Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT)

The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) is tasked with advancing and protecting Australian interests internationally and contributing to global stability and economic growth. DFAT provides trade and development policy advice to the Australian government. Their development policy, Australian Aid, promotes prosperity, reduces poverty, and enhances stability.

Homepage Link

Projects

Fresh Food Price Analysis in Papua New Guinea

…

Publications

Working Paper

Regional implications of public investments and external shocks in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis

2025Dorosh, Paul A.; Fang, Peixun; Pradesha, Angga

Details

Regional implications of public investments and external shocks in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis

Improvements in telecommunications have enabled a tremendous increase in the flow of information across Papua New Guinea. Although transport costs remain high between various parts of the main island of Papua New Guinea, as well as between the main island and other parts of the country (e.g. the islands of New Britain and Bougainville to the East), phone and internet conditions enable government, traders and entrepreneurs to share market information that reduces transactions costs and improves market function. Nonetheless, there remain major differences in agricultural production, income sources and demand patterns across regions that are important to take into account in analyzing the impacts of external shocks and formulating development strategies. Earlier work on PNG by Schmidt et al., (2021) explored the effects of Covid-related income and world rice price shocks with a partial equilibrium model of PNG’s rice economy. Diao et al., (2021) used a regional multi-market model to analyze broader effects of Covid-19 and other shocks to agriculture and household incomes in four regions of PNG. Various other studies, including Dorosh and Pradesha (2022) and Diao et al. (2024), used national computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of PNG to analyze exchange rate, terms of trade, and productivity shocks on various household groups. In this paper, we extend these earlier analyses through use of a new regional CGE model that utilizes recent household survey data, including the 2023 IFPRI PNG rural household survey. The plan of this paper is as follows. The next section provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last decade, highlighting the almost constant share of agriculture in GDP and very low per capita agricultural GDP growth rate. Section 3 describes the regional disaggregation of the PNG economy and the structure of household incomes and expenditure as reflected in the economywide database, the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), used in this analysis. Section 4 then presents a summary of the regional economywide model. (Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper.) Design of the model simulations and simulation results covering investments in agriculture and transport sectors, as well as world price shocks are discussed in Section 5. Chapter 6 concludes with a summary of the main findings and policy implications, as well as suggested areas for further work.

Year published

2025

Authors

Dorosh, Paul A.; Fang, Peixun; Pradesha, Angga

Citation

Dorosh, Paul A.; Fang, Peixun; and Pradesha, Angga. 2025. Regional implications of public investments and external shocks in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis. Papua New Guinea Food Policy Strengthening Working Paper 8. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178296

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Public Investment; Shock; Agriculture; Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Brief

Understanding recent prices increases of animal-source foods in Myanmar

2025Minten, Bart; Aung, Nilar; Aung, Zin Wai; Htar, May Thet

Details

Understanding recent prices increases of animal-source foods in Myanmar

The livestock sector in Myanmar represents a significant component of the national economy, contributing approximately 6 percent to the country’s GDP. Beyond its economic role, the sector provides critical livelihood opportunities for rural households and underpins the supply of animal-source foods (ASF), which are essential for enhancing dietary diversity and nutritional outcomes. A resilient and efficiently functioning livestock sector also generates important multiplier effects, contributing to poverty reduction, employment creation, and overall economic growth (Diao et al. 2024). This note summarizes recent structural and market developments in Myanmar’s livestock industry and examines their implications for ASF price dynamics.

Year published

2025

Authors

Minten, Bart; Aung, Nilar; Aung, Zin Wai; Htar, May Thet

Citation

Minten, Bart; Aung, Nilar; Aung, Zin Wai; and Htar, May Thet. 2025. Understanding recent prices increases of animal-source foods in Myanmar. Myanmar SSP Research Note 126. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institution. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178051

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Prices; Animal Source Foods; Price Volatility; Livestock Systems

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

Agricultural input retailers in Myanmar: Insights from the 2025 monsoon season

2025Goeb, Joseph; Htar, May Thet; Zu, A Myint

Details

Agricultural input retailers in Myanmar: Insights from the 2025 monsoon season

This Research Note presents results from an August 2025 phone survey of 227 agricultural input retailers – who provide agricultural inputs and informal credit to farmers – in Myanmar’s major agro-ecological zones. Key Findings • Input sales declined sharply in the 2025 monsoon relative to 2024. Fewer retailers sold inorganic fertilizers and pesticides, and aggregate sales for those who did sell declined by 31 percent for inorganic fertilizer and 10 percent for pesticides. • The decline is not solely due to supply shortages: smaller areas planted, weaker farm profits, and conflict have dampened demand, while climate change and the 2025 earthquake add to input market stress. Two-thirds of retailers cite lower input demand from climate change in the past three years, and earthquake impacts – while more localized – disrupted market access and areas planted. • Transport remains the dominant business disruption. Even with a slight drop in overall reported disruptions compared to 2024, transport problems – higher costs, checkpoints and roadblocks – still dominate. Long input supply chains dependent on imports and flowing through Yangon mean that checkpoints and higher costs compound as inputs reach rural farmers. • Farmer finances are stressed, especially in rice-dominant areas. Farmers are asking for and taking more credit from input retailers. This likely reflects tighter liquidity following the recent global rice price decline, which has reduced incentives and profitability for monsoon paddy. • Credit provision is expanding but adding risk. More retailers are providing credit to farmers and sourcing their inputs on credit from suppliers. Yet, two-thirds of retailers that provided credit in 2024 still have unpaid debts from farmers, raising the risks of cascading financial stress. • Measures to ease transport constraints, stabilize access to imported fertilizers and pesticides, and expand formal credit options for both farmers and retailers would help sustain this essential link in the agrifood system.

Year published

2025

Authors

Goeb, Joseph; Htar, May Thet; Zu, A Myint

Citation

Goeb, Joseph; Htar, May Thet; and Zu, A Myint. 2025. Agricultural input retailers in Myanmar: Insights from the 2025 monsoon season. Myanmar SSP Research Note 125. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177266

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Farm Inputs; Markets; Transport; Supply Chains; Prices; Rice

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief