War is exacerbating food prices and shortages abroad, especially for food insecure nations (Washington Post)

Washington Post published an article stating that many Middle Eastern and African countries that rely heavily on Black Sea grains and vegetable oils are already seeing food prices soar. Governments around the globe are struggling to deal with surging agriculture prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Senior research fellow Joseph Glauber said that before the invasion, it was assumed that about 24 million tons of wheat sown last fall would be shipped out of Ukraine starting in the summer. The USDA has downgraded that to 20 million, but it could be as little as 6 or 7 million, “with Russia cutting most of the rail lines down from the main wheat-producing areas to the port, to Odesa and on that side of Crimea.” Egypt has government subsidies and can buy wheat from alternative sources to cushion the blow, but smaller countries such as Lebanon are in a more delicate situation. Lebanon is a “huge wheat importer, and where do they get their wheat? They get it from the Black Sea. There are a lot of knock-on effects that I think don’t show up immediately that we’re beginning to uncover.” He added, “Someone has to absorb that cost, either in terms of governments subsidizing consumers, or consumers absorbing it themselves. And I think the lessons from Arab Spring are that you have to do what you can to keep food prices at reasonable levels in a lot of those countries.”