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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 480 employees working in over 70 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Director General’s Office (DGO)

Joseph Glauber

Research Fellow Emeritus

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Bio

Joe Glauber is a Research Fellow Emeritus in the Director General’s Office. His areas of interest are price volatility, global grain reserves, crop insurance, and trade.

Prior to joining IFPRI, Joe spent over 30 years at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, including as Chief Economist from 2008 to 2014. As Chief Economist, he was responsible for the Department’s agricultural forecasts and projections; oversaw climate, energy, and regulatory issues; and served as Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation. From 2007 to 2009, Joe was the Special Doha Agricultural Envoy at the office of the U.S. Trade Representative where he served as Chief Agricultural Negotiator in the Doha talks. He served as economic adviser at the “Blair House agreements,” leading to the completion of the Uruguay Round negotiations.

Joe is the author of numerous studies on crop insurance, disaster policy, and US farm policy. In 2012, he was elected Fellow of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. He received his PhD in Agricultural Economics from the University of Wisconsin and holds an bachelor’s degree in Anthropology from the University of Chicago.

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Publications

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Report

Off-BRAND: The fallacy of encouraging beef herd retention through insurance subsidies

2026Glauber, Joseph W.
Details

Off-BRAND: The fallacy of encouraging beef herd retention through insurance subsidies

Key Points – High beef prices and the smallest cattle herd since the late 1940s have prompted the Trump administration to implement a number of policy initiatives to boost beef supplies. – One such program is the Beef Retention and National Development endorsement for Livestock Risk Protection, an endorsement on the current livestock insurance program that would allow cow-calf operators who retain heifers for breeding purposes to “insure” the value of selling the heifer over a two-year period. – The insurance proposal is fundamentally flawed in concept, would likely be costly to operate, and could distort production decisions. In the near term, this would result in higher cattle and beef prices and prolong economic adjustment in the sector.

Year published

2026

Authors

Glauber, Joseph W.

Citation

Glauber, Joseph W. 2026. Off-BRAND: The fallacy of encouraging beef herd retention through insurance subsidies. AEI Report. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute.

Country/Region

United States

Keywords

Northern America; Beef Herds; Livestock Insurance; Insurance; Subsidies; Food Prices; Risk Reduction; Livestock Management

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Report

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Opinion Piece

How do the latest Black Sea attacks affect global food security?

2026Welsh, Caitlin; Curtis, Emma; Glauber, Joseph W.
Details

How do the latest Black Sea attacks affect global food security?

Attacks on agricultural infrastructure have been a defining feature of Russia’s war in Ukraine since 2022, causing record-level impacts on global food and fertilizer markets. However, recent attacks on shipping and export infrastructure in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov represent a heretofore unseen escalation in agriculture-related attacks by each country. Russia’s attacks on cargo ships and export infrastructure have largely suspended vessel traffic through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, previously responsible for approximately 90 percent of Ukraine’s agricultural exports. Ukraine’s attacks on major Russian ports in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov have damaged grain export infrastructure and grain-carrying ships, leading Russia to suspend exports from its highest-capacity grain export terminals. These mutual attacks have made a significant proportion of the world’s wheat trade inaccessible to buyers and threaten global fertilizer trade—while reductions in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Panama Canal further complicate agriculture trade routes.

Year published

2026

Authors

Welsh, Caitlin; Curtis, Emma; Glauber, Joseph W.

Citation

Welsh, Caitlin; Curtis, Emma; and Glauber, Joseph W. 2026. How do the latest Black Sea attacks affect global food security? CSIS Opinion Piece. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-do-latest-black-sea-attacks-affect-global-food-security

Keywords

Black Sea; Conflicts; Food Security; Infrastructure; Trade

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Opinion Piece

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Book Chapter

Scenarios for agricultural trade in a changing world

2026Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Glauber, Joseph W.; Rueda, Jorge; Laborde Debucquet, David
Details

Scenarios for agricultural trade in a changing world

Over the past 45 years, world merchandise trade has undergone significant structural transformations, and agrifood products have been part of that evolution. After a period of stagnation in the early 1980s, global trade expanded steadily from the mid-1980s through the early 2000s, driven by trade liberalization, technological progress, and deeper economic integration. This expansion accelerated between 2005 and 2010 with the consolidation of global value chains. Between 2010 and 2020, trade growth slowed amid weaker demand and rising tensions. Following the COVID-19 shock, trade rebounded sharply, reaching a historical peak in 2022, largely driven by price increases in the context of the war in Ukraine and general inflationary trends due to the economic recovery following the pandemic. These price surges proved relatively short-lived, however, and commodity prices have generally declined since mid-2022 as supply conditions improved and markets adjusted.

Year published

2026

Authors

Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Glauber, Joseph W.; Rueda, Jorge; Laborde Debucquet, David

Citation

Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Glauber, Joseph W.; Rueda, Jorge; and Laborde Debucquet, David. 2026. Scenarios for agricultural trade in a changing world. In Agricultural Trade at a Crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African Perspectives for Post-MC14, eds. Valeria Piñeiro, Simon Mevell, and Martin Piñeiro. Part One: The Changing Geopolitical Landscape and the WTO, Chapter 1.4, Pp. 63-83. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183464

Keywords

Africa; Latin America and the Caribbean; Agricultural Trade; Impact; Production Factors; Welfare; Agricultural Products; Policies

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-SA-3.0-IGO

Source

Source record

Record type

Book Chapter

Blogs

How are fertilizer markets coping with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz?
Issue Post
 | 
September 18, 2026

How are fertilizer markets coping with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz?

By Joseph Glauber and Shawn Arita

A mixed picture for global prices and supplies.

Tensions in the Black Sea and regional droughts spark rising global wheat prices
Issue Post
 | 
August 03, 2026

Tensions in the Black Sea and regional droughts spark rising global wheat prices

By Joseph Glauber

A new set of problems roils markets.

Nigeria's fuel, fertilizer, and food prices feel the strain of the Iran conflict
Issue Post
 | 
June 22, 2026

Nigeria’s fuel, fertilizer, and food prices feel the strain of the Iran conflict

By Oliver Kiptoo Kirui, Adetunji Fasoranti, Temilolu Bamiwuye, Bedru Balana, Joseph Glauber, Charlotte Hebebrand, and Steven Were Omamo

A major energy producer faces complex impacts.

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Events

Will El Niño Move Markets? Assessing the Risks for Global Agriculture
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

November 12, 2026, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Will El Niño Move Markets? Assessing the Risks for Global Agriculture

How will El Niño conditions affect global agricultural production, trade flows, and commodity prices, especially amid overlapping shocks from high energy prices and logistical disruptions? Effects on the regions and commodities most exposed to production risks are relatively well understood, but the more critical issue for markets is how shocks could be transmitted through the […]

Double exposure: How El Niño and the Iran crisis could reshape food security
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

October 8, 2026, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Double exposure: How El Niño and the Iran crisis could reshape food security

Both El Niño and the ongoing crisis in Iran threaten to disrupt the global food system and affect food prices through impacts on agricultural production, energy and fertilizer markets, and trade. National governments and international partners face pressure to respond to effects on global markets and prices, as well as the more immediate shocks to […]

When Grain Trade Is Obstructed: Black Sea Disruptions and Global Market Impacts
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

October 1, 2026, 9:30 – 11:00 am

When Grain Trade Is Obstructed: Black Sea Disruptions and Global Market Impacts

The Black Sea region plays a critical role in global agricultural trade, supplying a significant share of internationally traded wheat, maize, and oilseeds. Yet ongoing disruptions to transport and export logistics—including damage to port infrastructure, shifting trade routes, rising freight and insurance costs, and heightened operational uncertainty—are affecting exports of agricultural commodities from the region. […]

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News

October 14, 2026 | In the News

Failure to activate Hormuz fertilizer plan could trigger food crisis, UN official says (Reuters)

Reuters references IFPRI’s September analysis by Joseph Glauber and Shawn Arita on the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

October 06, 2026 | Press Release

CAST names Joseph Glauber 2026 recipient of the CAST Lifetime Achievement Award

IFPRI research fellow emeritus honored for more than four decades of analysis and communication on agricultural markets, trade and food security; award to be presented Dec. 10 at the Library of Congress.

September 11, 2026 | In the News

The threat of higher diesel prices to grocery bills (Washington Examiner)

Washington Examiner quoted Joseph Glauber in the article on the impact of fuel prices on food prices.

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