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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Elodie Becquey

Elodie Becquey is a Senior Research Fellow in the Nutrition, Diets, and Health Unit, based in IFPRI’s West and Central Africa office in Senegal. She has over 15 years of research experience in diet, nutrition, and food security in Africa, including countries such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, and Tanzania.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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Foresight and Policy Modeling

Sherwin Gabriel

Scientist

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Bio

Sherwin is a Scientist in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Pretoria, South Africa. He works as part of the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight team, where he participates in the Micronutrient Action Policy Support (MAPS) project; the development and application of new features of IFPRI’s IMPACT model; and work on climate variability, energy, and related policy research in southern Africa. Sherwin continues to contribute to economic policy research in South Africa as part of the Southern Africa-Towards Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED) program. Sherwin has worked on economywide simulation modeling since 2009 and holds a master’s degree in Economics from the University of Pretoria.

Publications

Publications

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Journal Article

Affordability and nutritional challenges for the future of EAT diets: An economic modelling analysis

2025Mishra, Abhijeet; Sulser, Timothy B.; Gabriel, Sherwin; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Headey, Derek D.; Herrero, Mario; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Wiebe, Keith D.
Details

Affordability and nutritional challenges for the future of EAT diets: An economic modelling analysis

Background Affordability limits healthy diet adoption, especially in low-income settings, yet dietary shifts are key for transition to sustainable food systems. This study models how a diet in line with the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission dietary transition might impact calorie availability, share of income spent on food, nutrition availability, and food prices. Methods We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to estimate food price changes under three alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and global adoption of a 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet by 2050. We analyse price shifts for the two cheapest commodities per food group, in each region, weighted on calorie availability per dollar. Additionally, we assess gaps between nutrient availability and reference nutrient intake and changes in the share of income spent on food for the whole diet. Findings Adoption of the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet leads to heterogeneous impacts on the share of income spent on food and nutrient availability, with gains in folate, iron, and zinc, but declines in vitamin A by 2050. The combined price index for the cheapest two commodities declines by 2050 compared with 2020 in both higher-income and lower-income countries. Interpretation Although dietary shifts towards the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet could offset some of the increases in prices seen in a business-as-usual world, we observed unintended effects on nutrient availability ratios, especially in lower-income countries. The decreasing price index for the cheapest two commodities reflects market adjustments to changes in demand and supply under scenario assumptions aligned with 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission goals for jointly improved human and environmental health. The observed nutrient deficiencies suggest the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet limits on animal-sourced foods might be too strict for lower-income countries, which could exacerbate nutrient deficiencies in contexts where access to animal sourced foods is already low (eg, vitamin A), especially if there is no access to supplementation for meeting these nutritional requirements or other sources of dietary nutrients.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mishra, Abhijeet; Sulser, Timothy B.; Gabriel, Sherwin; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Headey, Derek D.; Herrero, Mario; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Wiebe, Keith D.

Citation

Mishra, Abhijeet; Sulser, Timothy B.; Gabriel, Sherwin; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; et al. 2025. Affordability and nutritional challenges for the future of EAT diets: An economic modelling analysis. Lancet Planetary Health 9(10): 101325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101325

Keywords

Food Affordability; Nutrition; Modelling; Trace Elements

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101325 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

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Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa?

2025Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie; Hartley, Faaiqa; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Gabriel, Sherwin
Details

What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa?

Food demand in East and southern Africa (ESA) is expected to be three to nine times higher by 2050 (relative to 2010), depending on the emerging economic and demographic trends. To meet demand, agrifood systems (AFS) in the region must expand and diversify. Consumption demand for meats and fruits and vegetables will more than triple by 2050, creating economic opportunities but also inclusivity challenges. Transformations in AFS must increase the sector’s resilience to supply-side shocks that threaten food security and nutrition. Favorable policies and investments that are country-specific, inclusive, and sustainable will be powerful tools to shape and influence AFS’s transition in the region.

Year published

2025

Authors

Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie; Hartley, Faaiqa; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Gabriel, Sherwin

Citation

Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie; Hartley, Faaiqa; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; and Gabriel, Sherwin. 2025. What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Two: What Do We Know About the Future of Food System in Selected Regions? Chapter 18, Pp. 103-108. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175455

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Southern Africa; Food Systems; Agrobiodiversity; Demand; Supply Balance; Food Security; Agricultural Production; Income Distribution; Nutrition; Trade

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

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Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food trade?

2025Glauber, Joseph W.; Gabriel, Sherwin
Details

What do we know about the future of food trade?

Trade in agriculture and food products increased dramatically over the past 20 years, driven by population and income growth that resulted in consumption exceeding production in many countries. Productivity growth grew as well, allowing countries with surplus production to meet global import demand. Reforms in the global trading system have reduced import barriers, also encouraging trade. As a result, imports as a percentage of total consumption have increased steadily (particularly in low-income countries) and forecasts for the near term (next 10 years) as well as longer-term projections (to 2050) suggest that these trends will continue. Climate change will pose continued challenges as production shifts due to increased temperatures and more variable rainfall. Trade will be necessary to help mitigate the impacts of these changes, so the global trading system must remain open and free of harmful distortions.

Year published

2025

Authors

Glauber, Joseph W.; Gabriel, Sherwin

Citation

Glauber, Joseph W.; and Gabriel, Sherwin. 2025. What do we know about the future of food trade? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 13, Pp. 73-80. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175406

Keywords

Trade; Agricultural Trade; World Markets; Cereals; Maize; Rice; Wheat; Agricultural Products; Trade Policies; Oil Crops

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Blogs

Extraordinary COVID-19 social support programs in South Africa yield economic benefits during the pandemic period
IFPRI Blog
 | 
August 30, 2021

Extraordinary COVID-19 social support programs in South Africa yield economic benefits during the pandemic period

By Sherwin Gabriel, Dirk van Seventer, Channing Arndt, Robert J. Davies, Laurence Harris, Sherman Robinson, and Jenna Wilf

Modeling shows emergency safety net programs boost GDP during pandemic.

Assessing the toll of COVID-19 lockdown measures on the South African economy
IFPRI Blog
 | 
May 06, 2020

Assessing the toll of COVID-19 lockdown measures on the South African economy

By Channing Arndt, Sherwin Gabriel, and Sherman Robinson

Modeling shows GDP and incomes—particularly among low-income households—falling dramatically.

Events

The Impact of Global Change on Food Security in 2050: Assessing the Risks Through the Lens of Food Trade
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

November 19, 2025, 9:30 – 11:00 am

The Impact of Global Change on Food Security in 2050: Assessing the Risks Through the Lens of Food Trade

Trade is crucial to achieving food security. The Jameel Index for Food Trade and Vulnerability (Jameel Index) is a valuable new tool to guide policy and investment decisions that support sustainable international development and food security through food trade. The Index provides food trade vulnerability scores for more than 180 countries by synthesizing global indicators […]

News

June 11, 2020 | In the News

Who has been hit hardest by South Africa’s lockdown? We found some answers (The Conversation)

The Conversation published an op-ed by EPTD Division Director Channing Arndt, Senior Research Fellow Emeritus Sherman Robinson, and Scientist Sherwin Gabriel that stated in the case of South Africa, the lockdown policies are relatively stringent, and the economic impacts large. Along with analysis and recommendations, the authors said, “With a catastrophic global pandemic coming on top of more than a […]