Al Jazeera examines how increasingly frequent climate shocks are affecting global food production and driving up food prices. IFPRI’s Rob Vos, interviewed live on October 2, 2026, by Al Jazeera TV, explains that high food prices will remain a threat as the effects of climate change continue, particularly through rising temperatures and their impact on agricultural production in many parts of the world. He stresses that climate change is not only causing higher temperatures but is also increasing the likelihood of extreme weather shocks, such as droughts and floods, and causing greater frequency of the occurrence of El Niño, all of which are putting pressure on food production.
According to Vos, reductions in food supply caused by these events can produce sharp price increases that ultimately affect consumers and place additional pressure on the livelihoods of vulnerable households.
He explains that food markets tend to adjust generally quickly to isolated climate shocks, but with repeated shocks that also cause damage to soils and water resources adaptation is much more difficult and costly, particularly in areas repeatedly exposed to drought and extreme heat. Importantly, Vos says that a 10% decline in global crop production can lead to an approximately 20% increase in prices, illustrating how the price impact of a climate shock can be considerably larger than the initial reduction in supply.
Vos also highlights the particular vulnerability of developing and least-developed countries. These countries may have less capacity to absorb the social cost of increases in food prices or external shocks, meaning that repeated crop losses can have a greater impact on consumers.
Finally, Vos discusses differences in crops’ ability to withstand climate stresses. Some crops, including sorghum and millet, are more resistant to changing climatic conditions, while new improved varieties and farming practices of maize and rice have also proven to be more climate resilient, even if not wholly immune to climate shocks. Hence, with further climate change, we should expect more food price shocks and volatility in the foreseeable future.
Read the full transcript and watch the episode (in Arabic)
This summary is based on an Arabic-to-English translation by Copilot and was verified for accuracy by Rob Vos.