Subscribe

Back

Who we are

With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics.

Back

What we do

Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

Research topics

Projects and impact

Food Security Portal

Modeling tools

What’s new

Where we work

Back

Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 480 employees working in over 70 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

IFPRI Regional Programs

IFPRI Country and Regional Offices

Research by country and region

Subscribe

experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Nicola Cenacchi

Senior Research Analyst

Follow

Nicola

at:

ORCiD

Bio

Nicola Cenacchi is a Senior Research Analyst with the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, and is based at IFPRI-Washington, DC.

Publications

Publications

Resource thumbnail

Report

Global agrifood systems outlook to 2050

2026
Wiebe, Keith; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Gabriel, Sherwin; Hartley, Faaiqa; Mishra, Abhijeet; Robertson, Richard D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Thomas, Timothy S.
…more Willenbockel, Dirk
Details

Global agrifood systems outlook to 2050

Agrifood systems are changing in remarkable ways, driven by changes in population, income, technology, climate, and many other factors. Preparing for the future requires learning from the past while exploring how the future will differ. Helping public and private decision-makers in low- and middle-income countries plan strategically to meet future agrifood systems challenges requires a comprehensive longer-term outlook. This report uses advanced modeling tools to explore the likely direction and magnitude of changes in major agrifood systems indicators under “middle-of-the-road” assumptions about long-term changes in drivers. The authors present projections for a wide range of agrifood systems drivers and impact indicators over the next 25 years at global and regional levels. Substantial progress is projected across regions and agrifood systems indicators, but major challenges remain. Launch event: https://www.ifpri.org/event/global-agrifood-systems-outlook-to-2050-informing-decisions-under-uncertain-future/ Report Webpage: https://www.ifpri.org/ifpri-book/global-agrifood-systems-outlook-to-2050/

Year published

2026

Authors

Wiebe, Keith; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Gabriel, Sherwin; Hartley, Faaiqa; Mishra, Abhijeet; Robertson, Richard D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Thomas, Timothy S.; Willenbockel, Dirk

Citation

Wiebe, Keith; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Gabriel, Sherwin; Hartley, Faaiqa; et al. 2026. Global agrifood systems outlook to 2050. Report September 2026. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/185223

Keywords

Agrifood Systems; Forecasting; Climate Change; Commodities; Agricultural Products; Modelling

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Report

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

Healthier diets: A global economic modelling study of income and employment impacts across regions

2026Komarek, Adam M.; Willenbockel, Dirk; Dunston, Shahnila; Cenacchi, Nicola; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Mason-D’Croz, Mason; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.
Details

Healthier diets: A global economic modelling study of income and employment impacts across regions

Interest has grown in how to achieve healthy, sustainable, and affordable human diets. The potential income and employment effects of a transition towards healthier diets have received much less attention. We simulate aggregate and sectoral income and employment for business-as-usual and healthier diets for all geographic regions up to 2050 using scenario-based modelling. These healthier diets can increase food’s share of household expenditure in some regions, for example from 18% to 25% in East and Central Africa in 2050. Our results suggest that a global shift towards healthier diets leads to a reallocation of primary factors of production, especially low-skilled labour and capital, from non-agricultural sectors to crop agriculture in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Notably, in 2050, with healthier diets, agriculture’s share of low-skilled labour increases by 3.2 percentage points in East and Central Africa and 1.5 percentage points in South Asia excluding India. Although Gross Domestic Product increases in these regions relative to business-as-usual, this reallocation raises agriculture’s share of Gross Domestic Product, consistent with a slower pace of long-run structural transformation. The reallocation leads to a mild increase in wages for low-skilled workers relative to high-skilled workers in most of these regions, compared to business-as-usual. However, in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, food price increases outweigh wage gains for low-skilled labour, reducing real purchasing power. Policies that encourage healthier diets may also alter income and employment and reduce economic welfare of poor populations in some regions, so care is needed in policy design to avoid adverse unintended consequences.

Year published

2026

Authors

Komarek, Adam M.; Willenbockel, Dirk; Dunston, Shahnila; Cenacchi, Nicola; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Mason-D’Croz, Mason; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.

Citation

Komarek, Adam M.; Willenbockel, Dirk; Dunston, Shahnila; Cenacchi, Nicola; Godfray, H. Charles J.; et al. 2026. Healthier diets: A global economic modelling study of income and employment impacts across regions. Food Policy 142(August 2026): 103118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103118

Keywords

Diet; Income; Employment; Econometric Models; Modelling; Food Affordability; Healthy Diets

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103118 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

Resource thumbnail

Brief

A crop disease without borders: Why wheat stem rust threatens your food security

2026Schiek, Benjamin; Petsakos, Athanasios; Andrade, Robert; Keser, Mesut; Cenacchi, Nicola; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.; Urbani, Ilaria
Details

A crop disease without borders: Why wheat stem rust threatens your food security

Wheat Stem Rust (WSR) is no longer a localized crop disease. New strains are spreading across continents and overcoming resistance in widely grown wheat varieties. International markets spread the impacts of WSR far beyond outbreak zones. Even countries without outbreaks can face higher prices, lower food access and rising hunger. By 2050, WSR could put an additional 1 to 2.6 million people at risk of hunger each year, over a no-disease situation, rising to as many as 10 million in a worst-case scenario. WSR will impact primarily the most food-insecure populations worldwide. Investing in wheat disease research and wheat resistant varieties is a global public good. The benefits extend far beyond outbreaks regions, but no single country has enough incentives to invest alone.

Year published

2026

Authors

Schiek, Benjamin; Petsakos, Athanasios; Andrade, Robert; Keser, Mesut; Cenacchi, Nicola; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.; Urbani, Ilaria

Citation

Schiek, B.; Petsakos, A.; Andrade, R.; Keser, M.; Cenacchi, N.; Sulser, T.B.; Wiebe, K.; Urbani, I. (2026) A crop disease without borders: Why wheat stem rust threatens your food security. Foresight Policy Brief Series. CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations. 3 p. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183704

Keywords

Africa; Asia; Americas; Europe; Oceania; Food Security; Markets; Diseases; Wheat; Modelling; Stem Rust

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

News

September 10, 2026 | Press Release

New IFPRI/CGIAR report explores the future of global agrifood systems through 2050

Comprehensive long-term analysis highlights opportunities for progress and the need for strategic policy and investment planning to address emerging food, nutrition, and sustainability challenges.

July 25, 2019 | In the News

Rising CO2 to deplete crop nutrients in Africa, globally – Study (Business Day)

Nigeria’s Business Day reported on the findings of a new study by IFPRI researchers on projected changes to global nutrient availability due to climate change and rising CO2 levels. The article summarized the study’s key findings,including estimated reductions in growth of per capita protein, iron and zinc availability worldwide by 19.5%, 14.4% and 14.6%, respectively, and quoted Senior […]

July 19, 2019 | In the News

Climate change, rising CO2 level may reduce protein, iron, zinc in food crops by 2050: Study (Business Standard)

India’s Business Standard reported on a new study co-authored by Senior Scientist Timothy Sulser and Senior Research Analyst Nicola Cenacchi on projected changes to global nutrient availability due to climate change and rising CO2 levels over the next 30 years. The article summarized the study’s key findings, including estimated reductions in growth of per capita […]

View all News