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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 480 employees working in over 70 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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IFPRI Country and Regional Offices

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TOPIC

Trade

In today’s global economy, international agricultural trade plays an increasingly important role in ensuring food security. But domestic and international policies as well as administrative restrictions can hinder trade flows between domestic and foreign markets and producers. Policies to achieve domestic objectives in one country can affect trade flows in ways that lead to indirect effects in other countries.

IFPRI’s research informs the design of domestic and international trade policies in developing countries, as well as regional and global negotiations to promote an inclusive and efficient international trade system. This includes work on the impact of tariffs, quotas, and nontariff barriers as well as market-distorting food safety and environmental regulations, export bans aimed at food security, and agricultural support payments.

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IFPRI partners with institutions to strengthen developing countries’ capacities to do their own research and independently develop long-term, sustainable trade policies that help to eradicate poverty and support food security. To support rapid responses to market disruptions, IFPRI maintains the Food Security Portal, which provides early warning on international price changes and restrictive trade policies.

IFPRI’s research on this topic is closely aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG1, SDG2, SDG16, and SDG17, and contributes to the CGIAR Impact Areas on Nutrition, Health, and Food Security and Poverty Reduction, Livelihoods, and Jobs.

trade

topics

Publications

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Journal Article

The geopolitics of food security: Can BRICS orchestrate a new agenda with ASEAN countries?

2026Papa, Mihaela; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Sixt, Gregory N.
Details

The geopolitics of food security: Can BRICS orchestrate a new agenda with ASEAN countries?

Year published

2026

Authors

Papa, Mihaela; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Sixt, Gregory N.

Citation

Papa, Mihaela; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; and Sixt, Gregory N. 2026. The geopolitics of food security: Can BRICS orchestrate a new agenda with ASEAN countries? Global Food Security 51(December 2026): 100945. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2026.100945

Keywords

Food Security; Asean; Geopolitics; Agricultural Trade

Language

English

Access/Licence

Limited Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2026.100945 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

Phosphate fertilizer trade policy scenarios and their implications using the partial equilibrium Global Simulation Analysis Model (GSIM)

2026Fathelrahman, Eihab; Osman, Raeda; Davies, Stephen; Hoag, Dana; Neumann, Elke; Strzepek, Kenneth
Details

Phosphate fertilizer trade policy scenarios and their implications using the partial equilibrium Global Simulation Analysis Model (GSIM)

Year published

2026

Authors

Fathelrahman, Eihab; Osman, Raeda; Davies, Stephen; Hoag, Dana; Neumann, Elke; Strzepek, Kenneth

Citation

Fathelrahman, Eihab; Osman, Raeda; Davies, Stephen; Hoag, Dana; Neumann, Elke; and Strzepek, Kenneth. 2026. Phosphate fertilizer trade policy scenarios and their implications using the partial equilibrium Global Simulation Analysis Model (GSIM). Resources Policy 122(November 2026): 106075. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.106075

Keywords

Phosphate Fertilizers; Trade Policies; Equilibrium; Models; Trade Barriers; Mineral Industries; Governance

Language

English

Access/Licence

Limited Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.106075 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

India's agricultural policy transitions

2026Kishore, Avinash; Ramaswami, Bharat; Roy, Devesh
Details

India's agricultural policy transitions

This review traces the evolution of India's agricultural policy regime, centered on price supports, input subsidies, and complex trade policies that oscillate between protectionism and implicit taxation of farmers. It highlights three interlinked challenges: low farm incomes, poor diet quality, and environmental degradation. The policy architecture that ensures food security constrains the pace of agricultural transformation. Reform requires repurposing subsidies and restoring credibility to trade policy. While the digital infrastructure is in place to begin the shift to smarter subsidies, the political path is risky, as policy must seek credible ways to signal protection of farmer interests. Despite these policy rigidities, economic growth and urbanization continue to drive structural changes in agriculture. Diversification away from cereals, new food value chains, and rising integration with nonfarm employment are the key dynamic forces shaping agricultural outcomes. Future outcomes will depend on policy responses to emerging food value chains and new agricultural technologies.

Year published

2026

Authors

Kishore, Avinash; Ramaswami, Bharat; Roy, Devesh

Citation

Kishore, Avinash; Ramaswami, Bharat; and Roy, Devesh. 2026. India's agricultural policy transitions. Annual Review of Resource Economics 18(1): 89-109. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-120324-050541

Country/Region

India

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Agriculture; Policies; Agricultural Policies; Agrarian Reform; Food Security; Price Support; Trade Policies; Structural Adjustment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-120324-050541 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Blogs

Iran war: From fertilizer to food crisis?
Issue Post
 | 
July 02, 2026

Iran war: From fertilizer to food crisis?

By Rob Vos

The world’s ability to maintain stable food supplies is increasingly at risk.

The Iran war: Potential food security impacts
Issue Post
 | 
March 06, 2026

The Iran war: Potential food security impacts

By Joseph Glauber

Problems in the Strait of Hormuz reverberate globally.

Balancing external shocks and domestic reforms: Do U.S. tariffs erode India’s tax reform benefits?
Research Post
 | 
February 05, 2026

Balancing external shocks and domestic reforms: Do U.S. tariffs erode India’s tax reform benefits?

By Barun Deb Pal and Manmeet Ajmani

Modeling converging economic impacts.

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Events

Rapid Assessment of the 2026 El Niño in Papua New Guinea: Observations during a fresh produce value chain study
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

November 19, 2026, 10:00 – 11:00 am

Rapid Assessment of the 2026 El Niño in Papua New Guinea: Observations during a fresh produce value chain study

This event will be held on November 19, 2026, from 10:00am to 11:00am (Port Moresby) and November 18, 2026, from 7:00pm to 8:00pm (US/Eastern). A severe El Niño is predicted for 2026–2027, and early signs are already showing in Papua New Guinea’s main farming areas. In August and September 2026, the National Agricultural Research Institute […]

Will El Niño Move Markets? Assessing the Risks for Global Agriculture
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

November 12, 2026, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Will El Niño Move Markets? Assessing the Risks for Global Agriculture

Please type your questions into the chat box with name, affiliation, and country. The event video, presenter slides, and podcast will be available in the days following the event. How will El Niño conditions affect global agricultural production, trade flows, and commodity prices, especially amid overlapping shocks from high energy prices and logistical disruptions? Effects […]

IFPRI @ 31st UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP31)
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

November 9 to 20, 2026

IFPRI @ 31st UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP31)

IFPRI is pleased to participate in the 31th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP31) being held in Antalya, Türkiye from November 9 to November 20, 2025. COP31 (31st Conference of the Parties) is the latest session of the supreme decision-making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Its core purpose […]

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News

August 23, 2026 | In the News

The world’s breadbaskets are getting pounded by war, weather and trade spats (NYT)

The New York Times quotes IFPRI’s Joseph Glauber on the U.S. wheat prices and affordability.

July 28, 2026 | Press Release

IFPRI Global Food Policy Report 2025 receives AAEA Quality of Communication Award

The award recognizes excellence in communicating agricultural and applied economics research to broader audiences.

July 24, 2026 | In the News

The Strait of Hormuz closure is already hitting supermarket prices (OilPrice.com)

The article draws on earlier IFPRI analysis by Rob Vos, “referring to the unfolding situation in fertilizer supply chains as an “input crisis.”

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Projects

Economywide Risk Assessments

Economywide Risk Assessments

Developed using advanced machine learning, simulation, and data mining techniques, these country briefs provide detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. Produced by IFPRI, the……

Strengthening Food Systems to Promote Increased Value Chain Employment Opportunities for Youth

Strengthening Food Systems to Promote Increased Value Chain Employment Opportunities for Youth

…

Impact of COVID-19 on Food Value Chains

Impact of COVID-19 on Food Value Chains

This project studied the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on eight food value chains in three countries: okra, tomatoes, and dairy in Burkina Faso; maize……

Regional Trade and Agricultural Transformation in the Bay of Bengal Countries

Regional Trade and Agricultural Transformation in the Bay of Bengal Countries

…

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Our experts

Joseph Glauber

Joseph Glauber

Research Fellow Emeritus , Director
General's Office (DGO)

Will Martin

Will Martin

Research Fellow Emeritus, Director
General's Office (DGO)

Nicholas Minot

Nicholas Minot

Research Fellow Emeritus, Markets,
Trade, and Institutions

Ian Masias

Ian Masias

Program Head, Development
Strategies and Governance

Antoine Bouet

Antoine Bouet

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Markets,
Trade, and Institutions

Charlotte Hebebrand

Charlotte Hebebrand

Director of Communications and Public Affairs, Communications
and Public Affairs (CPA)