Harvesting change: The impact of climate change on Africa’s agriFood systems
Africa is one of the most exposed continents to climate change. While global temperature has risen by 0.2°C per decade since 1991, in Africa the rate is faster, reaching 0.3°C (WMO 2022). Yet Africa contributes only modestly to climate change. Indeed, the continent emits 7 times less greenhouse gas compared to Europe and 15 times compared to North America (IPCC, 2023). In addition to rising temperatures, climate change affects Africa through several channels, including an increase in ocean levels, variations in precipitations (droughts and heavy rains), plant pests and animal diseases. Climate change is also expected to contribute to a significant reduction in arable land in the continent (IPCC, 2023). The new CAADP strategy and action plan for 2026-2035 recognizes that Africa is the hardest hit by climate change and that the phenomenon is one of the major threats to Africa’s agricultural systems and food security in the coming years.
All of these changes will affect agricultural production, a major challenge for Africa, as African economies and livelihoods remain heavily dependent on agriculture. Agriculture still represents 16% of Africa GDP with contributions ranging from 3% in Southern Africa to 25% in the eastern part of the continent. Due to the low level of labor productivity in agriculture, the sector’s contributions to total employment are higher than those of other sectors. By inducing structural changes in agricultural production, climate change will also affect trade flows by shifting comparative advantages between and within continents. Prices will also be affected. This Policy Brief i shows how Africa’s agricultural production and trade patterns are altered by climate change. It highlights the large impacts of climate change on agricultural production, reinforcing results from other work. It shows that the impacts on prices compound the production impacts on African economies and people given many countries in the region are net importers. However, the work also shows that there are substantial differences across the region in the size of the impacts.
Authors
Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; McNamara, Brian; Thomas, Timothy S.; Traoré, Fousseini
Citation
Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; McNamara, Brian; Thomas, Timothy S.; and Traoré, Fousseini. 2025. Harvesting change: The impact of climate change on Africa’s agriFood systems. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178415
Keywords
Africa; Climate Change; Impact Assessment; Agrifood Systems; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Modelling
