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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

Erick Boy

researcher spotlight

Erick Boy

Erick Boy is the Chief Nutritionist in the HarvestPlus section of the Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit. As head of nutrition for the HarvestPlus Program since 2008, he has led research that has generated scientific evidence on biofortified staple crops as efficacious and effective interventions to help address iron, vitamin A, and zinc deficiency in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and South Asia.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Timothy Sulser

Senior Scientist

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Bio

Timothy Sulser is a Senior Scientist in IFPRI’s Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit and works with the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight. He joined IFPRI in 2004 to work on the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) and continues engagement with this important tool. His work at IFPRI has focused on agricultural and food policy issues, particularly on scenarios of climate change, technology advancement, biofuels, hunger and malnutrition, and natural resource use in Latin America, East and South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Tim has worked in community development, agricultural extension, and farming systems modeling in Latin America. He holds an MA in Tropical Conservation and Development from the University of Florida and an MSc in Agricultural and Resource Economics from the University of California–Davis.

Language spoken: English, Spanish

Publications

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IFPRI’s Modeling Systems

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Publications

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Journal Article

Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa

2025
Ittersum, Martin K. van; Alimagham, Seyyedmajid; Silva, João Vasco; Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel; Baijukya, Frederick P.; Bala, Abdullahi; Chikowo, Regis; Grassini, Patricio; de Groot, Hugo L.E.; Nshizirungu, Aphrodis
…more Mahamane Soulé, Abdelkader; Sulser, Timothy B.; Taulya, Godfrey; Amor Tenorio, Fatima; Tesfaye, Kindie; Yuan, Shen; van Loon, Marloes P.
Details

Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the world’s largest projected increase in demand for food. Increased dependence on imports makes SSA vulnerable to geopolitical and economic risks, while further expansion of agricultural land is environmentally harmful. Cereals, in particular, maize, millet, rice, sorghum, and wheat, take nearly 50% of the cropland and 43% of the calories and proteins consumed in the region. Demand is projected to double until 2050. Here, we assess recent developments in cereal self-sufficiency and provide outlooks until 2050 under different intensification, area expansion, and climate change scenarios. We use detailed data for ten countries. Cereal self-sufficiency increased between 2010 and 2020 from 84 to 92% despite the 29% population increase. The production increase was achieved by increased yields per hectare (44%), area expansion (34%), and a shift from millet to the higher yielding maize (22%). Outlooks for 2050 are less pessimistic than earlier assessments because of the larger 2020 baseline area, higher shares of maize and somewhat less steep projected population increase. Yet, to halt further area expansion, a drastic trend change in annual yield increase from the present 20 to 58 kg ha−1 y−1 is needed to achieve cereal self-sufficiency. While such yield increases have been achieved elsewhere and are feasible given the yield potentials in SSA, they require structural changes and substantial agronomic, socioeconomic, and political investments. We estimate that amounts of added nitrogen need to at least triple to achieve such yield improvements, but it is essential that this comes with improved context-specific agronomy.

Year published

2025

Authors

Ittersum, Martin K. van; Alimagham, Seyyedmajid; Silva, João Vasco; Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel; Baijukya, Frederick P.; Bala, Abdullahi; Chikowo, Regis; Grassini, Patricio; de Groot, Hugo L.E.; Nshizirungu, Aphrodis; Mahamane Soulé, Abdelkader; Sulser, Timothy B.; Taulya, Godfrey; Amor Tenorio, Fatima; Tesfaye, Kindie; Yuan, Shen; van Loon, Marloes P.

Citation

Ittersum, Martin K. van; Alimagham, Seyyedmajid; Silva, João Vasco; Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel; Baijukya, Frederick P.; et al. 2025. Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122(24): e2423669122. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2423669122

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Cereals; Self-sufficiency; Crop Yield; Food Supply; Climate Change; Yield Potential

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2423669122 Source record

Project

Excellence in Agronomy

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

Global analysis reveals persistent shortfalls and regional differences in availability of foods needed for health

2025Costlow, Leah; Herforth, Anna; Sulser, Timothy B.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Masters, William A.
Details

Global analysis reveals persistent shortfalls and regional differences in availability of foods needed for health

Sufficient food is available in the world for all people to consume sufficient calories, but not healthy diets. This study traces historical and projected changes in global food systems toward alignment with the new Healthy Diet Basket (HDB) used by UN agencies and the World Bank to monitor the cost and affordability of healthy diets worldwide. Using the HDB as a standard to measure adequacy of national, regional and global supply-demand balances, we find substantial but inconsistent progress toward closer alignment with dietary guidelines, with large global shortfalls in fruits, vegetables, and legumes, nuts, and seeds, and large disparities among regions in use of animal source foods. Projections show that additional investments aimed at reducing chronic hunger would modestly accelerate improvements in adequacy where shortfalls are greatest, revealing the need for complementary investments to increase access to under-consumed food groups especially in low-income countries.

Year published

2025

Authors

Costlow, Leah; Herforth, Anna; Sulser, Timothy B.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Masters, William A.

Citation

Costlow, Leah; Herforth, Anna; Sulser, Timothy B.; Cenacchi, Nicola; and Masters, William A. 2025 Global analysis reveals persistent shortfalls and regional differences in availability of foods needed for health. Global Food Security 44(March 2025): 100825. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100825

Keywords

Food Security; Healthy Diets; Food Systems; Food Supply; Health

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100825 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

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Report

Strategic modeling for future agriculture in Asia

2025Cenacchi, Nicola; Sulser, Timothy B.
Details

Strategic modeling for future agriculture in Asia

This APO report pinpoints the declining agricultural productivity situation in APO economies since 2019 and explores how key measures could accelerate progress achieving food security and mitigating undernourishment by improving calorie availability per person. Key challenges include slowed agricultural productivity, climate change, land degradation, insufficient R&D investment, water scarcity, and inefficiencies in markets. The report examines measures such as policy interventions and investments in R&D, irrigation, and water use efficiency to enhance productivity, food security, and sustainable resource use. Such measures could accelerate progress toward achieving food security and mitigating undernourishment by improving calorie availability per person.

Year published

2025

Authors

Cenacchi, Nicola; Sulser, Timothy B.

Citation

Cenacchi, Nicola; and Sulser, Timothy B. 2025. Strategic modeling for future agriculture in Asia. Tokyo, Japan: Asian Productivity Organization. https://doi.org/10.61145/qprg4794

Keywords

Asia; Agricultural Productivity; Food Security; Conflicts; Covid-19; Climate Change; Food Prices

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.61145/qprg4794 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Report

Blogs

COVID-19-related trade restrictions on rice and wheat could drive up prices and increase hunger
IFPRI Blog
 | 
May 15, 2020

COVID-19-related trade restrictions on rice and wheat could drive up prices and increase hunger

By Timothy Sulser and Shahnila Dunston

Modeling suggests export bans intended to buttress domestic food supplies could have wide impacts.

Effects of rising CO2 on protein, iron, and zinc availability in global diets
IFPRI Blog
 | 
July 18, 2019

Effects of rising CO2 on protein, iron, and zinc availability in global diets

By Nicola Cenacchi and Timothy Sulser

New research shows climate change will slow the growth in the global availability of key nutrients provided by important crops such as wheat, maize, and legumes.

Ambitious steps to control climate change may pose food security risks in the near term
IFPRI Blog
 | 
November 27, 2018

Ambitious steps to control climate change may pose food security risks in the near term

By Keith Wiebe and Timothy Sulser

Essential climate mitigation efforts, such as carbon taxes, may create problems for the food system that should be addressed, a study shows.

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Events

How does agricultural productivity growth affect agrifood system transformation goals? Exploring trade-offs using IMPACT
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

July 9, 2024, 9:00 – 10:00 am

How does agricultural productivity growth affect agrifood system transformation goals? Exploring trade-offs using IMPACT

Agrifood systems are complex and changing, so it is critical to explore different potential futures to inform decisions today that can put the world on a better path for livelihoods, health, and the environment. In the coming decades, changes in population, income, and diets will put increasing pressure on agrifood systems to meet evolving food […]

Aflatoxins: The Climate, Gender and Nutritional Linkages (under the GCAN Initiative)
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

September 12, 2019, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Aflatoxins: The Climate, Gender and Nutritional Linkages (under the GCAN Initiative)

Aflatoxin levels and impacts are expected to increase with higher temperatures and increased water stress, particularly in tropical and sub-tropical climates. Two key avenues to address this challenge include minimizing contamination in the growing cycle through the use of good agricultural practices and by mitigating toxin development in the postharvest supply chain; and reducing the […]

Crop Genetic Diversity Conversation, Exchange, and Use: A Convening on Measuring the Global Consequences of Inaction
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

August 26 to 27, 2019

Crop Genetic Diversity Conversation, Exchange, and Use: A Convening on Measuring the Global Consequences of Inaction

DAY 1: AUGUST 26, 2019 Session 1: Welcome and Introductions The Genesis of a Convening on Measuring the Global Consequences of Inaction on Crop Genetic Diversity Why we Need to Understand the Costs of Inaction on the Conservation, Exchange, and Use of Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture Q&A Session 2: From Crop Genetic […]

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News

June 13, 2025 | In the News

Sub-Saharan Africa can achieve grain self-sufficiency by 2050, new study finds

New research published in PNAS shows that it is feasible without further expanding agricultural land. The study, led by Wageningen University & Research (WUR) in collaboration with partners including IFPRI, offers more optimistic projections compared to earlier research.

January 09, 2023 | In the News

Loss of pollinators causing more than 400,000 early deaths a year: study (CTV News) 

Pollination loss may be leading to hundreds of thousands of excess deaths worldwide as supplies of healthy food become less plentiful writes CTV News in an article on the recent study by Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, the International Food Policy Research Institute, and partners.   This loss and the resulting health complications that […]

December 18, 2022 | In the News

The link between bees and human mortality has been established, and it can be called an apocalypse (Wolnemedia)

Wolnemedia (Poland) published an article on the new Harvard University School of Health and partners’ new study on pollinators. Reducing the number of pollinators actually removes healthy food from the global diet and thus increases the number of chronic diseases that cause increased mortality. The analysis also showed that low-income countries lost significant amounts from […]

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