural modernization in LAC has often been capital-intensive and export-driven, marginalizing smallholders and degrading ecosystems. The results call for a policy shift toward integrated, context-sensitive strategies that balance productivity with environmental stewardship. Technological innovations—such as precision fertilization and biological alternatives—combined with policy incentives like payments for ecosystem services and environmental taxes, institutional reforms to strengthen interministerial coordination, and public investment in dual-purpose R+D+i systems, are essential to support sustainable and resilient agricultural systems across the region.

Uncovering evidence gaps in agricultural productivity research: A systemic mapping

This chapter presents findings from a systematic mapping of agricultural productivity interventions across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to uncover critical evidence gaps that obstruct effective policy design. This initiative draws on methods applied in LAC through Avanzar2030: Innovating for Sustainable Agrifood Systems, led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA), and the Juno Evidence Alliance with support from other international organizations. The ongoing Avanzar2030 initiative aims to identify evidence-backed policies for sustainable food systems transformation in LAC using evidence synthesis methods. By identifying key knowledge gaps, the analysis provides a foundation for shaping future research and guiding policy decisions to better support sustainable productivity growth in the region. The initial search identified 8,193 potentially relevant studies from academic databases based on title and abstract information. From these, a representative sample of 805 studies was examined at full text by a team of trained experts, as well as a representative sample of studies from grey literature, resulting in 82 studies that met all inclusion criteria. This random sample of 82 studies served as the primary evidence base that was assessed to identify knowledge gaps. This systematic mapping exercise revealed the following insights: (i) the literature shows pronounced geographic disparities, with countries in Central America and the Caribbean notably underrepresented; (ii) the evidence is concentrated on cash crops and export-oriented products, while staple crops and diversified farming systems are relatively unexplored; (iii) evidence gaps persist around both emerging intervention types and longstanding mechanisms that have been widely implemented in LAC for decades; (iv) methodologically, rigorous impact evaluations that apply counterfactual analysis are scarce; (v) the absence of heterogeneity analyses and studies examining the differential impacts of interventions on diverse groups (women farmers, Indigenous producers, and afro-descendant farmers) was one of the most pronounced gaps in the literature base; and (vi) although growing attention has been given to climate-related dimensions of agricultural interventions, a more systematic and in-depth approach is needed to assess long-term sustainability and resilience outcomes.

From fragmented gains to systemic transformation

Governance and policies for agrifood systems transformation in Africa

Knowledge support for agrifood system transformation in Africa

Total factor productivity growth in Indian agriculture and regional convergence

What do we know about the future of animal-source foods and food systems?

Urbanization and income growth lead to more diverse diets and increased consumption of animal-source foods (ASF) in lower-income countries, while in some higher-income countries, consumer preferences may slowly be shifting away from ASF. A significant shift in diets is projected for lower-income countries, with the demand for ASF expected to increase by 20 percent in absolute kcal/person/day terms under conditions of baseline socioeconomic trends to 2050. Projected shifts in ASF consumption will disrupt local-to-global food production and distribution, but most attention has focused on its implications for nutrition and health, climate, and the environment, with less attention to socioeconomic and livelihood impacts. Strategies proposed for addressing the complex and multidimensional future impacts of changes in ASF demand, production, and distribution need further exploration.

What do we know about the future of urbanization in relation to food systems?

The world is urbanizing rapidly. The global urban population increased from 2.87 billion in 2000 to 4.38 billion in 2020, a 53 percent rise, and is projected to reach 6.57 billion by 2050, representing 68 percent of the world’s population (World Bank 2024a). Urbanization is often associated with structural economic transformation, marked by a growing share of nonagriculture sectors (that is, industry and services) in gross domestic product (GDP) and employment, as well as increased productivity and incomes — ideally driven by high-productivity industries. Rapid urbanization typically leads to significant growth in market volumes (Reardon and Timmer 2014; Minten et al. 2020). However, this growth can result in declining diet quality due to reduced availability of fruits and vegetables. Additionally, improving sanitation and food safety becomes a major challenge. Excessively rapid urbanization can lead to the development of urban slums and increased poverty, and it often coincides with underinvestment in agriculture and the rural economy, exacerbating rural poverty. More research is needed, using detailed spatial data to link biophysical and socioeconomic outcomes, to better understand the ongoing urbanization-driven transformation of food systems.

What do we know about the future of food systems in Central and West Asia and North Africa?

The subregions of Central and West Asia and North Africa (CWANA) will continue to import around 50 percent of domestic food requirements by 2050. Natural resources will continue to degrade in the CWANA region until 2050 and beyond. Agrifood systems transformation in CWANA can be facilitated by fast-tracking technology transfer approaches, leading to sustainable productivity growth. Foresight analyses are needed to generate scenarios of agrifood system transformation in CWANA, with a focus on reducing trade and importation risks related to international market volatility.

What do we know about the future of rice in relation to food systems?

Global rice production remained more stable than maize and wheat production in recent years, while rice consumption continues to increase, albeit at a slower pace. Rice production and consumption are projected to increase worldwide, with Asia to continue as the world’s leading source of rice through 2050. Southeast Asia’s rice surplus will increase by 2040 by closing the exploitable yield gap by one-half. The global rice sector will experience an increasing economic surplus with faster productivity growth and will contribute to a decline in the number of undernourished children and people at risk of hunger. Demographic changes and rice trade policy reforms will be key drivers of rice demand and prices in different countries.

What do we know about the future of diets and nutrition?

Diets continue to evolve and nutrition challenges are changing as diets shift from traditional to more modern ones that are higher in animal-source foods, refined grains, and processed and ultra-processed foods; high in saturated fats, sugar, and salt; and low in fiber. Important progress, though uneven, has been made over several decades in improving diets and nutrition, but these trends have reversed or slowed since 2010. Undernutrition has decreased over time, while micronutrient deficiencies have not. Overweight and obesity are rapidly rising in all low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and remain high in high-income countries. Multiple burdens of malnutrition coexist within countries, regions, communities, households, and individuals. Nutrition literature increasingly highlights the multiple burdens of malnutrition but rarely looks explicitly at future trajectories for nutritional indicators. Simulation studies explore alternative futures explicitly and give a good indication regarding dietary trends but are limited with respect to nutritional outcome trends. A critical need and opportunity exist for more work that combines nutrition with foresight modeling, particularly with a focus on LMICs.

What do we know about the future of land in relation to food systems?

The total amount of cropland across the globe is likely to expand over the next three decades due to rising demand for food along with feed for livestock. Pasture will likely be stable or contract as livestock production continues to shift away from grazing and toward intensive use of feed and transported fodder. Climate change will increase the overall challenge and drive additional cropland expansion by generally reducing potential yields, although some crops and locations will benefit (typically higher latitudes and, to a lesser extent, higher elevations). Natural land will be displaced by cropland in some areas. In particular, forests in the tropics are at greater risk of conversion than in other regions. Beyond cropland incursion, the types, mixes, and footprints of natural vegetation may be affected by climate change.

What do we know about the future of food systems in South Asia?

Micronutrient availability in South Asia is projected to increase by 46 percent by 2050, reflecting a significant transition from traditional cereal-based diets to diverse, nutrient-rich foods, though affordability limits access for low-income groups. The shift from traditional diets to processed foods has led to an increase in obesity and diet-related noncommunicable diseases. Rising demand for animal-source foods also puts pressure on local resources and increases reliance on imports. Agriculture in South Asia relies heavily on freshwater, primarily groundwater, which is critically overused. Additionally, soil degradation and the burning of crop residues contribute to air pollution and pose risks to the sustainability and productivity of the region’s agricultural land. Climate change is expected to significantly affect crop yields, particularly for staples such as rice, wheat, and maize, with projected reductions by 2050. This climate impact will exacerbate food insecurity in the region, especially as food demand continues to grow. Current foresight studies often overlook the impacts of unexpected external shocks, such as pandemics and the Russia-Ukraine war, on agriculture and food systems. Addressing these research gaps and focusing on context-specific technological solutions, climate-smart practices, and self-sufficiency could enhance resilience and sustainability across South Asia’s agrifood sector.

What do we know about the future of the agrifood system in South Africa?

South Africa’s primary agriculture sector witnessed profound productivity growth in recent decades, yet structural transformation is stalling due to a combination of sluggish nonfarm growth and persistent structural challenges that inhibit wider societal progress. Looking ahead, the agrifood system is well placed to increase the supply of goods at competitive prices but requires consistency in policymaking and an investment-friendly environment, as well as stronger domestic demand for products. Given the complexity and interconnectedness of the country’s agrifood system, future foresight research should focus on better understanding cross-sector productivity gains and how the entire system can be reoriented to support greater agricultural transformation.

What do we know about the future of food systems in India?

Rapid growth in the livestock and fisheries subsectors, driven by increasing demand, has advanced the frontiers of agricultural growth in India. Irrigation plays the dual role of enhancing both productivity and resilience in agriculture, but increasing reliance on groundwater for irrigation and the consequent decline in groundwater levels impede the sustainable transformation of India’s agrifood production systems. Although climate change is a significant challenge to the sustainability of agriculture, implementation of climate-smart interventions can significantly improve agricultural productivity and resilience. Changing dietary patterns reinforce the need to reshape agricultural policies to promote diversification of agriculture in favor of nutrient-dense foods, including animal-source foods and fruits and vegetables. Diversification may contribute to the enhanced sustainability of natural resources, mitigate risk, and augment farm income, thereby addressing nutrition insecurity and reducing farm poverty. Enhancing self-sufficiency in specific commodities, such as edible oils and pulses, requires technological advancements and safeguards against low-cost imports.

What do we know about the future of energy and food systems?

The global energy transition currently in process involves increases in variable renewable energy generation and ongoing electrification of transport and industrial processes, leading to the possibility of absolute declines in the use of coal and petroleum before 2030. This transition creates both opportunities and risks for agrifood systems. Trade will be an important impact channel for net exporters and net importers of fossil fuels, with impacts spilling into the agrifood sector. Improvements in energy technology, particularly solar generation, have broad applications with potentially large implications for agrifood systems.

What do we know about the future of water in food systems?

Demand is growing while supply is uncertain: Globally, the demand for water in agriculture and food systems is growing, alongside competing needs in other sectors. Freshwater consumption is projected to increase by 17 percent between 2020 and 2050, most of it for irrigation, and almost all of it in low- and middle-income countries. At the same time, water availability is becoming increasingly uncertain due to climate extremes, long-term climate change, pollution, and land use changes such as deforestation and wetland degradation. The rising variability and scarcity contribute to competition among different water users. The water supply-demand gap must be addressed: As the gap between water supply and demand increases, both tested and new technologies, policies, and institutions are needed to improve water productivity and efficiency. At the same time, more research is needed to identify solutions that mitigate the negative impacts of water shortages, pollution, and poor water management on food systems as well as to curb the adverse impacts arising from inefficient and wasteful food systems on water resources and the environment. Agriculture and food systems drive many of the pressures on freshwater ecosystems. According to the IUCN Red List, 25 percent of freshwater species are threatened with extinction (IUCN 2024). This loss of biodiversity threatens not only the species themselves but also the vital services they and their ecosystems provide to humanity. With water a connector across sectors, new approaches to management are critical: With rising water scarcity, decisions in areas such as climate, nutrition, energy, and trade policy will increasingly shape the future of water in food systems. To improve water management in food systems, a more integrated, forward-looking approach is needed that considers the broader implications of policies and investments across multiple sectors. In addition, strengthening governance and institutions and empowering farmers, as key stewards of water resources, are essential for sustainable outcomes.

What do we know about the impacts of the next El Niño on agrifood systems?

As of June 2023, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that El Niño conditions were present and consensus existed among climate prediction centers that El Niño would likely persist from November 2023 to February 2024. El Niño is typically associated with seasonal climate anomalies and extreme weather events throughout the developing world, especially across sub-Saharan Africa, but the economic impacts caused by these events are difficult to disentangle from those of other climate shocks, natural disasters, and economic cycles. Additionally, the strength and consistency of El Niño’s agroclimatic impacts vary by region. El Niño’s unique slow onset, periodic pattern, and lead times of prediction (from a few months to a year) make it possible to design anticipatory policies and prepare emergency responses in advance. Policymakers should closely monitor the evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases and the potential impacts of El Niño and be prepared to coordinate policy responses quickly as the situation unfolds. As global warming continues and climate extremes occur more frequently, actions to foster climate-resilient agrifood systems should be broadly prioritized.

What do we know about the future of gender equality in relation to food systems?

Foresight research has yet to fully explore gender equality as an outcome and a driver of food systems transformation. Foresight analysis can assess which food systems investments and interventions are most effective at reducing gender inequalities and increasing women’s empowerment. Addressing structural inequalities, promoting inclusivity in decision-making, and challenging patriarchal norms can enhance gender equality, social inclusion, and women’s empowerment in food systems transformation. Neglecting gender barriers when designing and disseminating food systems innovations may exacerbate gender inequalities and limit women’s empowerment. Gender equality, women’s empowerment, and social inclusion also drive food systems transformation, leading to improved welfare outcomes for all. Foresight research should examine how closing gender gaps in livelihood opportunities, agricultural productivity, and resilience capacities can impact other food systems outcomes, such as poverty reduction, food security, and nutrition. While data on gender inequalities in food systems and women’s empowerment have increased over the last 10 years, more sex-disaggregated data and impact evaluation studies are needed for rigorous foresight research on gender equality in agrifood systems.

What do we know about the future of food demand, production, and food security based on IMPACT model projections?

Global food demand is projected to increase as incomes rise, and diets will continue shifting toward more nutrient-dense foods, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). IMPACT model projections indicate that global production for all agricultural commodities will increase by over 40 percent between 2020 and 2050, driven by innovation and productivity growth, but resource constraints and climate change pose challenges. As with demand, production is projected to grow fastest in LMICs. In the coming decades, food demand is projected to outpace production in most LMIC regions. As a result, most of these regions, with the exception of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), are expected to increase their reliance on imports. Increases in production and trade are expected to enhance food availability, but most LMIC regions are not on track to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2.1 on ending hunger by 2030. Strengthening model integration and incorporating socioeconomic disaggregation will enhance IMPACT’s ability to provide more comprehensive insights for decision-making to address these challenges.

What do we know about the future of aquatic foods in global agrifood systems?

Demand for aquatic foods has increased rapidly due to population growth, rising incomes, and enhanced appreciation for the health benefits of fish. The rapid growth of aquaculture in the past two decades has been the key contributor to meeting the increasing demand for aquatic foods. Aquatic foods are nutrient-rich, generate low emissions and impacts on land and water, and contribute to the human health, well-being, and livelihoods of rural communities. The latest fish foresight studies provide multifaceted insights into future scenarios of technological progress, climate change, population growth, diet transformation, urbanization, investments, and policy shifts in the fish sector and the potential for fish to provide nutrition-sensitive interventions to combat food insecurity and malnutrition at the global, regional, and national level. Further foresight studies are needed to inform policymaking and develop a deeper understanding of the role aquatic foods can play in addressing the nutritional, social, and environmental food systems challenges while navigating the trade-offs of pursuing these different goals.

What do we know about the future of the agrifood system in Indonesia?

Productivity growth has played a dominant role in driving the growth of Indonesia’s agricultural production in recent decades, but it has been accompanied by the increasing role of land expansion. Indonesia is projected to achieve high-income status by 2045 if the country can maintain a 6–7 percent annual economic growth rate. To achieve high income and economic growth, the country needs to boost investment activities by increasing national saving, foreign direct investment (FDI), and investment efficiency. Future foresight research should include environmental impacts such as emissions and land use change and explore long-term changes in dietary patterns and poverty alleviation.

What do we know about the future of agrifood systems in Southeast Asia?

The food systems of Southeast Asia (SEA) are projected to be under increasing pressure due to multiple drivers, including population growth, urbanization, biodiversity loss, and the uncertainties stemming from climate change. Rice and fish will remain staple foods and the backbone of diets in the region’s rural and urban areas. In 2019, SEA produced 72 percent of the world’s aquatic food products and 25 percent of the world’s rice. Rice accounts for 50 percent of calorie intake for its population, while fish contributes more than 50 percent of per capita average animal protein intake. These shares are expected to rise over the next several decades due to population growth. Production and consumption of staple foods are expected to fall due to the impacts of climate change, potentially jeopardizing food and nutrition security in the region and beyond. The projected magnitude of climate change impacts on rice production varies greatly, depending on the models used. Previous regional foresight studies have explored the implications of climate change on food production in SEA, but other driving forces and outcomes of food systems transformation have received less attention.

What do we know about the future of food trade?

Trade in agriculture and food products increased dramatically over the past 20 years, driven by population and income growth that resulted in consumption exceeding production in many countries. Productivity growth grew as well, allowing countries with surplus production to meet global import demand. Reforms in the global trading system have reduced import barriers, also encouraging trade. As a result, imports as a percentage of total consumption have increased steadily (particularly in low-income countries) and forecasts for the near term (next 10 years) as well as longer-term projections (to 2050) suggest that these trends will continue. Climate change will pose continued challenges as production shifts due to increased temperatures and more variable rainfall. Trade will be necessary to help mitigate the impacts of these changes, so the global trading system must remain open and free of harmful distortions.

What do we know about the future of wheat?

Wheat has been and will remain a major component of diets globally. It accounts for an average of 18 percent of total energy intake and 19 percent of total protein intake globally. It is the primary staple food for 1.5 billion resource-constrained people in the Global South. Wheat represents 29 percent of the global cereals area and 14 percent of the global cropland area. It is an important crop in most agricultural areas of the world except the humid tropics and is less prominent in sub-Saharan Africa. Compared to rice and maize, it is more drought- and cold-tolerant. Wheat will continue to be an important source of protein in 2050, even under changing diets. In meat-based diets, wheat is often part of animal feed. In plant-based diets, wheat is a source of protein. Climate change offers both challenges and opportunities for wheat. Areas previously unsuitable for wheat production may have a comparative advantage under climate change. Similarly, some traditional wheat-growing areas may become less suitable for wheat production under climate change, especially due to heat stress. While Jägermeyr et al. (2021) indicate it can be beneficial for many existing wheat-growing areas, the impacts, for example, of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, warmer night temperatures, and other weather anomalies are likely to counteract some of the benefits. Some of the poorer regions of the world are historically considered to be wheat-deficit areas and will increasingly depend on imports. This is a key factor in Africa, where there is less wheat production and wheat consumption is increasing with rising incomes.

What do we know about the future of agriculture systems in China?

Addressing the dual challenge of limited resources and a large population, China must prioritize sustainable agricultural practices to ensure food security and environmental sustainability. The shift toward a more nutritionally balanced diet by 2050 will not only improve public health but also significantly alter the demand patterns for various food commodities, increasing the need for strategic adjustments in agricultural production. Technological innovation in agriculture presents a critical solution to overcoming constraints of land and water, highlighting the importance of continued investment in research and development for sustainable growth. Future agricultural transformations will likely involve a move away from traditional small-scale farming toward more efficient and cooperative agricultural models, driven by rural demographic changes and the growth of socialized service organizations.

What do we know about the future of food systems in Latin America and the Caribbean?

Heterogeneity and inequality: Latin America and the Caribbean’s (LAC) agrifood systems are marked by significant disparities across the region and within countries in production, trade, and access to food, with inequality a central challenge. These disparities not only undermine food security but also hinder the region’s ability to develop sustainable and resilient food systems. Sustainability and climate resilience: The future of LAC’s agrifood systems will be shaped by the region’s ability to balance agricultural growth with environmental sustainability and the conservation of the stock of natural resources in the long run. Role of policies: Closing the gap between the rich and poor, between large and small producers, and between urban and rural populations requires targeted action, including investing in rural infrastructure, facilitating access to appropriate technologies, and encouraging regional cooperation. Specialization and governance: The region’s continued specialization in agricultural exports presents both opportunities and challenges. Strengthening food security governance frameworks and promoting inclusive policies will be essential to ensure that the benefits of agricultural growth are shared more equitably and that agrifood systems are resilient in the face of climate change and other global challenges. Foresight research can help address these challenges, focusing on the consequences of structural transformation, the trade-offs between agricultural productivity and sustainable management of LAC, the long-term effects of climate change, and how disruptors and drivers of agrifood systems transformation can affect the different LAC regions and countries.

What do we know about the future of poverty in relation to food systems?

Global poverty declined rapidly over the past 25 years, from around 30 percent to 8.5 percent today, but a series of global crises caused the pace of poverty reduction to slow down from 2020 onward. Some regions have done well; for instance, the East Asia and Pacific region has now effectively eliminated extreme poverty, a Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), while extreme poverty in South Asia is expected to be eradicated by 2030. But with almost no further reduction in the extreme poverty rate in sub-Saharan Africa until 2030, the number of poor people in this region will expand by 10 percent to reach 500 million. This means that by 2030, around 80 percent of the global population of poor people will live in sub-Saharan Africa. Poverty and food systems are closely intertwined. Both theory and evidence support the notion that investments in the food system that reduce food prices or create jobs in the food system will be highly effective at reducing poverty, and likely more so than investments outside of the food system, especially during the earlier stages of a country’s development. With respect to investments within the food system, since the majority of the world’s extreme poor are engaged in farming, investments in the on-farm part of the food system are likewise more effective at reducing extreme poverty than off-farm investments, such as in processing, distribution, and food services. However, rural-urban migration and structural shifts in employment into off-farm jobs, combined with growing demand for processed foods from retail or food service outlets, will gradually increase the poverty-reducing impacts of off-farm investments. Foresight analysis can help policymakers anticipate employment and dietary shifts and allocate their food system investments in a way that would maximize their impact on extreme poverty. Policies and investments designed to facilitate food systems transformation may be associated with trade-offs across development outcomes. For instance, while investments in staple crop productivity may be most effective at reducing poverty and calorie availability, they may not contribute to improving dietary quality or health outcomes, which are also important SDGs. Likewise, regulations that encourage the adoption of environmentally conscious food production processes, also central to several of the SDGs, may raise the cost of food, with negative consequences for poverty. At the same time, inaction now to facilitate a transition toward more sustainable food systems will contribute to conflicts, disasters, physical displacement, and adverse health and economic outcomes in the future, the burden of which will fall disproportionately on future generations of poor people. Foresight analysis can help policymakers understand these trade-offs as they consider alternative investment choices and measures to protect vulnerable populations from any adverse impacts.

What do we know about the future of food systems innovation?

Innovations have been and will continue to be critical drivers of food systems and societal change. Predicting “game-changing” technology ahead of time is not possible, and silver bullets do not exist. Novel innovations can alleviate some challenges, but unintended consequences always arise. Foresight research can help to identify undesirable outcomes early on and align investments and incentives with social and environmental objectives.

What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa?

Food demand in East and southern Africa (ESA) is expected to be three to nine times higher by 2050 (relative to 2010), depending on the emerging economic and demographic trends. To meet demand, agrifood systems (AFS) in the region must expand and diversify. Consumption demand for meats and fruits and vegetables will more than triple by 2050, creating economic opportunities but also inclusivity challenges. Transformations in AFS must increase the sector’s resilience to supply-side shocks that threaten food security and nutrition. Favorable policies and investments that are country-specific, inclusive, and sustainable will be powerful tools to shape and influence AFS’s transition in the region.

What are food systems and what can we know about their future?

Food systems are made up of the people, resources, and activities involved in the production, processing, distribution, and consumption of food. We cannot know the future of food systems with certainty, but we can make informed projections about alternative possible futures and ways to achieve (or avoid) them. This book provides a mosaic of perspectives from a diverse group of experts on the state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems and how they are interlinked. Pressure on land and water resources is projected to increase, extreme events will become more frequent, and healthy diets will remain out of reach for many, but innovation and improved policies and investments can help address these challenges. Synergies and trade-offs between these different challenges and goals mean that they need to be understood and addressed as integrated parts of dynamic food systems.

What do we know about the future of roots, tubers, and bananas in relation to food systems?

Root, tuber, and banana (RT&B) crops are vital for food and nutrition security, providing quick calories, buffering against food crises, and offering opportunities for gender empowerment, particularly in seed systems. Their resilience to adverse weather and their sustainable integration into diverse farming systems enhance productivity while minimizing environmental impact. Production and consumption of fresh and processed RT&B crops are projected to increase by 17 percent and 9 percent, respectively, by 2050 in developing countries. Total RT&B production could reach almost 1.4 billion tons, with sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) emerging as the world’s leading supplier of RT&B crops. RT&Bs are mostly nontraded crops, although opportunities exist in some areas, such as intraregional exports of bananas from some SSA countries and cross-border trade of fresh potatoes between countries in Africa and Asia. Improving foresight research on biotic and abiotic stresses, trade, labor, and the efficiency of processing capacity and reducing postharvest losses in RT&B crops could contribute to stabilizing their supply in the developing world, lowering import reliance, and creating local economic opportunities.

What do we know about the future of maize value chains in a changing climate and agrifood system?

Population growth, changing diets, and a rapidly growing feed sector are contributing to a sharp increase in global maize demand, which is expected to double by 2050 relative to 2010. Average global maize yield is projected to decrease by 11 percent under a global warming scenario of 2°C (2060–2084) relative to the 1986–2005 period (in the absence of technological change, adaptation, or market adjustments). The feed demand for maize is expected to grow faster in the coming few decades, largely driven by rapid economic growth and diet shifts in highly populated regions in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. Meeting the growing demand for maize will require dramatic increases in production, marketing, use, and resilience of maize-based farming systems. While the supply of maize over the coming decades will be constrained by climate change and limited availability of land and water, technological and policy innovations will bring new opportunities. The combined challenges of increasing food demand, persistent poverty and malnutrition, natural resource depletion, and climate change will require the world to double the productivity and boost the sustainability and resilience of maize-based farming systems within planetary boundaries.

What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems?

Crop pests and diseases (P&D) can cause substantial yield losses and pose a threat to global food security. Losses at a regional level can even exceed 40 percent for crops like maize and rice. Most studies show that a warmer climate creates a conducive, albeit spatially variable, environment for P&D spread. However, existing foresight research is largely biophysical in nature and focuses on individual pathosystems, examined mostly at the national level. As such, projections of the magnitude of economic impacts of changing patterns of P&D are missing. Global assessment of model-based historical and future P&D impacts on food systems remains constrained by the small number of available models that can estimate yield losses under contrasting climate and agroecological conditions. Efforts are needed to improve data accessibility, model versatility, and simulation platforms and to establish international observation and modeling networks. Artificial intelligence (AI) and related methods can assist in the development of robust and adaptable models to capture the impacts of P&D on food systems.

What do we know about the future of measuring food systems?

Many food systems-related databases, tools, and dashboards are available, but to ensure these tools are helpful for decision-makers, they must be harmonized and their sophistication increased to capture trade-offs and synergies. The Food Systems Countdown Initiative holds great potential to address this need, but its success will depend on several factors, such as filling national and subnational data gaps, ensuring countries formalize their commitments, translating global ambitions into national contexts, and integrating sectoral policies and programs. A new generation of food systems indicators must capture multifaceted interactions, trade-offs, and synergies by integrating observations, models, and complex system analyses with clear metadata for appropriate use.

What do we know about the future of pulses in global and regional agrifood systems?

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) account for about 55 percent of global pulse production. Nearly one-half (48 percent) of global production occurs in 16 low- and lower-middle income countries in the drylands of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The gap between pulse demand and supply is increasing in South Asia. Most recent foresight studies on pulses are focused on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Future foresight studies on specific pulse crops should target regions where these pulses are important in human diets. Pulse trade should be promoted between countries that encompass the drylands of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

What do we know about the future of food systems in West and Central Africa?

Food systems in West and Central Africa (WCA) are challenged by slow growth in productivity and incomes and by climate change. Urbanization and related trends are creating new opportunities for the region’s agricultural value chains to meet nutrition and employment needs, including those of women and young people. Climate change poses a significant threat to future agricultural production in the region, and dependence on food imports is mostly projected to increase. Foresight studies that account for the future can help guide the transformation of food, land, and water systems in WCA in response to climate change. However, new analyses are needed to address the multidimensional nature of the region’s challenges.

What do we know about the future of agrobiodiversity in relation to food systems?

Agrobiodiversity — the diversity of living organisms that underpin agricultural systems — provides numerous critical benefits, from on-farm crop diversity and genetic resources that allow farmers to adapt crops to changing environments to the provision of ecosystem services such as pollination, disease and pest resistance, soil health, and water conservation. These benefits in turn support resilient livelihoods, food security, and diversified, nutritious diets. A number of ex ante theoretical and practical approaches have been used to show how greater agricultural biodiversity is connected to higher production and lower risk exposure, and to assess the role that agrobiodiversity plays in supporting agricultural systems resilience. But little has been done to integrate the measurement of agrobiodiversity into foresight modeling, or to apply foresight tools and methods to study long-term effects of agrobiodiversity on socioeconomic or environmental outcomes. The recent development of the Agrobiodiversity Index and advances in integrated modeling systems provide opportunities for improved scenario analysis focused on agrobiodiversity and informed by agroecology and agricultural economics theory.

What do we know about the future of the environment and biodiversity in relation to food systems?

The environment’s proper functioning is essential for a better life on Earth, including maintaining, enhancing, and restoring biodiversity and ecosystem services. While the environment is driven by external factors and shocks as well as interventions within the global food system, it simultaneously drives the overall health and stability of the planet. This relationship involves complex interactions and tipping points, which foresight research needs to capture in analyzing alternative future pathways for food system transformation. A sustainable and resilient environment requires holistic approaches, strategies, and policies to address environmental stresses and promote conservation, regeneration, and coexistence with nature. These include practices that respect ecological boundaries, reduce resource consumption and conflict, foster biodiversity, and enhance ecosystem recovery and adaptability. Foresight research is essential to help decision-makers understand synergies and trade-offs between long-term public goods benefits and short-term private costs from resource use and management. Addressing food systems challenges — including root causes of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss — requires sustainable land and soil management, conservation efforts, and food production practices, in addition to economic viability and social inclusion. Foresight analysis can help policymakers, communities, and industries make informed decisions and prioritize and deploy effective and holistic strategies at the biodiversity-climate-society nexus.

What do we know about the future of food systems?

Food systems have achieved remarkable progress in recent decades, but moving forward, they will face significant challenges in delivering the many outputs and services we expect and need. This book presents a collection of short chapters on the current state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems, written by a diverse group of scientists from around the world with expertise in a wide range of related disciplines and regions. Each chapter examines a particular aspect of food systems, describes recent trends and challenges that highlight the importance of the topic, summarizes the latest available foresight research on that topic, and identifies key gaps in existing foresight research that merit further attention. In a world of complexity and uncertainty, the goal of this book — and the purpose of foresight analysis, more generally — is not to predict the future with precision, but rather to carefully consider and present what can be known about possible future pathways in order to inform choices today. The collection includes 15 chapters focused on major drivers and impacts of change in food systems, 11 chapters that provide regional and national perspectives on the future of food systems, 7 chapters on the future of major food commodities, and 3 chapters on food systems measurement and modeling tools. The contributors come from across CGIAR and many other partner research institutions around the world. This collection was begun as part of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight during the 2022–2024 period and completed as part of the ongoing area of work on foresight and prioritization under the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations.

What do we know about the future of agriculture in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay?

Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (ABPU) have significant weight in the global agricultural market. In 2020–2022, the bloc accounted for 53.1 percent of Latin America and the Caribbean’s total agricultural exports, and 9.3 percent of the world total. This contribution is key in many products at the global level too, such as soybean products (for which the group accounts for 56 percent of world trade), corn (32 percent), bovine meat (26 percent), poultry meat (20 percent), pork meat (6 percent), and wheat (6 percent) (2020–2022 Comtrade data). These commodities are essential for global food security, particularly in regions with growing populations and increasing food demand, notably Asia and Africa. Ensuring the sustainability of ABPU production is paramount not only for food security but also for environmental concerns. ABPU projections show robust growth in cereal and oilseed production, which is expected to increase by 26 percent (118 million tons) by 2033/34 relative to 2023/24. Total exports of cereals and oilseeds are projected to rise by 74 million tons, reaching 355 million tons, driven largely by corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite slowing growth in global demand and trade of food products, opportunities exist for ABPU countries to increase their food production and exports. Making the most of these opportunities will require increasing yields to maintain production growth while ensuring sustainability. To this end, technological advancements such as minimal soil disturbance, permanent cover cropping, crop diversification, intensive fattening, biotechnology, biological inputs, and precision agriculture can help increase productivity while minimizing environmental impact. The investments required to increase the use of enhanced technology could benefit greatly from a more stable political and macroeconomic context, as well as clear and consistent policies. For example, multilateral trade negotiations in agriculture should not be undermined. Collaboration among ABPU countries could greatly enhance the strategies needed to achieve these sustainability and food security objectives. The analysis described here is intended to kickstart this collaboration, which has shown significant potential for future work.

What do we know about the future of foresight modeling related to food systems?

“Foresight modeling” is thinking about the future using a simplified representation of reality to inform choices we make today. Quantitative foresight modeling is increasingly used to inform decision-making related to food systems by analytically exploring alternative possible futures in a world that is becoming more complex and uncertain. Foresight modeling is improving in coverage and resolution, but various technical and institutional gaps remain. Artificial intelligence can help gather and synthesize information to improve foresight modeling, but it cannot replace the role of human expertise and foresight in testing assumptions and helping to shape the future. To be most effective, quantitative foresight modeling needs to be better linked with qualitative foresight approaches and complemented by engagement with decision-makers in an ongoing and systematic process.

What do we know about the future of food assistance?

Food assistance has evolved to address both immediate needs and long-term resilience, reflecting the broader scope of interventions beyond traditional food aid. Localized and cash-based assistance is growing in importance, but externally sourced, in-kind assistance remains crucial in areas where markets and food systems are disrupted and thus unable to ensure timely and stable access to nutritious food. Future food assistance needs will increasingly reflect changing geographies, growing urban food insecurity, and heightened market volatility, requiring adaptive, anticipatory, and multilayered strategies. Significant gaps remain in understanding how to sustainably transition from international food assistance to locally driven, resilient food systems that address long-term nutritional adequacy and adapt to compounding crises. Foresight research can help highlight the intersection of climate change, conflict, and economic volatility as key drivers of future food assistance needs, and the nature of innovations to boost efficiency and impact. Expanded use of digital tools and integration of food assistance into social protection systems offer promising pathways toward enhanced efficiency and impact. Further research is needed to ensure that innovations reach the most vulnerable in low-resource settings and that integrated systems are sustainable.

What do we know about the future of food systems in relation to climate change?

Climate change poses major challenges to agriculture and food systems, but the latest foresight modeling suggests impacts may be more nuanced than previously thought. For example, economic feedback mechanisms affect global average impacts of climate change on yields and important differences arise between the various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios and climate models. More importantly, global averages mask wide diversity in impacts across geographies, commodities, and people’s ability to adapt. In addition to long-term impacts of changes in global averages, increasing climate variability is likely to lead to a higher frequency of production shocks from adverse climate events. Climate change is expected to lower GDP and therefore increase the number of food-insecure households and increase poverty. It may also slow growth of agricultural productivity, adversely impacting rural households. Agriculture and food systems (including diets, energy use, and land use change) play a key role in global emissions and strategies to reach net zero, but these strategies are at cross purposes with meeting food needs under climate change and rising demand for food globally. Foresight modeling can help decision-makers evaluate these trade-offs and ameliorate particularly adverse impacts.