Politico interviewed Joseph Glauber, IFPRI senior research fellow, for an article about the escalating rhetoric ahead of talks to extend a UN-brokered deal, that, since last July, has made it possible for Ukraine to export more than 20 million tons of food.
In Ukraine, farmers could not sell their crops after a bumper harvest before the war left grain stores brimming. The next harvest, already in the ground, had nowhere to go, said Glauber.
Russia, which reported strong crop yields last year, has gained from higher wheat prices as a result of the war in Ukraine, according to Glauber. “That’s true for all wheat producers,” he explained, “but Russia in particular because they send their wheat to many of the similar markets as Ukraine.”
The amount of grain and oilseeds that Ukrainian farmers managed to produce last year was “remarkable,” said Glauber. “But this year is different.” Yields from wheat planted last fall will be down by up to 40 percent, he forecast. For Ukrainian farmers already dealing with higher costs of production and export, this bodes ill.
Beyond Ukraine, other countries may make up some of the shortfall but, added Glauber, Ukraine is “such an important exporter” that what happens there “is important to the world.”
Read the entire Politico article.