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Kinya Kaibung’a is a Research Officer with the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in Nairobi, Kenya. She has a keen interest in leveraging machine learning, AI, and other cutting-edge technologies to boost climate resilience and food security in smart agriculture systems.

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Development Strategies and Governance

Ian Masias

Program Head

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Bio

Ian Masias is a Program Head in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in Portland, OR. He currently manages the Feed the Future Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA), which seeks to improve governance in Myanmar’s agriculture sector. Since joining IFPRI, he has also managed the Nigeria Strategy Support Program (NSSP); the Feed the Future Nigeria Agriculture Policy Project (NAPP); the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy (FSP); the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutes, and Markets (PIM); the Flagship on Economywide Factors Affecting Agricultural Growth and Rural Transformation; and the Flagship on Cross-Cutting Gender Research and Coordination. Ian has lived and worked in Myanmar, Nigeria, and Japan and has experience working in Ghana.

Before joining IFPRI, he was a research support specialist at the Yale Law School Center for the Study of Corporate Law. He holds a master’s degree in economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Connecticut.

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Brief

The Iran War and rising fuel and fertilizer prices: Implications for Myanmar’s rice value chain

2026Masias, Ian; Minten, Bart; Goeb, Joseph; Htar, May Thet; Aung, Nilar
Details

The Iran War and rising fuel and fertilizer prices: Implications for Myanmar’s rice value chain

The Iran War has driven up fuel and fertilizer prices in Myanmar and created the risk of shortages in some parts of the country. At the end of June, diesel prices were 34 percent higher and petrol prices 57 percent higher than at the end of February, while reference prices for urea in mid- and late June were 49 and 28 percent higher, respectively, than last monsoon season. Myanmar’s rice value chain depends heavily on fertilizer for paddy production and on fuel for land preparation, irrigation, harvesting, transport, and processing. Alongside an expected El Niño, these higher costs of fuel and fertilizer are likely to lower yields and rice production in the 2026 monsoon season. Higher costs are likely to reach consumers, raising the price of rice, the country’s main staple, and worsening food security at a time of already high humanitarian need. Recommended Actions: Ease forex restrictions and import licensing on fertilizer imports, which raise input prices above those of regional competitors. Promote more efficient use of chemical fertilizer, since prices are likely to stay elevated even after the crisis eases. Support the local production of organic fertilizer and educate farmers on its effective use, to reduce reliance on imported chemical fertilizer. Expand alternative and more reliable energy sources, addressing a constraint that predates the shock. Expand alternative and more reliable energy sources, addressing a constraint that predates the shock.

Year published

2026

Authors

Masias, Ian; Minten, Bart; Goeb, Joseph; Htar, May Thet; Aung, Nilar

Citation

Masias, Ian; Minten, Bart; Goeb, Joseph; Htar, May Thet; and Aung, Nilar. 2026. The Iran War and rising fuel and fertilizer prices: Implications for Myanmar’s rice value chain. Myanmar SSP Research Note 132. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183599

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Inflation; Fuels; Fertilizer Industry; Prices; Agricultural Value Chains; Rice

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

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Report

Myanmar monthly food price report – May 2026

2026Htar, May Thet; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian
Details

Myanmar monthly food price report – May 2026

Rice prices remained relatively stable in May 2026, increasing modestly by 2.2 percent year-on-year and 1.6 percent month-on-month. While national price movements were limited, substantial regional disparities persisted, reflecting differences in production conditions, market access, and transport costs. Most export crop prices showed limited month-on-month movements. Pulses price remained broadly stable, supported by continued demand from India and increased purchasing by traders and wholesalers. In contrast, maize prices continued to rise, driven by strong export demand ahead of the June closure of Thailand’s duty-free import window1 and improving cross-border trade opportunities. Vegetable prices showed mixed trends. Garlic prices continued to increase due to lower domestic production and reduced imported supply, while onion and chili prices recorded modest declines. Potato prices continued to fall amid increased inflows of lower-priced Chinese potatoes and weak domestic demand. Most animal-sourced food prices remained substantially higher than a year ago, led by mutton, beef, and fish. However, month-on-month price movements were generally modest, indicating stable market conditions across most livestock and fish products. The Iran conflict and partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global oil and fertilizer trade. In Myanmar, fuel and urea fertilizer prices remain well above year-earlier levels — even as diesel prices moderated from their April peaks — eroding fertilizer profitability and prompting some farmers to cultivate smaller areas or reduce plowings. If sustained, these conditions point to lower monsoon-season agricultural production. Flood warnings have been issued in recent weeks for parts of the country. Moreover, a new El Niño phase is expected to develop within the coming weeks, increasing the risks of drought in Myanmar.

Year published

2026

Authors

Htar, May Thet; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian

Citation

Htar, May Thet; Minten, Bart; and Masias, Ian. 2026. Myanmar monthly food price report – May 2026. Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report May 2026. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183515

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Food Prices; Food Security; Crops; Animal Source Foods

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Report

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Working Paper

Conflict and farmland values: Spatial panel data evidence from rice plots in Myanmar

2026Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian; Aung, Zin Wai; Ei Win, Hnin
Details

Conflict and farmland values: Spatial panel data evidence from rice plots in Myanmar

The significant economic implications of the value of farmland in developing countries is increasingly recognized, particularly in those countries where land scarcity is a growing problem. However, knowledge gaps remain about how farmland values can be affected by factors such as conflict and social instability. A knowledge gap also remains regarding how spatial transmission and feedback effects of land values among geographically proximate parcels may affect the relationship between conflict and farmland values. This impact has generally been overlooked in the literature, despite the well-established importance of clustering in agricultural economies. This paper addresses these gaps by utilizing unique, nationally representative panel data on farm households and spatial data on conflict intensity in Myanmar, with a focus on the period of significant conflict intensification following the 2021 political crisis, particularly in 2022 and 2023, when the country’s conflict level largely shifted to a high-intensity state. We apply spatial econometric models and their extensions to a panel data framework, as well as models that allow for endogenous spatial weights, which enable conflicts to not only affect farmland values but also shape how changes in farmland values transmit across locations. Our results indicate that more local conflict during the prior 12 months, measured by the number of months with at least one fatal violent event within the township of respondents, significantly reduced the farmland values of the largest rice plot of these respondents. Specifically, in the monsoon and non-monsoon harvesting seasons of 2022 and 2023, an additional one month of fatal violence was associated with approximately 3 percent and 5 percent decline in land values, respectively, implying a potentially sizable decline for townships that experience more persistent conflicts over several months. Moreover, the effects of violent events are magnified by spatial spillover effects on land values across village tracts. These adverse effects are robust and consistent across a range of methodologies and hold across diverse agroecological conditions.

Year published

2026

Authors

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian; Aung, Zin Wai; Ei Win, Hnin

Citation

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian; Aung, Zin Wai; and Win, Hnin Ei. 2026. Conflict and farmland values: Spatial panel data evidence from rice plots in Myanmar. 2026. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2418. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183196

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Farmland; Conflicts; Spatial Analysis; Seasons; Monsoon Climate; Cereals; Rice

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper