Anticipating the 2026/2027 El Niño shock in Papua New Guinea: An assessment of rural household vulnerability from the 2023 Rural Household Survey
– PNG is entering a period of elevated climate and food-security risk. The developing 2026 El Niño raises the likelihood of drought and agricultural stress, with frost an additional concern in the Highlands. Early reports of falling water levels and frost damage underscore the need for preparedness. Impacts may persist well into 2027, since historically El Niño drought conditions are typically followed by flooding from La Niña climate patterns.
– Households already rely on coping strategies when food and livelihoods are under pressure. The 2023 PNG RHS Report shows that households respond to shocks through mechanisms such as relying on wantok networks, consuming cheaper foods, and increasing labor supply. These strategies provide important short-term support but may be insufficient during severe or prolonged climate shock and can carry longer-term welfare costs.
– Agriculture is a key pathway from climate shocks to welfare. Own production provided 54 percent of food consumed, compared with 38 percent purchased and 7 percent from gifts or transfers. Drought or frost can reduce food availability while increasing market dependence and exposure to higher prices.
– Vulnerability is concentrated but extends beyond the Highlands. Highland areas warrant particular attention because drought and frost can coincide, but climate impacts can also affect other regions through agriculture, livestock, water, transport, and markets.
– Targeting should combine climate exposure with household vulnerability. Priority areas should reflect current climate conditions, drought and frost risk, agricultural conditions, food insecurity, livelihoods, assets, and market access, followed by rapid verification. Continued monitoring of food markets is essential. Because many households rely on purchased food, changes in food prices, market availability, and access should be monitored closely as El Niño conditions develop. Market monitoring can help identify emerging food-security pressures, inform targeting, and determine when and where assistance or other interventions should be activated.
– The immediate priority is anticipatory action. Government and development partners should prepare food assistance, agricultural and livestock protection, market monitoring, logistics, and delivery systems, backed by flexible financing that can be activated when agreed triggers are reached.
– The immediate priority is anticipatory action. Government and development partners should prepare food assistance, agricultural and livestock protection, market monitoring, logistics, and delivery systems, backed by flexible financing that can be activated when agreed triggers are reached.
– The 2023 PNG-RHS provides a foundation for improved climate-risk targeting. Linking household data with rainfall, temperature, drought, NDVI, elevation, agricultural, and market data can improve identification of areas where climate stress is most likely to translate into welfare losses and strengthen anticipatory action.
Authors
Andam, Kwaw S.; Amare, Mulubrhan; Kedir Jemal, Mekamu; Kanua, Matthew; Schmidt, Emily; Sikas-Iha, Helmtrude
Citation
Andam, Kwaw S.; Amare, Mulubrhan; Kedir Jemal, Mekamu; Kanua, Matthew; Schmidt, Emily; and Sikas-Iha, Helmtrude. 2026. Anticipating the 2026/2027 El Niño shock in Papua New Guinea: An assessment of rural household vulnerability from the 2023 Rural Household Survey. Papua New Guinea Working Paper. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/185490
Country/Region
Papua New Guinea
Keywords
Oceania; Capacity Building; El Niño; Shock; Anticipatory Action; Assessment; Rural Areas; Households; Vulnerability; Surveys; Climate Change
Access/Licence
Open Access
