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Kinya Kaibung’a

Kinya Kaibung’a is a Research Officer with the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in Nairobi, Kenya. She has a keen interest in leveraging machine learning, AI, and other cutting-edge technologies to boost climate resilience and food security in smart agriculture systems.

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Brief

The Iran War and rising fuel and fertilizer prices: Implications for Myanmar’s rice value chain

2026Masias, Ian; Minten, Bart; Goeb, Joseph; Htar, May Thet; Aung, Nilar
Details

The Iran War and rising fuel and fertilizer prices: Implications for Myanmar’s rice value chain

The Iran War has driven up fuel and fertilizer prices in Myanmar and created the risk of shortages in some parts of the country. At the end of June, diesel prices were 34 percent higher and petrol prices 57 percent higher than at the end of February, while reference prices for urea in mid- and late June were 49 and 28 percent higher, respectively, than last monsoon season. Myanmar’s rice value chain depends heavily on fertilizer for paddy production and on fuel for land preparation, irrigation, harvesting, transport, and processing. Alongside an expected El Niño, these higher costs of fuel and fertilizer are likely to lower yields and rice production in the 2026 monsoon season. Higher costs are likely to reach consumers, raising the price of rice, the country’s main staple, and worsening food security at a time of already high humanitarian need. Recommended Actions: Ease forex restrictions and import licensing on fertilizer imports, which raise input prices above those of regional competitors. Promote more efficient use of chemical fertilizer, since prices are likely to stay elevated even after the crisis eases. Support the local production of organic fertilizer and educate farmers on its effective use, to reduce reliance on imported chemical fertilizer. Expand alternative and more reliable energy sources, addressing a constraint that predates the shock. Expand alternative and more reliable energy sources, addressing a constraint that predates the shock.

Year published

2026

Authors

Masias, Ian; Minten, Bart; Goeb, Joseph; Htar, May Thet; Aung, Nilar

Citation

Masias, Ian; Minten, Bart; Goeb, Joseph; Htar, May Thet; and Aung, Nilar. 2026. The Iran War and rising fuel and fertilizer prices: Implications for Myanmar’s rice value chain. Myanmar SSP Research Note 132. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183599

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Inflation; Fuels; Fertilizer Industry; Prices; Agricultural Value Chains; Rice

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

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Report

Myanmar monthly food price report – May 2026

2026Htar, May Thet; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian
Details

Myanmar monthly food price report – May 2026

Rice prices remained relatively stable in May 2026, increasing modestly by 2.2 percent year-on-year and 1.6 percent month-on-month. While national price movements were limited, substantial regional disparities persisted, reflecting differences in production conditions, market access, and transport costs. Most export crop prices showed limited month-on-month movements. Pulses price remained broadly stable, supported by continued demand from India and increased purchasing by traders and wholesalers. In contrast, maize prices continued to rise, driven by strong export demand ahead of the June closure of Thailand’s duty-free import window1 and improving cross-border trade opportunities. Vegetable prices showed mixed trends. Garlic prices continued to increase due to lower domestic production and reduced imported supply, while onion and chili prices recorded modest declines. Potato prices continued to fall amid increased inflows of lower-priced Chinese potatoes and weak domestic demand. Most animal-sourced food prices remained substantially higher than a year ago, led by mutton, beef, and fish. However, month-on-month price movements were generally modest, indicating stable market conditions across most livestock and fish products. The Iran conflict and partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global oil and fertilizer trade. In Myanmar, fuel and urea fertilizer prices remain well above year-earlier levels — even as diesel prices moderated from their April peaks — eroding fertilizer profitability and prompting some farmers to cultivate smaller areas or reduce plowings. If sustained, these conditions point to lower monsoon-season agricultural production. Flood warnings have been issued in recent weeks for parts of the country. Moreover, a new El Niño phase is expected to develop within the coming weeks, increasing the risks of drought in Myanmar.

Year published

2026

Authors

Htar, May Thet; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian

Citation

Htar, May Thet; Minten, Bart; and Masias, Ian. 2026. Myanmar monthly food price report – May 2026. Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report May 2026. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183515

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Food Prices; Food Security; Crops; Animal Source Foods

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Report

Resource thumbnail

Report

Myanmar monthly food price report – April 2026

2026Htar, May Thet; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian
Details

Myanmar monthly food price report – April 2026

Rice prices increased sharply month-on-month in April 2026 (up 8.9 percent) and remained broadly stable year-on-year, suggesting a continued recovery following earlier declines driven by lower international rice prices and strong domestic supply. However, regional price disparities remain significant across major producing and deficit areas. Most export crop prices showed relatively limited month-on-month movement, particularly for pulses, reflecting stable regional demand from China and India during the Thingyan holiday period. In contrast, maize prices increased sharply following expectations of the reopening of the Thailand–Myanmar border trade route. Vegetable prices showed mixed trends in April 2026. Onion, chili, and garlic prices increased modestly month-on-month, partly linked to improving border trade expectations and lower domestic garlic production, while potato prices declined sharply amid increased inflows of imported Chinese potatoes and weak domestic demand. Most animal-sourced food prices remained substantially higher year-on-year, led by mutton, pork, and fish, reflecting continued supply constraints, disease outbreaks, and export demand. Month-on-month changes remained relatively modest, although extreme summer temperatures affected poultry, livestock, and aquaculture production conditions during April. Most animal-sourced food prices remained substantially higher year-on-year, led by mutton, pork, and fish, reflecting continued supply constraints, disease outbreaks, and export demand. Month-on-month changes remained relatively modest, although extreme summer temperatures affected poultry, livestock, and aquaculture production conditions during April.

Year published

2026

Authors

Htar, May Thet; Minten, Bart; Masias, Ian

Citation

Htar, May Thet; Minten, Bart; and Masias, Ian. 2026. Myanmar monthly food price report – April 2026. Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report April 2026. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183116

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Food Prices; Food Security; Crops; Animal Source Foods

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Report

Blogs

Resource-poor rice farmers in Myanmar suffer double impact from political conflict
Research Post
 | 
November 12, 2024

Resource-poor rice farmers in Myanmar suffer double impact from political conflict

By Hiroyuki Takeshima, Zin Wai Aung, Ian Masias, and Bart Minten

Productivity erodes amid turmoil.