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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics.

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Publications

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Journal Article

Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture

2026
Gibson, Matthew; Sundiang, Marina; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Diniz Oliveira, Thais; Beier, Felicitas; Benavidez, Lauren; Bos, Astrid; Chepeliev, Maksym; Doelman, Jonathan; Dunston, Shahnila
…more Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hristov, Jordan; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Kozicka, Marta; Kuiper, Marijke; Kyle, Page; de Lange, Thijs; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Chen, David Meng-Chuen; Mishra, Abhijeet; Müller, Christoph; Nelson, Gerald; Palazzo, Amanda; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Springmann, Marco; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tassinari, Gianmaria; Thom, Ferike; Thornton, Philip K.; Tsuchiya, Kazuaki; van Zeist, Willem-Jan; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Van Vuuren, Detlef; van Zanten, Hannah H. E.; Weindl, Isabelle; Wiebe, Keith; Zhao, Xin; Herrero, Mario
Details

Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture

Food systems are a major contributor to exceeding planetary boundaries and poor quality diets are a key mortality risk globally. Projected population and income growth could exacerbate these challenges. In response, there are calls for transformation towards healthy and sustainable food systems. However, the scale and distribution of the impacts of this transformation on agriculture are underexplored. Here we show that, by 2050, the transformation of food systems towards healthy diets (adoption of the EAT–Lancet reference diet), improved productivity and halving of food waste results in a fundamental restructuring of global agriculture, aspects of which break with historical trends. Scenario simulations using a multimodel ensemble of ten global economic models show a 6% median decrease in agricultural land (+1% to −26%) compared with 2020 levels. By 2050, agricultural production would be 17% lower than business-as-usual projections (−2% to −32%) and, economically, the value of this production is US$1.6 trillion (26%) lower (+8% to −58%). Within this, the value of livestock production would be substantially lower than current 2050 projections (−49% to −83%), while vegetable, fruit, nut and legume production value would increase by 23% (−33% to +106%). Results are dependent on the assumed policies to achieve the transformation scenario. We highlight a more active role for food policy to consider the benefits of such a transformation (improved population health and reduced environmental pressures) and navigate the political economy of its impacts.

Year published

2026

Authors

Gibson, Matthew; Sundiang, Marina; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Diniz Oliveira, Thais; Beier, Felicitas; Benavidez, Lauren; Bos, Astrid; Chepeliev, Maksym; Doelman, Jonathan; Dunston, Shahnila; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hristov, Jordan; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Kozicka, Marta; Kuiper, Marijke; Kyle, Page; de Lange, Thijs; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Chen, David Meng-Chuen; Mishra, Abhijeet; Müller, Christoph; Nelson, Gerald; Palazzo, Amanda; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Springmann, Marco; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tassinari, Gianmaria; Thom, Ferike; Thornton, Philip K.; Tsuchiya, Kazuaki; van Zeist, Willem-Jan; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Van Vuuren, Detlef; van Zanten, Hannah H. E.; Weindl, Isabelle; Wiebe, Keith; Zhao, Xin; Herrero, Mario

Citation

Gibson, Matthew; Sundiang, Marina; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Diniz Oliveira, Thais; Beier, Felicitas; et al. 2026. Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture. Nature 657(8130): 156-163. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2

Keywords

Food Systems; Agricultural Transformation; Agriculture; Food Policies; Sustainability; Mathematical Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

Resource thumbnail

Conference Paper

Assessing potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of a food system transformation. An overview of economic modelling supporting the second EAT-Lancet commission

2026
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Sundiang, Marina; Gibson, Matthew; Oliveira, Thais Diniz; Beier, Felicitas; Benavidez, Lauren; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bos, Astrid; Chepeliev, Maksym; Chen, David Meng-Chuen
…more de Lange, Thijs; Doelman, Jonathan; Dunston, Shahnila; Frank, Stefan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hristov, Jordan; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Kozicka, Marta; Kiper, Marijke; Kyle, Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Mishra, Abhijeet; Müller, Christoph; Nelson, Gerald C.; Palazzo, Amanda; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Springmann, Marco; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Van Zaist, Willem-Jan; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Van Vuuren, Detlef; van Zanten, Hannah H. E.; Weindl, Isabelle; Wiebe, Keith D.; Zhao, Xin; Herrero, Mario
Details

Assessing potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of a food system transformation. An overview of economic modelling supporting the second EAT-Lancet commission

The first EAT-Lancet report proposed a great food system transformation composed of a shift to a healthy diet, increased agricultural productivity and reductions in food loss and waste. This study highlighted the potential of such a food system transformation to move towards greater environmental sustainability. However, questions were raised about the health and nutritional adequacy of the recommended diet as well as the socioeconomic and justice implications of such a food system transformation. In response to these questions the modelling in the second EAT-Lancet report looked to explore a broader range of socioeconomic and justice implications of a food system transformation. To do this the modelling efforts in the second commission were expanded to include a multi-model ensemble composed of 10 global economic models. This ensemble ran a series of scenarios to assess the potential impacts of the original 3 EAT-Lancet transformation drivers (dietary change, reduced food loss and waste, and increased agricultural productivity), as well as a new driver of ambitious climate mitigation, with the objective of identifying potential complementarities and trade-offs between the drivers of change. This paper presents the ensemble approach and summarizes key modeling results from this effort, which are broadly consistent with results from the first EAT-Lancet report. However, the application of economic models suggests that there may be greater challenges in achieving all environmental objectives (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorous) without additional measures. This class of models also facilitated an assessment of potential price and food affordability consequences of a global shift to a healthy diet. This paper will explore these findings and highlight where there is greater agreement across the model, as well as note where substantial model uncertainty remains. focus on identifying where the models are in greater agreement and where substantial model uncertainty remains.

Year published

2026

Authors

Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Sundiang, Marina; Gibson, Matthew; Oliveira, Thais Diniz; Beier, Felicitas; Benavidez, Lauren; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bos, Astrid; Chepeliev, Maksym; Chen, David Meng-Chuen; de Lange, Thijs; Doelman, Jonathan; Dunston, Shahnila; Frank, Stefan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hristov, Jordan; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Kozicka, Marta; Kiper, Marijke; Kyle, Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Mishra, Abhijeet; Müller, Christoph; Nelson, Gerald C.; Palazzo, Amanda; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Springmann, Marco; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Van Zaist, Willem-Jan; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Van Vuuren, Detlef; van Zanten, Hannah H. E.; Weindl, Isabelle; Wiebe, Keith D.; Zhao, Xin; Herrero, Mario

Citation

Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Sundiang, Marina; Gibson, Matthew; Oliveira, Thais Diniz; Beier, Felicitas; et al. 2026. Assessing potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of a food system transformation. An overview of economic modelling supporting the second EAT-Lancet commission. Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis in Kyoto, Japan, June 17-19, 2026. https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=7829

Keywords

Modelling; Econometric Models; Environmental Impact; Socioeconomic Impact; Sustainable Development; Food Prices; Food Security; Mathematical Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Conference Paper

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

A food system transformation pathway reconciles 1.5 °C global warming with improved health, environment and social inclusion

2025
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Beier, Felicitas; Humpenöder, Florian; Leip, Debbora; Crawford, Michael S.; Chen, David Meng-Chuen; von Jeetze, Patrick; Springmann, Marco; Soergel, Bjoern; Nicholls, Zebedee
…more Strefler, Jessica; Lewis, Jared; Heinke, Jens; Müller, Christoph; Karstens, Kristine; Weindl, Isabelle; Stevanović, Miodrag; Rein, Patrick; Sauer, Pascal; Mishra, Abhijeet; Bacca, Edna Johanna Molina; Köberle, Alexandre C.; Wang, Xiaoxi; Singh, Vartika; Hunecke, Claudia; Collignon, Quitterie; Schreinemachers, Pepijn; Dietz, Simon; Kanbur, Ravi; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander
Details

A food system transformation pathway reconciles 1.5 °C global warming with improved health, environment and social inclusion

The improvement of the global food system requires a thorough understanding of how specific measures may contribute to the system’s transformation. Here we apply a global food and land system modelling framework to quantify the impact of 23 food system measures on 15 outcome indicators related to public health, the environment, social inclusion and the economy, up to 2050. While all individual measures come with trade-offs, their combination can reduce trade-offs and enhance co-benefits. We estimate that combining all food system measures may reduce yearly mortality by 182 million life years and almost halves nitrogen surplus while offsetting negative effects of environmental protection measures on absolute poverty. Through joint efforts, including measures outside the food system, the 1.5 °C climate target can be achieved.

Year published

2025

Authors

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Beier, Felicitas; Humpenöder, Florian; Leip, Debbora; Crawford, Michael S.; Chen, David Meng-Chuen; von Jeetze, Patrick; Springmann, Marco; Soergel, Bjoern; Nicholls, Zebedee; Strefler, Jessica; Lewis, Jared; Heinke, Jens; Müller, Christoph; Karstens, Kristine; Weindl, Isabelle; Stevanović, Miodrag; Rein, Patrick; Sauer, Pascal; Mishra, Abhijeet; Bacca, Edna Johanna Molina; Köberle, Alexandre C.; Wang, Xiaoxi; Singh, Vartika; Hunecke, Claudia; Collignon, Quitterie; Schreinemachers, Pepijn; Dietz, Simon; Kanbur, Ravi; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander

Citation

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Beier, Felicitas; Humpenöder, Florian; Leip, Debbora; Crawford, Michael S.; et al. 2025. A food system transformation pathway reconciles 1.5 °C global warming with improved health, environment and social inclusion. Nature Food 6(12): 1133-1152. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01268-y

Keywords

Capacity Building; Food Systems; Health; Environment; Social Inclusion; Climate Change; Global Warming

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01268-y Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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