Publications and Datasets

Mapping supply chains, cost structure analysis, and investment priorities for food system transformation under conflict and climate stress in northern Nigeria

Artificial intelligence for decoding diet-gut microbiome-health interactions: A systematic scoping review

Diet is a major modifiable determinant of metabolic, immune, and inflammatory health, yet individual responses to the same dietary exposure often differ markedly because many effects are mediated by the gut microbiome. This systematic scoping review summarizes how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have been used to decode diet-gut microbiome-health interactions. Following PRISMA 2020 guidance, we searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, IEEE Xplore, Google Scholar, and citation lists for studies linking diet or nutrition, gut microbiome data, AI/ML methods, and health-related outcomes. Evidence was organized across biological mechanisms, data types, algorithm families, validation strategies, translational applications, and ethical constraints. Current evidence shows that tree-based ensembles, penalized regression, neural networks, autoencoders, graph learning, explainable AI, and emerging foundation-model approaches can improve phenotype prediction, multi-omics integration, microbial feature discovery, and personalized dietary response modeling. However, most studies remain limited by small or geographically restricted cohorts, heterogeneous sequencing and dietary assessment protocols, incomplete external validation, and weak experimental confirmation of model-derived mechanisms. We therefore propose a validation-to-translation framework that links leakage-free model development, cohort-external testing, explainable biological interpretation, prospective dietary intervention, privacy-preserving data sharing, and regulatory evaluation. AI is unlikely to replace mechanistic microbiome research, but it can substantially strengthen precision nutrition when embedded in transparent, reproducible, and clinically validated workflows.

What happens after the boom? Aquaculture, land use change, and smallholder resilience in Central Thailand

There has been a proliferation of research on Southeast Asian crop booms over the past 15 years. Most studies take place at the height of booms or examine the immediate trajectory of boom and subsequent ‘bust’. Few take a longer-term perspective. In this article we draw on the literature on crop booms and scholarship on ‘everyday’ forms of agrarian transformation to address the question of what happens to livelihoods and land use patterns after a crop boom has ended. We pose this question with reference to aquaculture (shrimp and fish farming) in Central Thailand, which has undergone a series of booms and busts since the 1980s. We address the question using integrated mixed methods (geospatial analysis of land use change, surveys of 455 farm households in 8 provinces, in-depth interviews with 40 farmers). The post-boom trajectory of aquaculture and associated livelihoods has been characterized by the attenuation of boom/bust cycles, continuous adaptation and diversification by producers in the face of successive overlapping shocks, and a surprising degree of continuity and persistence in land use, landholdings and livelihoods. This pattern reflects historical legacies including high levels of absentee landlordism and secure agricultural tenancy and land tenure. Intra-household division and reconsolidation of inherited land, the relatively high economic value and environmental plasticity of key species farmed, and Thailand's ‘middle-income trap’ status all contribute to the persistence of aquaculture after the boom.

Distance, prospects, and migration to towns and cities

The impact of spatial shifts of paddy fields on CH4 emissions in China, 1990–2020

A vision for equitable food, land and water systems by 2050

The world faces a defining moment. By 2050, global demand for food is expected to rise, climate shocks are expected to intensify, and youth populations in many regions are expected to grow rapidly. Food, land and water systems (FLWS) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are being pushed to their limits by the polycrisis — multiple interconnected global challenges whose combined impacts exceed the sum of their individual effects — deepening inequalities and threatening food security, socioeconomic stability and ecological resilience.3 The compounding challenges facing FLWS include climate change, strains on natural resources and profound demographic shifts, including a growing population marked by shifts toward both younger and older population structures, rapid urbanization and accelerating, increasingly diverse, and often gendered patterns of internal and international migration. Sudden-onset triggers (like natural disasters, conflicts or pandemics) interact with slow-onset stressors (like demographic shifts, rising temperatures and socioeconomic inequalities) to push established global systems into a state of disequilibrium and breakdown. A unique challenge of the polycrisis lies in the deep uncertainty it creates — FLWS actors at all scales are struggling to make decisions about a rapidly changing future.

Solutions for digital inclusion and digital innovations for inclusion by 2050

Food, land and water systems (FLWS) are transforming unevenly: off-farm work is expanding, youth employment in agriculture is falling in most regions, and women’s participation and earnings remain shaped by persistent regional gaps. Digital technologies will increasingly mediate information, finance, markets, advisory services and governance in these changing systems. Inclusive digital systems could lift approximately 30 million women out of extreme poverty and add around US$1.5 trillion to the global economy by 2050, but these gains depend on who can access, control, trust and shape digital systems. In South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, mobile-ownership and internet-use gaps remain slow to close. This chapter asks which digital inclusion strategies can support gender and intersectional equality in FLWS by 2050, and under what conditions. It draws on chapter 1 projections to frame future priorities, while recognizing that comparable longterm, gender-disaggregated digital agriculture projections remain limited. This chapter is situated within the report’s wider framing of the polycrisis, set out in the introduction along with the report’s conceptual framing. This chapter focuses specifically on how digitalization may either reinforce exclusion or expand agency in future FLWS.

Looking ahead: gender and inclusion in food, land and water systems in 2050

Foresight research has not fully explored gender equality as a possible outcome of changes in FLWS over time, nor has it examined how gender inequalities hinder the transformation of these systems. Current trends suggest that only marginal progress is being made to address gender inequalities in food, land and water systems (FLWS), and this lack of progress will make it more difficult for women to participate in, benefit from and contribute meaningfully to FLWS transformation into the future. Young people also face considerable barriers to full participation in FLWS, such as lack of access to land and other resources, and limited economic opportunities. While progress has been real, it remains incremental because most interventions in FLWS have focused on women’s access to resources, services and participation, while insufficient attention has been paid to underlying structural factors, such as biases in institutions, unequal governance and decision-making structures and restrictive social norms that perpetuate inequalities. Progress is also uneven. While advancements are being made in some areas, such as closing the gender digital divide6 and integrating gender into the design of policies and interventions, other trends, such as intensifying climate change and conflict proliferation are eroding progress or even exacerbating inequalities. Moreover, these general trends and patterns vary both across and within regions and backsliding on progress toward gender equality can occur, particularly following major geopolitical shifts and global shocks — as is currently evident in the ongoing polycrisis. This chapter explores key drivers of gender (in)equality and youth inclusion in FLWS to 2050 by region under different scenarios, considering optimistic, pessimistic and business-as-usual trends in terms of demographic shifts and economic growth, drawing on historical trends over the past 20 years. Unequal outcomes, such as gender-related earnings gaps, reflect unequal power relations embedded within FLWS that also shape the process of agricultural transformation. While power relations are not directly observed in the projections presented in this chapter, these underlying and evolving dynamics also determine the degree to which it is possible to achieve gender parity by 2050.

Solutions for gender equality in land and water access, rights and governance within inclusive and resilient food, land and water systems

Food, land and water systems (FLWS) embed profound gender and social inequalities, including in terms of who has rights to the essential elements of land and water. These inequalities are not incidental, but rather systemic expressions of unequal power relations that shape who controls resources, whose knowledge is recognized, and whose voice is heard in FLWS governance. This chapter aims to identify effective strategies, approaches and actions, referred to as solutions, that can strengthen women’s access and rights to land (including forests and rangelands) and water, to chart more equitable, sustainable and resilient pathways for FLWS. Specifically, we ask: (1) What evidence-based solutions can support women’s access and rights to land and water, as well as their full and effective participation in land and water governance? (2) Under what conditions are these solutions effective? And (3) How can research, policies, investments and practice support the adaptation, implementation and scaling of these solutions? To begin, we provide a brief background on gender and intersectional equality related to land, water and their governance. Drawing on evidence from diverse contexts, we then outline solutions for addressing gender and intersectional inequalities and the conditions under which these solutions have been effective. Finally, we provide recommendations to adapt, implement and scale these solutions.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: August 2026

This report analyzes trends in the prices, availability, and market conditions of essential commodities across Sudan in August 2026, drawing on trader surveys and market monitoring data. Prices for most food commodities, fuel, and labor continued to rise, while perceptions of commodity availability generally declined for staple foods, oilseeds, and some agricultural inputs, with substantial variation across states. The report also highlights increasing supply chain and financial constraints among merchants, persistent demand challenges, and a cautious business outlook, despite most traders expecting to continue operating under current market conditions. -Abstract generated by Copilot AI 2.2

Review of evidence on the design and impact of agricultural insurance for smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries

Agricultural insurance has long been promoted as a tool to help smallholder farmers manage production and market risks, yet affordable, well-functioning coverage has proven difficult to deliver at scale. This paper reviews peer-reviewed evidence on the design, implementation, and impacts of agricultural insurance in low- and middle-income countries, with a focus on innovations that have emerged since early indemnity-based multi-peril crop insurance programs gave way to index-based and hybrid approaches. It synthesizes findings on ex ante and ex post impacts, on design features that shape cost, basis risk, and payment timing, and on distribution channels and inclusion of women and low-income households. The review finds that insurance can meaningfully protect household consumption and assets after shocks and encourage productive investment beforehand, but that these benefits depend heavily on accurate loss assessment, adequate coverage size, and trust built through distribution partners. The paper concludes with operational recommendations for policymakers and practitioners on product design, subsidies, and distribution, and identifies priority evidence gaps, including the optimal design of subsidies and insurance's potential to address non-weather-related risks.

The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala

International migration affects labor supply, production patterns, and external income flows in origin countries, yet our understanding of its economy-wide and distributional consequences remains limited, particularly with regard to the role of return migration. This study integrates detailed microdata on migrant profiles into a general equilibrium model applied to Guatemala to examine how emigration and return migration affect macroeconomic performance, sectoral dynamics, and household welfare. We simulate three scenarios: a reference scenario reflecting recent-historical emigration patterns (MIG-0), a reduced-emigration scenario (MIG-1), and a net-return migration scenario (MIG-2), capturing recent shifts in emigration and return flows by skill level. Results reveal trade-offs between aggregate economic performance and distributional impacts across households. Compared to a baseline economy with no mobility, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises modestly under the reference scenario (+0.2 percent) and by additional 0.3–0.5 percentage points under the reduced-emigration and net-return scenarios, driven by expanded labor supply from returnees and currency depreciation. Non-agro-processing manufacturing shows the largest expansion (up to 1.8 percent), reflecting its strong labor-absorption potential. Household welfare, especially among remittance-dependent households, is highly sensitive to these flows, with income and consumption declining under the two counterfactual migration scenarios. These findings underscore the need for policies that facilitate returnee reintegration and strengthen social protection for remittance-dependent households, ensuring that the macroeconomic gains from migration adjustments translate into equitable welfare improvements.

After quantification: Insights from India’s Soil Health Card scheme

As the concept of soil health gains prominence, it becomes increasingly important to examine how states design and implement soil health policies. Does soil health offer a novel pathway to enact and legitimize institutional changes toward more sustainable farming systems, or does it risk becoming another neologism that preserves status quo, productivist agriculture? We explore these questions through an analysis of one of the most ambitious state-led initiatives organized around soil health: India’s Soil Health Card (SHC) scheme. The SHC scheme seeks to provide every farmer in the country with bi-annual soil test reports, based on the assumption that improved information will encourage more judicious use of fertilizers and pesticides. The assumption reflects a broader emphasis within the agricultural sciences on the importance of quantifying soil health. Drawing on government documents and farmer perception studies (n = 38), we find that although farmers view the cards positively, they make few substantive changes to their farming practices. As an illustrative case, India’s grand SHC scheme shows that quantification alone is insufficient and could even dampen momentum for transformative policy reforms. Effective and durable change lies in pairing efforts to quantify soil health with (a) plural epistemic approaches to knowledge production, (b) participatory models for knowledge dissemination, and (c) structural reforms in the agri-food system that address issues around land tenure and subsidies.

Hcropland30: A hybrid 30-m global cropland map generated by leveraging global land cover products and Landsat data via deep learning

Integrated hydrological and economic assessment of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change

Demands for water, energy, and food are rapidly increasing in many low- and middle-income countries, driving the development of large-scale hydropower and irrigation projects. As climate change poses major risks and uncertainties for large-scale infrastructure investments, it is essential to stress-test infrastructure development plans to address these challenges and strengthen resilience. The Nile is one of the world’s longest rivers, draining approximately 10% of Africa’s land surface; Sudan accounts for around 40% of the basin area, and several new large hydropower and irrigation infrastructure projects are planned. We develop an integrated analytical framework for the Nile River system, utilizing 16 climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 6 and hydrological, river system, and Computable General Equilibrium models to evaluate the biophysical and economic impacts of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change. The results indicate a projected increase in the naturalized streamflow of the Nile by 2050 due to climate change. A phased hydropower and irrigation development strategy in Sudan – targeting a total of 1,500 MW of hydropower capacity and approximately one million hectares of irrigated wheat – is projected to increase annual hydropower generation by up to 8.1 TWh and expand total wheat area by 283% by 2050. These developments increase the undiscounted national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during 2030–2050 by US$ 0.1 to 0.4 billion per year, with larger increases occurring under high economic growth pathways. This research highlights the interconnected nature of climate change, water resource development, and economic performance, underscoring the importance of integrated assessment in informing investment decisions.

Persistent BMI and height deficits reflect structural and geographic inequities among adolescent girls in Nepal

Adolescence is a period of rapid growth; however, many adolescent girls experience suboptimal growth trajectories. This longitudinal study assessed changes in body mass index (BMI) and linear growth and associated factors among Nepali adolescent girls from 2017-2019. We analysed panel data from three waves (2017 [n=770], 2018 [n=682] and 2019 [n=618]) of never-married and non-pregnant girls aged 10-19 years in 2017. BMI-for-age difference (BMI-AD) and height-for-age difference (HAD), indicating deviation from WHO age- and sex-specific medians, were used to assess change over time. BMI-AD and conditional growth (calculated as residuals from regressions of 2018/2019 HAD on prior HAD and age) were used in the regression analyses to identify associated factors. Conditional growth reflects linear growth above or below what would be expected, based on prior height and age. We used descriptive statistics to assess change, and linear mixed-effects and ordinary least squares regression to identify factors associated with BMI-AD and conditional growth, respectively. Findings confirmed that girls consistently had lower BMI (-1.78kg/m2, -1.60kg/m2 and –1.48kg/m2 respectively in 2017, 2018, 2019) and height relative to the WHO median for their age and sex (-10.3cm, -10.2cm and -9.9cm respectively in 2017, 2018, 2019), with negligible improvements. Factors associated with higher BMI-AD were post-menarche status (0.98kg/m2, 95% CI 0.72, 1.25), higher education (0.11kg/m2, 95% CI 0.01, 0.21), and disadvantaged caste/ethnicity (0.48kg/m2, 95% CI 0.14, 0.83); in contrast, older age (-0.17kg/m2, 95% CI -0.27, -0.07), food insecurity (-0.31kg/m2, 95% CI -0.57, -0.06), and terai (-0.93kg/m2, 95% CI -1.45, -0.40) or hill (-0.57kg/m2, 95% CI -1.06, -0.08) residence were associated with lower BMI-AD. For conditional linear growth, older age (0.19cm, 95% CI 0.14, 0.24 for 2018; 0.16cm, 95% CI 0.11, 0.21 for 2019) and underweight (0.25cm, 95% CI 0.10, 0.40 for 2018) predicted higher gains than expected given their prior height and age, whereas post-menarche status (-0.94cm, 95% CI -1.16, -0.72 for 2018; -1.03cm, 95% CI -1.25, -0.82 for 2019) and terai (-0.35cm, 95% CI -0.62, -0.08 for 2018; -0.31cm, 95% CI -0.59, -0.03 for 2019) hill (-0.25cm, 95% CI -0.48, -0.02 for 2019) residence predicted lower growth than expected given their prior height and age. Findings highlight the need to address age-related nutrition, education, food insecurity, and geographic disparities to support healthy growth.

Inter‐group cooperation and conflict. Experimental evidence from Yemen

The impact of public price information on farm incomes: Lessons from the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange

Inadequate energy and micronutrient intakes across Filipino population groups: Findings from the 2021 Expanded National Nutrition Survey

Background Diet-related challenges and food insecurity are experienced by many Filipinos, underscoring the need for evidence-based interventions to improve diet quality and prevent malnutrition. Objectives The study aimed to evaluate the usual energy and nutrient intakes and the probability of inadequate micronutrient intake across different population groups in the Philippines. Methods The 2021 Expanded National Nutrition Survey was a nationally representative survey conducted in the Philippines; it assessed dietary intake using a quantitative 24-h dietary recall, with a repeated recall among 50% of participants on nonconsecutive days. Usual intakes, probability of inadequate intake (PII) for micronutrients, and mean probability of inadequacy (MPI) for 11 micronutrients were estimated using the National Cancer Institute method among children under-5 (U5, n = 4930), school-aged children (SAC; 6–9 y, n = 8116), adolescents (10–19 y, n = 15,394), adults (20–59 y, n = 29,391), elderly (>60 y, n = 9170), nonpregnant/nonlactating women of reproductive age (NPNL-WRA; 15–49 y, n = 15,037), pregnant females (n = 436), and lactating females (n = 1354). Results Mean energy intake ranged from 699 kcal/d in U5 to 1500 kcal/d in adults and was below recommendations across all populations. Carbohydrates contributed 61% of energy in U5 and 73% in adults and lactating females. Protein contributed 12% to 14% and fat 13% to 26% across all groups. High PII (>75%) for calcium, zinc, vitamin C, riboflavin, iron, thiamine, and folate was observed in most groups, except for lower inadequacies in thiamine, folate, vitamin B6, and vitamin B12 among U5 and SAC. MPI increased with age, from 59.5% in U5 to 83.3% in lactating females and was higher among groups from food-insecure households. Conclusions Reported energy intake was below recommendations in most groups. Intake of many micronutrients was inadequate, particularly among NPNL-WRA, pregnant, and lactating women, highlighting the urgent need for targeted interventions to improve dietary quality, micronutrient intake, and food security among vulnerable populations.

Nutrition sensitive poverty and its correlates in Papua New Guinea: Incorporating healthy diet targets into poverty measurement

As the international development community increasingly prioritizes nutrition outcomes, incorporating healthy diets into poverty measurements has important implications for what it means to be poor. Particularly for low- and middle-income countries dependent on domestic agriculture and low-cost food imports, evaluating the access to healthy diets is crucial to meeting food security goals. This paper provides the most expansive poverty assessment using the cost of basic needs approach in Papua New Guinea (PNG) in 15 years. In doing so, we compare a standard cost of basic needs poverty line where the food poverty line is defined by modest diets aligned with consumption patterns that meet a dietary energy (calorie) threshold; and a healthy diet food poverty line that meets both the dietary energy threshold and recommended nutrition targets. Results suggest that 43% of sample individuals live below the standard cost of basic needs poverty line. An additional 21% of sample individuals (64%) live below the healthy diet poverty line due to the relatively high cost of nutrient-dense foods in PNG. Multivariate regression analysis underscores the importance of household income diversification, whether via non-farm enterprise ownership or migrant remittances. Results reflect the unique challenges characterized by PNG’s remote landscape and lack of rural services, amplifying the need to improve rural-urban linkages that promote market access, educational attainment, and higher value employment opportunities.

Where does decentralised green nitrogen fit in Africa’s fertiliser resilience strategy?

Africa faces recurrent fertiliser shocks because much of its nitrogen supply depends on imported products, fossil energy, and exposed trade routes, while production, product mix, logistics, and farm-gate demand remain poorly aligned. Decentralised green nitrogen production – defined as small-scale nitrogen fertilizer synthesis powered by renewable electricity – could make a major contribution to addressing these challenge, but to go to scale it will need to lower delivered costs, improve farm returns, reach farmers with responsive crops, and manage product, safety, resource, and governance risks. This opinion piece argues for an Africa-wide prioritisation assessment that compares potential decentralised production with imports, regional trade, larger low-emission plants, blending, logistics, and advisory support. The goal is to identify intervention bundles that deliver the right nitrogen product to the right farmers at the right cost for the coming decades.

In the name of love: Policy imitation, political incentives, and local economic growth

Buyers' response to third-party quality certification: Theory and evidence from Ethiopian wheat traders

When quality attributes of a product are not directly observable, third-party certification (TPC) enables buyers to distinguish between quality levels and reward sellers accordingly. We study the adoption of TPC by traders in smallholder-based agricultural value chains in low-income countries, where traders aggregate products from many small-scale producers before selling in bulk to downstream processors. In this context, the introduction of TPC services has oftentimes failed. We develop a theoretical model identifying how different market conditions affect traders' choice to purchase certified output from farmers. Next, using a novel lab-in-the-field experiment with Ethiopian wheat traders, we examine the model's predictions. Traders’ willingness to specialize in certified output increases with the share of certified wheat in the market, and this effect is stronger in larger markets. However, we find that traders do not optimally respond to variation in the quality of uncertified wheat in the market. We also analyze conditions where traders deviate from optimal behavior and discuss implications for research and policy making to promote TPC in smallholder-based value-chains. JEL Codes: Q13; D22; O13; C93

Rural land rental markets in developing countries: Can survey design innovations improve land market participation statistics?

A longstanding puzzle in the African land rental market literature is the often-observed discrepancy between the number of tenants (renters-in) and the much smaller number of landlords (renters-out) in survey data. If this discrepancy derives from systematic biases in survey data responses on rental market participation, then the existing body of survey-based empirical work on land rental markets impacts may be fundamentally flawed. To examine this issue, we implemented two survey experiments. First, we tested the hypothesis that some categories of rented land are underreported because enumerators and respondents focus primarily on parcels directly managed or cultivated by the household. A random subset of respondents received a priming nudge reminding them to account for all land, including rented- or sharecropped-in and rented- or sharecropped-out parcels. Second, we tested whether households underreport rented- or sharecropped-out land due to reluctance to disclose activities that may carry social or institutional repercussions, using a double-list experiment to infer true rates of participation. Interestingly, our results indicate a significant underreporting of both renting-in and renting-out land but arising through different mechanisms. The priming nudge increased reports of renting-/sharecropping-in by 4 percentage points (equivalent to 13% of landlords in the sample) but had negligible effects on reported renting-/sharecropping-out. By contrast, the list experiment suggests that the true share of renting-out households is about 15%: much higher than the 3% in parcel-roster responses. These results underscore the need for improved survey methods to accurately observe land rental market participation and evaluate its impact.

Inflammation and micronutrient status of children and adolescents in 12 countries are only weakly associated: The BRINDA Project

Women’s empowerment, crop productivity, and food security: Nationally representative panel data analysis in Malawi

Global outlook of animal sourced-food systems to 2050

Key Messages – Global demand for ASF will continue to grow, particularly in low- and middle-income regions. ASF demand is projected to increase by around 30% between 2025 and 2050, with the largest increases occurring in South Asia, West and Central Africa, and East and Southern Africa. Rising populations and incomes will remain the primary drivers of this growth, increasing pressure on food systems to deliver affordable and nutritious animal-source foods. – Productivity growth will be essential to meeting future demand sustainably. Nearly two-thirds of projected production growth is expected to come from improvements in productivity rather than increases in animal numbers. This highlights the critical role of technological innovation and transfer (particularly to low-income countries), improved genetics, animal health services, feed efficiency, and better farm management practices. Strengthening agricultural research and development, extension services, veterinary systems, and access to improved technologies will be essential to increasing production while limiting pressure on natural resources. – Climate change will increasingly shape the future of animal food systems. Climate-related impacts on feed availability and crop productivity are expected to intensify, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. While the projections presented in this study only include the partial indirect impact of climate change on ASF, other work (see Thornton et al. 2022, Godde 2021) has shown that climate change can have large impacts on ASF through reduced feed intake, heat stress and disease. – Growing demand will outpace production in several regions, increasing import dependence. While production is projected to increase substantially, self-sufficiency declines in most regions. West and Central Africa and East and Southern Africa experience particularly large reductions in their ability to meet domestic demand, resulting in higher import requirements.

Modernizing Bangladesh's social protection system: Priorities for greater effectiveness, inclusion, and resilience

Bangladesh has made substantial progress in reducing poverty and improving human development, with social protection playing an important role in protecting vulnerable households and strengthening human capital. The Government has demonstrated a strong commitment to social protection, particularly through the adoption of the National Social Security Strategy (NSSS) in 2015 and subsequent efforts to streamline and consolidate programs. Despite this progress, the social protection system faces significant challenges. It remains fragmented across numerous programs and ministries; targeting errors continue to exclude many vulnerable households while including others with less need; and benefit levels are often insufficient to provide meaningful protection against poverty, vulnerability, and shocks. A substantial share of social protection spending is also allocated to programs that do not primarily benefit the poor, while many vulnerable households remain inadequately covered. Addressing these gaps is becoming increasingly important as Bangladesh confronts rising living costs, slower economic growth, widening inequalities, and more frequent economic and climate-related shocks. Bangladesh now has an opportunity to modernize its social protection system around a more coherent, lifecycle- and vulnerability-based framework. Social protection should move beyond a narrow focus on poverty reduction to address risks and vulnerabilities across the lifecycle— including maternal and early childhood needs; nutritional and educational deprivation among school-age children; employment risks during the working years; disability; and income insecurity in old age. Investments in early childhood, particularly during the first 1,000 days of life, can yield substantial long-term benefits for nutrition, health, learning, and productivity. The system should respond more effectively to rising inequality, urban vulnerability, population ageing, and health-related shocks. This will require strengthening social assistance while progressively developing complementary social insurance mechanisms, including unemployment protection, employment injury insurance, maternity benefits, health protection, and contributory pension schemes. Overall, Bangladesh’s next phase of social protection reform should focus not simply on spending more, but on spending smarter—building a coherent, inclusive, adequate, life-cycle-oriented, and shock-responsive system that protects households from both persistent poverty and emerging vulnerabilities.

Cooperation and the management of local common resources in remote rural communities

It is widely recognized that local management of common pool resources can be more efficient and more effective than private markets or top-down government management, especially in remote rural communities in which the institutions may be weak or prone to elite capture. In this paper, we explore the propensity for cooperation in the management of local common resources by introducing a variant of a public goods game among remote rural communities in the state of Odisha, in eastern India. We explore various patterns of cooperation, including free riding behaviour, unconditional cooperation and conditional cooperation, in which individuals’ propensity toward cooperation is tied to their beliefs about the level of cooperation among their peers. We find that a significant portion of our sample fall into this latter category, but also that their expectations about the level of contributions among their peers are somewhat malleable. JEL classification: Q32, Q12, C72

Procrastination and psychosocial drivers of farmers’ planned and actual adoption of biofortified crop varieties

This chapter examines the relationship between the present bias, psychological barriers procrastination, technology information nudges, and their combined influence on the intentions and actual uptake of biofortified crops. It uses an information field experiment with 320 sweetpotato farmers in Kenya. Nudges were in the form of information on agronomy and crop biofortification process. The chapter draws on the theory of planned behaviour, model-based recursive partitioning using classification and random forest-based regression trees. Findings show nuanced relationship in intentions and adoption with agronomic and biofortification information nudges depending on the interaction of subjective norms, agency, past behaviour, and unintentional procrastination. It discusses the implications of promoting biofortified crops.

2025 IFPRI audited financial statements

We have audited the financial statement of International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), which comprise the statements of financial position as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, the related statements of activities, functional expenses, changes in net assets and cash flows for the years then ended, and the related notes to the financial statements.

2025 IFPRI A-133 (Uniform guide)

We have audited the financial statement of International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), which comprise the statements of financial position as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, the related statements of activities, functional expenses, changes in net assets and cash flows for the years then ended, and the related notes to the financial statements.

Beyond direct benefits: Anchor enterprise models and local economic development in Malawi

This paper examines how anchor enterprises contribute to local economic development in Malawi. It finds that most of the income injected into local economies through these enterprises circulates locally, generating substantial spillover benefits beyond those directly linked to the enterprises. However, much of this spending passes through local businesses that source goods and inputs from outside the area, limiting the extent to which increased demand translates into local production, service provision, and employment. The findings highlight that broad-based local economic development depends not only on who receives income and how much they receive, but also on how that income is spent. Achieving broader development gains may require complementary investments in local businesses, finance, processing, infrastructure, supply chains, and skills to strengthen local supply responses.

Informing reconsideration of new breeding technique (NBT) regulation in South Africa – Need for a modernised regulatory approach

Advances in genome editing are transforming plant breeding globally, prompting regulators around the world to reconsider how New Breeding Techniques (NBTs) should be regulated. In response to these developments, researchers from BFAP, the ARC and IFPRI collaborated on a study examining South Africa’s current regulatory approach to NBTs and the potential implications for agricultural innovation, competitiveness, trade and food security. The study reviews international regulatory developments, assesses global innovation trends, and evaluates the potential implications of future access to NBT-derived technologies for South African agriculture. The findings suggest that South Africa’s current regulatory approach may increasingly constrain access to emerging breeding innovations and could limit participation by public research institutions, universities and smaller technology developers. Scenario modelling indicates that access to NBT-derived technologies could contribute to improved productivity, enhanced climate resilience, stronger export competitiveness and lower food prices over the longer term. At the same time, recent engagement with regulators suggests growing recognition that the regulatory treatment of NBTs may warrant further consideration as scientific understanding and international regulatory practice continue to evolve. While the report does not advocate a specific regulatory model or reduced biosafety standards, it highlights the importance of ongoing discussion around how South Africa can balance robust oversight with continued innovation, competitiveness and food security.

Quality-seed supply and resilient sourcing of off-farm seeds under conflicts and weather shocks: Insights from rice farmers in Myanmar

The acquisition of rice seeds from off-farm sources (off-farm seeds) can be beneficial for maintaining and raising productivity in Myanmar, where the use of off-farm rice seeds is relatively common. Identifying factors that can raise farmers’ resilience in acquiring off-farm seeds is potentially important in Myanmar and similar country contexts, where persistent and recurring shocks such as conflicts and weather events can disrupt such acquisition. This study addresses an important knowledge gap by examining the potential role of Myanmar’s rice seed sector in maintaining resilient access to off-farm seeds. We use unique three-year panel data on monsoon-sea-son rice producers in Myanmar, combined with detailed spatial data on violent events, various measures of weather shocks, information on spatial variation in local and regional seed production capacity compiled from secondary sources, and an innovative methodology based on instrumental variables and machine-learning approaches. Our findings suggest that using off-farm seeds generally leads to higher rice yields in the monsoon season, particularly if farmers used re-cycled seeds during the previous monsoon season. This result holds at the national level, as well as within the major rice-producing agroecological zones (AEZs), namely, the Delta and Dry Zone. During the study period (2021–2023), the use of off-farm seeds declined overall and was negatively associated with rainfall and temperature shocks during the previous monsoon season, floods during the late dry season, and fatal violent events during the dry season. However, these negative effects were largely mitigated in townships hosting seed farms or research farms that specialize in early-generation seeds (EGS) of rice, and in states with higher state-level production of certified rice seeds, relative to estimated in-state seed use. While the dominant types of shocks varied across AEZs and years, the mitigating effects of government seed or research farms and state-level production of certified seeds remained robust throughout. Overall, the results indicate that continued efforts to expand local and regional EGS production, alongside stronger certified seed systems, can strengthen smallholders’ resilience in off-farm seed use during conflicts and weather shocks.

Myanmar monthly food price report – August 2026

KEY HIGHLIGHTS: – Rice prices increased substantially in August 2026, with the national average rising by 5.2 percent monthon-month and 14.9 percent year-on-year. Regional price disparities persisted, reflecting differences in production conditions, market access, and transportation costs. The country-wide increase in retail rice prices was reportedly associated with flood-related concerns, supply disruptions, and transportation difficulties. – Export crop prices showed mixed movements. Maize prices declined month-on-month but remained substantially above year-earlier levels, while black gram and pigeon pea prices also remained elevated year-on-year. Green gram prices declined while chickpea prices increased. Vegetable prices generally increased in August. Chili and onion prices rose sharply, supported by constrained supplies and continued export demand, while garlic prices increased following a seasonal pattern. Potato prices rose more moderately. – Most animal-sourced food prices remained substantially above year-earlier levels. Chicken, eggs, mutton, beef, and fish prices increased year-on-year, with mutton prices remaining at record highs. In contrast, pig prices declined both month-on-month and year-on-year amid reports of swine disease and weaker pork demand in Yangon. Reports of livestock disease affecting poultry, pigs, and cattle also raised broader animal health concerns. – The conflict in Iran has led to a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a major transit route for global oil and fertilizer trade — while fighting has also escalated in the Red Sea, another key shipping corridor. Together, these disruptions are raising concerns for Myanmar's agrifood system, which depends heavily on fuel for transportation, irrigation, mechanization, and processing. Fertilizer prices also remain substantially above last year’s levels, possibly reducing the profitability of fertilizer use and leading to lower application rates and agricultural production. – Flooding intensified during August, particularly in major rice-producing areas of Ayeyarwady and Sagaing. Flooding reportedly inundated approximately 97,000 acres in Ayeyarwady and affected more than 10,000 acres of paddy and other cropland in Sagaing. Meanwhile, strengthening El Niño conditions could bring additional risks from irregular rainfall, higher temperatures, and drought, potentially affecting agricultural production and food supply. – The outlook for Myanmar food prices will remain influenced by export demand, border trade conditions, input costs, and weather-related risks. Concerns over pulses production in India could support demand for Myanmar’s black gram and pigeon pea, while softer Chinese demand for green gram remains a concern. Changes in Thailand’s maize import arrangements and continued volatility in border trade stations could also affect agricultural market flows and will be important to monitor in the coming months.

Assessing the local economy-wide impacts of an anchor enterprise in rural Malawi: Evidence from Tropha Estates' 2025 operations in TA Mtwalo

Smallholder-centered agricultural strategies have had limited success in Malawi, prompting interest in anchor-enterprise models in which agribusinesses partner with surrounding smallholder farmers. This note examines whether the benefits of one such anchor enterprise — Tropha Estates, a Growth Poles Project partner that sources chili from smallholder farmers in Traditional Authority Mtwalo — reach beyond the farmers and workers it engages directly. Using a local economy-wide impact evaluation (LEWIE) model calibrated on 2025 household and business survey data together with firm administrative records, we trace the full circuit of income that Tropha's local spending sets in motion. Tropha's 2025 injection of roughly MWK 1.28 billion — MWK 121 million in outgrower payments and MWK 1,160 million in wages — generated an estimated MWK 2.54 billion in real household income across the zone of influence (95% CI: 2.41–2.66), corresponding to a real income multiplier of 1.98. In other words, for every kwacha Tropha spent locally, a further MWK 0.98 of real income was created as that spending circulated through local markets, amounting to roughly MWK 1.26 billion in secondary or spillover income. Roughly 47 percent of this spillover accrued to households with no direct contractual relationship with the enterprise, reaching them through the wages and profits of local businesses that serve the Tropha workforce and outgrowers. The poorest 40 percent of households captured about 38 percent of the secondary income (MWK 480.7 million). Tropha’s operations and spending also supported approximately 11,950 additional labor days beyond direct employment at Kaweche Estate. These gains came with only moderate price pressure: Tropha's operations raise non-tradable prices by approximately 7.8 percent and local wages by 4.9 percent. The multiplier is large and statistically robust, falling only to 1.79 under the most conservative high-leakage assumption and otherwise close to the central estimate of 1.98. Its comparatively high level reflects the specific conditions of the TA Mtwalo ZOI in northern Malawi: a relatively dense local market structure, low leakage rates, and labor-intensive chili production that distributes income broadly. Ex-ante simulations map the levers available to Tropha and its partners to amplify its local economic impact further. Of the six scenarios modeled, irrigation-led productivity gains generate the highest total income relative to the direct (in this case, production) shock (MWK 82.4 million total from MWK 36.1 million direct), followed by a 50 percent chili price increase (MWK 116.0 million total from MWK 60.8 million direct impact on chili production value). Restored local procurement and the capital injection direct the highest shares of income gains to non-Tropha households (92 percent each), while seasonal wage employment expansion also reaches a substantial non-Tropha share (53 percent) — compared with 34–35 percent for the two agricultural channel simulations. The highest return on direct income shock comes from supply-side productivity investment in the tradable agricultural sector, which raises real output without generating the non-tradable price pressure of demand-side injections. Investments in local market infrastructure, business capacity, and supply-chain logistics could simultaneously amplify income gains and reduce leakage.

Two pathways to women’s agency: Rights-based mobilization and livelihoods-based collectives in rural India – Formative case studies from Bihar and Chhattisgarh, India

Women’s effective leadership and representation are central to just and resilient agrifood systems, yet there remains a “dramatic imbalance” between women’s extensive contributions to agrifood systems and their leadership and decision-making power (Gerli 2015). Advancing women’s leadership, however, requires evidence on what shapes women’s leadership and what helps to sustain it, and this evidence base remains fragmented across geographies, sectors, and organizational types. Much of the existing evidence relies on narrow, quantitative indicators — such as counts of women in leadership positions — that capture little about the quality of leadership, the collective or informal forms it can take, or the pathways and trade-offs involved. This note presents two formative, qualitative case studies conducted as part of a broader effort by the CGIAR Gender Equality and Inclusion Accelerator to build comparable, cross-context evidence on women’s leadership in agrifood systems (see Elias et al. 2025). The two studies — one with a rights-based labour collective in Bihar and one with women’s self-help groups in Chhattisgarh — were designed around a shared set of research questions so that their findings could speak to each other, even though the organizational forms, histories, and contexts they examine differ substantially.

Mapping the policy landscape for climate action in Ethiopia's agrifood systems

Ethiopia has made important policy commitments to address climate change in agriculture and food systems, yet challenges remain in translating these commitments into coordinated, inclusive action. This study examines Ethiopia’s climate change institutional landscape, with a particular focus on the integration of gender and nutrition considerations. Drawing on the Net-Map methodology and a participatory stakeholder mapping workshop involving government agencies, donors, nongovernmental organizations, research institutions, and private sector actors, the study maps the institutional relationships shaping climate action. Findings reveal a highly centralized network, with authority concentrated in the Prime Minister’s Office, financial flows largely controlled by the Ministry of Finance, and information and advisory exchanges dominated by the Ministry of Agriculture. While several institutions play influential roles in shaping climate action, coordination across sectors is limited. Despite the proliferation of gender- and nutrition-related initiatives, their implementation is fragmented and weakly connected to climate policy processes. The findings point to the need for stronger cross-sectoral coordination, more inclusive governance arrangements, and greater institutional support for actors working at the intersection of climate change, gender, and nutrition.

Why DO retail chains contract with so few farmers?

Introduction: Contract farming and development

Routledge handbook of contract farming and development

New institutional economics perspectives on contract farming

Contracts in the real world

Accessing agricultural credit through Kisan Credit Cards: Patterns of use, transaction costs, and institutional barriers in eastern India

Game of drones: On the cusp of a revolution in Indian agriculture

Drones are being used to spray nutrients, and also herbicides and pesticides across both small and large holdings in Indian agriculture. The use is still small and geographically confined but it is spreading rapidly, driven by an informal sector which is innovative in adaption and use.

The effects of a multifaceted graduation model on intra-household dynamics: Experimental evidence from Ethiopia

We provide evidence around the effectiveness of a gender-sensitive graduation model in shifting intrahousehold dynamics and empowering women in rural Ethiopia, drawing on a multi-arm cluster randomized trial. The bundled intervention centered around village economic and social associations, nurturing care groups, men’s groups, and livelihood grants; one arm also provided a monthly cash transfer for pregnant and lactating women. Following two and a half years of implementation, we find evidence of increased savings for both men and women, a reduced gender gap in access to emergency funds, increased men’s participation in chores and childcare, and increased men’s and women’s knowledge of infant and young child feeding practices. The results also show that the interventions increased women’s decision-making power and shifted gender norms around intimate partner violence, but only in the arm receiving the maternal cash transfer. These results suggest that multifaceted interventions targeting multiple constraints are promising tools for transforming traditional gender norms and enhancing women’s agency.

Agricultural inputs & harvest among fruit producers in rural Sri Lanka: Insights from a baseline survey of the Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH) end-to-end evaluation

Repeated crises in Sri Lanka – the COVID-19 pandemic, economic crisis, and climate-related disruptions – have strained food systems and narrowed household access to nutritious foods, pushing many toward cheaper and more calorie-dense alternatives. These pressures have compounded an ongoing nutrition transition, in which rising consumption of ultra-processed foods coexists with persistent micronutrient deficiencies and increasing rates of overweight and obesity. Fruit and vegetables (F&V) are key sources of vitamins, minerals, dietary fiber, and phytochemicals, and adequate intake contributes to the reduction of both micronutrient deficiency and diet-related chronic diseases. However, intake of fruit and vegetables (F&V) falls well short of international and national recommendations: mean consumption in rural agricultural communities is approximately 118 (±117) grams of vegetables and 71 (±243) grams of fruit per person per day, against the minimum of 400 grams per person per day according to the World Health Organization (WHO) and Sri Lanka's Food Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDG). What farmers grow, their production practices, how much they harvest, and whether produce enters household consumption or local markets all shape the acceptability and availability of F&V at the household and community levels, making production data a necessary input for understanding and addressing low intake. This brief follows a companion brief on vegetable production and applies the same framing to fruit. The CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition (BDN), previously the Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH) initiative, integrates supply-side, demand-side, and food environment interventions across the food system. This brief presents baseline findings on fruit production from rural farming households enrolled in the FRESH end-to-end evaluation in Sri Lanka, documenting fruit crops grown, inputs used, pre-harvest losses, yields, and market orientation to inform supply-side intervention design and establish a benchmark for evaluation.

Characteristics and survival of agrifood micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises in the Sudan’s recent conflict: Exploring systemic challenges

The outbreak of violent conflict in the Sudan in April 2023 severely disrupted agrifood systems (AFS), markets and livelihoods. Micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) are playing a critical role in sustaining food supply, employment and economic activity. This paper examines which firm-level characteristics are associated with higher levels of operational continuity among MSMEs that have continued operations during the ongoing conflict. The analysis uses nationally representative data from a survey of MSMEs in 2024 by IFPRI and the UNDP, conducted through computer-assisted telephone interviews across 13 states of the Sudan. It links firm-level outcomes with locality- or district-level conflict exposure data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED). The empirical analysis focuses on 785 enterprises that were operating prior to the conflict and continued operations thereafter. Firms’ post-conflict operational status is measured using an ordered categorical variable ranging from no operations to full operational capacity, and an ordered logit model is used to estimate how firm characteristics are associated with operational recovery. Descriptive results indicate substantial disruption among surviving firms: 57 percent of enterprises relocated at least once, 62 percent experienced temporary closure, and only 19 percent were operating at full capacity at the time of the survey. Average monthly sales declined sharply, particularly for non-agricultural AFS enterprises, and permanent employment fell across all enterprise types. Econometric results show that sector affiliation and commodity type are not significant predictors of a firm’s operational level. Instead, operational outcomes are strongly associated with value chain position, firm size, financial inclusion, formality, owner characteristics, and pre-conflict enterprise location. Input dealers display significantly higher odds of operating at higher capacity relative to producers, while firms in support services such as logistics, transport and packaging face significantly lower odds. Small and medium-sized firms, female-owned enterprises, firms with bank accounts, and enterprises that were not financially constrained prior to the conflict are more likely to be sustaining higher operational levels. In contrast, registered firms, those with multiple pre-conflict branches, and those located in high-intensity conflict areas, particularly Khartoum, are significantly less likely to be operating at higher capacity. The findings highlight that enterprise resilience during conflict is shaped more by structural and institutional characteristics than by sector alone. Policy responses should therefore prioritize restoring midstream value chain functions, expanding access to conflict-adapted financial services, and supporting and protecting logistics and transport networks, particularly in relatively safer states that have become hubs for displaced firms. Strengthening these enterprises is essential, not only for firm survival, but also for maintaining AFS functioning and supporting broader economic stabilization in fragile and conflict-affected settings.

Proximity over pay: Why small towns attract migrants

Because rural migrants are deterred far more by distance than they are drawn by higher pay, nearby towns – despite offering lower earnings than cities – end up absorbing far more migrants and doing more to reduce poverty, making them a decisive channel for inclusive urban growth.

Tracking agrifood value chain transformation in India: A tale of two approaches

Global experience suggests that as agrifood systems transform with economic development, nonfarm activities rise in importance relative to primary agriculture owing to the expansion of processing, trade and distribution. Empirical work on the nature and distributional consequences of this transformation have followed two distinct but related methods that rely on Input-Output modelling, the “ERS-USDA Food Dollar approach” and the “IFPRI’s AgGDP+ approach”. So far, these have run parallel to each other. In this study, we offer a novel comparative perspective by applying both methods to a common dataset from India over the period 2011-12 to 2023-24. The Food Dollar estimates of the size of the Indian agrifood system remain consistently higher than that of the AgGDP+ approach but puts the share of “farm” lower- at around half of the consumer food rupee in the former in contrast to around two-thirds of agrifood-system value added under the latter approach. Our analysis suggests that these differences stem from identifiable differences in the questions they seek to answer and the way the data are processed. They must hence be viewed as complementary rather than competing approaches. Despite different vantage points, both methods suggest a coherent if surprising story of India’s agrifood system transformation. First, primary agriculture appears to be central to the agrifood system, whether measured as a share of the consumer rupee or as a share of agrifood-system value added. Second, post-farm value is concentrated in trade and transport rather than in processing or food service. Third, a transformation of the system through the growth of services, input supply, and away-from-home consumption is underway but has so far been gradual.

Exposure to multiple shocks and fragility: Distinct but connected dimensions of vulnerability in polycrisis contexts

Households in low- and middle-income countries increasingly face overlapping and intersecting risks, yet empirical approaches analyze shock exposure or fragility in isolation. We bring these two dimensions together by examining exposures to multiple shocks and fragility as distinct but connected dimensions relevant to polycrisis contexts at the household level. Using panel data from the HORTINLEA survey (2014–2016) conducted in Kenya in rural and peri-urban areas, we combine a nonparametric multi-shock index (MSI), which captures exposure to economic, climatic, and health shocks, with a fragility exposure index (FEI), which measures experiences of human insecurity, economic exclusion, and social cohesion. We find that the MSI and FEI are weakly correlated, consistent with limited empirical overlap between the two indexes in this sample. Contemporaneous, earlier, and three-wave average shock exposures are not significantly associated with aggregate fragility. In contrast, fragility exposure is robustly associated with food security outcomes. A 10-percentage-point higher FEI is associated with 0.11–0.14 fewer food groups in household dietary diversity and 0.18–0.27 fewer months of adequate household food provisioning. Domain-specific results reveal heterogeneous associations, with exposure to multiple shocks positively associated with greater fragility in the social cohesion domain. The findings highlight the value of distinguishing shock exposure from underlying fragility when assessing household vulnerability in contexts affected by multiple overlapping pressures.

Anticipating the 2026/2027 El Niño shock in Papua New Guinea: An assessment of rural household vulnerability from the 2023 Rural Household Survey

– PNG is entering a period of elevated climate and food-security risk. The developing 2026 El Niño raises the likelihood of drought and agricultural stress, with frost an additional concern in the Highlands. Early reports of falling water levels and frost damage underscore the need for preparedness. Impacts may persist well into 2027, since historically El Niño drought conditions are typically followed by flooding from La Niña climate patterns. – Households already rely on coping strategies when food and livelihoods are under pressure. The 2023 PNG RHS Report shows that households respond to shocks through mechanisms such as relying on wantok networks, consuming cheaper foods, and increasing labor supply. These strategies provide important short-term support but may be insufficient during severe or prolonged climate shock and can carry longer-term welfare costs. – Agriculture is a key pathway from climate shocks to welfare. Own production provided 54 percent of food consumed, compared with 38 percent purchased and 7 percent from gifts or transfers. Drought or frost can reduce food availability while increasing market dependence and exposure to higher prices. – Vulnerability is concentrated but extends beyond the Highlands. Highland areas warrant particular attention because drought and frost can coincide, but climate impacts can also affect other regions through agriculture, livestock, water, transport, and markets. – Targeting should combine climate exposure with household vulnerability. Priority areas should reflect current climate conditions, drought and frost risk, agricultural conditions, food insecurity, livelihoods, assets, and market access, followed by rapid verification. Continued monitoring of food markets is essential. Because many households rely on purchased food, changes in food prices, market availability, and access should be monitored closely as El Niño conditions develop. Market monitoring can help identify emerging food-security pressures, inform targeting, and determine when and where assistance or other interventions should be activated. – The immediate priority is anticipatory action. Government and development partners should prepare food assistance, agricultural and livestock protection, market monitoring, logistics, and delivery systems, backed by flexible financing that can be activated when agreed triggers are reached. – The immediate priority is anticipatory action. Government and development partners should prepare food assistance, agricultural and livestock protection, market monitoring, logistics, and delivery systems, backed by flexible financing that can be activated when agreed triggers are reached. – The 2023 PNG-RHS provides a foundation for improved climate-risk targeting. Linking household data with rainfall, temperature, drought, NDVI, elevation, agricultural, and market data can improve identification of areas where climate stress is most likely to translate into welfare losses and strengthen anticipatory action.

Double burden of malnutrition in Nigeria: Trends, drivers, and regional disparities among children

Malnutrition remains a central public health and development challenge in Nigeria, with profound implications for human capital formation, labor productivity, and inclusive growth. Using four rounds of the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS, 2008 to 2023-24), this study documents national and regional trends in the double burden of malnutrition and rigorously identifies the socioeconomic, demographic, and contextual determinants driving persistent North–South inequalities. We estimate pooled binary and multinomial logistic regression models to assess the effects of household characteristics on child nutrition and apply the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to separate disparities arising from differences in household endowments from those arising from differences in the structural returns to those endowments. Results show deteriorating nutritional outcomes, with rising stunting and wasting and persistent regional inequalities. Stunting and wasting are disproportionately concentrated in northern zones, even among households with comparable assets. Decomposition analysis indicates that regional gaps stem more from systematically lower returns to income, maternal education, and access to basic services than from differences in endowments. Low-returns equilibria reflect deep structural constraints, including inefficient food systems, limited service quality, restrictive gender norms, exposure to conflict, and weak complementarities between household investments and local service environments. Policy interventions targeting households alone are insufficient. Closing regional gaps requires raising the returns to public and private investments via nutrition-sensitive agricultural programs, strengthened service delivery, gender-responsive policies, and conflict-adaptive governance. Without addressing these structural penalties, additional spending risks reinforcing inequality rather than accelerating progress toward Nigeria's Sustainable Development Goals.

Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) 2025

The Tajikistan Rural Household Survey (TRHS) is a survey data collection effort led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS). It is an ambitious attempt to generate data critical to filling pertinent evidence gaps on the livelihoods and the resilience of rural households in Tajikistan. The TRHS interviewed 3,267 households in the country's three most populated regions (Sughd Region, Khatlon Region, and Districts of Republic Subordination). The in-person household survey includes a household-level questionnaire that was administered to any knowledgeable adult household member. An accompanying individual-level questionnaire was administered in private to one randomly selected household member, aged 18 to 54 years old. In households were no adult was present in the specified age range, another household member 55 years or older was allowed to respond to the individual-level questionnaire. The dataset also consists of a brief enumerator survey.

How do the latest Black Sea attacks affect global food security?

Attacks on agricultural infrastructure have been a defining feature of Russia’s war in Ukraine since 2022, causing record-level impacts on global food and fertilizer markets. However, recent attacks on shipping and export infrastructure in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov represent a heretofore unseen escalation in agriculture-related attacks by each country. Russia’s attacks on cargo ships and export infrastructure have largely suspended vessel traffic through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, previously responsible for approximately 90 percent of Ukraine’s agricultural exports. Ukraine’s attacks on major Russian ports in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov have damaged grain export infrastructure and grain-carrying ships, leading Russia to suspend exports from its highest-capacity grain export terminals. These mutual attacks have made a significant proportion of the world’s wheat trade inaccessible to buyers and threaten global fertilizer trade—while reductions in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Panama Canal further complicate agriculture trade routes.

Global agrifood systems outlook to 2050

Agrifood systems are changing in remarkable ways, driven by changes in population, income, technology, climate, and many other factors. Preparing for the future requires learning from the past while exploring how the future will differ. Helping public and private decision-makers in low- and middle-income countries plan strategically to meet future agrifood systems challenges requires a comprehensive longer-term outlook. This report uses advanced modeling tools to explore the likely direction and magnitude of changes in major agrifood systems indicators under “middle-of-the-road” assumptions about long-term changes in drivers. The authors present projections for a wide range of agrifood systems drivers and impact indicators over the next 25 years at global and regional levels. Substantial progress is projected across regions and agrifood systems indicators, but major challenges remain. <B>Report Landing Page</B>: https://www.ifpri.org/ifpri-book/global-agrifood-systems-outlook-to-2050/ <B>Print on Demand</B>: https://www.amazon.com/dp/089629479X <B>Launch Event</B>: https://www.ifpri.org/event/global-agrifood-systems-outlook-to-2050-informing-decisions-under-uncertain-future/

Import bans in Senegal onion sector

This policy brief provides an in-depth analysis of onion import restrictions in Senegal, focusing on their effects on prices, trade, and welfare. The analysis combines econometric evidence and a spatial partial equilibrium model to quantify the impacts of trade restrictions and their removal. The results show that the ban led to a significant and heterogeneous increase in local prices over the period, reaching 92% at the peak of the effect. Local producers benefitted from the price increase when they sell their product at this precise moment while consumer welfare is reduced. The removal of the ban would increase consumer welfare and intra-African trade but at the expense of local producers, undermining the self-sufficiency objective set by the government.

Aligning private incentives with societal goals in smallholder agriculture

Estate agriculture in Malawi and its economic interplay with the smallholder sector: A historical perspective

While smallholder farming remains at the center of agricultural transformation efforts in Malawi, there is renewed interest in the potential role of larger-scale farming in accelerating agricultural and rural development. Larger-scale farms —“estates”— have, however, been part of Malawi’s agricultural landscape for more than 140 years. Agriculture has long been described as bifurcated with a large, subsistence-oriented smallholder sector alongside a smaller estate sector that historically supplied most agricultural exports. This study reviews the evolution of estate agriculture and examines how estates and smallholders have interacted economically, drawing lessons for efforts to promote broad and sustainable agricultural and rural economic development centered around larger-scale farming. Despite its importance to Malawi’s international trade, the performance of the estate sector has been mixed at best. When estates thrived, it was rarely because they were more productive or efficient than smallholders, but rather because the government instituted regulations or took other actions that hamstrung the productive potential of smallholders in some way. Most leasehold estates were created in the 1980s, when quotas to sell burley tobacco were reserved for estates of at least twelve hectares, leaving a sector made up of a large mass of small leaseholds and a few genuinely large estates. Other than tenure status and scale, there have been few meaningful distinctions in how the small estates and smallholders operate. With the liberalization of smallholder agricultural marketing in the 1990s, the incentive to maintain these leases disappeared and most appear to have expired, though some of the older and larger estates retain valid leaseholds. The legal status of the lapsed leaseholds is also unclear. It is uncertain whether the land can be re-leased, remains with the former leaseholders, or reverts to customary tenure. This ambiguity, combined with longstanding concerns about idle estate land, is problematic in the context of increasing agricultural land pressure. Estates have frequently partnered with smallholders. The visiting tenant system for tobacco production evolved into an outgrower scheme, and the Integrated Production System that now organizes most of Malawi's tobacco production has a similar architecture albeit with different actors. Other outgrower schemes emerged, at least in part, because of heavy government involvement. Those that endured did so largely because of the nature of the crops at the center. Tea and sugarcane must be processed rapidly using specialized, capital-intensive equipment to realize their economic value. Beyond such partnerships, evidence that estates generate benefits for the smallholders around them is thin. Historically many estates have been too poorly managed, and unprofitable to generate economic spillovers. The historical record therefore provides limited support for assuming that large-scale farms in Malawi are inherently more productive or efficient than smallholders, or that their presence will automatically benefit surrounding smallholders. Partnerships between large farms and smallholders are mutually beneficial and commercially successful only in specific contexts and for specific products and where larger-scale farms do indirectly affect smallholder operations and technology adoption and input use in particular, the benefits have often been modest. None of this argues against large farms in Malawi. Especially for crops suited to mechanized farming and those requiring irrigation, large-scale production may be more efficient. Estates and other largescale agrifood enterprises are also better positioned than smallholders to engage in processing and to access higher-value markets. As resources are scarce, however, the question is not only whether larger-scale farming can contribute to the development of commercial agriculture, but whether its contribution justifies diverting resources away from smallholder-oriented and other programs.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, August 2026

– Retail prices of maize increased on average by 20 percent in August. – Prices rose in all monitored markets across all regions of Malawi despite continued imports. – Imports dominate cross-border trade in Maize at all monitored border locations.

Assessing the local economy-wide impacts of an anchor enterprise in rural Malawi: Evidence from the 2025 operations of Pyxus Agriculture Malawi Limited around Chilanga Farm and Forest, Kasungu

Smallholder-centered agricultural strategies have had limited success in Malawi, prompting interest in anchor-enterprise models in which agribusinesses partner with surrounding smallholder farmers. This note examines whether the benefits of one such anchor enterprise — Pyxus Agriculture Malawi Limited (PAM), a Growth Poles Project partner that sources groundnuts from smallholder farmers around its Chilanga Farm in Kasungu District — reach beyond the farmers and workers it engages directly. Using a local economy-wide impact evaluation (LEWIE) model calibrated on 2025 household and business survey data together with firm administrative records, we trace the full circuit of income that PAM's local spending sets in motion. PAM's 2025 injection of MWK 623 million — MWK 165 million in net outgrower payments for groundnut sales and MWK 458 million in wages — generated an estimated MWK 1,152 million in real household income across the zone of influence (95% CI: 1,090–1,214), corresponding to a real income multiplier of 1.85. In other words, for every kwacha PAM spent locally, a further MWK 0.85 of real income was created as that spending circulated through local markets, amounting to MWK 529 million in secondary or spillover income. Roughly 74 percent of this spillover accrued to households with no direct contractual relationship with the enterprise, reaching them through the wages and profits of local businesses that serve the PAM workforce and outgrowers. The poorest 40 percent of households captured about 34 percent of the secondary income (MWK 178 million). PAM's operations and spending also supported approximately 6,780 additional labor days beyond direct employment at Chilanga Farm. These gains came with only moderate price pressure: PAM's operations raise non-tradable prices by approximately 7.4 percent and local wages by 4.6 percent. The multiplier is large and statistically robust, falling to 1.62 only under the most conservative assumption — treating all local activities as non-tradable — and otherwise close to the central estimate of 1.85. Its comparatively high level reflects the specific conditions of the zone of influence around Chilanga Farm and forest: high local retention of household spending, a high value-added share in groundnut production that channels outgrower payments directly into household income rather than into purchased inputs, and strong circulation of income through nearby village and trading-center markets. The principal brake on the multiplier is leakage through non-farm intermediate inputs, as local businesses source between 51 and 70 percent of their inputs from outside the zone. Ex-ante simulations map the levers available to PAM and its partners to amplify its local economic impact further. Of the five scenarios modeled, a seed-multiplication ("nursery") package that lowers outgrower input costs and local sourcing of a workforce meal program — generate the most total income relative to the direct injection (MWK 117.6 million total from MWK 63.5 million and MWK 28.2 million from MWK 15.2 million, respectively). The wage channel yields somewhat less total income relative to the direct injection (MWK 193.3 million total from MWK 114.4 million) but distributes it more broadly, with non-PAM households capturing nearly half of the spillover income. A complementary 10 percent productivity improvement in local non-tradable businesses would raise the overall multiplier from 1.85 to 2.04 while substantially reducing the associated price pressure (from 7.4 to 4.3 percent), underscoring that investments in local market infrastructure, business capacity, and supply-chain logistics could simultaneously amplify income gains and reduce leakage.