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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics.

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IFPRI currently has more than 480 employees working in over 70 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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TOPIC

Resilience

Economic, climate, and health shocks as well as conflict can be devastating for poor and vulnerable people who have limited resources and options. These shocks include food price hikes and financial crises, environmental and natural disasters, armed and political conflicts, and disease outbreaks. They can intensify the risk of food and nutrition insecurity, drive people into poverty or prevent them from moving out of poverty, and spur migration. Building resilience means helping individuals, households, communities, and countries prepare for, mitigate, cope with, and recover from shocks—so that they can not only bounce back but even become better off.

IFPRI’s resilience research examines the impact of different shocks and explores possible interventions to enhance human capital, policies for responding to and recovering from crises, and ways to create resilient food systems, economies, and societies. This includes extensive work on climate change, food prices, migration, and crises, including COVID-19 and the food, fuel, and fertilizer price increases associated with the Russia-Ukraine war. Research on women’s empowerment and gender equity also contributes to understanding resilience.

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IFPRI’s research on this topic is closely aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG1, SDG2, SDG9, and SDG11, and with the CGIAR Impact Areas on Nutrition, Health, and Food Security; Poverty Reduction, Livelihoods, and Jobs; Climate Adaptation and Mitigation; and Gender Equality, Youth, and Social Inclusion.

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topics

Publications

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Journal Article

What happens after the boom? Aquaculture, land use change, and smallholder resilience in Central Thailand

2026Baldiga, Leo; Belton, Ben; Wongvoralak, Sansanee; Napasintuwong, Orachos; Yan, Lin; Shen, Meicheng; Roy, David P.
Details

What happens after the boom? Aquaculture, land use change, and smallholder resilience in Central Thailand

There has been a proliferation of research on Southeast Asian crop booms over the past 15 years. Most studies take place at the height of booms or examine the immediate trajectory of boom and subsequent ‘bust’. Few take a longer-term perspective. In this article we draw on the literature on crop booms and scholarship on ‘everyday’ forms of agrarian transformation to address the question of what happens to livelihoods and land use patterns after a crop boom has ended. We pose this question with reference to aquaculture (shrimp and fish farming) in Central Thailand, which has undergone a series of booms and busts since the 1980s. We address the question using integrated mixed methods (geospatial analysis of land use change, surveys of 455 farm households in 8 provinces, in-depth interviews with 40 farmers). The post-boom trajectory of aquaculture and associated livelihoods has been characterized by the attenuation of boom/bust cycles, continuous adaptation and diversification by producers in the face of successive overlapping shocks, and a surprising degree of continuity and persistence in land use, landholdings and livelihoods. This pattern reflects historical legacies including high levels of absentee landlordism and secure agricultural tenancy and land tenure. Intra-household division and reconsolidation of inherited land, the relatively high economic value and environmental plasticity of key species farmed, and Thailand's ‘middle-income trap’ status all contribute to the persistence of aquaculture after the boom.

Year published

2026

Authors

Baldiga, Leo; Belton, Ben; Wongvoralak, Sansanee; Napasintuwong, Orachos; Yan, Lin; Shen, Meicheng; Roy, David P.

Citation

Baldiga, Leo; Belton, Ben; Wongvoralak, Sansanee; Napasintuwong, Orachos; Yan, Lin; et al. 2026. What happens after the boom? Aquaculture, land use change, and smallholder resilience in Central Thailand. Journal of Rural Studies 128(December 2026): 104417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2026.104417

Country/Region

Thailand

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Aquaculture; Land Use; Land-use Change; Smallholders; Resilience; Agrarian Reform; Rural Transformation; Diversification; Shrimp Fisheries; Fish

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2026.104417 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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Book Chapter

Solutions for gender equality in land and water access, rights and governance within inclusive and resilient food, land and water systems

2026Elias, M.; Zaremba, Haley; Bohra, Babita; Gumucio, Tatiana; Kyle, Jordan; Najjar, Dina; Mapedza, Everisto D.
Details

Solutions for gender equality in land and water access, rights and governance within inclusive and resilient food, land and water systems

Food, land and water systems (FLWS) embed profound gender and social inequalities, including in terms of who has rights to the essential elements of land and water. These inequalities are not incidental, but rather systemic expressions of unequal power relations that shape who controls resources, whose knowledge is recognized, and whose voice is heard in FLWS governance. This chapter aims to identify effective strategies, approaches and actions, referred to as solutions, that can strengthen women’s access and rights to land (including forests and rangelands) and water, to chart more equitable, sustainable and resilient pathways for FLWS. Specifically, we ask: (1) What evidence-based solutions can support women’s access and rights to land and water, as well as their full and effective participation in land and water governance? (2) Under what conditions are these solutions effective? And (3) How can research, policies, investments and practice support the adaptation, implementation and scaling of these solutions? To begin, we provide a brief background on gender and intersectional equality related to land, water and their governance. Drawing on evidence from diverse contexts, we then outline solutions for addressing gender and intersectional inequalities and the conditions under which these solutions have been effective. Finally, we provide recommendations to adapt, implement and scale these solutions.

Year published

2026

Authors

Elias, M.; Zaremba, Haley; Bohra, Babita; Gumucio, Tatiana; Kyle, Jordan; Najjar, Dina; Mapedza, Everisto D.

Citation

Elias, M., Zaremba, H., Bohra, B., Gumucio, T., Kyle, J., Najjar, D. and Mapedza, E. 2026. Solutions for gender equality in land and water access, rights and governance within inclusive and resilient food, land and water systems. IN: Lecoutere, E., Muchiri, C. and Voss, R. (eds.), 2026. Advancing equality, transforming futures: a path to resilient and productive food, land and water systems in 2050. Nairobi, Kenya: CGIAR Gender Equality and Inclusion (CGIAR GENDER Accelerator).

Keywords

Gender Equality; Water Rights; Resilience; Food Systems; Water

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Book Chapter

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Working Paper

Review of evidence on the design and impact of agricultural insurance for smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries

2026Hill, Ruth Vargas; McNamara, Brian; Kramer, Berber; Ceballos, Francisco
Details

Review of evidence on the design and impact of agricultural insurance for smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries

Agricultural insurance has long been promoted as a tool to help smallholder farmers manage production and market risks, yet affordable, well-functioning coverage has proven difficult to deliver at scale. This paper reviews peer-reviewed evidence on the design, implementation, and impacts of agricultural insurance in low- and middle-income countries, with a focus on innovations that have emerged since early indemnity-based multi-peril crop insurance programs gave way to index-based and hybrid approaches. It synthesizes findings on ex ante and ex post impacts, on design features that shape cost, basis risk, and payment timing, and on distribution channels and inclusion of women and low-income households. The review finds that insurance can meaningfully protect household consumption and assets after shocks and encourage productive investment beforehand, but that these benefits depend heavily on accurate loss assessment, adequate coverage size, and trust built through distribution partners. The paper concludes with operational recommendations for policymakers and practitioners on product design, subsidies, and distribution, and identifies priority evidence gaps, including the optimal design of subsidies and insurance's potential to address non-weather-related risks.

Year published

2026

Authors

Hill, Ruth Vargas; McNamara, Brian; Kramer, Berber; Ceballos, Francisco

Citation

Hill, Ruth; McNamara, Brian; Kramer, Berber; and Ceballos, Francisco. 2026. Review of evidence on the design and impact of agricultural insurance for smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2447. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/185790

Keywords

Africa; Asia; Southern Asia; Insurance; Agricultural Insurance; Smallholders; Farmers; Risk Management; Climate; Risk; Developing Countries; Climate Resilience

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Blogs

El Niño is coming and the time for Malawi to prepare is running short
Issue Post
 | 
October 05, 2026

El Niño is coming and the time for Malawi to prepare is running short

By Jan Duchoslav, Joseph Nagoli, Andrew Jamali, and Grace Kumchulesi

Building resilience to ride out possible drought.

Scaling digital financial services for smallholder farmers in Kenya: A stakeholder consultation on challenges, opportunities, and action pathways
Event Post
 | 
July 23, 2026

Scaling digital financial services for smallholder farmers in Kenya: A stakeholder consultation on challenges, opportunities, and action pathways

By Berber Kramer, Esther Nzuki, Julie Ghostlaw, and Shalika Vyas

Providing reliable access to credit and insurance.

Development strategy under the permanent emergency: Building continuity amid crisis
Issue Post
 | 
July 09, 2026

Development strategy under the permanent emergency: Building continuity amid crisis

By Steven Were Omamo

The need for a new paradigm.

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Events

From Relief to Resilience: Supporting Displaced and Shock-Affected Households in Somalia
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

October 20, 2026, 10:00 – 11:00 am

From Relief to Resilience: Supporting Displaced and Shock-Affected Households in Somalia

Policymakers and program implementers in Somalia are increasingly recognizing the importance of complementing short-term support in the form of cash or in-kind transfers with interventions targeting longer-term development goals and poverty exit, a goal that cuts across both more traditional social protection systems and programming targeting internally displaced people. This webinar will present evidence on […]

Women's Voice and Resilience in Nigeria
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

October 14, 2026, 8:30 – 12:45 pm

Women’s Voice and Resilience in Nigeria

Women are key agents in building resilience for themselves, their households, and their communities. Yet persistent barriers to women’s decision-making power, community engagement, political participation, leadership, and agency more broadly limit their ability to shape the policies, institutions, and community responses that affect their lives. As Nigeria confronts overlapping economic, climate, and security challenges, greater […]

When Grain Trade Is Obstructed: Black Sea Disruptions and Global Market Impacts
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

October 1, 2026, 9:30 – 11:00 am

When Grain Trade Is Obstructed: Black Sea Disruptions and Global Market Impacts

The Black Sea region plays a critical role in global agricultural trade, supplying a significant share of internationally traded wheat, maize, and oilseeds. Yet ongoing disruptions to transport and export logistics—including damage to port infrastructure, shifting trade routes, rising freight and insurance costs, and heightened operational uncertainty—are affecting exports of agricultural commodities from the region. […]

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News

February 09, 2026 | Press Release

New IFPRI study introduces breakthrough framework to assess economic risks in developing countries

A groundbreaking approach to understanding how developing economies are affected by multiple, simultaneous shocks.

November 12, 2024 | Press Release

New Study: Short-term humanitarian aid alone insufficient to address severe deterioration in employment, income, access to essential services and food security.

Economic revival, social protection, and infrastructure rehabilitation are critical for urban recovery in Sudan. Nairobi, 12 November 2024 – Eighteen months of war have deeply affected urban households in Sudan: 31 percent have been displaced, full-time employment has plummeted by half, over 70 percent of the urban households in Sudan had all or some of […]

August 29, 2024 | Press Release

Trade can support climate change mitigation and adaptation in Africa’s agricultural sector, new data shows

New report analyzes trade performance amid pressure points from climate change, water use, and carbon emissions, with recommendations for sustainable practices.

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Projects

Irrigation as a Service for Small-Scale Producers: Advancing Equity and Women’s Empowerment

Irrigation as a Service for Small-Scale Producers: Advancing Equity and Women’s Empowerment

Small-scale irrigation provides benefits for productivity, income, food security, nutrition, and resilience to climate shocks. However, women often face greater constraints than men to accessing……

Support for the Domestication of the Kampala CAADP Declaration

Support for the Domestication of the Kampala CAADP Declaration

This project provides technical, analytical, and capacity building support to enable African Union (AU) Member States and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) to domesticate the Kampala……

BRIGHT Sri Lanka

BRIGHT Sri Lanka

…

Economywide Risk Assessments

Economywide Risk Assessments

Developed using advanced machine learning, simulation, and data mining techniques, these country briefs provide detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. Produced by IFPRI, the……

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Our experts

Deanna Olney

Deanna Olney

Director, Nutrition, Diets, and Health (NDH), Nutrition,
Diets, and Health

James Thurlow

James Thurlow

Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM), Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Sedi Boukaka

Sedi Boukaka

Research Coordinator, Agrifood
Innovation and Resilience

Durjoy Dey

Durjoy Dey

Research Analyst, Development
Strategies and Governance

Chris Hillbruner

Chris Hillbruner

Program Head, Global Food Security Program, Markets,
Trade, and Institutions

Razin Kabir

Razin Kabir

Senior Program Manager, Poverty,
Gender, and Inclusion