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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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Kinya Kaibung’a

Kinya Kaibung’a is a Research Officer with the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in Nairobi, Kenya. She has a keen interest in leveraging machine learning, AI, and other cutting-edge technologies to boost climate resilience and food security in smart agriculture systems.

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Wellcome Trust supports researchers and campaigns for better science through the lens of addressing large health challenges. Wellcome Trust directly funds thousands of scientists and researchers through every step of the scientific process – from research to analyzing impacts. They offer grants in biomedical science, population health, medical innovation, humanities and social science, and public engagement.

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Projects

Foresight Modeling with IFPRI’s IMPACT Model

Foresight Modeling with IFPRI’s IMPACT Model

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Publications

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Journal Article

Healthier diets: A global economic modelling study of income and employment impacts across regions

2026Komarek, Adam M.; Willenbockel, Dirk; Dunston, Shahnila; Cenacchi, Nicola; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Mason-D’Croz, Mason; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.
Details

Healthier diets: A global economic modelling study of income and employment impacts across regions

Interest has grown in how to achieve healthy, sustainable, and affordable human diets. The potential income and employment effects of a transition towards healthier diets have received much less attention. We simulate aggregate and sectoral income and employment for business-as-usual and healthier diets for all geographic regions up to 2050 using scenario-based modelling. These healthier diets can increase food’s share of household expenditure in some regions, for example from 18% to 25% in East and Central Africa in 2050. Our results suggest that a global shift towards healthier diets leads to a reallocation of primary factors of production, especially low-skilled labour and capital, from non-agricultural sectors to crop agriculture in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Notably, in 2050, with healthier diets, agriculture’s share of low-skilled labour increases by 3.2 percentage points in East and Central Africa and 1.5 percentage points in South Asia excluding India. Although Gross Domestic Product increases in these regions relative to business-as-usual, this reallocation raises agriculture’s share of Gross Domestic Product, consistent with a slower pace of long-run structural transformation. The reallocation leads to a mild increase in wages for low-skilled workers relative to high-skilled workers in most of these regions, compared to business-as-usual. However, in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, food price increases outweigh wage gains for low-skilled labour, reducing real purchasing power. Policies that encourage healthier diets may also alter income and employment and reduce economic welfare of poor populations in some regions, so care is needed in policy design to avoid adverse unintended consequences.

Year published

2026

Authors

Komarek, Adam M.; Willenbockel, Dirk; Dunston, Shahnila; Cenacchi, Nicola; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Mason-D’Croz, Mason; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.

Citation

Komarek, Adam M.; Willenbockel, Dirk; Dunston, Shahnila; Cenacchi, Nicola; Godfray, H. Charles J.; et al. 2026. Healthier diets: A global economic modelling study of income and employment impacts across regions. Food Policy 142(August 2026): 103118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103118

Keywords

Diet; Income; Employment; Econometric Models; Modelling; Food Affordability; Healthy Diets

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103118 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

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Conference Paper

Assessing potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of a food system transformation. An overview of economic modelling supporting the second EAT-Lancet commission

2026
Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Sundiang, Marina; Gibson, Matthew; Oliveira, Thais Diniz; Beier, Felicitas; Benavidez, Lauren; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bos, Astrid; Chepeliev, Maksym; Chen, David Meng-Chuen
…more de Lange, Thijs; Doelman, Jonathan; Dunston, Shahnila; Frank, Stefan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hristov, Jordan; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Kozicka, Marta; Kiper, Marijke; Kyle, Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Mishra, Abhijeet; Müller, Christoph; Nelson, Gerald C.; Palazzo, Amanda; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Springmann, Marco; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Van Zaist, Willem-Jan; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Van Vuuren, Detlef; van Zanten, Hannah H. E.; Weindl, Isabelle; Wiebe, Keith D.; Zhao, Xin; Herrero, Mario
Details

Assessing potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of a food system transformation. An overview of economic modelling supporting the second EAT-Lancet commission

The first EAT-Lancet report proposed a great food system transformation composed of a shift to a healthy diet, increased agricultural productivity and reductions in food loss and waste. This study highlighted the potential of such a food system transformation to move towards greater environmental sustainability. However, questions were raised about the health and nutritional adequacy of the recommended diet as well as the socioeconomic and justice implications of such a food system transformation. In response to these questions the modelling in the second EAT-Lancet report looked to explore a broader range of socioeconomic and justice implications of a food system transformation. To do this the modelling efforts in the second commission were expanded to include a multi-model ensemble composed of 10 global economic models. This ensemble ran a series of scenarios to assess the potential impacts of the original 3 EAT-Lancet transformation drivers (dietary change, reduced food loss and waste, and increased agricultural productivity), as well as a new driver of ambitious climate mitigation, with the objective of identifying potential complementarities and trade-offs between the drivers of change. This paper presents the ensemble approach and summarizes key modeling results from this effort, which are broadly consistent with results from the first EAT-Lancet report. However, the application of economic models suggests that there may be greater challenges in achieving all environmental objectives (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorous) without additional measures. This class of models also facilitated an assessment of potential price and food affordability consequences of a global shift to a healthy diet. This paper will explore these findings and highlight where there is greater agreement across the model, as well as note where substantial model uncertainty remains. focus on identifying where the models are in greater agreement and where substantial model uncertainty remains.

Year published

2026

Authors

Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Sundiang, Marina; Gibson, Matthew; Oliveira, Thais Diniz; Beier, Felicitas; Benavidez, Lauren; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bos, Astrid; Chepeliev, Maksym; Chen, David Meng-Chuen; de Lange, Thijs; Doelman, Jonathan; Dunston, Shahnila; Frank, Stefan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hristov, Jordan; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Kozicka, Marta; Kiper, Marijke; Kyle, Page; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Mishra, Abhijeet; Müller, Christoph; Nelson, Gerald C.; Palazzo, Amanda; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Springmann, Marco; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Van Zaist, Willem-Jan; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Van Vuuren, Detlef; van Zanten, Hannah H. E.; Weindl, Isabelle; Wiebe, Keith D.; Zhao, Xin; Herrero, Mario

Citation

Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Sundiang, Marina; Gibson, Matthew; Oliveira, Thais Diniz; Beier, Felicitas; et al. 2026. Assessing potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of a food system transformation. An overview of economic modelling supporting the second EAT-Lancet commission. Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis in Kyoto, Japan, June 17-19, 2026. https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=7829

Keywords

Modelling; Econometric Models; Environmental Impact; Socioeconomic Impact; Sustainable Development; Food Prices; Food Security; Mathematical Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Conference Paper

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture

2026
Gibson, Matthew; Sundiang, Marina; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Diniz Oliveira, Thais; Beier, Felicitas; Benavidez, Lauren; Bos, Astrid; Chepeliev, Maksym; Doelman, Jonathan; Dunston, Shahnila
…more Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hristov, Jordan; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Kozicka, Marta; Kuiper, Marijke; Kyle, Page; de Lange, Thijs; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Chen, David Meng-Chuen; Mishra, Abhijeet; Müller, Christoph; Nelson, Gerald; Palazzo, Amanda; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Springmann, Marco; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tassinari, Gianmaria; Thom, Ferike; Thornton, Philip; Tsuchiya, Kazuaki; van Zeist, Willem-Jan; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Van Vuuren, Detlef; van Zanten, Hannah H. E.; Weindl, Isabelle; Wiebe, Keith; Zhao, Xin; Herrero, Mario
Details

Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture

Food systems are a major contributor to exceeding planetary boundaries and poor quality diets are a key mortality risk globally. Projected population and income growth could exacerbate these challenges. In response, there are calls for transformation towards healthy and sustainable food systems. However, the scale and distribution of the impacts of this transformation on agriculture are underexplored. Here we show that, by 2050, the transformation of food systems towards healthy diets (adoption of the EAT–Lancet reference diet), improved productivity and halving of food waste results in a fundamental restructuring of global agriculture, aspects of which break with historical trends. Scenario simulations using a multimodel ensemble of ten global economic models show a 6% median decrease in agricultural land (+1% to −26%) compared with 2020 levels. By 2050, agricultural production would be 17% lower than business-as-usual projections (−2% to −32%) and, economically, the value of this production is US$1.6 trillion (26%) lower (+8% to −58%). Within this, the value of livestock production would be substantially lower than current 2050 projections (−49% to −83%), while vegetable, fruit, nut and legume production value would increase by 23% (−33% to +106%). Results are dependent on the assumed policies to achieve the transformation scenario. We highlight a more active role for food policy to consider the benefits of such a transformation (improved population health and reduced environmental pressures) and navigate the political economy of its impacts.

Year published

2026

Authors

Gibson, Matthew; Sundiang, Marina; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Diniz Oliveira, Thais; Beier, Felicitas; Benavidez, Lauren; Bos, Astrid; Chepeliev, Maksym; Doelman, Jonathan; Dunston, Shahnila; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hristov, Jordan; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Kozicka, Marta; Kuiper, Marijke; Kyle, Page; de Lange, Thijs; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Chen, David Meng-Chuen; Mishra, Abhijeet; Müller, Christoph; Nelson, Gerald; Palazzo, Amanda; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Springmann, Marco; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tassinari, Gianmaria; Thom, Ferike; Thornton, Philip; Tsuchiya, Kazuaki; van Zeist, Willem-Jan; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Van Vuuren, Detlef; van Zanten, Hannah H. E.; Weindl, Isabelle; Wiebe, Keith; Zhao, Xin; Herrero, Mario

Citation

Gibson, Matthew; Sundiang, Marina; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Diniz Oliveira, Thais; Beier, Felicitas; et al. Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture. Nature. Article in press. First published online on July 15, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2

Keywords

Food Systems; Agricultural Transformation; Agriculture; Food Policies; Sustainability; Mathematical Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

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