A new study published in the Journal of Cleaner Production presents a novel approach to sustainable agricultural intensification, with promising implications for food security and land conservation in Senegal. Conducted by researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the study explores how farmers’ land-use decisions can be guided by the relative risks and returns of different crops—similar to how financial investments are managed.
Over the past two decades, cropland expansion has accelerated across developing countries, contributing to deforestation and biodiversity loss. Despite gains in productivity, many countries continue to expand cropland to meet growing demand.
Using Senegal as a case study, the authors show that shifting cropland expansion toward high-value crops like fruits and vegetables could reduce the need for new land conversion by up to 68% by 2030. The analysis reveals that current cropland allocation in Senegal—largely focused on low-risk, low-return staple crops—falls short of the “efficient frontier,” a benchmark for optimal agricultural investment allocation. The study also shows that this shift could help Senegal to increase GDP, lower poverty, and improve dietary diversity, all while minimizing emissions and water use.
“Our results show that smarter, more diversified cropland investment can yield better national outcomes without relying on additional farming inputs or new technologies,” said lead author Angga Pradesha, Senior Scientist at IFPRI and PhD candidate at Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. “This is a practical alternative to traditional land-sparing versus land-sharing strategies, as it aims to achieve land savings over time through better use of existing resources.”
“What sets this study apart is the integration of portfolio theory with computable general equilibrium modeling—an approach that allows us to assess investment trade-offs in agriculture while capturing real-world market dynamics,” said Khalid Siddig, co-author and Senior Research Fellow and Program Leader for the Sudan Strategy Support Program at IFPRI. “This combination provides a powerful tool for policymakers to evaluate how different cropland allocations can impact not just farmers, but the entire economy and environment.”
The study encourages policymakers to consider a broader, economywide perspective when planning agricultural investment—one that factors in risk, return, and interconnections across sectors. Targeted support such as infrastructure expansion, improved credit access, and other risk reduction measures could help farmers, especially smallholders, become less risk-averse and more willing to adopt higher-risk, yet potentially higher-return crop portfolios.
“While this study focuses on Senegal, the framework we developed can be adapted to other countries facing similar pressures from cropland expansion and food demand,” said James Thurlow, co-author and Director of Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at IFPRI. “The methodology offers a practical way for governments to explore how smarter land-use decisions—based on crop risk and return—can gradually improve food security and sustainability at scale.”
Funding: This work was carried out under the CGIAR Initiative on Foresight and supported by CGIAR Trust Fund contributors.
Citation: Angga Pradesha, Khalid Siddig, Karl Pauw, James Thurlow (2025). Achieving transformational sustainable land intensification: Integrated general equilibrium and portfolio analysis for Senegal. Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 519, 2025, Article 145929, ISSN 0959-6526, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.145929
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI’s strategic research aims to identify and analyze alternative international and country-led strategies and policies for meeting food and nutrition needs in low- and middle-income countries, with particular emphasis on poor and vulnerable groups in those countries, inclusive development, and sustainability. It is a research center of CGIAR, a worldwide partnership engaged in agricultural research for development. www.ifpri.org
Media inquiries: Evgeniya Anisimova, e.anisimova@cgiar.org, +1 (202) 627 4394