IFPRI Publications: Journal Articles

Mapping supply chains, cost structure analysis, and investment priorities for food system transformation under conflict and climate stress in northern Nigeria

Artificial intelligence for decoding diet-gut microbiome-health interactions: A systematic scoping review

Diet is a major modifiable determinant of metabolic, immune, and inflammatory health, yet individual responses to the same dietary exposure often differ markedly because many effects are mediated by the gut microbiome. This systematic scoping review summarizes how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have been used to decode diet-gut microbiome-health interactions. Following PRISMA 2020 guidance, we searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, IEEE Xplore, Google Scholar, and citation lists for studies linking diet or nutrition, gut microbiome data, AI/ML methods, and health-related outcomes. Evidence was organized across biological mechanisms, data types, algorithm families, validation strategies, translational applications, and ethical constraints. Current evidence shows that tree-based ensembles, penalized regression, neural networks, autoencoders, graph learning, explainable AI, and emerging foundation-model approaches can improve phenotype prediction, multi-omics integration, microbial feature discovery, and personalized dietary response modeling. However, most studies remain limited by small or geographically restricted cohorts, heterogeneous sequencing and dietary assessment protocols, incomplete external validation, and weak experimental confirmation of model-derived mechanisms. We therefore propose a validation-to-translation framework that links leakage-free model development, cohort-external testing, explainable biological interpretation, prospective dietary intervention, privacy-preserving data sharing, and regulatory evaluation. AI is unlikely to replace mechanistic microbiome research, but it can substantially strengthen precision nutrition when embedded in transparent, reproducible, and clinically validated workflows.

What happens after the boom? Aquaculture, land use change, and smallholder resilience in Central Thailand

There has been a proliferation of research on Southeast Asian crop booms over the past 15 years. Most studies take place at the height of booms or examine the immediate trajectory of boom and subsequent ‘bust’. Few take a longer-term perspective. In this article we draw on the literature on crop booms and scholarship on ‘everyday’ forms of agrarian transformation to address the question of what happens to livelihoods and land use patterns after a crop boom has ended. We pose this question with reference to aquaculture (shrimp and fish farming) in Central Thailand, which has undergone a series of booms and busts since the 1980s. We address the question using integrated mixed methods (geospatial analysis of land use change, surveys of 455 farm households in 8 provinces, in-depth interviews with 40 farmers). The post-boom trajectory of aquaculture and associated livelihoods has been characterized by the attenuation of boom/bust cycles, continuous adaptation and diversification by producers in the face of successive overlapping shocks, and a surprising degree of continuity and persistence in land use, landholdings and livelihoods. This pattern reflects historical legacies including high levels of absentee landlordism and secure agricultural tenancy and land tenure. Intra-household division and reconsolidation of inherited land, the relatively high economic value and environmental plasticity of key species farmed, and Thailand's ‘middle-income trap’ status all contribute to the persistence of aquaculture after the boom.

Distance, prospects, and migration to towns and cities

The impact of spatial shifts of paddy fields on CH4 emissions in China, 1990–2020

The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala

International migration affects labor supply, production patterns, and external income flows in origin countries, yet our understanding of its economy-wide and distributional consequences remains limited, particularly with regard to the role of return migration. This study integrates detailed microdata on migrant profiles into a general equilibrium model applied to Guatemala to examine how emigration and return migration affect macroeconomic performance, sectoral dynamics, and household welfare. We simulate three scenarios: a reference scenario reflecting recent-historical emigration patterns (MIG-0), a reduced-emigration scenario (MIG-1), and a net-return migration scenario (MIG-2), capturing recent shifts in emigration and return flows by skill level. Results reveal trade-offs between aggregate economic performance and distributional impacts across households. Compared to a baseline economy with no mobility, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises modestly under the reference scenario (+0.2 percent) and by additional 0.3–0.5 percentage points under the reduced-emigration and net-return scenarios, driven by expanded labor supply from returnees and currency depreciation. Non-agro-processing manufacturing shows the largest expansion (up to 1.8 percent), reflecting its strong labor-absorption potential. Household welfare, especially among remittance-dependent households, is highly sensitive to these flows, with income and consumption declining under the two counterfactual migration scenarios. These findings underscore the need for policies that facilitate returnee reintegration and strengthen social protection for remittance-dependent households, ensuring that the macroeconomic gains from migration adjustments translate into equitable welfare improvements.

After quantification: Insights from India’s Soil Health Card scheme

As the concept of soil health gains prominence, it becomes increasingly important to examine how states design and implement soil health policies. Does soil health offer a novel pathway to enact and legitimize institutional changes toward more sustainable farming systems, or does it risk becoming another neologism that preserves status quo, productivist agriculture? We explore these questions through an analysis of one of the most ambitious state-led initiatives organized around soil health: India’s Soil Health Card (SHC) scheme. The SHC scheme seeks to provide every farmer in the country with bi-annual soil test reports, based on the assumption that improved information will encourage more judicious use of fertilizers and pesticides. The assumption reflects a broader emphasis within the agricultural sciences on the importance of quantifying soil health. Drawing on government documents and farmer perception studies (n = 38), we find that although farmers view the cards positively, they make few substantive changes to their farming practices. As an illustrative case, India’s grand SHC scheme shows that quantification alone is insufficient and could even dampen momentum for transformative policy reforms. Effective and durable change lies in pairing efforts to quantify soil health with (a) plural epistemic approaches to knowledge production, (b) participatory models for knowledge dissemination, and (c) structural reforms in the agri-food system that address issues around land tenure and subsidies.

Hcropland30: A hybrid 30-m global cropland map generated by leveraging global land cover products and Landsat data via deep learning

Integrated hydrological and economic assessment of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change

Demands for water, energy, and food are rapidly increasing in many low- and middle-income countries, driving the development of large-scale hydropower and irrigation projects. As climate change poses major risks and uncertainties for large-scale infrastructure investments, it is essential to stress-test infrastructure development plans to address these challenges and strengthen resilience. The Nile is one of the world’s longest rivers, draining approximately 10% of Africa’s land surface; Sudan accounts for around 40% of the basin area, and several new large hydropower and irrigation infrastructure projects are planned. We develop an integrated analytical framework for the Nile River system, utilizing 16 climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 6 and hydrological, river system, and Computable General Equilibrium models to evaluate the biophysical and economic impacts of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change. The results indicate a projected increase in the naturalized streamflow of the Nile by 2050 due to climate change. A phased hydropower and irrigation development strategy in Sudan – targeting a total of 1,500 MW of hydropower capacity and approximately one million hectares of irrigated wheat – is projected to increase annual hydropower generation by up to 8.1 TWh and expand total wheat area by 283% by 2050. These developments increase the undiscounted national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during 2030–2050 by US$ 0.1 to 0.4 billion per year, with larger increases occurring under high economic growth pathways. This research highlights the interconnected nature of climate change, water resource development, and economic performance, underscoring the importance of integrated assessment in informing investment decisions.

Persistent BMI and height deficits reflect structural and geographic inequities among adolescent girls in Nepal

Adolescence is a period of rapid growth; however, many adolescent girls experience suboptimal growth trajectories. This longitudinal study assessed changes in body mass index (BMI) and linear growth and associated factors among Nepali adolescent girls from 2017-2019. We analysed panel data from three waves (2017 [n=770], 2018 [n=682] and 2019 [n=618]) of never-married and non-pregnant girls aged 10-19 years in 2017. BMI-for-age difference (BMI-AD) and height-for-age difference (HAD), indicating deviation from WHO age- and sex-specific medians, were used to assess change over time. BMI-AD and conditional growth (calculated as residuals from regressions of 2018/2019 HAD on prior HAD and age) were used in the regression analyses to identify associated factors. Conditional growth reflects linear growth above or below what would be expected, based on prior height and age. We used descriptive statistics to assess change, and linear mixed-effects and ordinary least squares regression to identify factors associated with BMI-AD and conditional growth, respectively. Findings confirmed that girls consistently had lower BMI (-1.78kg/m2, -1.60kg/m2 and –1.48kg/m2 respectively in 2017, 2018, 2019) and height relative to the WHO median for their age and sex (-10.3cm, -10.2cm and -9.9cm respectively in 2017, 2018, 2019), with negligible improvements. Factors associated with higher BMI-AD were post-menarche status (0.98kg/m2, 95% CI 0.72, 1.25), higher education (0.11kg/m2, 95% CI 0.01, 0.21), and disadvantaged caste/ethnicity (0.48kg/m2, 95% CI 0.14, 0.83); in contrast, older age (-0.17kg/m2, 95% CI -0.27, -0.07), food insecurity (-0.31kg/m2, 95% CI -0.57, -0.06), and terai (-0.93kg/m2, 95% CI -1.45, -0.40) or hill (-0.57kg/m2, 95% CI -1.06, -0.08) residence were associated with lower BMI-AD. For conditional linear growth, older age (0.19cm, 95% CI 0.14, 0.24 for 2018; 0.16cm, 95% CI 0.11, 0.21 for 2019) and underweight (0.25cm, 95% CI 0.10, 0.40 for 2018) predicted higher gains than expected given their prior height and age, whereas post-menarche status (-0.94cm, 95% CI -1.16, -0.72 for 2018; -1.03cm, 95% CI -1.25, -0.82 for 2019) and terai (-0.35cm, 95% CI -0.62, -0.08 for 2018; -0.31cm, 95% CI -0.59, -0.03 for 2019) hill (-0.25cm, 95% CI -0.48, -0.02 for 2019) residence predicted lower growth than expected given their prior height and age. Findings highlight the need to address age-related nutrition, education, food insecurity, and geographic disparities to support healthy growth.

Inter‐group cooperation and conflict. Experimental evidence from Yemen

The impact of public price information on farm incomes: Lessons from the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange

Inadequate energy and micronutrient intakes across Filipino population groups: Findings from the 2021 Expanded National Nutrition Survey

Background Diet-related challenges and food insecurity are experienced by many Filipinos, underscoring the need for evidence-based interventions to improve diet quality and prevent malnutrition. Objectives The study aimed to evaluate the usual energy and nutrient intakes and the probability of inadequate micronutrient intake across different population groups in the Philippines. Methods The 2021 Expanded National Nutrition Survey was a nationally representative survey conducted in the Philippines; it assessed dietary intake using a quantitative 24-h dietary recall, with a repeated recall among 50% of participants on nonconsecutive days. Usual intakes, probability of inadequate intake (PII) for micronutrients, and mean probability of inadequacy (MPI) for 11 micronutrients were estimated using the National Cancer Institute method among children under-5 (U5, n = 4930), school-aged children (SAC; 6–9 y, n = 8116), adolescents (10–19 y, n = 15,394), adults (20–59 y, n = 29,391), elderly (>60 y, n = 9170), nonpregnant/nonlactating women of reproductive age (NPNL-WRA; 15–49 y, n = 15,037), pregnant females (n = 436), and lactating females (n = 1354). Results Mean energy intake ranged from 699 kcal/d in U5 to 1500 kcal/d in adults and was below recommendations across all populations. Carbohydrates contributed 61% of energy in U5 and 73% in adults and lactating females. Protein contributed 12% to 14% and fat 13% to 26% across all groups. High PII (>75%) for calcium, zinc, vitamin C, riboflavin, iron, thiamine, and folate was observed in most groups, except for lower inadequacies in thiamine, folate, vitamin B6, and vitamin B12 among U5 and SAC. MPI increased with age, from 59.5% in U5 to 83.3% in lactating females and was higher among groups from food-insecure households. Conclusions Reported energy intake was below recommendations in most groups. Intake of many micronutrients was inadequate, particularly among NPNL-WRA, pregnant, and lactating women, highlighting the urgent need for targeted interventions to improve dietary quality, micronutrient intake, and food security among vulnerable populations.

Nutrition sensitive poverty and its correlates in Papua New Guinea: Incorporating healthy diet targets into poverty measurement

As the international development community increasingly prioritizes nutrition outcomes, incorporating healthy diets into poverty measurements has important implications for what it means to be poor. Particularly for low- and middle-income countries dependent on domestic agriculture and low-cost food imports, evaluating the access to healthy diets is crucial to meeting food security goals. This paper provides the most expansive poverty assessment using the cost of basic needs approach in Papua New Guinea (PNG) in 15 years. In doing so, we compare a standard cost of basic needs poverty line where the food poverty line is defined by modest diets aligned with consumption patterns that meet a dietary energy (calorie) threshold; and a healthy diet food poverty line that meets both the dietary energy threshold and recommended nutrition targets. Results suggest that 43% of sample individuals live below the standard cost of basic needs poverty line. An additional 21% of sample individuals (64%) live below the healthy diet poverty line due to the relatively high cost of nutrient-dense foods in PNG. Multivariate regression analysis underscores the importance of household income diversification, whether via non-farm enterprise ownership or migrant remittances. Results reflect the unique challenges characterized by PNG’s remote landscape and lack of rural services, amplifying the need to improve rural-urban linkages that promote market access, educational attainment, and higher value employment opportunities.

Where does decentralised green nitrogen fit in Africa’s fertiliser resilience strategy?

Africa faces recurrent fertiliser shocks because much of its nitrogen supply depends on imported products, fossil energy, and exposed trade routes, while production, product mix, logistics, and farm-gate demand remain poorly aligned. Decentralised green nitrogen production – defined as small-scale nitrogen fertilizer synthesis powered by renewable electricity – could make a major contribution to addressing these challenge, but to go to scale it will need to lower delivered costs, improve farm returns, reach farmers with responsive crops, and manage product, safety, resource, and governance risks. This opinion piece argues for an Africa-wide prioritisation assessment that compares potential decentralised production with imports, regional trade, larger low-emission plants, blending, logistics, and advisory support. The goal is to identify intervention bundles that deliver the right nitrogen product to the right farmers at the right cost for the coming decades.

In the name of love: Policy imitation, political incentives, and local economic growth

Buyers' response to third-party quality certification: Theory and evidence from Ethiopian wheat traders

When quality attributes of a product are not directly observable, third-party certification (TPC) enables buyers to distinguish between quality levels and reward sellers accordingly. We study the adoption of TPC by traders in smallholder-based agricultural value chains in low-income countries, where traders aggregate products from many small-scale producers before selling in bulk to downstream processors. In this context, the introduction of TPC services has oftentimes failed. We develop a theoretical model identifying how different market conditions affect traders' choice to purchase certified output from farmers. Next, using a novel lab-in-the-field experiment with Ethiopian wheat traders, we examine the model's predictions. Traders’ willingness to specialize in certified output increases with the share of certified wheat in the market, and this effect is stronger in larger markets. However, we find that traders do not optimally respond to variation in the quality of uncertified wheat in the market. We also analyze conditions where traders deviate from optimal behavior and discuss implications for research and policy making to promote TPC in smallholder-based value-chains. JEL Codes: Q13; D22; O13; C93

Rural land rental markets in developing countries: Can survey design innovations improve land market participation statistics?

A longstanding puzzle in the African land rental market literature is the often-observed discrepancy between the number of tenants (renters-in) and the much smaller number of landlords (renters-out) in survey data. If this discrepancy derives from systematic biases in survey data responses on rental market participation, then the existing body of survey-based empirical work on land rental markets impacts may be fundamentally flawed. To examine this issue, we implemented two survey experiments. First, we tested the hypothesis that some categories of rented land are underreported because enumerators and respondents focus primarily on parcels directly managed or cultivated by the household. A random subset of respondents received a priming nudge reminding them to account for all land, including rented- or sharecropped-in and rented- or sharecropped-out parcels. Second, we tested whether households underreport rented- or sharecropped-out land due to reluctance to disclose activities that may carry social or institutional repercussions, using a double-list experiment to infer true rates of participation. Interestingly, our results indicate a significant underreporting of both renting-in and renting-out land but arising through different mechanisms. The priming nudge increased reports of renting-/sharecropping-in by 4 percentage points (equivalent to 13% of landlords in the sample) but had negligible effects on reported renting-/sharecropping-out. By contrast, the list experiment suggests that the true share of renting-out households is about 15%: much higher than the 3% in parcel-roster responses. These results underscore the need for improved survey methods to accurately observe land rental market participation and evaluate its impact.

Inflammation and micronutrient status of children and adolescents in 12 countries are only weakly associated: The BRINDA Project

Women’s empowerment, crop productivity, and food security: Nationally representative panel data analysis in Malawi

Cooperation and the management of local common resources in remote rural communities

It is widely recognized that local management of common pool resources can be more efficient and more effective than private markets or top-down government management, especially in remote rural communities in which the institutions may be weak or prone to elite capture. In this paper, we explore the propensity for cooperation in the management of local common resources by introducing a variant of a public goods game among remote rural communities in the state of Odisha, in eastern India. We explore various patterns of cooperation, including free riding behaviour, unconditional cooperation and conditional cooperation, in which individuals’ propensity toward cooperation is tied to their beliefs about the level of cooperation among their peers. We find that a significant portion of our sample fall into this latter category, but also that their expectations about the level of contributions among their peers are somewhat malleable. JEL classification: Q32, Q12, C72

Accessing agricultural credit through Kisan Credit Cards: Patterns of use, transaction costs, and institutional barriers in eastern India

Aligning private incentives with societal goals in smallholder agriculture

Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture

Food systems are a major contributor to exceeding planetary boundaries and poor quality diets are a key mortality risk globally. Projected population and income growth could exacerbate these challenges. In response, there are calls for transformation towards healthy and sustainable food systems. However, the scale and distribution of the impacts of this transformation on agriculture are underexplored. Here we show that, by 2050, the transformation of food systems towards healthy diets (adoption of the EAT–Lancet reference diet), improved productivity and halving of food waste results in a fundamental restructuring of global agriculture, aspects of which break with historical trends. Scenario simulations using a multimodel ensemble of ten global economic models show a 6% median decrease in agricultural land (+1% to −26%) compared with 2020 levels. By 2050, agricultural production would be 17% lower than business-as-usual projections (−2% to −32%) and, economically, the value of this production is US$1.6 trillion (26%) lower (+8% to −58%). Within this, the value of livestock production would be substantially lower than current 2050 projections (−49% to −83%), while vegetable, fruit, nut and legume production value would increase by 23% (−33% to +106%). Results are dependent on the assumed policies to achieve the transformation scenario. We highlight a more active role for food policy to consider the benefits of such a transformation (improved population health and reduced environmental pressures) and navigate the political economy of its impacts.

Do ultra-poor graduation programs build women’s resilience to weather shocks? Evidence from rural Ethiopia

We assess whether layering an ultra-poor graduation program on Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) protects women and their households from localized weather shocks. Using panel data from a large cluster-randomized trial matched with detailed weather records, we identify community-level exposure to dryness shocks. Women who are exposed to dryness shocks experience deteriorating nutritional status (in conjunction with declining household food security and assets) and a significant increase in the risk of intimate partner violence. However, access to the graduation program fully buffers women from any increase in intimate partner violence, and partially buffers women and their households against other adverse effects. Further analysis suggests that improved household savings likely drives the program’s protective impact.

A participatory framework to assess agricultural sustainability: Cover cropping as an illustrative example

This study developed an analysis‐oriented agricultural sustainability framework to assess how on‐farm biodiversity‐enhancing agricultural practices impact outcome‐based indicators of environmental, economic, and social sustainability. Building on an existing national‐scale agricultural sustainability assessment framework, we adapted it to evaluate farm‐level practices. Using an iterative design, we engaged stakeholders through a farmer survey and workshop to refine indicator selection and ensure contextual relevance. We used biodiversity‐enhancing practices in the Midwestern United States as an illustrative example of how the framework could be applied. Workshop participants were asked to use cover crops as an example to consider how this class of practices affected agricultural sustainability. Our findings highlight that stakeholder engagement during framework development can improve the relevance and specificity of indicator selection, supporting more targeted quantitative analysis for decision‐making.

The gendered effects of rainfall shocks on stunting: Evidence from Papua New Guinea

Rainfall fluctuations significantly reduce welfare for poor rural households in low- and middle-income countries dependent on rainfed agriculture for consumption, and the effects of these shocks can be borne disproportionately by vulnerable household members, particularly children and girls. We present new evidence around the effects of rainfall fluctuations on child anthropometric status in Papua New Guinea, an understudied context characterized by some of the highest stunting rates in the world. We show that negative fluctuations in rainfall within the first 12 months of life lead to a reduction in height-for-age and weight-for-age (though not stunting), but this effect is observed only for girls.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of iron, vitamin A, and zinc biofortification in selected low- and middle-income countries: A modelling study

Background Crop biofortification is an important tool to improve micronutrient deficiency, but the evidence of its cost-effectiveness remains limited. Objectives This study aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of biofortified crops to address iron, zinc, and vitamin A deficiency in 13 countries. Methods We used the burden of disease (BoD) measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) compiled by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), supplemented by a literature review, to quantify DALYs resulting from micronutrient deficiencies. Data and assumptions from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) were used to estimate micronutrient intake and the potential impact of biofortification on micronutrient intake to calculate the efficacy of biofortification in reducing DALYs under conservative, moderate, and optimistic scenarios. The cost was estimated for 30 years (2024-2053) while the benefits were for 20 years (2034-2053). An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), defined as additional cost per DALY averted, was estimated. Results The total cost of biofortification programs varied across countries, ranging from $4.28 million in Guatemala to $34.04 million in Nigeria over 30 years. The ICERs of biofortification varied by type of crop and country; regardless, all are cost-effective using GDP-based cut-offs, except for biofortified cassava and sweet potatoes in Zimbabwe. For example, for iron biofortification of beans under the conservative scenario, ICER was as low as $58.04 per DALY averted in Kenya and as high as $535.52 per DALY averted in Zimbabwe, demonstrating the range of cost-effectiveness of the intervention among the countries selected for the study. A similar pattern was found for iron biofortification of pearl millet; vitamin A biofortification of cassava, maize, and sweet potatoes; and zinc biofortification of rice, wheat, and maize in most countries. Conclusion Biofortification of staple crops by selective plant breeding is potentially cost-effective to address iron, zinc, and vitamin A deficiencies.

Adolescent-selected food intake and engagement with the external food environment contribute to unhealthy diets in Accra, Ghana

Background As adolescents gain autonomy, they interact more independently with their food environments, increasing their vulnerability to rapidly changing and often unhealthy food environments. In Accra, Ghana, unhealthy foods and beverages are widely available and heavily marketed. Objective To assess the healthiness and nutrient adequacy of adolescents’ diets in Accra; and to examine whether diet healthiness is associated with independent adolescent food selection and their engagement with home, school and outlet food environments. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study using quantitative 24-hour dietary recalls among 911 adolescents aged 12 to 18 years living in five low- and five middle-class neighborhoods in Accra. For each food and beverage consumed, we documented who selected it and where it was obtained and consumed. We calculated the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) and the prevalence of adequate intake for fruits and vegetables, protein, fiber, total sugar, total fat, saturated fat and 11 micronutrients. Mixed effects models assessed associations between independent adolescent food selection and food acquisition location (home, school, or other food outlets), and diet healthiness and macro- and micronutrient intake. Results A large proportion of adolescents consumed excessive amounts of total sugar (49%) and total fat (44%) and inadequate amounts of fruits and vegetables (98%), fiber (45%), and eight of the eleven micronutrients assessed (39-100%). Greater adolescent-selected food intake (62% of energy intake, on average) was associated with lower GDQS and intakes of fruit and vegetables, protein, fiber, and six micronutrients, and with higher sugar intake (P<0.05). Greater reliance on foods from the external food environment (school: 14%, other outlets: 46%) showed similar associations with poorer dietary indicators. Conclusion Strengthening the design, implementation and enforcement of coordinated food policy bundles is needed to shift adolescents’ preferences towards healthy foods, and reduce the availability, accessibility, and appeal of unhealthy options in their food environments.

Wildfire shocks, labor markets, and public policies: Economy-wide evidence from a Mediterranean country

Using the 2017 Portuguese wildfires as empirical evidence from a Mediterranean climate country, this paper assesses the economy-wide and employment effects of wildfire-related capital and labor shocks through a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with an extended labor-market framework. The analysis focuses on how wildfire shocks interact with labor markets, affect aggregate welfare, and condition the effectiveness of public policy responses. The results show that labor-market disruptions amplify economic losses beyond direct physical damage. Among the policy scenarios examined, comprehensive responses combining infrastructure investment, sector-specific support, and household transfers provide the strongest mitigation of aggregate losses. Recovery and mitigation policies generate the strongest positive effects on GDP, while the fire suppression-cost scenario alone has limited effectiveness. Employment impacts are concentrated in the primary and tourism-related sectors, particularly forestry, agriculture, transport, and accommodation. The findings highlight the importance of maintaining labor-force participation during climate disasters and of combining capital restoration with household support. By quantifying the economy-wide trade-offs between wildfire damage, labor-market disruption, and public-response channels, the paper provides evidence relevant to wildfire-prone Mediterranean economies and to broader environmental-development debates.

The impact of targeted transfer programs on labour supply: Evidence from rural China

Preservation of the IFPRI record: A case study of institutional repository mergers and migrations

At its core, a repository migration is the transfer of records from one system to another. In some cases, it is more of an unraveling, repair, relocation, and rebuilding of a historic property. In 2024, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) library undertook its second migration from an independent CONTENTdm repository to a shared DSpace repository. The institute set an ambitious goal to complete the migration within a single contract cycle with CONTENTdm. Since 2012, the repository has functioned as a bibliographic metadata layer serving the main corporate website, numerous project sites, and the global consortium (CGIAR) website, as well as a digital publishing platform and institutional metrics and reporting system. The team started working with a combination of tools, including: Microsoft Excel, OpenRefine, and custom scripts. Microsoft Excel allowed staff to easily see and manipulate large amounts of data across different metadata fields. OpenRefine (version 3.7) was instrumental in normalizing and cleaning name and keyword variations, as well as locating and editing a single repeated datapoint. The scripts, created by a member of the team and author of this paper, saved hours of time and allowed the team to meet ambitious goals. The team successfully migrated over 20,000 records within 13 months while simultaneously improving metadata quality. Prior to the migration, about half of journal articles lacked external links and several dozen PDFs had been lost over time. Additionally, from 2008–2017, IFPRI’s records experienced an average of 40% link rot. All of these issues were resolved during this process. Furthermore, the IFPRI record is now interoperable with the other CGIAR institutions and external search engines. While repository and metadata management remain ongoing tasks, this migration represents a significant step forward in preserving institutional knowledge, adopting established standards and best practices in knowledge management, supporting consortium activities, and enhancing the visibility of agricultural research outputs.

Collecting Holistic Evidence on Agroecology Performance to Accelerate Sustainable Food System Transitions

A growing body of research shows the potential of agroecology for enabling a shift to planet-friendly and socially just agrifood systems through context-specific transition pathways. We conduct a scoping review to identify and evaluate the potential of 42 existing agroecology adherence and/or agricultural performance assessment tools to generate credible, legitimate, salient and transferable evidence to inform these transitions. Results show that while multiple relevant tools exist, each of them can be strengthened in at least one area. While most tools are transferable (low time and resource requirements) and have legitimacy (open access with transparent methods), tools have variable saliency (holistic scope inclusive of local priorities) and credibility (use scientific design principles and quality assurance processes). For a subset of 11 tools collecting multidimensional performance data, analysis of 263 identified indicators showed there is a bias towards economic measures (notably income, yield, and resilience), while certain social (e.g. land tenure, traditional knowledge retention) and environmental (e.g. climate mitigation) aspects are regularly overlooked. Through a multidisciplinary process engaging experts across 8 countries, we develop a Holistic Localized Performance Assessment for agroecology (HOLPA) framework that integrates and builds on positive features of existing multidimensional agroecology performance assessments tools and overcomes key limitations. The HOLPA framework for analysis, agroecology indicators, key performance indicators, and low-cost localization process can be used to strengthen agroecology performance assessments, empowering landscape actors to identify evidence-based pathways towards agrifood systems where both people and nature can thrive.

Food on the go: How engagement with the food environment affects adolescent diets in northern Vietnam

As adolescents grow older, they increasingly engage with the food environment. Our study aimed to: 1) assess the contribution of prepared out of home (POH) foods to the healthiness of adolescent diets and 2) identify socio-demographic factors associated with POH foods intake in a rural, a peri-urban, and an urban area of Vietnam. We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 11–19-year-old adolescents (n = 2,861) and collected socio-demographic and dietary intake data (24-hour recall). The healthiness and micronutrient adequacy of diets was assessed using the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) and the micronutrient adequacy ratio (MAR) respectively. We used regression analyses with robust standard errors (to account for school-level clustering) to assess the consequences and identify the drivers of POH food intake. Over 80% of adolescents consumed foods POH on the previous day, contributing 22–26% of daily energy intake. Healthy food groups were underrepresented in POH foods, which were higher in fat, saturated fat, and sodium, but also had higher micronutrient density than foods prepared at home. POH intake was associated with higher energy intake and micronutrient adequacy, but lower diet healthiness. Socioeconomic status, female sex, pocket money, and smartphone ownership were associated with POH consumption, with site-specific differences. Food environments should be made healthier through front-of-package warning labels, reformulation (e.g., reducing milk fat and sugar), and restrictions on the marketing and availability of unhealthy foods combined with the promotion of healthy foods, snacks and meals.

Associations between hygiene practices and carcass contamination by Escherichia coli and coliforms in bovine slaughter facilities in rural Kenya

Carcass contamination during slaughter poses a significant threat to meat safety and public health, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This cross-sectional study, conducted in 25 bovine slaughter facilities in Busia County, Kenya, assessed contamination levels at four anatomical sites on cattle carcasses: rump, flank, brisket, and neck. The study also examined the association between slaughterhouse hygiene practices and microbial contamination by Escherichia coli and coliforms. A total of 193 carcasses were sampled after carcass dressing before sectioning, and E. coli and coliform loads were quantified using MC-Media Pad®. Statistical analyses revealed that contamination levels varied significantly across carcass sampling sites for both coliforms (p = 0.008) and E. coli (p = 0.026), with the brisket showing markedly higher contamination than the rump for coliforms (median 2.15 vs 1.61 log10 CFU/cm2, p = 0.004) and E. coli (median 1.04 vs 0 log10 CFU/cm2, p = 0.020). Key risk factors for increased contamination included carcass contact with the floor, splashing water from wet floors, and visible fecal matter on animal hides. These findings highlight the need for targeted hygiene interventions during slaughter, improved infrastructure, and stronger enforcement of meat safety regulations to reduce contamination and ensure safer meat products for consumers.

From farmer-centred design to algorithmic participation: Navigating technical demands and normative discourses in digital extension

Digital extension and farmer-centric design are increasingly presented as complementary strategies for transforming agricultural innovation systems: digital extension promises scale and efficiency, while farmer-centric design is expected to ensure relevance, inclusivity, and legitimacy. This paper challenges the assumption that these approaches are naturally aligned. Through Critical Discourse Analysis, we examine how farmer-centricity is enacted within digital extension initiatives and how its normative commitments are reshaped as digital platforms evolve. Empirically, we analyse two digital extension platforms developed between 2014 and 2024, one in the Global North and one in the Global South. Drawing on public-facing media, organisational records, design documents, and technical walkthroughs of each platform, we trace how normative, technical, and interpretive frames interact across different phases of platform development. Our findings show that, in early phases, digital extension is framed as enabling farmer-centric design, supporting decentralised design practices, epistemic pluralism, and farmer sovereignty. Over time, however, farmer-centricity becomes instrumentalised to support the scaling of digital extension through data generation, peer diffusion, and environmental accountability, placing new forms of labour and responsibility onto farmers without a commensurate redistribution of authority. These tensions are not resolved but reconfigured through design practices, often obscured by the rhetoric of empowerment and responsiveness. We conceptualise this dynamic as algorithmic participation: a form of participation mediated through digital infrastructures that anticipate and steer farmer engagement in ways that stabilise existing innovation logics. The paper contributes to debates on farmer-centric design and digital extension by showing how even well-intentioned practices can reproduce structural inequalities.

Does mechanization improve net farm income? Evidence from household survey in eastern India

Does local system strengthening improve nutrition program coverage and child growth: Evidence from a large-scale program initiative in India

Determinants of food safety practices among Ethiopian households: a multilevel mixed effects linear regression analysis

The total weighted sample included in this analysis was 62,432,197. Model with the lowest DIC, AIC and BIC values was selected as the best-fitting model. Safe food handling practice among households was 42.4%. Being completed primary school, secondary/vocational education, and university-level education had higher safe food handling practices by 0.21 (95% CI: 0.10, 0.32), 0.49 (95% CI: 0.36, 0.63), and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.64, 1.05), respectively. Working in government, the private sector, self-employed, and retired had significantly higher safe food handling practices by 0.28 (95% CI: 0.05, 0.51), 0.45 (95% CI: 0.17, 0.72), 0.34 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.54), and 0.35 (95% CI: 0.07, 0.64), respectively. Being poorer, middle, richer, and richest wealth index had significantly higher safe food handling practices by 0.33 (95% CI: 0.16, 0.50), 0.52 (95% CI: 0.33, 0.71), 0.84 (95% CI: 0.60, 1.08), and 1.37 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.65), respectively. Being married, female respondents, households having access to basic hygiene services, residing in urban areas, and being exposed to health information were significantly associated with the outcome. There is a significant gap in safe food handling practices. Core household and community-level factors that influence safe food handling practices were identified. Policymakers should implement targeted interventions.

How does rural governance adaptively address multiple rural development objectives? The case of Qingshan Village, China

Transforming food systems in times of global disorder

The transformation of global food systems is affected by global shocks and geopolitical changes. After decades of reductions in poverty, hunger, and malnutrition, the past decade has seen a dramatic reversal. Challenges caused by rising conflicts, climate shocks, and COVID‐19 (CCC) are reinforced by slowing productivity growth, trade disruptions, and increasing market volatility. While transformation requires major investments in agri‐food systems, global public investment in agricultural R&D has slowed, in both high‐ and low‐income countries. Reductions in development assistance further threaten investment in the world's poorest regions. But the crisis also presents opportunities. A new Agri‐food Aid and Investment Architecture (AAA) may be required, and key parts of such a financial architecture are already emerging, characterized by a larger contribution of emerging countries and the private sector, and the need for more efficient use of existing public and private expenditures.

Identifying the causal impacts of international sanctions on agricultural trade: An event study approach

A systematic review of the climatic impacts, diverse adaptation pathways and multiple adaptation barriers for inland aquaculture

Framing just agroecological transitions through participatory multistakeholder processes

Agroecology, as conceptualised in the thirteen HLPE principles, embeds justice dimensions in the place-based sustainable transition pathways it supports, yet operationalising just agroecological transitions is understudied and remains a design and implementation challenge. In this paper, we apply Schlosberg's four-dimensional justice framework post-hoc, distinguishing distributive, procedural, recognition, and capabilities justice, to six country-level Vision to Action participatory visioning processes conducted under the CGIAR Agroecology Initiative in India, Kenya, Peru, Senegal, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe. Although these processes had not been designed with explicit justice objectives, justice-relevant content emerged across them: competing visions revealed whose values are at stake in the transition; the composition and design of sessions determined whose knowledge shaped transition pathways; and intra-transition trade-offs revealed who bears the costs of change. The analysis revealed shared concerns around food security, fair returns, gender equity, and reduced external input dependence, which took locally specific forms. Capabilities concerns shaped transition pathways more than distributive and recognition claims; and a recurrent tension between visions of input autonomy and pathways of input substitution emerged. Government and private-sector actors were less represented than farmers but were generally assigned significant responsibility for enabling the transition. We argue that participatory multi-stakeholder visioning creates the conditions under which the justice content of agroecological transitions becomes visible, negotiable, and translatable into action planning. Establishing an explicit justice framing ex ante would allow deliberate choices on participant disaggregation while systematic mapping and engagement strategies for absent actors would allow future processes to embed justice-relevant content explicitly from the design stage.

A gender-just food systems transition

Healthier diets: A global economic modelling study of income and employment impacts across regions

Interest has grown in how to achieve healthy, sustainable, and affordable human diets. The potential income and employment effects of a transition towards healthier diets have received much less attention. We simulate aggregate and sectoral income and employment for business-as-usual and healthier diets for all geographic regions up to 2050 using scenario-based modelling. These healthier diets can increase food’s share of household expenditure in some regions, for example from 18% to 25% in East and Central Africa in 2050. Our results suggest that a global shift towards healthier diets leads to a reallocation of primary factors of production, especially low-skilled labour and capital, from non-agricultural sectors to crop agriculture in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Notably, in 2050, with healthier diets, agriculture’s share of low-skilled labour increases by 3.2 percentage points in East and Central Africa and 1.5 percentage points in South Asia excluding India. Although Gross Domestic Product increases in these regions relative to business-as-usual, this reallocation raises agriculture’s share of Gross Domestic Product, consistent with a slower pace of long-run structural transformation. The reallocation leads to a mild increase in wages for low-skilled workers relative to high-skilled workers in most of these regions, compared to business-as-usual. However, in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, food price increases outweigh wage gains for low-skilled labour, reducing real purchasing power. Policies that encourage healthier diets may also alter income and employment and reduce economic welfare of poor populations in some regions, so care is needed in policy design to avoid adverse unintended consequences.

Interpersonal communication and maternal behavioral practice: A case study of explanatory causal machine learning in Nepal

Background There is increasing interest not only in whether a program produced impacts but also the mechanisms through which the impacts were produced. Studies of nutrition interventions have frequently highlighted the role of nutrition education interventions, but few studies have investigated the paths through which those interventions achieve impact. Objectives We assessed the total effect of maternal exposure to interpersonal communication with a frontline worker on behavioral practice and the degree to which that effect operated through 2 key pathways: improved awareness and knowledge. We also conducted a comparative case study examining the differences between machine learning (ML) and structural equation model (SEM) approaches. Methods We used data from the endline cross-sectional survey of the quasi-experimental Suaahara study of 2040 mothers with a child less than 2 years of age. We estimated the total effect of maternal exposure to interpersonal communication with a frontline worker on her nutrition-related practices and the indirect effects through improvements in awareness and knowledge using ML and conventional SEMs. Models were adjusted for household, child, and maternal factors as well as household location. Results Maternal exposure to interpersonal communication with a frontline worker translated into practicing more of the ideal, promoted nutrition-related practices. Both methods suggested a similar total effect—ML: 0.58 (95% CI: 0.37, 0.78) and SEM: 0.60 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.72). ML models, however, attributed a much larger proportion of that total effect to indirect effects operating through awareness and knowledge (ML: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.15, 0.33; SEMs: 0.16; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.21). Conclusions Interpersonal communication improved nutrition-related practices, in part due to increasing one’s awareness and knowledge. The disparities in results between ML and SEMs suggested that the production of effects is a more complex, nonlinear or interactive function of awareness, knowledge, treatment and covariates than what is captured by simple linear models.

How do migrants fare in Africa’s urban labour markets?

Absent to care? The effect of parental migration on children's nutrition, health, and cognition in rural Gansu Province of China

Enhancing farmers’ access to neglected crop seeds for healthy diets in a changing climate: six recommendations for policy action

Food insecurity and poor diets undermine human health, livelihoods, and aspirations. Climate change further exacerbates the problem of achieving zero hunger. Promoting the production of a diverse portfolio of nutrient-dense, climate-resilient crops enables food supply for healthy diets in the coming years and decades. Many are underutilized even though they are considered opportunity crops, with an unrealized potential to improve food security and dietary quality amid climate change. Limited access to quality seed for these crops is a major bottleneck in their supply, as the current policy environment does not support farmers in broadening their portfolio with these crops. This paper identifies three key challenges that should be addressed to enable farmers to access quality seed of opportunity crops at scale. These are to make the diversity of opportunity crops (i) a priority for policy (ii) available for evaluation and breeding, and (iii) accessible to farmers, especially women and other disadvantaged groups. Six policy actions are recommended to address these challenges, which, if implemented, are likely to have both short- and long-term impacts in increasing farmers’ access to quality seeds of opportunity crops. Adopting these policy actions will help mainstream opportunity crops into seed systems as part of a broader strategy to diversify food systems from seed to plate.

Trends, determinants, and anthropometric consequences of low birthweight in Indian children: A prospective analysis of national data

Background Low birthweight (LBW) is a major concern for child survival and growth, and India accounts for the highest number of such cases globally. Studies have examined determinants of birthweight and child growth but little evidence exists on how birthweight influences growth outcomes during early childhood. This paper examines associations between maternal, household, and health-related factors, LBW, and growth faltering, and explores childhood growth trajectories across birthweight groups. Methods Data from three waves of India’s National Family Health Survey were used to examine heaping-adjusted trends and predictors of LBW. Regression-based decomposition was used to quantify the way in which changes in predictors could reduce future LBW prevalence. Trajectories of childhood anthropometry by LBW status and determinants were examined by using smoothing and regression methods. Results The LBW prevalence between 2000 and 2020 was 20% (unadjusted) and 40% (heaping-adjusted). Improvements in maternal stature, weight, household wealth, and antenatal care coverage could yield the largest future reductions in LBW. Children born with LBW had 1.5 times higher odds of being underweight and 1.3 times higher odds of stunting. Maternal short stature, underweight, and poverty were associated with higher odds of subsequent anthropometric faltering regardless of LBW. Conclusion Findings show the dominant role of maternal nutrition in birthweight and childhood growth outcomes. Once a child is born with LBW, there is limited potential to prevent subsequent anthropometric failure. To break the intergenerational cycle of undernutrition, programs must prioritize improved nutrition for girls beginning early in life and sustained through adolescence and preconception.

Responsible use of artificial intelligence and machine learning for food security early warning systems

Does adoption of organic vegetable farming really improve the welfare of vegetable farmers? Evidence from Ghana

Food systems performance evaluated against targets and benchmarks reveals urgent gaps and a path to 2050

Despite national and international commitments to food systems transformation and an increasing adoption of common indicators, no comprehensive targets have been established against which progress can be measured. Here, building on the Food Systems Countdown Initiative framework, we identify existing targets—based on internationally agreed commitments and normative goals—and establish benchmarks—based on empirically derived peer performance reference values at the global, regional and income group levels—for 44 Food Systems Countdown Initiative indicators. We also assess countries’ historical progress and the rate of change required to achieve targets and benchmarks over two different timescales. We show that current progress is insufficient to meet 2030 targets and benchmarks at global level. Comparing countries’ status to regional and income benchmarks, which are generally less ambitious, yields better performance across indicators and regions, although gaps remain. Achieving most targets and benchmarks by 2050 is possible if countries correct course and accelerate progress, but certain indicators will require considerable investment and intervention.

Adaptive policies balancing trade, productivity and cropland increases can support Zambia's nutrition security under future climate shocks

Policies in sub-Saharan Africa are constrained by a limited knowledge of climate change extremes and a focus on agricultural production rather than nutrition supply. Here we model the impacts of future extremes on national-level calorie and nutrient supply in Zambia for production and nutrition focused policy scenarios. We identify the specific cropland, yield and import increases required to achieve climate-resilient nutrition security and highlight policy options.