Subscribe

Back

Who we are

With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Kinya Kaibung’a

Kinya Kaibung’a is a Research Officer with the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in Nairobi, Kenya. She has a keen interest in leveraging machine learning, AI, and other cutting-edge technologies to boost climate resilience and food security in smart agriculture systems.

Back

What we do

Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

Research topics

Projects and impact

Food Security Portal

Modeling tools

What’s new

Where we work

Back

Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 480 employees working in over 70 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

IFPRI Regional Programs

IFPRI Country and Regional Offices

Research by country and region

Subscribe

experts

Markets, Trade, and Institutions

Brendan Rice

Research Specialist

Follow

Brendan

at:

ORCiD

Bio

Brendan Rice is a Research Specialist in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit with experience in agribusiness, market analysis, and value chain development. He works primarily on food and input price monitoring, food crisis risk, and market intelligence for seed systems development. Before joining IFPRI, he worked at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) on agribusiness-related projects and at the social enterprise KadAfrica. He holds a master’s degree in sustainable international agriculture (global agribusiness and development economics) from the University of Göttingen.

LinkedIn

CV

Publications

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Exploring good gaps for right-sizing food assistance: Methods, data challenges, and lessons learned

2026Rice, Brendan; Vos, Rob
Details

Exploring good gaps for right-sizing food assistance: Methods, data challenges, and lessons learned

Accurate measurement of the depth of acute food insecurity remains a major gap in current global monitoring systems. While the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) identifies the scale and geographic distribution of populations in crisis, it does not quantify the magnitude of food intake shortfalls faced by affected populations. This paper outlines an exploratory data exercise that tests three proxy approaches to estimating food gaps using available IPC and DIEM data. First, we derive back-of-envelope caloric deficit estimates by IPC phase using thresholds from the Household Economy Approach. Second, we assess whether widely used dietary diversity, experiential food insecurity, and coping capacity indicators can serve as proxies for calorie deficits by analyzing their cross-indicator correlations. Third, using microdata from FAO’s DIEM surveys matched to IPC area phases, we estimate indicator-specific shortfalls using a Foster-Greer-Thorbecke gap framework and translate these into food assistance estimates. The results show that proxy indicators cannot be used interchangeably to estimate caloric shortfalls, reflecting weak cross-indicator correlations consistent with the existing literature. Within-phase heterogeneity is wide and data limitations are substantial. The paper documents these approaches and their limitations as an intermediate step. The paper provides several recommendations for improving data collection that would allow for more reliable food gap estimates using the framework presented in this paper, which in turn could then operationalized for humanitarian agencies to ‘right size’ and better target food assistance to populations facing acute food insecurity.

Year published

2026

Authors

Rice, Brendan; Vos, Rob

Citation

Rice, Brendan; and Vos, Rob. 2026. Exploring food gaps for right-sizing food assistance: Methods, data challenges, and lessons learned. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2414. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/182633

Keywords

Food Security; Dietary Diversity; Humanitarian Assistance; Aid Programmes; Targeting

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Resource thumbnail

Blog Post

The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production

2026Hebebrand, Charlotte; Glauber, Joseph; Vos, Rob; Rice, Brendan
Details

The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production

Key takeaways • Shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have already driven sharp increases in fertilizer and energy prices. • Higher prices could reduce fertilizer use and lower crop yields if the disruption persists, posing significant food security risks. • Most vulnerable are countries heavily dependent on Persian Gulf fertilizer and natural gas —especially in Africa and South Asia. • The fertilizer sector remains very vulnerable to future supply and trade shocks , and efforts to boost resilience should be stepped up.

Year published

2026

Authors

Hebebrand, Charlotte; Glauber, Joseph; Vos, Rob; Rice, Brendan

Citation

Hebebrand, Charlotte; Glauber, Joseph; Vos, Rob; Rice, Brendan. 2026. The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production. IFPRI Blog Post. https://www.ifpri.org/blog/the-iran-wars-impacts-on-global-fertilizer-markets-and-food-production/

Keywords

Iran; Middle East; Northern Africa; Agriculture Production; Food Access; Fragility; Conflicts; Markets; Value Chains

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Blog Post

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability

2025Vos, Rob; Glauber, Joseph W.; Hebebrand, Charlotte; Rice, Brendan
Details

Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability

During 2021–2022, spiking fertilizer prices raised fears that fertilizer application would drop around the world, leading to lower crop production, higher food prices, and greater food insecurity. Even writing mid-2024, a paucity of data impedes a full assessment of how the underlying global market shocks may have affected farmers and food production around the world. Using proxy indicators for fertilizer demand and farm profitability, we find that despite the steep increase in input costs, global demand for fertilizer fell only modestly during the 2022–2023 crop cycle, suggesting many (commercial) farmers were able and willing to absorb increased input costs in the context of generally good harvest prospects and, at the time, high crop prices. However, we also find the fertilizer price spikes have not been felt equally, with many farmers in Africa estimated to have been affected more adversely, even though with varied impacts also amongst those farmers.

Year published

2025

Authors

Vos, Rob; Glauber, Joseph W.; Hebebrand, Charlotte; Rice, Brendan

Citation

Vos, Rob; Glauber, Joseph W.; Hebebrand, Charlotte; and Rice, Brendan. 2025. Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability. Food Policy 133(May 2025): 102790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102790

Keywords

Shock; Fertilizers; Markets; Prices; Profitability; Global Value Chains; Supply Chain Disruptions

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102790 Source record

Project

Rethinking Food Markets

Record type

Journal Article

Blogs

The Iran war's impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production
Issue Post
 | 
April 01, 2026

The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production

By Charlotte Hebebrand, Joseph Glauber, Rob Vos, and Brendan Rice

Supply chain disruptions reverberate.

High global phosphate prices pose potential food security risks
Issue Post
 | 
March 20, 2025

High global phosphate prices pose potential food security risks

By Delphine Leconte-Demarsy and Brendan Rice

Pandemic and Ukraine crisis impacts linger.

Risk of famine remains high in Gaza
Issue Post
 | 
June 28, 2024

Risk of famine remains high in Gaza

By Rob Vos, Sara Gustafson, Sediqa Zaki, and Brendan Rice

After a reprieve, more dangerous conditions are reemerging.

View all Blogs

Events

ICTforAg 2024: Localizing impact
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

May 28, 2024, 9:00 – 5:00 pm

ICTforAg 2024: Localizing impact

Event: May 28, 2024 – 9:00am to 5:00pm EDT. This event explores the localization of ICT, responsible AI in agriculture, the potential for AI to increase farm profitability, empowering citizen science, and harnessing digital solutions for sustainable and regenerative farming practices.

News

June 12, 2025 | Press Release

New special issue of Food Policy examines fertilizer and soil health policies in the wake of global crises

Key findings were presented and discussed during the IFPRI policy seminar on June 11.