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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Kinya Kaibung’a

Kinya Kaibung’a is a Research Officer with the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in Nairobi, Kenya. She has a keen interest in leveraging machine learning, AI, and other cutting-edge technologies to boost climate resilience and food security in smart agriculture systems.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Andrew Comstock

Senior Research Analyst

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Bio

Andrew Comstock is a Senior Research Analyst with the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit based in Washington and a member of the Unit’s consumer behavior and dietary change workstream. His research focuses on food systems transformation and demand system estimation in Africa and Asia. He has provided research support to the Pakistan, Malawi, and Nigeria country programs – among others – while his recent work has focused on cross-cutting issues related to food security and diets. Andrew received his master’s in Internation Economics and Development from the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University.

Publications

Publications

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Working Paper

Policy responses to rising global fuel prices: A rapid assessment for Papua New Guinea

2026Pal, Barun Deb; Andam, Kwaw S.; Arua, Mailau; Comstock, Andrew; Pepae, Sanja; Kumung, Michael
Details

Policy responses to rising global fuel prices: A rapid assessment for Papua New Guinea

Global crude oil prices have surged following the war in Iran and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, creating a dual economic challenge for Papua New Guinea (PNG). Rising import costs have triggered severe imported inflation, while Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and crude oil exports deliver windfall revenues. In response, the government introduced a K1 billion (USD 230 million) relief package to freeze fuel prices and waive excise duties and the Goods and Services Tax (GST). This study examines three policy issues: the pass-through of higher import costs to domestic food and non-food prices and their effects on food consumption; the broader macroeconomic implications of sustained global fuel shocks; and the fiscal trade-offs of fuel subsidies against LNG export gains. Short-run price multiplier analysis shows rapid transmission of import costs to consumer prices and household microsimulation analysis shows commensurate effects on household food consumption. Medium-term Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model simulations reveal PNG’s dependence on refined petroleum imports leaves GDP vulnerable to contraction, even as LNG revenues rise. Windfalls accrue mainly to capital-intensive resource firms, while real exchange rate appreciation undermines competitiveness. Fuel subsidies stabilize consumer prices but cannot offset wider macroeconomic volatility. Policy options include recalibrating subsidies to allow gradual price adjustment, maintaining a managed exchange rate with controlled depreciation, and diversifying exports beyond LNG to strengthen resilience against external shocks.

Year published

2026

Authors

Pal, Barun Deb; Andam, Kwaw S.; Arua, Mailau; Comstock, Andrew; Pepae, Sanja; Kumung, Michael

Citation

Pal, Barun Deb; Andam, Kwaw S.; Arua, Mailau; Comstock, Andrew; Pepae, Sanja; and Kumung, Michael. 2026. Policy responses to rising global fuel prices: A rapid assessment for Papua New Guinea. Papua New Guinea Working Paper. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/185127

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Capacity Building; Policies; Fuels; Energy Poverty; Assessment; Oil and Gas Industries; Prices; Energy Prices; Models; Agricultural Production

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Brief

Does Malawi’s exchange rate regime keep prices low? Evidence and policy implications

2026Changaya, Frederick; Comstock, Andrew; De Weerdt, Joachim; Duchoslav, Jan; Jamali, Andrew; Kamanga, Frank; Kumchulesi, Grace; Pauw, Karl
Details

Does Malawi’s exchange rate regime keep prices low? Evidence and policy implications

The current exchange rate regime in Malawi is untenable. It results in multiple effective parallel rates, which impose significant costs on the economy and the daily lives of citizens. A key concern underpinning the existence of the regime is that its removal would trigger rampant inflation and worsen livelihoods. However, the widespread importation of both food and nonfood products at informal exchange rates means that the average citizen derives little real benefit from the maintenance of the official rate. After two major fuel price hikes in recent months, pump prices have nearly converged with the cost that would prevail at market-determined exchange rates. Drawing on a combination of price multiplier and food demand simulations, this policy note shows that an exchange rate regime rationalization – through devaluing the official exchange rate to eliminate the informal premium and allowing the Malawi kwacha to trade at market-clearing levels – would not lead to runaway inflation or harm household welfare. Recent fuel price increases – in October 2025 and January this year – have pre-emptively absorbed much of the inflationary impact that would have been associated with exchange rate reform. Our analysis documents the direct, short-run effects of exchange rate unification on domestic prices and finds them to be relatively modest. Longer-term economic growth and sustained price stability will hinge on the effective execution of a coherent set of complementary reforms. Exchange rate unification is a necessary component of this package, but it is not sufficient. Implemented in isolation or treated as a one-off devaluation followed by business as usual, it will bring little relief. It must be accompanied by sound fiscal and monetary policy and sustained export growth to restore macroeconomic stability. We do not discuss the trade-offs inherent to these accompanying measures, as they have been addressed at length in AfDB et al. (2025) and Engel et al. (2025). Critically, there must be a credible and durable switch toward a more flexible and transparent exchange rate regime. It will take time for exports and growth to pick up after a devaluation, and whether they do will depend on economic actors believing that macroeconomic conditions will remain stable over the lifetime of their investments. It will require careful preparation to get the cocktail right. Politically, the current administration might just have one shot at this: failure will make future reform attempts much harder.

Year published

2026

Authors

Changaya, Frederick; Comstock, Andrew; De Weerdt, Joachim; Duchoslav, Jan; Jamali, Andrew; Kamanga, Frank; Kumchulesi, Grace; Pauw, Karl

Citation

Changaya, Frederick; Comstock, Andrew; De Weerdt, Joachim; Duchoslav, Jan; Jamali, Andrew; et al. 2026. Does Malawi’s exchange rate regime keep prices low? Evidence and policy implications. MaSSP Policy Note 56. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/181860

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Exchange Rate; Prices; Controlled Prices; Price Policies

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

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Blog Post

The future of food demand: Evidence from a global meta-analysis and trend projections

2026Roche, Maxime; Comstock, Andrew; Ecker, Olivier
Details

The future of food demand: Evidence from a global meta-analysis and trend projections

Understanding how food demand responds to income and price changes is essential for anticipating global food needs and expected consumption patterns, and for designing effective food policies. Two key parameters for this are the income elasticity of demand—the percent change in consumption in response to a percent change in people’s income; and the price elasticity of demand—the percent change in consumption in response to a percent food price change. These are essential inputs in a wide range of economic models.

Year published

2026

Authors

Roche, Maxime; Comstock, Andrew; Ecker, Olivier

Citation

Roche, Maxime; Comstock, Andrew; Ecker, Olivier. 2026. The future of food demand: Evidence from a global meta-analysis and trend projections. IFPRI Blog Post. https://www.ifpri.org/blog/the-future-of-food-demand-evidence-from-a-global-meta-analysis-and-trend-projections/

Keywords

Food Access; Demand

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Blog Post

Events

The E-FooD Dataset and Food Security Simulators for Kenya and Nigeria: Innovative Tools to Support National Policies and Strategies
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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December 7, 2023, 8:00 – 9:00 am

The E-FooD Dataset and Food Security Simulators for Kenya and Nigeria: Innovative Tools to Support National Policies and Strategies

Virtual Event: December 7, 2023 – 8:00 AM- 9:00 AM EST. This webinar, organized by the CGIAR Initiative on National Policies and Strategies (NPS), introduces the E-FooD dataset and FSS for Kenya and Nigeria, showcases their applications, and discusses the role that such tools can play in policymaking.