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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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David Spielman

David Spielman is the director of IFPRI’s Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit and has been with the institute since 2004. His research agenda covers a range of topics including agriculture and rural development policy; agricultural science, technology, and innovation; plant genetic resources and seed systems; agricultural extension and advisory services; and community-driven rural development.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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Foresight and Policy Modeling

James Thurlow

Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM)

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James Thurlow is Director of the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, where he oversees the institute’s research program on the major drivers of inclusive agricultural transformation and sustainable development. James’ own research uses economywide models to study the interactions between policies and agrifood systems; structural, climate, and demographic change; and livelihoods, poverty, and food security. He has worked with researchers and governments across Africa and Asia to strengthen foresight capabilities and enhance the coherence of development strategies.

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Publications

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Journal Article

Systematic risk profiling: Assessing compounding economic risks in developing countries

2026Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Arndt, Channing; Thurlow, James; Thomas, Timothy S.
Details

Systematic risk profiling: Assessing compounding economic risks in developing countries

This paper presents a systematic risk profiling (SRP) framework to identify the most critical economic risks facing developing countries. Integrating computable general equilibrium (CGE) models with historical shock data and machine-learning tools, we examine how compound shocks affect development outcomes. We apply this method to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi, simulating thousands of plausible combinations of world price, capital flow, and productivity exogenous shocks and their impacts on countries’ GDP, household consumption, poverty, and undernourishment. The results reveal distinct risk profiles driven by structural differences: Kenya’s primary vulnerability is the volatility in global beverage crop prices, whereas Rwanda and Malawi face the highest risks from domestic root crop and cereal yields, respectively. These findings underscore that vulnerability is not just a function of shock magnitude, but of the specific structure of each economy. Specifically, the high economic volatility in Malawi and Rwanda is driven by the larger role of subsistence agriculture and more volatile domestic yields, whereas Kenya’s agricultural sector is more export-oriented. Unlike standard ad hoc scenario analysis, SRP quantifies both the likelihood of compound events and the relative importance of their drivers. This transparent, scalable framework provides policymakers a new tool to move beyond reactive measures and design targeted, country-specific resilience strategies for an increasingly volatile world.

Year published

2026

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Arndt, Channing; Thurlow, James; Thomas, Timothy S.

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Arndt, Channing; Thurlow, James; and Thomas, Timothy S. 2026. Systematic risk profiling: Assessing compounding economic risks in developing countries. Economic Modelling 157(April 2026): 107511. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107511

Country/Region

Kenya; Rwanda; Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Climate; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Machine Learning; Risk; Uncertainty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107511 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

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Brief

Ghana: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

2026Aragie, Emerta A.; Pauw, Karl; Jiang, Shiyun; Thurlow, James; Jones, Eleanor
Details

Ghana: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Ghana’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprints, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. In Ghana, extension in agronomy and post-harvest food loss reduction are the most cost-effective ways to improve social outcomes, including notably reducing poverty and undernourishment levels. Meanwhile, advisory services in livestock and support to small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are highly ranked in accelerating agrifood GDP and employment. Moreover, extension services for agronomy and climate, and investments in mechanization are also highly ranked. However, many of these cost-effective investments come with relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and moderately so in the presence of extreme production shocks.

Year published

2026

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Pauw, Karl; Jiang, Shiyun; Thurlow, James; Jones, Eleanor

Citation

Aragie, Emerta A.; Pauw, Karl; Jiang, Shiyun; Thurlow, James; and Jones, Eleanor. 2026. Ghana: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development. Agrifood Investment Prioritization Country Series Brief 9. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/181872

Keywords

Agrifood Systems; Development; Investment; Economic Aspects; Environmental Impact

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

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Brief

Synopsis: Economywide assessment of CSA interventions in building resilient agri-food systems in Rwanda

2026Aragie, Emerta A.; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; Niyonsingiza, Josue
Details

Synopsis: Economywide assessment of CSA interventions in building resilient agri-food systems in Rwanda

This research extends IFPRI’s RIAPA modeling to include both the full implementation of PSTA 5’s climate smart agriculture and a once-in-five-year weather shock, and the interactions of both on agricultural sectors, agricultural GDP, and on national GDP. Main findings include: Rwanda’s agri-food system is highly vulnerable to climate variability due to its structural characteristics. Results indicate that CSA practices during the PSTA-5 period (2024/25–2028/29) increase agricultural GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points annually, with the largest impacts on horticulture and roots and tubers. However, several CSA interventions relate to infrastructural improvements and therefore the benefits extend over a longer time horizon, ultimately having even greater impact beyond PSTA 5. The weather shock causes dramatic declines in agricultural GDP (-1.6 percent), with horticulture affected most negatively, suffering a 2.4 percent decline. The joint Climate + CSA scenario depicts how CSA helps mitigate, but not fully eliminate, the negative impacts of weather shocks during the PSTA 5 period.

Year published

2026

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; Niyonsingiza, Josue

Citation

Aragie, Emerta A.; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; and Niyonsingiza, Josue. 2025. Synopsis: Economywide assessment of CSA interventions in building resilient agri-food systems in Rwanda. Rwanda SSP Policy Note 26. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179844

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Climate-smart Agriculture; Modelling; Food Systems; Agricultural Policies

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

Events

Conflict in the Middle East: Reverberations for Food Systems
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

April 14, 2026, 9:00 – 10:30 am

Conflict in the Middle East: Reverberations for Food Systems

Also streaming on Please type your questions into the chat box with name, affiliation, and country. The event video, presenter slides, and podcast will be available in the days following the event. While the global food system has largely adjusted to the disruptions in agricultural commodities and fertilizers following the invasion of Ukraine, the new conflict in […]

Shaping Food Policy in a Changing World: Research Priorities for Greater Impact
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

December 15, 2025, 9:00 – 4:00 pm

Shaping Food Policy in a Changing World: Research Priorities for Greater Impact

In today’s fast-changing world and evolving food systems, the need for evidence-based food policy has never been more urgent – demanding research that is timely, inclusive, and tailored to context. Reliable data and rigorous analysis are essential, but research must also evolve – and become more timely, more relevant, and more inclusive of diverse voices […]

IFPRI @ 30th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP30)
IFPRI at External Event

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November 10 to 21, 2025

IFPRI @ 30th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP30)

IFPRI is pleased to participate in the 30th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP30) being held in Belém, Brazil from November 10 to November 21, 2025. COP30 builds on progress of previous COPs to turn the ambitions of the Paris Agreement into reality. Hosted in the Amazonian city of Belém, the topics of […]

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News

February 09, 2026 | Press Release

New IFPRI study introduces breakthrough framework to assess economic risks in developing countries

A groundbreaking approach to understanding how developing economies are affected by multiple, simultaneous shocks.

June 23, 2025 | Press Release

New study proposes smarter cropland allocation to support sustainable agricultural intensification in Senegal

The study explores how farmers’ land-use decisions can be guided by the relative risks and returns of different crops—similar to how financial investments are managed.

August 13, 2024 | In the News

Sudan’s catastrophe: farmers could offer quick post-war recovery, if peace is found

Despite the stark reality, there is a potential path forward for Sudan, believe IFPRI experts.

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