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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 480 employees working in over 70 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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partnerships

The Rockefeller Foundation has been working to improve public health, develop vaccines, and eradicate diseases through philanthropic ventures for over a century. The Foundation focuses on four core commitments: to end energy poverty, achieve health for all, nourish the world, and expand economic opportunity. The Foundation works through innovative partnerships and impact investments that find new ways to leverage private capital for social good.

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Projects

School Meals and School-based Actions for People and the Planet

School Meals and School-based Actions for People and the Planet

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Alternative Proteins: Exploring Emerging Markets for New Protein Solutions

Alternative Proteins: Exploring Emerging Markets for New Protein Solutions

Animal-source foods—such as meat, poultry, fish, and dairy—are important components of diverse diets and provide high-quality proteins and other essential nutrients that promote optimal growth……

Publications

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Journal Article

Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture

2026
Gibson, Matthew; Sundiang, Marina; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Diniz Oliveira, Thais; Beier, Felicitas; Benavidez, Lauren; Bos, Astrid; Chepeliev, Maksym; Doelman, Jonathan; Dunston, Shahnila
…more Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hristov, Jordan; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Kozicka, Marta; Kuiper, Marijke; Kyle, Page; de Lange, Thijs; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Chen, David Meng-Chuen; Mishra, Abhijeet; Müller, Christoph; Nelson, Gerald; Palazzo, Amanda; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Springmann, Marco; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tassinari, Gianmaria; Thom, Ferike; Thornton, Philip K.; Tsuchiya, Kazuaki; van Zeist, Willem-Jan; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Van Vuuren, Detlef; van Zanten, Hannah H. E.; Weindl, Isabelle; Wiebe, Keith; Zhao, Xin; Herrero, Mario
Details

Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture

Food systems are a major contributor to exceeding planetary boundaries and poor quality diets are a key mortality risk globally. Projected population and income growth could exacerbate these challenges. In response, there are calls for transformation towards healthy and sustainable food systems. However, the scale and distribution of the impacts of this transformation on agriculture are underexplored. Here we show that, by 2050, the transformation of food systems towards healthy diets (adoption of the EAT–Lancet reference diet), improved productivity and halving of food waste results in a fundamental restructuring of global agriculture, aspects of which break with historical trends. Scenario simulations using a multimodel ensemble of ten global economic models show a 6% median decrease in agricultural land (+1% to −26%) compared with 2020 levels. By 2050, agricultural production would be 17% lower than business-as-usual projections (−2% to −32%) and, economically, the value of this production is US$1.6 trillion (26%) lower (+8% to −58%). Within this, the value of livestock production would be substantially lower than current 2050 projections (−49% to −83%), while vegetable, fruit, nut and legume production value would increase by 23% (−33% to +106%). Results are dependent on the assumed policies to achieve the transformation scenario. We highlight a more active role for food policy to consider the benefits of such a transformation (improved population health and reduced environmental pressures) and navigate the political economy of its impacts.

Year published

2026

Authors

Gibson, Matthew; Sundiang, Marina; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Diniz Oliveira, Thais; Beier, Felicitas; Benavidez, Lauren; Bos, Astrid; Chepeliev, Maksym; Doelman, Jonathan; Dunston, Shahnila; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hristov, Jordan; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Kozicka, Marta; Kuiper, Marijke; Kyle, Page; de Lange, Thijs; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Chen, David Meng-Chuen; Mishra, Abhijeet; Müller, Christoph; Nelson, Gerald; Palazzo, Amanda; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Springmann, Marco; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tassinari, Gianmaria; Thom, Ferike; Thornton, Philip K.; Tsuchiya, Kazuaki; van Zeist, Willem-Jan; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Van Vuuren, Detlef; van Zanten, Hannah H. E.; Weindl, Isabelle; Wiebe, Keith; Zhao, Xin; Herrero, Mario

Citation

Gibson, Matthew; Sundiang, Marina; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Diniz Oliveira, Thais; Beier, Felicitas; et al. 2026. Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture. Nature 657(8130): 156-163. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2

Keywords

Food Systems; Agricultural Transformation; Agriculture; Food Policies; Sustainability; Mathematical Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

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Working Paper

Links between school meal programs and regenerative agriculture: Scoping literature review

2026Hettiarachchi, Upeksha; Nehring, Ryan; Zhang, Wei; Davis, Kristin E.; Einbinder, Aron; Gelli, Aulo
Details

Links between school meal programs and regenerative agriculture: Scoping literature review

School meal programs (SMPs) are among the largest public investments in child well-being worldwide, and they have untapped potential to act as levers for sustainable food systems transformation. This discussion paper provides an overview of evidence on linkages between regenerative agriculture and SMPs, and also presents a framework to guide future analytical work on integrating regenerative agriculture and SMPs for food systems transformation. We conducted a scoping review using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Systematic Reviews (PRISMA). The reviewed literature reveals a geographically diverse but uneven distribution of research on how SMPs incentivize regenerative agriculture. The review reports emerging evidence on the ability of SMPs to generate positive outcomes for livelihoods and community development. That evidence, however, is limited in scope as it is dominated by studies on Brazil’s SMP. Beyond Brazil, our review found no evidence that conclusively establishes a causal relationship between SMPs and the uptake of regenerative agriculture. Much of the literature focuses on smallholder procurement, organic production, or agroecological practices more broadly, with relatively few studies explicitly measuring regenerative outcomes such as soil health restoration, biodiversity gains, or carbon sequestration.

Year published

2026

Authors

Hettiarachchi, Upeksha; Nehring, Ryan; Zhang, Wei; Davis, Kristin E.; Einbinder, Aron; Gelli, Aulo

Citation

Hettiarachchi, Upeksha; Nehring, Ryan; Zhang, Wei; Davis, Kristin; Einbinder, Aron; and Gelli, Aulo. 2026. Links between school meal programs and regenerative agriculture: Scoping literature review. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2429. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183803

Country/Region

Brazil

Keywords

South America; School Feeding; Regenerative Agriculture; Environment; Nutrition

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Report

Cost–benefit analysis of WFP’s integrated resilience programme in Chad (2018–2023)

2026Ulimwengu, John M.; Marivoet, Wim; Hema, Aboubacar; Benin, Samuel; Udahemuka, Francois Regis; Ibrahim, Hagar; Ngaradoumri, Ruth; Salissou, Mamane
Details

Cost–benefit analysis of WFP’s integrated resilience programme in Chad (2018–2023)

1. Integrated resilience programming (IRP) works. The IRP significantly improved household food security, with participating households recording an average 6.6 point increase in Food Consumption Scores (FCS) and reduced reliance on negative coping strategies, and increased resilience capacities, compared with nonparticipants, underscoring the value of multisectoral, layered interventions. 2. High economic returns are achievable in fragile contexts. Overall, the IRP delivered a benefitcost ratio (BCR) of 3.98, meaning every US$1 invested generated nearly US$4 in measurable benefits. 3. Nutrition interventions (treatment of acute malnutrition and blanket supplementary feeding) yield the strongest returns. Treatment of acute malnutrition and preventive nutrition support for women and children produced BCRs ranging from 6:1 to 9:1, validating global evidence on the cost-effectiveness of nutrition investments. 4. Knowledge-based and community-led interventions are transformative. Training and sensitization activities achieved the highest BCR (20:1) for resilience outcomes, highlighting the long-term payoffs of behavior change, empowerment, and knowledge transfer activities. 5. Cereal banks, particularly when combined with Food Assistance for Assets (FFA) through cash transfers, contributed to improved food security and resilience outcomes. The Cereal Bank + FFA Cash Transfers combination achieved balanced gains across key indicators (FCS +9.2, rCSI –3.4, RCS +10.4), highlighting its role in stabilizing seasonal food availability and access. However, despite these outcome improvements, the cost-effectiveness was modest, with BCRs ranging from 0.4 to 0.6—suggesting that while the intervention supports resilience, its financial return per dollar invested may be limited under current implementation models. 6. Bundled interventions outperform stand-alone ones. Layered approaches—particularly FFA Cash Transfers combined with School Feeding—produced the largest FCS gains (+5.7 points; BCR = 2.85), reinforcing WFP’s integrated “three-pronged approach” to resilience-building. 7. Short-term transfers remain essential but less cost-efficient. Lean season food and cash distributions provided vital relief but yielded lower long-term returns (BCR < 1), emphasizing the need to balance immediate humanitarian needs with investments in sustainability. 8. Strategic scaling of high-return interventions is crucial. Scaling nutrition, training, and cereal bank programs, while optimizing the design and sequencing of combined packages, could maximize impact per dollar spent and strengthen resilience dividends. 9. Resilience is a smart investment. The findings demonstrate that resilience programming is not only a humanitarian necessity but also a financially sound strategy—reducing long-term aid dependency, improving livelihoods, and fostering local self-reliance across fragile environments in Chad. 10. Short-term coping behavior responds more slowly than food security and resilience capacity outcomes, highlighting the need for sustained and sequenced support. While IRP interventions generated significant improvements in food consumption and resilience capacity, reductions in severe coping strategies were not observed in the short term. This underscores that behavioral change lags behind stabilization and capacity-building gains, and that resilience impacts should be assessed over longer horizons rather than through immediate reductions in negative coping alone.

Year published

2026

Authors

Ulimwengu, John M.; Marivoet, Wim; Hema, Aboubacar; Benin, Samuel; Udahemuka, Francois Regis; Ibrahim, Hagar; Ngaradoumri, Ruth; Salissou, Mamane

Citation

Ulimwengu, John M.; Marivoet, Wim; Hema, Aboubacar; Benin, Samuel; Udahemuka, Francois Regis; et al. 2026. Cost–benefit analysis of WFP’s integrated resilience programme in Chad (2018–2023). Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183180

Country/Region

Chad

Keywords

Africa; Middle Africa; Cost Benefit Analysis; Resilience; Livelihoods; Policies; Food Security

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Report

Blogs

School meals and school-based actions for people and the planet: Nourishing bodies, minds, and futures
Research Post
 | 
May 01, 2026

School meals and school-based actions for people and the planet: Nourishing bodies, minds, and futures

By Tamsin Zandstra, Aulo Gelli, Daniel Gilligan, and Eleanor Jones

Impacts on education and beyond.

Exploring the promise of regenerative agriculture for school meal programs
Event Post
 | 
November 05, 2025

Exploring the promise of regenerative agriculture for school meal programs

By Kristin Davis, Upeksha Hettiarachchi, Ryan Nehring, Wei Zhang, Claudia Ringler, and Aulo Gelli

Linking sustainable farming practices to childhood nutrition.