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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Kinya Kaibung’a

Kinya Kaibung’a is a Research Officer with the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in Nairobi, Kenya. She has a keen interest in leveraging machine learning, AI, and other cutting-edge technologies to boost climate resilience and food security in smart agriculture systems.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 480 employees working in over 70 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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partnerships

The mission of the African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF) is to help farmers in need of agriculture support in Sub-Saharan Africa to find the tools and resources to compete in today’s modern agriculture markets. To achieve its mission, AATF promotes new technology, establishes partnerships between institutions and farmers, and much more. A non-profit managed and led by Africans for Africans, AATF strives to create sustainable and new ways to approach agri-business.

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Publications

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Working Paper

The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial

2025Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Zambrano, Patricia; Chambers, Judith A.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Popoola, Olufemi
Details

The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial

We assess the impacts of a genetically modified pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria through a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in two major cowpea-cultivating states. Our design allows us to examine the impacts of PBR cowpea with and without a package of complementary inputs (fertilizer and insecticides) and in comparison to farmers who received only a conventional improved cowpea variety. Results indicate that farmers who received and planted PBR cowpea experienced significant increases in yield (21 percent) and net margins (49 percent) compared to those growing the conventional variety, with larger gains observed among those provided with the inputs package. Analysis of heterogeneous effects indicates substantial variation in outcomes based on baseline characteristics such as household size, landholding, pest control practices, and wealth. Estimation of group average treatment effects and classification analysis using a causal machine learning approach identify plot size, pesticide use, and assets as key drivers of impact heterogeneity. Findings highlight the need for targeted dissemination strategies to realize the sizable benefits of PBR cowpea for small-scale, resource-constrained farmers.

Year published

2025

Authors

Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Zambrano, Patricia; Chambers, Judith A.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Popoola, Olufemi

Citation

Amare, Mulubrhan; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Zambrano, Patricia; et al. 2025. The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2383. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178553

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Impact; Genetically Modified Organisms; Seed Damaging Insects; Pest Resistance; Cowpeas; Randomized Controlled Trials; Machine Learning; Smallholders; Information Dissemination; Yields; Postharvest Losses; Profitability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Working Paper

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Report

From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Malawi

2023Detelinova, Iva; Thomas, Timothy S.; Hammond, Wole; Arndt, Channing; Mukashov, Askar
Details

From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Malawi

Climate change is not projected to materially alter Malawi’s climate profile. Instead, it is likely to exacerbate existing climate vulnerabilities by increasing the frequency and intensity of cyclones, floods, and droughts. This is largely due to increased uncertainty around future precipitation levels. These adverse effects have already started to materialize and are expected to increase substantially over the next decades, particularly if efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by high emitting countries are insufficient. Climate change is also projected to increase average annual temperatures across the country. Climate change is expected to significantly affect Malawi’s economy, mainly because of its dependence on climate-sensitive economic sectors and its low capacity to take adaptation measures due to preexisting macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Malawi’s sensitivity to climate shocks is underpinned by significant environmental degradation, in particular deforestation, watershed degradation, and poor soil management. The two main impact channels are likely to be agriculture and road infrastructure. In agriculture, the increased uncertainty around future precipitation levels in Malawi will likely result in higher variability in crop yields. Climate change is projected to exacerbate preexisting environmental degradation challenges, including soil erosion. These effects are particularly problematic due to Malawi’s high poverty rate, lack of economic diversification (the agriculture sector represents one-third of the economy and employs over 70 percent of the workforce), and significant dependence on rainfed production (about 80 percent of the population). Climate change is likely to significantly impact Malawi’s road infrastructure, mainly due to increased risk of flooding, which would have broader economic and social knock-on impacts.

Year published

2023

Authors

Detelinova, Iva; Thomas, Timothy S.; Hammond, Wole; Arndt, Channing; Mukashov, Askar

Citation

Detelinova, Iva; Thomas, Timothy S.; Hammond, Wole; Arndt, Channing; and Mukashov, Askar. 2023. From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Malawi. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute; Cape Town: The African Climate Foundation. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/132778

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Southern Africa; Eastern Africa; Climate Change; Extreme Weather Events; Environmental Degradation; Agriculture; Infrastructure; Poverty; Economic Aspects

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136955 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Report

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Report

From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Kenya

2023Detelinova, Iva; Thomas, Timothy S.; Hammond, Wole; Arndt, Channing; Hartley, Faaiqa
Details

From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Kenya

Substantial model variability exists regarding the likely meteorological impact of climate change on Kenya, particularly with respect to future precipitation levels. Significant regional differences are expected, largely due to Kenya’s diverse climate profile. Overall, temperatures are projected to increase while future precipitation levels are highly uncertain. Climate change is expected to significantly affect coastal areas, including because of sea level rise risks, stronger winds, and an overall warmer and drier climate. This will likely harm important ecosystems, including wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs. Some models project that arid and semi-arid areas may become drier and hotter, which would exacerbate preexisting water scarcity and agricultural challenges for the already vulnerable communities living there. That said, these projections are not corroborated by all models. The climate change impact on other areas, particularly south and west of Mount Kenya, could generally be positive, as it would provide even better conditions for agriculture. The key climate change risk for Kenya is from extreme events, in particular droughts and floods. The frequency and intensity of such events is likely to increase because of climate change. They also often lead to adverse knock-on effects, such as soil erosion, land degradation, and pest breakouts. Overall, Kenya’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (2020) estimates that between 2010 and 2020, adverse climate change-related events led to annual socioeconomic losses of 3–5 percent of total gross domestic product (GDP).

Year published

2023

Authors

Detelinova, Iva; Thomas, Timothy S.; Hammond, Wole; Arndt, Channing; Hartley, Faaiqa

Citation

Detelinova, Iva; Thomas, Timothy S.; Hammond, Wole; Arndt, Channing; and Hartley, Faaiqa. 2023. From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Kenya. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute; Cape Town: The African Climate Foundation. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/132775

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Extreme Weather Events; Climate Change; Precipitation; Ecosystems; Agriculture; Water Scarcity; Drought; Flooding

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136953 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Report

Events

Science Forum 2018
IFPRI at External Event

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October 10 to 12, 2018

Science Forum 2018

IFPRI researchers and their case studies contribute to discussions on substantial interactions between the Sustainable Development Goals, the role of agricultural research in augmenting synergies, and managing trade-offs.