Yumei Zhang

Options for methane mitigation in China’s rice sector

Methane emissions from rice cultivation in China reached 248 million tonnes of CO2equivalent (CO2eq), representing 26.6% of total agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2021. Model simulations indicate that, due to a declining population and reduced rice consumption, methane emissions could decline by 15.9% in 2035 and by 35.4% in 2060, even without improvements in emission intensity reduction, driven primarily by a reduction in the cultivated area. Nevertheless, methane emissions from paddy fields remain a critical challenge for China in meeting its 2060 carbon neutrality target. Simulation results show that by 2035 and 2060, improved water management practices could reduce emissions by 20.4% and 32.4%, respectively; enhanced fertilizer and organic matter management by 10.6% and 16.8%, respectively; use of improved rice varieties by 3.5% and 6.9%, respectively; and optimized cultivation and tillage practices by 4.1% and 8.2%, respectively. A comprehensive mitigation strategy that integrates all of these measures could achieve total emission reductions by 39.1% in 2035 and by 63.8% in 2060. Despite the potential, scaling up these technologies faces several challenges. Many are still at the pilot or demonstration stage, with their effectiveness constrained by regional environmental conditions, low adoption rates, and insufficient technical support. Moreover, limited awareness, high technical complexity, and high implementation costs further hinder widespread uptake. Overcoming these barriers requires robust policy support, institutional innovation, and coordinated deployment of integrated technologies to facilitate scalable and sustained adoption.

An environmentally-extended input-output analysis of province-level carbon emissions from energy use in China’s food system

The impact of extreme weather events on global soybean markets and China’s imports

China imports 65% of the globally traded soybeans to meet the demand for vegetable oil and animal feed, accounting for about 85% of the country’s total consumption. Extreme weather events (EWEs) significantly disrupt the global soybean market, with impacts transmitted to China. Using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) and a global agricultural partial equilibrium model, this research examines the effects of EWEs on global soybean production, trade, and China’s soybean‐related sectors. The findings indicate that single‐country EWEs have modest impacts, but simultaneous EWEs in multiple countries lead to global soybean production declines of 8.8%–17.1%, resulting in world price increases of 9.5%–33.2% and a decrease in China’s imports by 1.5%–20.7%. Soybean oil and meal prices in China would increase by 0.8%–16.7%, and meat prices would rise by 0.1%–3.9%. Consequently, consumer spending on soybeans and meat may increase by 10.7–174.1 billion yuan. China’s soybean stocks play a crucial role in mitigating the impacts of EWEs. Releasing stocks can limit soybean price hikes by up to 8.3% and meat price hikes by up to 1%, potentially lowering consumer spending on soybeans and meat by up to 37.4 billion yuan. Several measures are proposed to mitigate the impacts of EWEs and enhance resilience, including international cooperation for stabilising production, improving domestic stock and demand management, and building production capacity.