Voice of America reports that the Black Sea is again becoming a focal point of the Russia-Ukraine war and one of the most dangerous shipping routes in the world. The increase in attacks is posing a threat to global food security.
Despite war-related destruction and reduced agricultural production, the Black Sea region remains vital to global food security. The region supplies nearly one-third of global wheat exports and 70% of sunflower oil exports. In comments to Voice of America, IFPRI noted that Black Sea wheat exports are particularly important for countries across Africa and the Middle East.
“Clearly, the Black Sea remains extremely important, even despite the decline in Ukraine’s production capacity caused by the war. Ukraine continues to export significant volumes of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil. Russia is also a major exporter of wheat and fertilizers,” said Joseph Glauber, Research Fellow Emeritus at IFPRI, in an interview with the Ukrainian Service of Voice of America.
“Because of the situation in the Black Sea, prices have become much more volatile,” Glauber added.
Volatility in the Black Sea region has been compounded by drought conditions in several major wheat-exporting countries. According to IFPRI research, global demand for wheat continues to grow while production remains constrained.
“The United States is experiencing severe drought across the Southern Plains, affecting wheat exports, while production in Canada is declining. Fertilizer-related challenges and other factors are prompting shifts toward other crops. Europe is facing hot, dry conditions as well. Wheat harvests are expected to be somewhat smaller, and corn supplies significantly lower. As a result, wheat will increasingly be used as animal feed in parts of Europe,” Glauber said.
He also added: “Until the ports around Odesa are reopened, exports from Ukraine will remain constrained. Unfortunately for producers, transporting goods over land is very expensive, while the prices they receive are already very low. As a result, Ukrainian producers are likely to be hit particularly hard. We saw this in 2022-2023, when producers had to accept very low prices in order to remain competitive.”
Read the article (in Ukrainian)
Parts of the original article were translated to English using CoPilot and reviewed by IFPRI editors for accuracy.