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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Agnes Quisumbing

Agnes Quisumbing is a Senior Research Fellow in the Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion Unit. She co-leads a research program that examines how closing the gap between men’s and women’s ownership and control of assets may lead to better development outcomes.

Where we work

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Markets, Trade, and Institutions

Abdullah Mamun

Senior Research Analyst

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Bio

Abdullah Mamun is a Senior Research Analyst in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit of IFPRI. His research interests include economic modeling, price incentives, poverty, and welfare. He analyzes household models for poverty, impact of weather and price shock, and trade policy, among other factors. His recent work includes repurposing agricultural support and policy implications, forecasting export restrictions, and trade effects. Abdullah holds an MS in Economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Publications

Google Scholar Citations

Publications

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Working Paper

Food trade policy and food price volatility

2024Martin, Will; Mamun, Abdullah; Minot, Nicholas
Details

Food trade policy and food price volatility

Food trade barriers in many countries are systematically adjusted to insulate domestic markets from world price changes—a response not predicted by traditional political economy models. In this study, policymakers are assumed to minimize the political costs associated with changing domestic prices and deviating from longer-run political-economy equilibria. Error correction techniques applied to domestic and world price data for rice and wheat collected to measure trade policy distortions allow estimation of policy response parameters. The results suggest that systematic short-run price insulation reduces shocks to domestic prices but sharply increases world price volatility and the costs of trade distortions. However, idiosyncratic domestic price shocks resulting from inefficient policy instruments such as quantitative restrictions increase domestic price volatility relative to the magnified volatility of world prices—frequently outweighing the stabilizing impacts of price insulation. This fundamentally changes our understanding of the impacts of price-insulation—from a zero-sum game where some countries reduce the volatility of their prices using beggar-thy-neighbor policies that raise price volatility elsewhere, into one where price volatility rises in most countries. National policy reforms to move away from discretionary, destabilizing policies could lower costs, reduce volatility in domestic and world prices, and facilitate reform of international trade rules.

Year published

2024

Authors

Martin, Will; Mamun, Abdullah; Minot, Nicholas

Citation

Martin, Will; Mamun, Abdullah; and Minot, Nicholas. 2024. Food trade policy and food price volatility. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2253. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141800

Keywords

Food Prices; Volatility; Consumer Economics; Trade Policies; Behaviour; Econometric Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Rethinking Food Markets

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities

2024Mamun, Abdullah; Laborde Debucquet, David
Details

Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities

This paper investigates the drivers of export restrictions on agricultural products based on an original dataset developed at IFPRI. We focus on four food price crises when export restrictions (e.g., ban, tax, licensing etc.) were applied: the 2008 and 2010 food price crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 crisis associated with the Russia-Ukraine war. Although the justifications for such trade policies have been discussed in the literature, the ability to forecast their implementation remains understudied. The probit model used in this study suggests that the inflation rate has a higher power to predict export restrictions than do international commodity prices. The probability of export restrictions increases more when price change is measured from a reference level in the long interval than the short interval. Among the covariates, agricultural land per capita, commodity share in production and export, weather condition increases the chances of imposing export restrictions. Per capita income, population density, share of agriculture in GDP, urbanization rate, political economy indicators – all have a negative influence on this likelihood.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mamun, Abdullah; Laborde Debucquet, David

Citation

Mamun, Abdullah; and Laborde Debucquet, David. 2024. Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2246. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140687

Keywords

Agricultural Products; Commodities; Covid-19; Export Controls; International Trade; War; Trade Liberalization; Exports

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Farm subsidies and global agricultural productivity

2024Mamun, Abdullah
Details

Farm subsidies and global agricultural productivity

The agriculture sector receives substantial fiscal subsidies in various forms, including through programs that are linked to production and others that are decoupled. As the sector has reached the technology frontier in production over the last three decades or so, particularly in high- and middle-income countries, it is intriguing to investigate the impact of subsidies on productivity at aggregate level. This study examines the impact of subsidies on productivity growth in agriculture globally using a long time series on the nominal rate of assistance for 42 countries that covers over 80 percent of agricultural production. The econometric results show heterogenous effects from various subsidy instruments depending on the choice of productivity measure. Regression results suggest a strong positive effect of input subsidies on both output growth and labor productivity. A positive but relatively small impact of output subsidies is found on output growth only. Subsidies that are mostly decoupled reveal no significant impact on any of the productivity measures.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mamun, Abdullah

Citation

Mamun, Abdullah. 2024. Farm subsidies and global agricultural productivity. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2245. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140668

Keywords

Agricultural Productivity; Agricultural Technology; Econometrics; Globalization; Input Output Analysis; Subsidies

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Rethinking Food Markets

Record type

Working Paper

Blogs

Trade policy and food price volatility: Beggar thy neighbor or beggar thyself?
IFPRI Blog
 | 
June 07, 2024

Trade policy and food price volatility: Beggar thy neighbor or beggar thyself?

By Will Martin, Abdullah Mamun, Nick Minot, and Rob Vos

The downsides of emergency trade measures.

Global cocoa market sees steep price rise amid supply shortfall
IFPRI Blog
 | 
April 01, 2024

Global cocoa market sees steep price rise amid supply shortfall

By Joseph Glauber and Abdullah Mamun

Weather and other factors trigger volatility.

Shaping global agendas: The IFPRI Food Security Portal’s pathways to impact
IFPRI Blog
 | 
March 14, 2024

Shaping global agendas: The IFPRI Food Security Portal’s pathways to impact

By Alix Underwood, Betina Dimaranan, Abdullah Mamun, and Rob Vos

Data tools provide key insights in a time of crisis.

Events

ICTforAg 2024: Localizing impact
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

May 28, 2024, 9:00 – 5:00 pm

ICTforAg 2024: Localizing impact

Event: May 28, 2024 – 9:00am to 5:00pm EDT. This event explores the localization of ICT, responsible AI in agriculture, the potential for AI to increase farm profitability, empowering citizen science, and harnessing digital solutions for sustainable and regenerative farming practices.

Implications of El Niño 2023/24 for Africa South of the Sahara
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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November 29, 2023, 7:30 – 9:00 am

Implications of El Niño 2023/24 for Africa South of the Sahara

Virtual Event: November 29, 2023 at 7:30am-9:00am EST. IFPRI in collaboration with USAID FEWS NET and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, is hosting a presentation on the potential impact of the upcoming El Niño on the global agrifood system, with special emphasis on low-income countries in Africa South of the Sahara. The event will be organized around four short talks.

A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

October 18, 2023, 9:00 – 10:30 am

A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls

Virtual IFPRI-AMIS Seminar Series: October 18, 2023 at 9:00am-10:30am EDT. At an August meeting of ASEAN countries, leaders committed to maintain an unimpeded flow of agricultural products and refrain from using “unjustified” trade barriers. However, these commitments may be undermined by a strengthening El Niño in the Pacific, which threatens to cut the rice production of key Asian suppliers and push prices sharply higher. This webinar will provide a brief update on the global rice situation.

News

January 18, 2024 | In the News

Red Sea attacks reverberate in food and ag trade (Successful Farming) 

Successful Farming quotes the IFPRI blog post on the Impacts of Red Sea shipping disruptions on global food security by senior research fellow Joseph Glauber and senior research analyst Abdullah Mamun.  According to the article, Houthi attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea are disrupting grain shipments from Europe, Ukraine, and Russia. “Trade disruptions are most likely to impact […]

October 02, 2023 | In the News

Asia’s rice squeeze after India export ban: 4 things to know (Nikkei Asia) 

Nikkei Asia quotes Abdullah Mamun, a senior research analyst at the International Food Policy Research Institute, in an article analyzing the reaction of Asian markets on the recent India’s rice export ban.   “India’s decision last month to ban exports of rice sent shock waves through the Asian market for the staple food, inflating August prices by […]

August 26, 2023 | In the News

The soaring price of rice is affecting many parts of the world where it’s the staple diet (NPR)

Abdullah Al Mamun (IFPRI) spoke with NPR about the Indian export policies and what prompted the disruption in rice crops over the past year.