Steven Were Omamo

Mapping supply chains, cost structure analysis, and investment priorities for food system transformation under conflict and climate stress in northern Nigeria

Transmission of the 2026 geopolitical energy shock: Fuel, food prices, and welfare implications in Nigeria

Key findings: – The 2026 geopolitical energy shock increased global oil prices by approximately 60 percent, leading to a 14–15 percent increase in domestic fuel prices in Nigeria. – Higher fuel prices were transmitted rapidly to food markets through increased transportation, storage, milling, and distribution costs, with the strongest impacts observed for local rice, imported rice, wheat flour, and garri. – Food prices exhibited high persistence, suggesting that the effects of the energy shock are likely to extend beyond the initial shock period. – Estimates from a simulation of the shock’s impact on household welfare show increases in food poverty (+3.4 percentage points) and undernourishment (+2.9 percentage points) and declines in food expenditure (−3.9 percent) and calorie intake (−3.1 percent). – Urban households experience larger declines in food expenditure and diet quality, while rural households experience larger increases in food poverty. – The findings highlight the importance of strengthening transport systems, improving energy security, and expanding targeted social protection to reduce the vulnerability of food systems to external energy shocks.

Effects of the Iran conflict on fuel, fertilizer, and food prices in Nigeria

Nigeria faces a new wave of economic pressure from the ongoing Iran conflict, with disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz causing sharp increases in global oil and fertilizer prices and threatening to reverse the recent decline in Nigeria’s food inflation. Although Nigeria could benefit from higher oil and fertilizer export revenues due to its expanding domestic refining and urea production capacity, the country remains heavily dependent on imported refined fuel, potash, phosphate, and other fertilizer inputs. Rising transport, logistics, and production costs are already increasing pressure on farmers, food systems, and household welfare. At the same time, however, the crisis presents a strategic opportunity for Nigeria to strengthen domestic refining, expand fertilizer production, deepen regional trade, and reposition itself as a major supplier of fuel and fertilizer across Africa.