A recent media feature by BBC News Polska on global food price trends cites Rob Vos, senior research fellow in IFPRI’s Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI) Unit.
Vos warns, “The era of cheap food is over. The world must adjust to this new reality.”
While global market prices have eased since their 2022 peak, many countries still face high food inflation driven by rising production costs, supply chain disruptions, climate change, and trade policies.
“The era of low food prices was the result of a massive increase in agricultural productivity since the 1970s,” says Vos. This period saw the “Green Revolution”—a widespread shift to high-yield crop varieties and intensive farming techniques. But today, with productivity growth slowed, and as demand for food continues to rise, prices have gone up, Vos explains.
Vos notes that it is unclear whether US tariffs will push global food prices higher or trigger a global economic slowdown that could bring them down. Even if a slowdown occurs, he warns, food price inflation may remain high in many low- and middle-income countries. This is because a drop in demand for exports from these countries could weaken their currencies, making imported food more expensive, he explains.
More than one-third of the world’s population cannot afford a healthy diet—including nearly two-thirds of Africa’s population, according to the latest FAO data. Some economists predict that food prices may fall slightly over the next 12 months, but most experts expect continued volatility.
Looking ahead, Vos cautions: “There is no certainty about exactly how things will unfold, but overall there is no good news on the horizon.”
Read the original article, “Czy czeka nas dekada rekordowo wysokich cen żywności?“ in Polish.
(Option to read in English available with on-page Google Translate or similar.)
Learn more about IFPRI’s work on Food Prices