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The making of a non-parametric multi-shock index (MSI)

2026Ulimwengu, John M.

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The making of a non-parametric multi-shock index (MSI)

Households in low- and middle-income countries increasingly face overlapping economic, climatic, health, and conflict-related shocks that jointly erode welfare and food security. Yet many empirical and operational tools still measure shocks one at a time or aggregate them using ad hoc rules that assume equal severity and linear effects. This paper proposes a non-parametric multi-shock index (MSI) that summarizes household exposure to multiple shocks using an assumption-light, data-driven approach. The MSI construction proceeds in two steps: (i) shocks are empirically filtered based on their observed negative association with food security outcomes (anchored to the Food Consumption Score), and (ii) retained shocks are aggregated using alternative weighting schemes, including unweighted, population-weighted, and prevalence-weighted variants. We validate the MSI using multiple food security measures—Food Consumption Score (FCS), Reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI), Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), and Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS). An application using FAO’s Data in Emergencies (DIEM) household survey for Nigeria illustrates the approach and shows that cumulative exposure—especially systemic and compound exposure—is strongly associated with deteriorating food security outcomes. Among tested variants, the prevalence-weighted MSI provides the clearest discriminatory power and distributional sensitivity, supporting its use for targeting, monitoring, and shock-responsive programming (FAO, 2016; Maxwell et al., 2014; World Bank, 2018).

Year published

2026

Authors

Ulimwengu, John M.

Citation

Ulimwengu, John M. 2026. The making of a non-parametric multi-shock index (MSI). IFPRI Discussion Paper 2407. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/181990

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Western Africa; Food Security; Diet; Resilience; Modelling; Indicators; Surveys

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Journal Article

Global soybean trade dynamics: Drivers, impacts, and sustainability

2026

Peng, Dailiang; Zhang, Hongchi; Zhang, Yizhou; Yu, Le; Chen, Minpeng; Chen, Jing M.; You, Liangzhi; Li, Peiwu; Liu, Jianguo; Zhang, Xiaoyang

…more

Arvor, Damien; Kuchler, Patrick; Huang, Jianxi; Zhang, Hankui; Hao, Pengyu; Huang, Jingfeng; Shi, Zhou; Wang, Fumin; Song, Kaishan; Pei, Zhiyuan; Li, Cunjun; Xie, Yue; Zhang, Qi; Liang, Meijuan; Li, Hui; Hu, Jinkang; Lou, Zihang; Zheng, Shijun; Feng, Xuxiang; Peng, Hao; Li, Xiyu; Huete, Alfredo; Zhang, Bing

Details

Global soybean trade dynamics: Drivers, impacts, and sustainability

Since the 20th century, the global soybean trade has undergone major changes, shaped by rising demand, climate-related risks, and shifting international dynamics. Despite its global importance, important gaps remain in understanding the complex drivers and sustainability challenges of this transformation. This review synthesizes both direct and indirect forces reshaping trade flows, spanning market dynamics, supply chain logistics, policy shifts, and technological innovation. We examine how soybean trade expansion has impacted deforestation, inequality, and food security, and assess the responses of governments and companies to address these challenges. Finally, we provide a forward-looking perspective on the strategic pathways needed to ensure a more resilient and sustainable global soybean system. The integrated insights offered in this review can inform sustainable trade strategies and foster cross-scale policy coordination for a more resilient global agri-food system.

Year published

2026

Authors

Peng, Dailiang; Zhang, Hongchi; Zhang, Yizhou; Yu, Le; Chen, Minpeng; Chen, Jing M.; You, Liangzhi; Li, Peiwu; Liu, Jianguo; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Arvor, Damien; Kuchler, Patrick; Huang, Jianxi; Zhang, Hankui; Hao, Pengyu; Huang, Jingfeng; Shi, Zhou; Wang, Fumin; Song, Kaishan; Pei, Zhiyuan; Li, Cunjun; Xie, Yue; Zhang, Qi; Liang, Meijuan; Li, Hui; Hu, Jinkang; Lou, Zihang; Zheng, Shijun; Feng, Xuxiang; Peng, Hao; Li, Xiyu; Huete, Alfredo; Zhang, Bing

Citation

Peng, Dailiang; Zhang, Hongchi; Zhang, Yizhou; Yu, Le; Chen, Minpeng; et al. 2026. Global soybean trade dynamics: Drivers, impacts, and sustainability. The Innovation 7(2): 101124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101124

Keywords

Soybeans; Trade; Smallholders; Food Security; Sustainability; Governance; Livelihoods

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101124 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Information framing effects on diet choices among Chinese urban residents

2026Chen, Kevin Z.; Yu, Luyun; Lin, Wen; Ortega, David L.

Details

Information framing effects on diet choices among Chinese urban residents

Unhealthy diets have become a leading contributor to death and disability globally. The current Chinese diet falls short of a healthy diet, including too much meat, oil, salt, and sugar while having insufficient levels of whole grains, fruits, nuts, and milk. Transforming Chinese dietary patterns has become urgent. This paper compares the effectiveness of information framing effects on enhancing Chinese consumers’ healthy diet choices, varied by information content, source, and presentation. The survey is conducted across six Chinese cities, with a sample of 3150 urban consumers. Chinese consumers’ healthy diet choices are measured using an online discrete choice experiment. Four different diet patterns were used to label each of the product alternatives in the experiment, which varied in taste and cost. Results reveal that compared to positive information; negatively framed healthy information is more effective in increasing Chinese consumers’ valuations for healthy diets. Consumer valuation of a healthy whole diet is significantly enhanced when the information is from social celebrities, compared to information from a scientific source. Moreover, when health information is disclosed via social media, its effectiveness in promoting healthy diet choices is significantly reduced. Our findings have implications for designing and implementing nutrition policies and programs in China and other developing countries.

Year published

2026

Authors

Chen, Kevin Z.; Yu, Luyun; Lin, Wen; Ortega, David L.

Citation

Chen, Kevin Z.; Yu, Luyun; Lin, Wen; and Ortega, David L. Information framing effects on diet choices among Chinese urban residents. Agribusiness. Article in Press. First published on November 29, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21998

Keywords

Diet; Feeding Preferences; Urban Population; Health; Information; Consumers

Language

English

Access/Licence

Limited Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21998 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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National Science Foundation, United States

The making of a non-parametric multi-shock index (MSI)

The making of a non-parametric multi-shock index (MSI)

Global soybean trade dynamics: Drivers, impacts, and sustainability

Global soybean trade dynamics: Drivers, impacts, and sustainability

Information framing effects on diet choices among Chinese urban residents

Information framing effects on diet choices among Chinese urban residents