IFPRI Publications: Briefs

Climate shocks and climate smart agricultural adoption in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess the adoption of climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices and the role of climate shocks using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024–2025. • Twenty percent of farmers faced severe climatic shocks, while 40 percent faced more moderate negative shocks. • The largest share of farmers reporting natural shocks lived in the dry zone. • Forty-four percent of farmers were negatively affected by pests and diseases, including 72 .per-cent of oilseed and tuber farmers. • Seventy-four percent of farmers reported that changing weather patterns affect their income. • Forty-one percent of farmers reported that they were currently using at least one climate smart agricultural practice (CSA). • Crop type strongly predicts CSA adoption. Vegetable, pulse, and maize farmers are significantly more likely to adopt CSA practices, with marginal effects indicating increases of roughly 16–17 percentage points. In contrast, rice cultivation is not significantly associated with adoption—im-portant given rice’s dominance in the country. • Adoption levels of CSA practices vary sharply across provinces. Eastern Province shows the highest adoption (66 percent), while Sabaragamuwa records the lowest adoption at just 14 per-cent. • Exposure to climate shocks increases CSA adoption. Experiencing a moderate or severe climate shock in the previous year is associated with a 6–7 percentage point increase in CSA adoption, suggesting that shocks are prompting adaptive responses. Policy Implications for Sri Lanka • Strengthen CSA adoption in lagging provinces. Sabaragamuwa, North Western, and Western show consistently low adoption despite exposure to climate risks. • Expand and tailor extension services to promote CSA for the most climate vulnerable farmers.

The state of agricultural extension services in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess the state of Sri Lanka’s agricultural extension services using the BRIGHT 2024-2025 national survey. We examine use of or access to extension by land size and wealth, farmers’ trust in different providers, and farmers use of innovative sources of extension, including digital channels.. • Fifty-five percent of Sri Lankan farmers accessed some form of extension in 2024/2025 • Public extension agents remain the most trusted source of advice, yet their reach differs sharply by region—from as high as 75% in North-Western Province to as low as 30% in Northern Province. • Access to agricultural extension varies widely across provinces, with the highest access in Northern Province (84%) and the lowest in Central and Western Provinces (around 44%). • In the Northern Province, despite low public provision, farmers compensate through strong reliance on input retailers (64%) and Farmers’ Organizations (71%), indicating robust informal ex-tension networks. • Extension access is strongly related to cultivated area and asset ownership. Only 40% of farmers cultivating less than 0.5 acres received any form of extension, compared to 71% among those with more than 3 acres. Similarly, only 39% of households in the lowest wealth quintile accessed extension, compared to 62% in the highest quintile. • Wealthier farmers and those with more cultivated acres not only access extension more frequently but also from a wider range of sources, underscoring inequality in information access and opportunity. • Digital channels, such as Facebook and other online groups, play a growing but still limited role, concentrated mainly in the Western Province where internet access is strongest. Policy Implications for Sri Lanka • Targeted efforts are needed to expand extension access in lagging regions—particularly Central, Western, and Uva Provinces—by strengthening reach of both public and non-public agents. • Dedicated actions are needed to expand extension services across a wider range of crops—particularly beyond rice and the traditional plantation sector—as well as across sub-sectors • Given the high trust and engagement within farmer associations, these organizations should be leveraged as key partners for training delivery, group learning, and scaling up new practices. • More research is needed on the effectiveness of different extension modalities, including digital

Water insecurity in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025: Evidence from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

We assess water insecurity in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024-2025. Key Findings • Compared to the 2016 DHS data, the 2024 BRIGHT results show moderate improvements in access to improved drinking water sources. Estate sector households show the greatest relative improvement, with the share using improved water sources increasing by approximately five percentage points. This shift is driven primarily by a 15-percentage-point rise in the use of protected wells, although nearly half (49%) of estate households continue to rely on rivers, springs, or tank water. • Most households in Sri Lanka report few insecurity experiences, and are therefore mostly water secure, with 90% not experiencing water insecurity. • Differences between groups are subtle and occur mainly between marginal and low levels of water security, rather than between fully secure and insecure households. • 68% of estate households (households on plantations), experienced at least water insecurity experience compared to only 28% of urban households and 33% of rural households. • Households in dry agroecological zones face slightly higher risks water insecurity (11%) com-pared to 9% of in both intermediate and wet zones. • Poverty is a key predictor of water insecurity. The poorest households are 6.8 times more likely to experience extreme water insecurity than the richest households. • Sri Lanka has lower levels of water insecurity than most other lower-middle income countries but needs to address poor water security in populations left behind. Improving water security in estate areas and in the dry zone should be national water security priorities

Vendors outside of markets in Viet Nam

The food environment represents the place in which demand for food meets supply: consumers purchase foods in the food environment, and food retailers market and sell their products. In many countries, the food environment is undergoing rapid changes as economies grow and populations urbanize, with the consequence that a larger share of food consumed is purchased by the end consumer, rather than being self produced (de Bruin and Holleman 2023). Viet Nam is no different: over time, the country’s growing and urbanizing economy has led to shifts in its food environment. This note focuses on one type of retailer in Viet Nam’s food environment: food vendors that exist outside of formal markets. These vendors typically sell their goods in a fixed location, unlike mobile vendors, and do business on a daily or near-daily basis from that location. This definition includes vendors in “toad markets,” which are vendors who set up right outside of official markets, and other vendors who work in a fixed location but lack a storefront. All such vendors are clearly part of the informal sector. These vendors play a small but important role in Viet Nam’s food environment, and almost all of them sell at least one component of a sustainable healthy diet. As a result, these vendors can help to improve the diets of Viet Nam’s population. This note uses two data sets to examine small vendors outside markets. The first is a listing exercise that enumerates all businesses selling food in the sampled wards of three districts: Dong Da, in urban Hanoi; Dong Anh, in peri-urban Hanoi; and Moc Chau, a rural district northwest of Hanoi. This survey was used as a sample frame for the second survey; the second one was designed to examine the constraints and opportunities faced by micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) as they consider selling more healthy foods (Ceballos et al. 2023). Vendors outside of markets are one type of MSME in the food environment.

Multistakeholder platforms in transboundary waters: What do we know, and where should we go?

This policy brief synthesizes recent evidence on multistakeholder platforms (MSPs) in shared river basins and presents practical guidance for river basin organizations, development partners, and policymakers. It compares established basin-level MSP approaches across three basins (Nile, Zambezi, and Mekong) and describes how stakeholders in the Incomati and Maputo River Basins—shared across the Republic of South Africa, Eswatini, and Mozambique—built on these approaches to design their own MSP. This brief translates comparative evidence and field experience into a practical toolkit for advancing MSPs in shared basins.

Understanding recent prices increases of animal-source foods in Myanmar

The livestock sector in Myanmar represents a significant component of the national economy, contributing approximately 6 percent to the country’s GDP. Beyond its economic role, the sector provides critical livelihood opportunities for rural households and underpins the supply of animal-source foods (ASF), which are essential for enhancing dietary diversity and nutritional outcomes. A resilient and efficiently functioning livestock sector also generates important multiplier effects, contributing to poverty reduction, employment creation, and overall economic growth (Diao et al. 2024). This note summarizes recent structural and market developments in Myanmar’s livestock industry and examines their implications for ASF price dynamics.

Farming with alternative pollinators

The relationship between plants and pollinators is widely recognized as one of the most significant forms of ecological interactions [1]. Without pollinators, numerous plant species could not reproduce. Additionally, many animals rely on plants for essential resources such as pollen and nectar. This relationship is remarkably frequent in nature, with an estimated 87% of flowering plants pollinating through animal interaction [2]. Consequently, pollinators are also essential for humanity, especially for their contribution to food security since they are necessary to produce various crop commodities [3]. The production of medicines, biofuels, and construction materials relies, to some extent, on the pollination carried out by animals. Finally, the livelihood of many people is based on beekeeping and honey gathering, which are ancient activities yet still important in many rural communities [3]. Pollination is a recognized ecosystem service, and its economic value has been assessed numerous times [4], [5], [6]. However, we witness a rapid biodiversity decline in terms of wild pollinators, which is caused by human activities [7]. Among the factors leading to this decline, the intensive and improper use of agrochemicals is arguably the most severe [8]. For instance, the practice of seed coating with systemic pesticides (such as Imidacloprid) affects the nectar and pollen, causing a potential threat to pollinators [9], [10]. Habitat fragmentation, loss, and degradation are also important drivers of the decline of wild pollinators. These can be caused by urbanization, removal of “waste places” like hedgerows and field margins, and (over)grazing and early cutting of hay meadows [8]. Climate change is an additional risk, interrupting the timely synchronization of plant-pollinator interactions

Biocontrol

Worldwide, the estimated pesticide use in agriculture is 2.7 million tons (Mt) of active ingredients (FAOSTAT). Despite their accessibility and efficacy, chemical pesticides raise numerous environmental concerns. Chemical pesticides can pollute ecosystems by contaminating soil, air, and freshwater through various pathways, including volatilization [1], spray drift [2], runoff from fields [3], and improper product management [4], like improper disposal of empty containers or incorrect dosage. This contamination can have detrimental effects on aquatic ecosystems [5], harm animals [6], and pose risks to human health through contaminated drinking water sources [7]. The second major concern is the undesired impacts on biodiversity: The use of chemical pesticides is frequently linked to a decrease in populations of non-target species [8], [9], [10], and can also lead to the development of resistance by target species [11], [12], further unbalancing the equilibrium of species populations. Moreover, resistance to pesticides induces the use of alternative and often more potent chemical products, further perpetuating the cycle of environmental harm.

Multipurpose trees

Industrialized food systems and commercial forestry, characterized by monoculture practices, have contributed to significant land degradation [1], biodiversity loss [2], and increase in greenhouse gas emissions [3]. As opposed to the detrimental trends caused by monoculture, agroforestry, and growing multipurpose trees in particular, stands out as a production system that provides multiple benefits [4]. Multipurpose trees are frequently distinctive components of agroforestry systems, although they are rare in commercial forestry and conventional agriculture. The conservation ― or cultivation ― of multipurpose trees is often economically motivated in a multiple-output land-use system, but it can also be driven by ecological and environmental reasons. They are deliberately kept and managed for more than one preferred use, product, or service. They provide food, fodder, fuel, and medicine, while also contributing to soil fertility, water conservation, and biodiversity enhancement1

Micro-irrigation

Irrigation is an essential practice in many agricultural production systems. It is also one of the oldest interventions to nature implemented by humankind, since its origins trace back to almost 6000 BC [1]. Currently, agriculture accounts for 70% of all freshwater withdrawals globally, with irrigation being the primary driver. As shown in Figure 1, irrigation is closely linked to an increase in crop yields. On average at the global level, yields achieved under irrigation are almost double relative to rainfed yields, with potential for even greater yield increase in arid areas. Since water is a scarce resource, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, satisfying the increased demand for irrigation water in agriculture has become a pressing global challenge, exacerbated by climate and demographic change, which will require an increased supply of food for a growing human population [2]. The high demand for irrigation water to support food production is linked to several types of nature losses, the most important of which is the risk of water resources depletion [3] and the subsequent negative impacts on water-related biodiversity and ecosystem services. Figure 2 illustrates the consumption rate of renewable water resources, highlighting how arid and semi-arid regions frequently surpass the natural replenishment rate of their water resources. Furthermore, irrigation can cause soil degradation by inducing changes in soil structure and increasing the risk of erosion [4]. Flood irrigation, in particular, can contribute to soil erosion by physically moving the soil parts. In arid and semi-arid regions, high evaporation rates of irrigation water from the soil surface can cause problems of salinization over time. In regions where irrigated agriculture is prevalent, these environmental risks significantly increase with water overconsumption or inefficient water use.

Organic ferilizers

Fertilization is a crucial aspect of soil management aimed at regulating the nutrient cycle and availability and supporting plant growth and increasing productivity. It involves the application of nutrients, either to the soil [1] or to plant foliage [2] to replenish optimal content in the soil and, ultimately, in the plants. Fertilization has always been an integral part of agricultural production, and its origins can be traced back to around 8000 BCE [3]. Over time the use of fertilizers has evolved, and application rates have significantly increased thanks to industrial processes [4] that enabled the production of low-priced and accessible synthetic fertilizers. Figure 1 shows the extent of the worldwide use of nitrogen-based fertilizers, the most typical nutrient applied in agriculture as it is often a yield-limiting nutrient.

Sustainable manure management

Manure is any excrement and urine of farmed animals and is considered a resource or waste, depending on where and how much is produced, and how it is used. It is an essential source of nutrients for plants, and it has been used for fertilizing soil and enhancing crop production since the advent of agriculture [1]. It reduces the reliance on chemical fertilizers in situations where they can be hard to find (or to afford) and in contexts like organic agriculture, where chemical fertilizers are avoided for ethical or policy reasons. Manure production worldwide is increasing [2] due to the growing demand for meat and animal-based products [3]. This trend raises concerns about the potential threat to ecosystems posed by manure, since several factors can contribute to environmental pollution hazards [4]. Manure contains high levels of nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus. When manure is applied to soil in excessive amounts, or during periods of heavy rainfall, these nutrients can enter nearby water bodies through the processes of leaching and runoff [5]. High levels of nitrates in water bodies can lead to excessive and rapid growth of algae, causing oxygen depletion and eutrophication [6]. This process can lead to the death of fish and other aquatic organisms that depend on oxygen to survive, ultimately resulting in habitat degradation and loss of biodiversity [7]. In fact, untreated manure spread onto soils is generally considered the principal cause of eutrophication [8], [9] and of nitrate freshwater pollution from agricultural sources [10]

Minimum tillage

Soil tillage represents a key agricultural management practice for crop production, serving multiple purposes. Primarily, it is used to control weeds and increase the soil organic matter mineralization rates, making nutrients more available to plants. Other potential benefits are improved soil aeration and water filtration. However, extensive use of tillage has proven unsustainable for soil maintenance and climate regulation. Deep plowing and other cultivation practices lead to soil degradation by increasing susceptibility to erosion [1], soil runoff [2], and by reducing microbial diversity and activity [3]. Minimum tillage and no-tillage (also known as zero-tillage) address these problems by reducing soil cultivation to a minimum, or entirely avoiding it, thus promoting less disruptive and potentially more sustainable agricultural management. Specifically, no-tillage eliminates traditional plowing practices with the use of direct seeding. To be effective, direct seeding is preceded by other land preparation practices, including chemical or mechanical weed control (e.g., slashing), removal of the previous crop residues, or cover crops to create a mulch layer. Crop residues are retained entirely, or at a suitable level to ensure complete soil coverage. Seeding is then done directly through the mulch layer or through narrow slits for seed placement. Occasionally, direct seeding can be done just before harvesting the previous crop. This practice, known as relay cropping, is used to reduce weed emergence during the period the land would otherwise lie fallow. Finally, direct seeding can be also done jointly with fertilizer and amendment applications. Minimum tillage is also promoted as a method to reduce air pollution, for instance in India, where previously farmers used to burn rice straw but now apply direct seeding on cut crop residues which are spread as mulch.

Crop rotation

Crop rotation is a critical agricultural practice employed to mitigate the adverse effects associated with monoculture systems. Monoculture, which refers to the cultivation of a single crop over a whole farm or area [1], has seen a constant spread worldwide since its early instances, such as the Caribbean sugarcane plantation in the 18th Century [2]. Among the many reasons concurring in the diffusion of monoculture, increased profitability through economies of scale is probably the main driver. Concentration on one crop allows for more efficient planting and harvesting, lower investment in diverse and costly equipment, reduced need for a workforce with specialized knowledge, and a comprehensive understanding of specific value chains and available markets

Waste to animal feed

Currently, Food Waste (FW) is a pressing global issue with significant environmental, social, and economic implications. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), approximately one-third of all food produced for human consumption ― almost 1.3 billion tons globally ― is lost or wasted each year . This wastage occurs throughout the food system, from farm to fork. However, FW in high-income countries mainly originates from food consumption whereas in low-income countries it comes from food production and food processing [1]. This reflects differences in consumers’ habits and behavior and in the technological underpinnings of local food systems. Regardless of which part of the food system FW originates from, it has serious consequences for food security [2], resource conservation [3], and climate change [4]. FW contributes to greenhouse gas emissions through various processes. Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, are emitted when FW is landfilled [5]. The total global amount of FW generates 3.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide emission annually [6]. Landfilling also contributes to the formation of leachate, a toxic liquid that can contaminate groundwater and surface water.

Agro-silvo-pastoralism

Agro-silvo-pastoralism is an agricultural practice combining crop cultivation (agro), forestry (silvo), and animal husbandry (pastoralism) within the same system. It is an integrated approach to land management, applicable to a wide range of ecological conditions [1] that aims to create a harmonious interconnection between its components, thereby maximizing overall system productivity, promoting production diversification and biodiversity, and ensuring sustainability [2]. Agro-silvo-pastoralism systems were already known during the Roman Empire; such systems are mentioned in works like “De Agri Cultura” by Cato (second century B.C.), “Naturalis Historia” by Pliny the Elder (first century B.C.), and “De Re Rustica” by Varro (37 B.C.) [3]. Archeological studies prove that the practice is rooted in the Bronze Age [4], [5]. In recent years, the interest in agro-silvo-pastoralism has been renewed because of its potential to sustain rural farming in marginal areas and to adapt to the challenges posed by climate change [6]. In Brazil, for example, areas under agro-silvo-pastoralism amount to 17 million hectares, with a potential to reach three times that number.

Green manure

Soil management is a critical aspect of crop production for its impact on environmental and economic sustainability. Ordinarily, in annual cropping systems, land lays fallow in the period that follows the harvest of one crop and precedes the sowing of the next. This period of non-cultivation helps reconstitute the soil fertility and water reserves [1], [2]. However, improperly maintaining the land fallow is shown to deplete soil quality and harm the environment. Without vegetation cover, the soil is more exposed to erosion [3], surface runoff [4], and degradation of its organic content [4]. Erosion and surface runoff not only reduce soil fertility, leading to an inefficient use of resources [3], but also pose a potential threat of freshwater contamination with nitrates and other agricultural by-products [5]. The degradation of soil organic matter has severe impacts when not reconstituted and preserved. The soil’s capacity to hold water [3] and nutrients decreases, making control of those critical inputs complex for farmers. Climate regulation is also affected: soil organic matter stores carbon within the soil ecosystem, but its degradation releases it into the atmosphere, exacerbating greenhouse gas levels [6]

Mechanical soil and water conservation

In semi-arid areas, where water scarcity and poor soil condition pose significant threats to agricultural production and to the livelihood of individual smallholders and communities, water and soil management are critical for food/water security. Limited renewable freshwater and erratic rainfall patterns in those areas restrict the reliance on irrigation, making water conservation strategies more pressing and necessary [1]. Moreover, implementing advanced irrigation systems may be challenging due to limited resources and a lack of technical expertise [2]. For smallholder farmers, the adoption of irrigation systems, such as drip irrigation, is limited by further constraints such as high costs, limited access to finance, lack of technical support, and may not be suitable for all local conditions and cropping systems [3]. Under these constraints, promoting water and soil conservation strategies practices as part of a broader water management package to increase agricultural productivity at the farm level becomes crucial for ensuring sustainable agricultural production.

Integrated nutrient management

Soil fertilization is a fundamental practice for increasing crop yields and ensuring sustainable agricultural production. As shown in Figure 1, the use of fertilizers has been growing over the years, reflecting the importance of fertilization in all agricultural systems. However, several environmental issues and potential health risks arise from incorrect approaches to fertilization in both high-income and low-income countries.

Intercropping

Over the last decades, crop yields in conventional farming and monocropping systems have increased globally, benefiting from advancements in plant breeding and from higher use of inputs, specifically water, fertilizers, and pesticides. However, the environmental, social, and economic sustainability of such high-input/high-output systems is questionable, and this requires revisiting the conventional farming and monocropping systems paradigm. Moreover, conventional agriculture and monocropping significantly impact biodiversity by reducing habitat diversity and increasing environmental degradation. Monocropping promotes genetic uniformity, leading to the decline of traditional crop varieties. Intensive agricultural practices, such as the extensive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, result in habitat fragmentation, soil degradation, and loss of soil microbial diversity, which are detrimental to various plants and wild animals.

Integrated pest management

The use of pesticides in agriculture has had mixed consequences. While pesticides have significantly increased agricultural productivity and food security by reducing yield losses to harmful organisms [1], their excessive use has led to severe environmental consequences. Inherently, pesticides are designed to protect plants from pests. However, their effects extend far beyond the targeted organisms. Pesticides occasionally contaminate soil [2], [3], [4], water [5], [6], and air [7], leading to widespread environmental pollution, reducing biodiversity and causing potential health risk to humans [8]. This happens through volatilization [9], spray drift [10], runoff from fields [11], and improper product management [12] such as improper disposal of empty containers or incorrect dosage [12]. The chemicals used in pesticides can persist in the environment, causing long-term harm to ecosystems [13]. They do not stay confined to the areas where they are applied; they can spread through air and water, affecting distant ecosystems and non-target species.

Spatial analysis shows moderate yet significantly more vigorous crops in AICCRA communities compared to control communities

In southern Ghana, communities with multiple stakeholder CSA field demonstrations (CSA hubs) show significantly more vigorous crops based on satellite imagery from 2021 to 2025, compared to control communities.

Multidimensional poverty and vulnerability in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess multidimensional poverty and vulnerability in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024-2025. Nearly one quarter of all Sri Lankans are multidimensionally poor, and nearly one half are multidimensionally vulnerable. The multidimensionally poor are deprived in 45% of the weighted poverty indicators, while the multidimensionally vulnerable are deprived in 37% of the weighted vulnerability indicators. Estate areas have the highest rates of multidimensional poverty (63%) and vulnerability (83%), but most of the multidimensionally poor (77%) and vulnerable (79%) live in rural areas because nearly 8 out of 10 Sri Lankans live there. Central province has the highest multidimensional poverty rate (38%), while Northern (75%), Eastern (65%), and Uva (60%) provinces have the highest multidimensional vulnerability rates. Western province has one of the lowest multidimensional poverty rates (17%) and the lowest multidimensional vulnerability rates (35%). The main sources of multidimensional poverty are health deprivations and standard of living (assets and basic services) deprivations. The main sources of multidimensional vulnerability are shocks, unproductive debt, poor health, and inadequate schooling. Policy Implications for Sri Lanka: The government of Sri Lanka should consider using multidimensional poverty and vulnerability measures to re-assess district-level poverty for the first-stage allocation of Aswesuma resources. Refinements and/or extensions of these multidimensional poverty and vulnerability measures could prove useful for assessing potential policy levers for reducing current poverty and the vulnerability of households to future poverty.

Climate-smart agriculture for sustainable agriculture in Bhutan: Adoption, policy barriers, and way forward

This discussion brief is part of the knowledge management and capacity building component of the Consortium for Scaling-up Climate-Smart Agriculture in South Asia (C-SUCSeS) project. C-SUCSeS is a joint initiative between the SAARC1 Agriculture Centre (SAC), International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). It aims to promote bottomup applied research on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies through active participation of smallholder farmers based on the participatory research experiences in the region.

Climate-smart agriculture technologies in Nepal: Adoption, policy barriers, and way forward

This discussion brief is part of the knowledge management and capacity building component of the Consortium for Scaling-up Climate-Smart Agriculture in South Asia (C-SUCSeS) project. CSUCSeS is a joint initiative between the SAARC1 Agriculture Centre (SAC), International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). It aims to promote bottom-up applied research on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies through active participation of smallholder farmers based on the participatory research experiences in the region.

Climate-smart agriculture in Bangladesh: Adoption, policy barriers and way forward

This discussion brief is part of the knowledge management and capacity building component of the Consortium for Scaling-up Climate-Smart Agriculture in South Asia (C-SUCSeS) project. C-SUCSeS is a joint initiative between the SAARC1 Agriculture Centre (SAC), International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). It aims to promote bottomup applied research on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies through active participation of smallholder farmers based on the participatory research experiences in the region.

Agricultural input retailers in Myanmar: Insights from the 2025 monsoon season

This Research Note presents results from an August 2025 phone survey of 227 agricultural input retailers – who provide agricultural inputs and informal credit to farmers – in Myanmar’s major agro-ecological zones. Key Findings • Input sales declined sharply in the 2025 monsoon relative to 2024. Fewer retailers sold inorganic fertilizers and pesticides, and aggregate sales for those who did sell declined by 31 percent for inorganic fertilizer and 10 percent for pesticides. • The decline is not solely due to supply shortages: smaller areas planted, weaker farm profits, and conflict have dampened demand, while climate change and the 2025 earthquake add to input market stress. Two-thirds of retailers cite lower input demand from climate change in the past three years, and earthquake impacts – while more localized – disrupted market access and areas planted. • Transport remains the dominant business disruption. Even with a slight drop in overall reported disruptions compared to 2024, transport problems – higher costs, checkpoints and roadblocks – still dominate. Long input supply chains dependent on imports and flowing through Yangon mean that checkpoints and higher costs compound as inputs reach rural farmers. • Farmer finances are stressed, especially in rice-dominant areas. Farmers are asking for and taking more credit from input retailers. This likely reflects tighter liquidity following the recent global rice price decline, which has reduced incentives and profitability for monsoon paddy. • Credit provision is expanding but adding risk. More retailers are providing credit to farmers and sourcing their inputs on credit from suppliers. Yet, two-thirds of retailers that provided credit in 2024 still have unpaid debts from farmers, raising the risks of cascading financial stress. • Measures to ease transport constraints, stabilize access to imported fertilizers and pesticides, and expand formal credit options for both farmers and retailers would help sustain this essential link in the agrifood system.

Cash, food, and vouchers: An overview of the evidence

The choice of different modalities for transferring resources to extremely poor households—food provided in-kind, cash, or intermediate modalities such as vouchers—has long been the subject of active debate in both policy and research. This note provides an overview of the recent evidence around the relative effectiveness of cash and food aid, drawing on studies conducted over the last 20 years around the world. Each modality has some potential advantages. Cash transfers are flexible in allowing recipients to use resources to meet a range of material needs (including, but not limited to food); and when they do choose to purchase food, allows them to choose a basket of items that is optimal based on their preferences. (The corresponding disadvantage of food transfers is that if recipients de sire nonfood items, they have to resell food for funds, often at a nontrivial transaction cost.) Cash transfers are often easier and lower-cost to deliver (particularly given the substantial growth of electronic payment systems) compared with the more complex logistical requirements of delivering food, especially perishable food. They are also generally less observable, potentially rendering them less likely to generate stigma or demands for sharing from nonrecipients. Cash can also have indirect beneficiaries through positive spillover effects in the local economy, though the evidence base for this is not large, and suggests that spillovers may be negative in some contexts.

Cash transfers and inflation: An overview of the evidence

Cash transfer programs are a leading form of social assistance, reaching up to 21 percent of the population in at least 68 low- and middle-income countries (World Bank 2025). Between 1980 and 2023, a total of 1.4 million papers were produced on the matter (Gentilini 2024) and more have been published since. While the design and impact of these and related programs have been closely studied (Banerjee et al. 2024), much less is known about whether or not cash transfer programs cause increases in the market price of good and services—that is, inflation. By reducing the purchasing power of money, program-driven inflation can diminish the positive impacts of cash transfers for recipients and create a negative spillover for nonrecipients, thus undermining program aims of improving social welfare. Recent literature on cash transfers and inflation is limited and often described as dichotomous: on one side, Egger et al. (2022) and other studies find little to no effect, while, on the other side, Filmer et al. (2023) find sizable and alarming inflationary effects on selected commodities. However, a closer look at these and other papers reveals that their results are less contradictory than they first appear. Rather, the whole body of the current literature is congruous with the hypothesis that cash transfers have minimal average effects on prices for most market goods; but these transfers can cause inflation where they significantly increase market demand for goods for which supply is relatively inelastic. This review proceeds as follows. We first present a simple conceptual model that illustrates the theoretical basis for this hypothesis, followed by an overview of the studies included in the review and their key differences. The next section presents a synthesis of the main findings in the existing empirical evidence. We then look at related research just outside the purview of this review. The conclusion discusses key takeaways.

Malawi: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Malawi’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors, seed systems, and farmers credit are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Investments in extension and advisory services for livestock, SME traders, and seed subsidy also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of in vestment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Investing in innovative food systems solutions in challenging contexts

Humanitarian agencies are in a race against time to save lives in contexts where economies have collapsed as hunger is aggravated by conflicts and extreme weather, among other factors. Take Nigeria, for example. Across the country lives and livelihoods are being shattered by conflict and climate shocks – once a breadbasket, the northern regions now rely heavily on humanitarian food assistance. The numbers speak for themselves: 30.6 million people are food insecure – 10 million people in three northern states; 17 million children are malnourished – the highest number in Africa, second highest globally after India. Farmers are cut off from their fields. Traders struggle to move goods through dangerous or impassable roads. Millions are displaced. And yet amid this fragility pockets of resilience are emerging in areas where conflict has subsided such that some farmers can return to their farms.

Senegal assessment [of the PEDAL project]

For nearly three decades, Senegal has been recognized as a regional leader in advancing nutrition, reducing under-five stunting from 34 percent in 1992 to 19 percent in 2014 (Kampman et al. 2017), and further to 15.1 percent by 2023 (ANSD and ICF 2024). This progress has been underpinned by a multi-sectoral and decentralized approach, with local governments playing an increasingly central role in policy implementation. Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) has been a cornerstone of this agenda, with Senegal—alongside Nigeria—pioneering fortification standards in the 2000s for edible oil, wheat flour, and salt, and subsequently institutionalizing the approach through the 2006 Strategic Plan for the Fortification of Foods and two successive national fortification strategies, the most recent of which was launched in May 2025. Yet despite these achievements, Senegal now faces mounting fiscal pressures, shifting donor priori-ties, and persistent micronutrient challenges, all of which threaten to slow or reverse momentum around LSFF.

Addressing data deficiency in CAADP’s poverty reduction commitment

This policy brief examines Africa’s data reporting performance on the commitment to halve poverty under the fourth CAADP Biennial Review (BR) of the Malabo Declaration. Data availability is central to tracking progress, yet approximately 40 percent of the required data was missing at the continental level, with significant disparities across regions, indicators, and countries. Central Africa exhibited the highest rate of missing data, while Western Africa reported the lowest and achieved the highest BR scores. The analysis reveals a strong negative correlation between data missing rates and BR performance scores, indicating that improved reporting can enhance the visibility of positive policy outcomes. However, high-quality data alone is not sufficient—outcomes also depend on effective policy design and implementation. The review process uncovered persistent data quality challenges, particularly the presence of extreme outlier values that undermine the reliability and comparability of reported results. These anomalies—such as implausible agricultural growth rates or disproportionate reductions in poverty—highlight weaknesses in data validation and signal a need for strengthened national data governance. The brief recommends institutionalizing the BR process, creating Kampala commitment specific data clusters, and investing in capacity building to improve data consistency and utilization. Strengthening national data systems is essential to achieving the poverty reduction goals of the Kampala Declaration.

Women’s empowerment in Ghana’s agriculture sector: Insights from the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index

Key messages • Gender disparities in agriculture persist in Ghana, particularly in land ownership, credit access, and decision-making power, limiting women’s productivity and contribution to food security. • The Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) has been instrumental in revealing these gender gaps in northern Ghana, but similar data are lacking for other regions, hindering national-level policy responsiveness. • Targeted interventions, such as securing land rights for women, improving access to financial services, and promoting participation in farmer-based organizations, are critical to advancing women’s empowerment and achieving gender-equitable agricultural development.

Deploying high-frequency market data to estimate the cost of recommended diets: Recent trends in Rwanda

This study estimates the cost and affordability of recommended diets in Rwanda from April 2019 to December 2024 using high-frequency market price data. By deploying standardised methods for healthy diet costs to eSoko data (www.esoko.gov.rw), and local food based dietary guidelines, we calculate the monthly cost of recommended diets at the district level. Key findings reveal significant dietary cost fluctuations, with nominal costs increasing 67% between June 2022 and October 2023, coinciding directly with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The research also identifies affordability challenges; by mid-2023, and again in late 2024, where up to 70% of wage earners could not afford a recommended diet. Spatial variations were also evident, with diet costs differing between rural and urban areas, and across districts bordering different countries, with the highest dietary costs observed along the Democratic Republic of Congo border and the least expensive along the border of Tanzania. Utilizing Rwanda’s eSoko data platform, the study demonstrates the value of high-frequency, spatially explicit data for understanding food system dynamics. The findings call for policy actions to consider dietary affordability, particularly for low-income groups, and suggest that Rwanda’s data collection approach could serve as a benchmark for other countries.

Tractor service providers in Myanmar: Early insights from the 2025 monsoon season

This note presents results from a July–August 2025 phone survey of 401 tractor service providers (TSPs)—who play a vital role in enabling timely land preparation and planting— offering early insights into the 2025 monsoon season. Key Findings • Acres prepared by TSPs declined by 12 percent compared to the previous year (11 percent in the Dry Zone, 17 percent in the Delta), largely reflecting weaker rice price incentives in the Delta and insecurity in the Dry Zone. • Lower demand for services was reported by 55 percent of TSPs compared to the previous year, and 40 percent faced operating restrictions, mainly due to securityrelated movement constraints – including new restrictions in Ayeyarwady. • Nominal service charges rose by an average of 16 percent from the previous year, driven by rising costs of fuel, repairs, and operators, along with reduced availability of these inputs. • Most TSPs (87 percent) extended credit to their clients, usually without interest, making them an important source of informal credit for farmers. • Cash flow problems affected 31 percent of TSPs, driven by declining revenues (50 percent) and rising operating costs (65 percent). Many coped by borrowing or selling assets. With high inflation, service charges likely failed to rise in real terms, adding to the financial pressures they faced. Recommended Actions • De-risk credit for mechanization services by sharing repayment risks or expanding access to affordable credit for farmers, reducing the financial burden on TSPs while maintaining access to services. • Improve mobility and security for TSP operations through greater transparency at checkpoints, fewer required permissions, and safer roads in conflict-affected areas. • Stabilize fuel and machinery costs and availability by facilitating imports, easing access to foreign exchange, and strengthening distribution networks to reduce operating pressures on TSPs. • Support training and retention of machine operators to address widespread shortages driven by outmigration and insecurity, ensuring service quality and machine upkeep.

Trade, not aid? The emerging donor strategy and its implications for Africa’s agrifood systems

Key messages 1. The United States is shifting its development engagement in Africa from aid to trade, emphasizing commercial partnerships, private sector development, and export-oriented growth. This shift is not unique to the United States; similar trends are being seen in Europe, China, and Japan, reflecting a global swing toward trade-first or business development strategies. 2. If well aligned, this approach can reinforce African priorities as defined in the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) 2026–2035 Strategy, the Kampala Declaration, and national agricultural investment plans. Trade-first strategies map directly onto CAADP’s six strategic objectives, including agro-industrialization, food security, inclusivity, resilience, financing, and governance. 3. These strategies can also support implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, especially through investment in trade corridors, logistics, standards systems, and regulatory cooperation. However, there are risks of misalignment if initiatives prioritize donor or investor interests over inclusive transformation, public goods provision, and food systems resilience. 4. As articulated in discussions during the recent 4th International Conference on Financing for Development, consensus is building for Africa to move beyond aid and propel growth through private sector development. 5. African governments and partners must also go beyond coordination and seriously consider the institutional and political work required to steer this opportunity toward the public good. This consideration will require investing in regulatory capacity, protecting public goods, confronting corruption and capital flight, and ensuring that trade and investment flows are transparent, accountable, and inclusive. Without this, trade-first strategies risk reinforcing existing inequalities, undermining food systems resilience, and turn-ing agrifood transformation into an elite project. 6. Strategic statecraft—rooted in evidence, integrity, and public accountability—is essential to ensure that this shift delivers not just markets but also meaningful structural transformation through industrial policy. 7. The pivot to “trade, not aid” by global partners reflects a broader retreat from long-term development commitments. But it must also be recognized as a shift in priority from shared development outcomes to strategic self-interest, market capture, and influence. 8. Africa cannot be viewed as an open market to be carved up, claimed, or divided. African countries must insist on strategic alignment, mutual accountability, and respect for national development priorities—or risk having their food systems and economic futures being shaped by agendas that do not serve them.

Aligning AfCFTA and CAADP for Africa’s agrifood systems future

Key messages AfCFTA and CAADP are Africa’s twin engines for structural transformation, but their success depends on deliberate alignment. While AfCFTA drives regional integration through trade liberalization, CAADP focuses on building resilient, inclusive, and sustainable agrifood systems. • There is strong strategic complementarity between the two frameworks, especially in goals related to competitiveness, private sector development, and integration of regional value chains. But alignment weakens at the level of implementation—risking policy incoherence and missed opportunities. • Tensions between AfCFTA and CAADP implementation exist around tariff liberalization, domestic policy space, and sector readiness, with risks that liberalized trade could outpace capacity of fragile agriculture sectors to compete, adapt, and benefit. • Food security, equity, and environmental resilience—central to CAADP—are recognized in AfCFTA objectives and justify certain exceptions yet remain only weakly embedded in its implementation protocols. • Institutional silos and fragmented infrastructure strategies could undermine coherence, with risks of trade and agriculture ministries, as well as regional and continental bodies, operating separately. • Strategic coordination, sequencing, and governance reform are essential. Alignment of AfCFTA and CAADP is not automatic—it must be designed, negotiated, and sustained to deliver on Africa’s transformation promise. • Bridging AfCFTA and CAADP is not a one-time alignment exercise but rather a strategic process of political, institutional, and analytical interaction that must be continuously revisited and actively managed if it is to deliver on the continent’s shared aspirations for prosperity, food security, and sustainability.

Harnessing livestock for climate action and food security: A strategic opportunity for Africa and the Global South

Typology of Kampala Declaration Activities

Key messages 1. The Kampala Declaration promotes multilevel coherence in agrifood systems investment by aligning National Agricultural Investment Plans (NAIPs) and Regional Agricultural Investment Plans (RAIPs) across Africa. 2. The green–yellow–blue typology employed in this brief is a critical innovation that helps classify and harmonize activities by their governance level—national (blue), regional/ REC (green), and continental/multi-REC (yellow). 3. A majority of activities (132) identified in the CAADP Strategy and Action Plan 2026–2035 are multilevel (green + yellow + blue), indicating broad intent for integrated implementation, but also emphasizing the need for strong coordination among all governance tiers. 4. Blue-only activities (74) dominate, revealing a tendency toward national responsibility, which still needs to be strategically aligned with REC and African Union (AU) initiatives. 5. Continental leadership remains weak, with few AU-led (yellow-only) initiatives, suggesting a policy gap in pan-African coordination and oversight—particularly in inclusivity, financing, and resilience. 6. Governance and trade-related interventions show the highest levels of harmonization, making them potential models for other domains such as food security, inclusivity, and climate resilience. 7. Inclusivity and resilience are under-prioritized at the regional and continental levels, requiring policy reframing that treats them as shared public goods rather than local concerns. 8. RECs are pivotal to the successful implementation of CAADP Agenda but are under- resourced, requiring enhanced mandates, planning tools, and inter-REC collaboration to execute cross-border and multicountry initiatives effectively. 9. Successful implementation hinges on institutional reforms, sustained political will, and capacity building, ensuring the Declaration translates into real, coherent, and transformative action across Africa’s agrifood systems. CAADP KAMPALA DECLARATION POLICY NOTE 3 AUGUST

Implications of exchange rate overvaluation and world price shocks for PNG

The large inflow of foreign capital to fund PNG investments in natural gas pipeline and processing infrastructure resulted in a surge in inflation beginning in 2011. Costs of production of tradable goods such as coffee and palm oil rose more (in kina terms) than their output prices, reducing the profitability of these sectors. These price distortions have continued to the present day, as restrictions on access to foreign exchange (mainly through delays in the release of funds) as demand for foreign exchange exceeds supply made available to the public. This policy note reviews PNG’s exchange rate policies and uses an economy-wide simulation model1 to quantify the impacts of these distortions. We conclude with a discussion of policy implications, highlighting the effects of a possible devaluation / depreciation of the kina.

Zambia: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Zambia’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) traders and processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Expansion in extension and advisory services for livestock, rural roads, farmers credit, and seed systems also rank high. How ever, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Addressing the double burden of malnutrition in Egypt: Report on a stakeholder workshop on key challenges, policy solutions, and research opportunities

Key messages Parliamentarians, researchers, and development practitioners shared perspectives on the double burden of malnutrition in Egypt in roundtable discussions. Infrastructure gaps and policy and research strategy fragmentation are highlighted as challenges to accessibility of healthy food. Aggressive ads/media environment and inefficient nutrition education programs are regarded as negatively impacting consumer behavior. Economic factors are widely identified as a major driver of malnutrition. Recommended solutions include raising nutrition literacy, transitioning from food subsidies to vouchers, improving nutrition services infrastructure, taxing unhealthy foods, and fortifying staple foods. Participants called for continued dialogue between researchers and policymakers.

Leveraging project insights to strengthen WEAI for climate research

Key messages • Measuring women’s empowerment in the context of climate change, resilience, and adaptation requires a flexible climate module—not a rigid, universal set of indicators. • Collective agency, community involvement, and social networks are critical to climate resilience. The project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI) should expand its climate module to better capture these community dynamics and collective actions. • Integrating qualitative methods strengthens pro-WEAI’s effectiveness and ensures the tool is tailored to local contexts, which is essential for collecting meaningful and holistic data.

Livelihoods and welfare: Findings from the eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (October – December 2024)

The eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was conducted between October and December 2024, with a recall period covering July to December. It builds on seven rounds implemented since December 2021. This report presents key findings on the livelihood and welfare dynamics during the second half of 2024. Key Findings: Between 2023 and 2024, household welfare measured by median real household income per adult equivalent declined slightly by 0.8 percent, but real income in 2024 is 15.8 percent lower than two years ago. The poverty headcount rate rose to 70.5 percent in the second half of 2024, slightly lower than 71.7 percent in 2023 but significantly higher than 65.2 percent in 2022. Wage-earning households remain the most vulnerable, with the lowest median real daily income and the highest poverty levels, particularly in conflict-affected states such as Rakhine, Chin, and Kayah. Urban poverty increased by 6.9 percentage points over the past year and 15.2 percentage points over the past two years, while rural poverty fell by 4.3 percentage points in the past year and rose by 1.5 percentage points over two years. Falling wages and access issues were key challenges for wage and salaried workers while high input costs and low supply affected enterprises and crop producers. Market access and transportation issues were challenges for crop sales. Recommended Actions: Facilitate safe and productive migration opportunities and strengthen remittance systems to enhance household resilience and keep families out of poverty, as remittance income reduces the likelihood of poverty by 20 percentage points. Establish and expand social protection systems and safety nets to support vulnerable households, addressing the welfare impacts of escalating conflict, macroeconomic challenges, and the lack of critical state-provided services.

Applying an integrated engagement model to support country-led food systems transformation: Insights from the SHiFT Initiative’s approach in Viet Nam, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh

From 2022-2024, the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation (SHiFT) combined high-quality nutritional and social science research with development and policy partnerships to generate innovative food systems solutions that contributed to sustainable healthy diets. Through a country-led approach, SHiFT supported the design and implementation of national food systems transformation activities in Viet Nam, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh, aiming to achieve sustainable healthy diets while also working toward improved livelihoods, gender equity, and social inclusion. Following the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS), countries were encouraged to define pathways for transforming their food systems to align with the 2030 Agenda and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).2 Many countries have since developed national action plans to operationalize these pathways, requiring coordinated multisectoral efforts. SHiFT contributed to this process by generating evidence and supporting national stakeholders in developing context-specific food systems solutions. This brief introduces SHiFT’s country engagement strategy and explains how SHiFT supported collaborative pathways and processes in each target country during its initial phase. Consumers and Food Environments, Area of Work 1 in the new CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition, will build upon the SHiFT approach starting in 2025 through 2030.

Advancing forest-based carbon trading in Nepal: Policy challenges and agroforestry opportunities

Nepal remains among the countries most vulnerable to climate-related disasters. Although several national policy documents have emphasized the urgency of mitigation and adaptation, climate action remains fragmented and significantly underfunded. Nepal’s unique geography—spanning the Himalayas, mid-hills, and Tarai plains—together with recent decentralization reforms offers a favorable context for implementing localized, context-specific solutions to climate threats. However, the lack of consistent policy frameworks, weak institutional mechanisms, limited investment, and fragmented governance across all levels of government continue to impede progress. In this policy note, we use carbon trading in the forestry sector as a case study to illustrate broader policy challenges and opportunities in Nepal and other Global South countries. Trading is a market-based mechanism that incentivizes the offset of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through credits for CO2 sequestration.. Nepal has adopted this approach in line with international agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. As one of the major strategies, the country has sought to capitalize on its forest resources to generate carbon credits and attract international climate finance.

KhetScore: Impacts of using digital technologies to unlock credit and insurance for marginal farmers in Odisha

This brief discusses the findings of an impact evaluation of KhetScore, an innovative tool that employs digital technologies to unlock credit and insurance for small and marginal farmers in the state of Odisha, India. In the treatment group, where Dvara E-Registry offered loans and insurance based on the KhetScore methodology, farmers (particularly women) were more likely to obtain insurance and formal credit, without substituting away from informal borrowing. Despite this increase in borrowing, households in the treatment group were much less likely to report difficulty in repaying loans, which suggested favorable loan terms that eased the burden of repayment. There were beneficial effects on agricultural revenues and profits. Women in the treatment group experienced significant improvements in empowerment within the household and in their subjective mental health (specifically, reduced feelings of stress).

Coping with crisis: Livelihood vulnerabilities and food insecurity in Sudan’s current conflict

Sudan’s conflict, reignited in April 2023, represents not just a military contest between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), but a total systemic collapse that has engulfed governance, infrastructure, markets, and public services. This conflict did not arise in a vacuum. Sudan has long faced structural vulnerabilities including weak institutions, a fragile economy, and climate-related stressors such as erratic rainfall and land degradation. The war, however, accelerated these pre-existing fault lines into a full-blown crisis. Key urban economies such as Khartoum have been devastated by airstrikes and sieges, while transport corridors and trade routes have been severed. Local governance structures in many regions have been displaced or dissolved, leaving civilians without recourse to basic services or protection. Simultaneously, the banking sector has fractured, disrupting remittances, cash transfers, and supply chains across the country. Insecurity has driven over 12.8 million people from their homes – 8.6 million internally and 3.9 million seeking refuge neighboring countries, as of May 2025 (UNHCR, 2025).

Vegetable, fruit, and staple crop production and input use: Baseline findings from the FRESH end-to-end evaluation

In Tanzania, fruit and vegetable (F&V) production is the fastest growing agricultural subsector.1 Production is concentrated among smallholder farmers who face numerous barriers which hamper intensification. These include lack of quality inputs, insufficient financing, limited access to subsidies, limited extension services, and limited and unreliable access to markets. The CGIAR Research Initiative on Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH), now under the CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition (BDN) Area of Work 3, is testing the effectiveness of its end-to-end approach in Northern Tanzania.2 This approach, described in more detail in Research Brief 1, combines demand, food environment, and supply interventions to increase desirability, affordability, accessibility, and availability of F&V. The supply interventions are designed to address known barriers faced by F&V farmers. For example, the provision of climate-resilient vegetable cultivars tackles the lack of quality inputs, whereas training on safe and sustainable vegetable production, including integrated pest management, tackles limited extension services. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and partners are conducting a longitudinal evaluation to assess the impact of the FRESH end-to-end approach in Tanzania on household vegetable production and F&V intake among women of reproductive age. The evaluation is being conducted among 2,611 households living in 33 villages in five districts in the Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. In this research brief, we describe baseline findings on the production of vegetables, fruit, and staple crops and the inputs used in production among different types of farming households in the study area.

Country profile – Kenya: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

Agriculture is vital to Kenya’s economy, accounting for 20% of the country’s GDP in 2020. Yet the growth of the sector has slowed in recent years due to unfavorable weather conditions, leading to a reduction in crop and livestock performance (Central Bank of Kenya, 2023). While employment in agriculture has been steadily declining (to 32% in 2023), the sector still employs a large share of the rural population and is the main source of informal employment, rural income, and livelihoods (D’Alessandro et al., 2015; ILO 2025). A majority of Kenyan farmers operate on a small scale and are solely dependent on rainfall (D’Alessandro et al., 2015). However, since the 1970s, the country has experienced significant changes in rainfall pat terns–average rainfall during the long season has decreased while rainfall during other times of the year has increased and the country has experienced more frequent climate extreme events (Kogo et al. 2021). Increased climate variability has negative effects on agriculture and may exacerbate inequalities within the sector. Due to gender inequalities and gender-differentiated roles in agrifood systems, men and women do not experience climate change and variability in the same ways (Balikoowa et al., 2019; Lecoutere et al. 2023). According to the World Economic Forum, women are more vulnerable than men to climate change due to lower education and exclusion from the political and domestic decision-making processes that affect their lives (Gunawardena, 2020).

Credit access, demand, and repayment among smallholder farmers in Nigeria: A follow-up analysis

Access to credit can be important for improving the performance of smallholders, as it enables farmers to purchase inputs while sustaining their livelihoods. In rural Nigeria, however, access to credit—particularly from formal financial institutions—is limited. As a result, farmers often have little to no choice but to depend on alternative credit sources, including informal lending. Small holder agricultural households often turn to friends and family, or local money lenders and other informal and semi-formal sources to meet their credit needs (EFInA, 2020).

Wages of the poor and food price inflation: Insights from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey in Q4 2024

This research note examines changes in food prices and their effects on the cost of both common and healthy diets, as well as on the purchasing power of casual wages. Data on food prices and casual wage levels were collected through interviews with food vendors in rural and urban areas across Myanmar, conducted between December 2021 and December 2024 as part of the ongoing Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS).

Rethinking delivery modalities in conflict-affected settings: Why beneficiaries in Sudan prefer digital transfers

The recent surge in armed conflicts across Africa is increasing demand for humanitarian and social assistance, creating significant pressure on humanitarian actors to deliver life-saving support amid insecurity and constrained resources. The conflict that erupted in Sudan in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has resulted in the world’s largest displacement crisis, triggering an acute and multidimensional humanitarian emergency requiring urgent and substantial international support. These armed conflicts in Africa are threatening important gains in poverty reduction made in the last few decades. While armed conflicts and associated crises increase the need for assistance, they simultaneously undermine the capacity to deliver it. In conflict-affected settings, the operational environment is often marked by damaged infrastructure, disrupted markets, weakened institutions, and limited humanitarian access. These challenges hinder the effectiveness, targeting, and coverage of social protection and humanitarian aid programs (Ghorpade, 2017; 2020; Lind et al., 2022). Moreover, the proliferation of armed groups—including both state and non-state actors—can obstruct aid delivery or divert assistance, further limiting program reach and impact. Compounding these challenges is a widening humanitarian financing gap, driven by escalating needs and declining donor contributions. In response, development and humanitarian actors are increasingly exploring cost-effective delivery mechanisms to improve efficiency, transparency, and reach of humanitarian aid to vulnerable populations. Among these, digital transfers, including mobile money, offer promising avenues for delivering assistance in fragile settings where conventional approaches may be impractical or insecure. This brief draws on evidence from Sudan to assess the feasibility and demand for digital transfers in humanitarian response. It explores emerging practices and offers insights for policymakers, donors, and implementing agencies aiming to adapt assistance modalities to meet the challenges of protracted crises.

Integrating agriculture policies with climate change strategies and commitments in Nepal

The world continues to grapple with acute hunger, malnutrition, poverty, income inequality, and other crises. In 2023, approximately 864 million people experienced severe food insecurity (FAO et al. 2024). On the one hand, poor policy adoption disrupts market and supply chain vulnerabilities, exacerbates food insecurity, and causes economic instability and crises (Hélène and Cohen 2020). On the other hand, disasters and extreme weather conditions significantly damage available infrastructure, transportation networks, and storage facilities, disrupting the distribution of agricultural commodities and as well as regular food patterns (Hasegawa et al. 2021). The COP28 UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action recognizes that agriculture and food systems must urgently adapt and transform to meet the challenges of climate change. It commits to integrating agriculture and food systems into climate action while simultaneously mainstreaming climate action across policy agendas and actions related to agriculture and food systems (UNFCCC 2023).

Lessons Learned from Implementing the CAADP Biennial Review Process Under the Malabo Declaration

The Biennial Review (BR), launched under the 2014 Malabo Declaration, serves as the African Union’s (AU) primary mutual accountability tool for tracking Member States’ progress in implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). This brief, drawing lessons from four BR cycles, aims to inform the next phase of BRs in preparation for the domestication and implementation of the 2025 Kampala CAADP Declaration. While the BR has prompted policy and programmatic changes in several countries, its full impact is hindered by persistent challenges such as underfunding, weak monitoring and evaluation (M&E) capacities, and data quality issues. Despite these hurdles, innovations like the eBR and national data clusters have led to improvements in data quality and reporting rates. Still further improvements in data systems, capacities, and stakeholder engagement are urgently needed to strengthen the Biennial Review (BR) process. Key recommendations include adopting coherent data governance policies, promoting BR awareness and data utilization, refining the BR scorecard methodology, expanding data clusters to more countries, strengthening M&E capacities, ensuring inclusive BR validation, and integrating the BR database with M&E systems at both national and regional levels. Sustained political leadership, technical support, and domestic funding are critical to institutionalizing a robust, timely, high-quality, and impactful BR process that supports evidence-based decision-making and accelerates progress toward achieving the CAADP agrifood system transformation goals under the Kampala Declaration.

Declining purchasing power of minimum wages in Papua New Guinea: Analysis of economic access to healthy diets

Key Messages To address rising living costs which reduce the purchasing power of the minimum wage, the Government of PNG recently launched a review of the country’s minimum wage. The minimum wage has been PGK 3.50 per hour or PGK 28 per 8-hour day since July 2016. At the beginning of 2025, the minimum wage could purchase about three-quarters as much food and other goods and services compared to July 2016. The cost of a healthy diet per adult per day in urban areas increased by 35 percent from PGK 7.70 in 2021 to PGK 10.37 in 2025. The cost of the healthy diet was the most expensive in Port Moresby—PGK 11.15 per adult per day in 2025 and increased the most in Kokopo (54 percent) from PGK 5.81 to PGK 8.92 between 2021 and 2025. One and a half full-time urban minimum wage earners earn just enough to feed a healthy diet to a family of five in 2025, with no money remaining for essential non-food expenses such as clothing, shelter, transportation, health, and education. The government recently published a public notice of Goods and Services Tax (GST) zero-rating of essential goods effective 1st June 2025 to 30th June 2026. We re-evaluate the purchasing power of a minimum wage by decreasing the price of tinned tuna and rice by 10% (reflective of the GST zero-rating) on Q1 2025 recorded prices. Assuming prices remain constant (with no shifts in demand due to decreased tax), the cost of the average urban healthy diet in the first quarter of 2025 is 4.7 percent lower without the GST (PGK 9.87) compared to the cost of a healthy diet with the GST (PGK 10.35) — slightly improving the purchasing power of minimum wage earners.

Global rice price declines and expected effects on monsoon paddy farming: Insights from key informants

This brief draws on interviews with 51 agro-input retailers across 10 states and regions to assess how falling international rice prices may affect monsoon paddy cultivation in their communities. Key Findings: In May 2025, international rice prices (in real terms) reached their lowest level in the past 15 years, one-third lower than in May 2024. Myanmar’s dual exchange rate system has further depressed local rice prices. In addition to low export prices, rising marketing and processing costs—driven by persistent electricity shortages and transportation challenges—have widened the gap between farmgate prices and end-market prices (both domestic and export). According to informants, fertilizer (urea) prices rose 12 percent, while paddy prices fell by an average of 21 percent (median decline: 29 percent) in May 2025 compared to a year earlier. In response to weaker price incentives, respondents expect monsoon paddy area to decline by 11 percent and fertilizer use to drop by 18 percent compared to the 2024 monsoon season. Expected declines in paddy prices, cultivated areas, and yields are likely to reduce production, lower farm incomes, and increase rural poverty in 2025 – especially concerning given farmers’ relative resilience in recent years. Recommended Actions: To ensure adequate incentives for paddy farmers, the dual exchange rate system should be revised to give exporters—and, by extension, farmers—fairer and more predictable returns. Barriers to efficient domestic trade and processing—such as roadblocks, restrictive regulations, poor transportation infrastructure, and limited access to fuel and electricity—should be addressed to narrow the growing gap between producer and consumer prices.

Economic and social outcomes of investment on research and development in Tajikistan’s agrifood system

The World Bank’s agriculture sector public expenditure review study (World Bank 2021) findings indicates that public expenditure on agriculture sector remains relatively small at less than one percent of GDP, though grew significantly between 2015 and 2020, and the sector relies heavily on donor financing (54 percent). There is a notable underinvestment in R&D, 0.7 percent of total public expenditure in agriculture sector between 2016-2019, which impacts productivity and climate resilience. In this brief, for evaluating the potential impact of investment on Research and Development (R&D) to accelerate agricultural transformation and inclusiveness in Tajikistan agrifood system (AFS), we rely on the IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which incorporates household survey-based microsimulation and investment modules, and simulates the functioning of a market economy, comprising markets for products and factors which include land, labor, and capital (IFPRI 2023).

Economic and social outcomes of investment on infrastructure and early warning system in Tajikistan’s agrifood system

Irrigation and timely access to sufficient volumes of water are vital to increase crops productivity, rural incomes, and food security (FAO 2023; World Bank 2021). In Tajikistan, irrigation sector faces several challenges and constraints such as: aged, poorly maintained infrastructure and poor management system that led low-quality irrigation services; limited investment in drainage infrastructure, inadequate maintenance, poor water management, and harmful irrigation practices that led salinization and waterlogging in some irrigated areas. In addition, the ongoing process of climate change and rising temperatures will increase crop water demands, while water supply reliability will decline, leading to more-severe, more-frequent water stress. The minimum required operation and maintenance on irrigation infrastructure estimated to be about US$35 million per year. Around 85 percent of cultivated land is irrigated and provides more than 90 percent of the total value of crop production. Since independence, the condition and performance of irrigation infrastructure has declined because of severe underfinancing. More than 40 percent of irrigated areas depend on pumping (the highest dependency in Central Asia), and many high-lift, high-volume pumping stations are in poor condition. Pumping is inefficient (~0.28 kWh/m3, which accounts for 20 percent of total national electricity use). The economic productivity of irrigation is among the lowest 5 percent of countries in the world (~0.21 USD/m) because of high water loss, predominance of low-value crops, and low yields. Irrigation is heavily subsidized but still underfunded. Between 2016 and 2019, the share of public agriculture expenditure on irrigation infrastructure was high (44.6 percent or 880.3 million Tajik Somoni). Irrigation is financed through direct transfers for electricity, government subsidies for pumping station staff costs, revenue from irrigation service fees, WUA membership fees (for on-farm operations and maintenance), and donor investments. More than 60 percent of irrigation capital expenditures (including flood protection) is donor financed (Khakimov et al. 2024; World Bank. SWIM Project 2022).

Economic and social outcomes of investment on extension and advisory services in Tajikistan’s agrifood system

Findings of recent study shows that in 2021, roughly 5 percent of farms and nearly 14 percent of arable land used professional extension services. Extension service actors in Tajikistan include Ministry of Agriculture, Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Tajik Agrarian University, government extension specialists at the village level, the private sector, and NGOs, with a total staff of about 2,250 people, of whom about 600 are trained to provide professional extension services (Muminov 2021). The government’s fiscal space is limited the extent of support to such investments. Thus, there is a notable underinvestment in extension and advisory services (EAS), 2.4 percent of total public expenditure in agriculture sector between 2016-2019 (World Bank 2021). In this brief, for evaluating the potential impact of investment on extension and advisory services to accelerate agricultural transformation and inclusiveness in Tajikistan AFS, we rely on the IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which incorporates household survey-based microsimulation and investment modules, and simulates the functioning of a market economy, comprising markets for products and factors which include land, labor, and capital (IFPRI 2023).

Economic and social outcomes of investment on market and food systems in Tajikistan

Findings of World Bank study (WB, SRAS Project 2021) indicates that lack of sufficient quantity and quality of seeds, seedlings, and planting materials in domestic market is one of the critical issues affecting farmers income and food security. Most donor projects provide direct extension support to farmers on multiplying and adopting seeds and seedlings. The local capacity to generate new varieties and planting materials remains low and over 50 percent of all agricultural inputs are imported. The capacity to test new varieties of crops for their adaptation to soils and climate in the country is also lacking, and in general the regular testing of new varieties, whether domestically developed or imported, is not conducted. Between 2016-2019, the share of public agriculture expenditure on inputs distribution to the farmers (0.04 percent or 0.81 million Tajik Somoni) and development of seeds and seedlings (0.8 percent or 16.64 million Tajik Somoni) were low (Khakimov et al. 2024).

Sudan: Cereal markets and trade

Cereal production and markets, key components of Sudan’s food economy, have changed dramatically in the last decade due to conflict-related disruptions, as well as earlier changes in government policy. In western Sudan, particularly Darfur and surrounding regions, ongoing conflict has severely hindered agricultural activities, leading to a sharp decline in domestic cereal production. In contrast, other regions of Sudan have maintained relatively stable planting and harvesting activities, although marketing costs have risen substantially.

Tanzania: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present research findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Tanzania’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in extension and advisory services on livestock are shown to be the most cost-effective in expanding agrifood GDP and jobs. We also find that targeting SME processors generates stronger impacts on jobs, while extension services in agronomy are particularly cost-effective in fostering growth. Similarly, investing in extension services in agronomy and livestock, along with support to SME processors, yields significant gains in social outcomes, though with varying effects on poverty, hunger, and diet quality. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, highlighting potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and when extreme production shocks occur.

Country profile – Ethiopia: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

This brief provides an overview of Ethiopia’s climate risks, gender dynamics, and nutrition challenges and includes discussion of how these issues are intertwined, an overview of the policy landscape, and recommendations for strengthening the integration of gender, climate change and nutrition in the country. With a population of approximately 126.5 million people as of 2023, Ethiopia ranks as the second most populous country in Africa and stands out as one of the region’s fastest-growing economies, with an economic growth rate of almost 10% per year over the last 15 years (World Bank, 2024). Ethiopia’s agrifood system accounted for 48% of Ethiopia’s national GDP and 77.2% of employment in 2019. Pri mary agriculture alone contributed more than 1/3 of GDP and 2/3 of employment, while other parts of the agrifood system such as processing, trade, and input supply contributed 12.8 percent to GDP and 9.4 percent to employment (Diao et al., 2023). The sector is dominated by smallholder farmers who cultivate a diverse array of crops, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, fruits, and vegetables (Dawid & Mohammed, 2021). Women make up more than 40% of the agriculture labor force and head approximately 25% of all farming households in the country (World Bank, 2019).

Country profile – Nigeria: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

This country brief supports GCAN’s goal of integrating gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policy by providing policymakers, program officers, and researchers with an analysis of Nige ria’s current situation and policy objectives in these areas. A recent study from Andam et al. (2023) underscores the vital role of Nigeria’s agrifood system in the country’s economy. In 2019, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at $469.3 billion, supported by a workforce of 66.8 million people (Andam et al. 2023). The agrifood sector made a substantial contribution, generating $175.3 billion in GDP and providing employment for 41.9 million individuals. This sector encompasses both primary agriculture and off-farm activities, including processing, trade, transport, food services, and input supply. Primary agriculture alone contributed $103.3 billion to GDP and employed 32.2 million people. Off-farm agrifood activities contributed approximately 40 percent of the agrifood GDP and 20 percent of agrifood employment (Andam et al. 2023).

Clustering shrimp farms in Bangladesh: A novel effort with mixed outcomes

Organizing smallholder farmers in clusters has been widely promoted as a way to boost agricultural productivity, streamline delivery of extension services, and improve access to markets. In Bangladesh, where shrimp is an important export crop produced largely by smallholders, government and industry view clustering as key to preventing Bangladesh being left behind in an increasingly competitive global market. Bangladesh’s shrimp exports are highly dependent on the hotel, restaurant, and catering (HoReCa) sector in Europe—a small and relatively low value market segment. Gaining access to the much larger and potentially more lucrative retail market segment in Europe and North America requires high quality, traceable, and – increasingly – certified, shrimp, posing a challenging for Bangladesh.

Informing CAADP 2026–2035: What a decade of IFPRI Research in Africa tells us

This policy brief distills insights from a decade of IFPRI’s research and engagement across 54 African countries, offering a strategic synthesis to inform the Kampala 2026–2035 implementation phase of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). Drawing from almost 5,700 publications between 2015 and 2025, and using a combination of natural language processing (NLP), deep learning algorithms and rule-based approaches, the review maps key findings against CAADP’s six strategic objectives: (1) intensifying sustainable food production, agro-industrialization, and trade; (2) boosting investment and financing for agrifood systems transformation; (3) ensuring food and nutrition security; (4) advancing inclusivity and equitable livelihoods; (5) building resilient agrifood systems; and (6) strengthening agrifood systems governance. By aligning evidence with strategic priorities, this synthesis aims to sharpen the research and policy agenda needed to accelerate agricultural transformation, ensure food security, and deepen resilience across the continent. The review reveals areas of significant progress—such as advances innovative finance, nutrition policy, social protection design, gender equity, and market functioning—while also exposing enduring gaps in data, investment diagnostics, and imple mentation capacity. The brief is thus both a stocktaking and a springboard, harnessing what is known to guide the next phase of CAADP.

Strengthening women’s livelihoods through the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA): Policy strategies for resilience and inclusion: The Bhubaneshwar Charter

Globally, there is increasing recognition of the significant potential for social protection programs to sup-port sustainable livelihoods and build household resilience to climatic and economic shocks (Jordan et al., 2021; Norton et al., 2020). For women—who disproportionately bear the burden of these shocks—such programs serve as a critical safety net and a pathway to economic empowerment (Kosec et al., 2023; Mason & Agan, 2015). Yet, the extent to which social protection delivers on this promise depends on robust financing, inclusive program design, and effective implementation. Evidence suggests that public interventions often fall short in addressing gender inequalities, and that complementary efforts must be made to redress entrenched disadvantages that women might face in shaping, accessing, and benefiting from these programs.

Synopsis: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development in Rwanda

The study systematically ranks investment options in the agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness across multiple development outcomes. Investments in SME processors and traders and livestock extension are the most cost-effective for promoting agrifood GDP growth and employment. SMEs and livestock services together with seed systems and credit access contribute positively to social outcomes (poverty, undernourishment, and diet). The analysis finds a trade-off between economic gains and environmental outcomes— higher GDP effects often come with greater environmental costs. The Rwandan case demonstrates a slight shift in the relative cost-effectiveness of investments when accounting for historical climatic risks. The study emphasizes the need for data-driven investment planning, climate-aware policies, and balancing short-term gains with long-term sustainability objectives.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: April 2025

Download time series food price data, and build graphs and tables for over 20 different food crops at our food price database webpage: https://www.ifpri.org/project/fresh-food-price-analysis-papua-new-guinea Compared to Q4 2024, average prices of staples across the PNG markets decreased by 15 percent from January to March 2025 The price of a 1-kilogram bag of imported rice remained relatively stable between January and February 2025. Compared to Q4 2024, the average 1-kg bag of rice price increased by 6 percent in the first quarter of 2025. Compared to Q4 2024, Q1 2025 price trends of fresh vegetables were mixed across commodities. In Port Moresby, prices of English cabbage, carrot and choko-tips were 12 percent lower, while aibika and capsicum were 24 percent higher than January and February 2024. Compared to Q4 2024, prices of lemon, orange, pawpaw and pineapple in Goroka and Kokopo decreased on average by 15 percent in Q1 2025.

Ethiopia: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Ethiopia’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) traders and processors are shown to be the most cost effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Extension services for livestock, credit for farmers, R&D (agronomy), and safety nets also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Rwanda: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present research findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Rwanda’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple devel opment outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at expanding agrifood GDP and employment, while extension and advisory services on livestock and climate emerge as the most efficient farmer-facing investments. However, crop ex tension services rank least in cost-effectiveness for economic and social outcomes. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Uganda: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Uganda’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their impact on environmental footprints, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at expanding agrifood GDP and employment, while livestock extension services rank highest among the farmer-facing investments. Most R&D related interventions rank lowest in terms of cost-effectiveness at achieving economic and social outcomes. However, many cost-effec tive investments have relatively high environmental footprints, highlighting tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and when ex treme production shocks occur.

Understanding women’s time use in farming communities: Insights from the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index

Agricultural programs targeting women may increase women’s work burdens and shift the distribution of work between productive and reproductive tasks. Complementary information on women’s sense of control over their time highlights additional benefits of agricultural programs beyond changes in women’s workloads. Despite program interventions, gender norms often persist, affecting how communities perceive work intensity and division of responsibilities between men and women. The relationship between women’s time use and nutrition is complex and interacts with mediating factors, requiring a multifaceted approach to program design and evaluation. Evidence linking time use data to nonfarm work is lacking, highlighting the need to leverage WEAI time use data to fill this critical gap.

Transforming fallow lands: An impact evaluation of the Comprehensive Rice Fallow Management (CRFM) Program in Odisha

The Comprehensive Rice Fallow Management (CRFM) program, initiated by the Department of Agriculture & Farmers’ Empowerment (DAFE), Government of Odisha, is a program to address the underutilization of rice fallow lands in Odisha, particularly during the Rabi (post-monsoon) season which occurs following the Kharif (monsoon) paddy harvest. CRFM was implemented to encourage cultivation of pulses and oilseeds that thrive on residual soil moisture. The CRFM program was implemented in 20 districts of Odisha, in collaboration with the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Government of India empaneled agencies that have a presence in the state and prior experience in similar programs. In the remaining 10 districts of the state, the CRFM program was implemented by the state government’s Chief District Agriculture Officers (CDAOs). The impacts of CRFM interventions evaluated in this study comprise crop demonstrations organized in clusters of at least 20 hectares, with crops like black gram, green gram, chickpeas, lentils, grass peas, sesamum, and mustard.

Excessive food price variability early warning system: Incorporating fertilizer prices

Low adoption of improved land management practices, including fertilizer use, is one of the main factors for low agricultural productivity in many developing countries. Rising agricultural productivity in many countries has been accompanied by greater fertilizer use. For example, sub-Saharan African countries, characterized by low agricultural productivity, have a very low fertilizer application rate, averaging 10 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) of nutrients of arable land, compared to 288 kg/ha in a high-income country (Hernandez and Torero, 2011). Considering the essential role that agriculture plays in the rural economy of many developing countries, many policies have been implemented to encourage sustainable fertilizer adoption. The effectiveness of different mechanisms remains though a topic of discussion. Hernandez and Torero (2013) and Hernandez and Torero (2018), for instance, note that fertilizer prices are generally higher in more concentrated markets at the global and local level. The authors argue that better understanding the dynamics of fertilizer prices in international markets can help in designing policies that promote sustainable fertilizer use in developing countries, which are increasingly dependent on imported fertilizer.

Structural changes and drivers of agrifood system growth in Tajikistan

The agricultural sector accounted for one-third and one-fourth of total GDP in 2011 in 2022, respectively. In 2022 compared to 2011, both primary and off farm agricultural GDPs dropped, respectively by 13.2 and 3 percentage points, while primary agriculture employment share fell by 10.4 percentage points. The domestic market played a vital role in the recent agrifood system (AFS) growth, and a sizable portion of locally produced agrifood products was able to meet domestic demand. Though agroprocessing an important off-farm component of the AFS, grew more rapidly and thus contributed the most to off farm AFS growth, the aggregate size of off-farm components of the AFS did not increase to match with the structural change in the broader economy.

Tajikistan’s agrifood system structure

Tajikistan’s agrifood system (AFS) accounted for 34.7 percent of Tajikistan’s national GDP and 58 percent of employment in 2022. Primary agriculture alone contributed one-quarter of total GDP and 54.9 percent of employment, while the four off-farm components of the AFS contributed about 10 percent of GDP and 3.2 percent of employment. The share of employment in primary agriculture in total employment in AFS (AgEmp+) is huge, 94 percent. The off-farm components of the AFS therefore accounted for close to 30 percent of AgGDP+ and only 5 percent of AgEMP+. Though Tajikistan is an agrarian economy, it imports a lot of foods, and the shares of imports in the country’s total merchandise imports are consistently high, around 22 percent between 2016 and 2022. For the same period, food exports as a percentage of total merchandise exports were just 3 percent (World Bank 2023). Agrifood imports also grew more rapidly, increasing by a multiple of 16 between 2000 and 2023, while exports only doubled over the same period (Khakimov, et al. 2024).

Assessing agrifood system growth outcomes in Tajikistan

On March 1, 2023, the Government of Tajikistan adopted a new sectoral program, “Agrifood System and Sustainable Development Program,” for the period up to 2030. The program defined six priorities, namely (1) strengthening institutions, (2) enabling physical infrastructure, (3) creating an agriculture extension system, (4) ensuring food and nutrition security, (5) ensuring food safety and, veterinary and plant protection, and (6) establishing effectively functioning value chains. The Program aims to ensure sustainable development of the sector and enhance its competitiveness through structural and institutional reforms, by boosting sector productivity, creating new jobs, and ensuring food security. To inform the policy by providing empirical evidence, in this brief, first we assess and compare diverse contributions of different agrifood value chains to broad development outcomes, second, we assess the effectiveness of agricultural productivity-led growth across agrifood value chain groups for achieving multiple development outcomes (economic growth, job creation, declining poverty, and improved diets) and inclusive agrifood system transformation in Tajikistan.

Navigating Nigeria’s food system challenges in the face of inflation and reform

Main Messages: 1. Low-income households in both urban and rural areas are hardest hit by rising food prices. Post-reform (fuel subsidies removal and exchange rate liberalization) price shocks and persistent inflation have disproportionately affected poor urban and rural households, forcing them to reduce food consumption and dietary diversity. Malnutrition and food insecurity are on the rise, particularly among children and women-headed households, with sharpest impacts in conflict-affected areas. 2. Small-scale farmers are not benefiting proportionately from price increases. Despite surging food prices, small-scale farmers face escalating input costs, poor market access, and structural in-efficiencies that leave them with marginal gains far below the rate of inflation. 3. Trading networks maintain healthy margins, amplifying systemic inefficiencies. Traders and intermediaries dominate the food supply chain, passing on increased costs to consumers while pre-serving or even increasing their profit margins, highlighting inequities in the distribution of benefits along the value chain. 4. Recent economic reforms and external shocks exacerbate structural weaknesses. Economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate adjustments, have amplified existing challenges in the food system, including high transport costs, inadequate infrastructure, and fragmented markets. 5. Policy interventions should protect vulnerable groups and strengthen local food systems. Addressing these disparities requires targeted safety nets for consumers, support for small-scale farmers, and systemic investments to reduce inefficiencies in the value chain while promoting cli-mate-resilient food systems.

Economic and welfare implications of the reduction of US foreign assistance in Malawi

For over a decade, the US has consistently ranked as either the largest or second-largest donor to Malawi. Annual foreign assistance disbursements have averaged over $360 million between 2020 and 2023. In January 2025 the US government suspended all US-funded foreign aid programs. As of April 2025, the available information suggests that funding for many of these programs in Malawi has been withdrawn, resulting in an estimated decline in US foreign assistance to Malawi of around 59% for 2025. As a result, Malawi faces a potential decline in foreign exchange inflows of around $177 million in 2025, a loss equivalent to approximately 6.3% of the annual merchandise import bill. With Malawi’s economy currently highly vulnerable, lacking the buffers needed to absorb shocks, the eco nomic and welfare implications of these recent events are concerning. The suspensions may lead to an economic contraction from reduced activities by US implementing partners, immediate pressure on the exchange rate (endangering the affordability or availability of critical imports) and declining productivity in key sectors such as agriculture. Deteriorating health and education outcomes could further affect the productivity of workers in the longer run. In this policy note we combine qualitative and quantitative information gathered in-country with modeled results of the possible economywide impacts of the reduction of US foreign assistance on key economic and welfare indicators over the next six years. We also discuss policy options that could help mitigate some of the adverse impacts.

Ghana: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Ghana’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources: 1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and 2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Ghanaian economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather. The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment. The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Ghana. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors. The results suggest that Ghana’s trade-oriented economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with fluctuations in world prices of key exports—particularly energy and metals—significantly influencing eco nomic activity and the country’s ability to finance imports. Poverty and undernourishment risks present a more complex picture, with a significant difference between urban and rural risk factors. Rural households, which are generally poorer than urban households and constitute the majority of the poor and undernourished population, are more exposed to domestic production volatility factors. Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.

Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Uganda’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources: 1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and 2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Uganda economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather. The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment. The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Uganda. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors. The results suggest that domestic production volatility is the primary risk factor affecting GDP and poverty in Uganda, whereas world markets and domestic risks are equally important for household consumption and undernourishment. Individually, the most critical risk factors identified include production volatility in root crops, volatility in foreign capital flows, and volatility in fishery production, with the latter being particularly significant for rural low-income households. Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.

IFPRI-Sudan: Generating evidence-based solutions for strengthening humanitarian response and economic resilience

Sudan is experiencing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history due to the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Sudan is now suffering the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. The war has devastated livelihoods, displaced millions, and significantly weakened the country’s agrifood systems and broader economic structures. In response, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), along with its partners, has intensified its research and policy engagement in Sudan through the Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), which was launched in 2022. IFPRI’s work on Sudan is centered on addressing fragility, post-conflict recovery, resilience-building, and economic development. Its research and policy engagements focus on food security, economy-wide modeling, social protection, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSME), and agricultural resilience as it works to provide critical evidence-based insights to support recovery efforts that will enable Sudan to regain peace and economic growth and stability. Through high-frequency data collection, impact evaluations, and policy dialogues, the SSSP team has continued to deliver data-driven solutions to inform humanitarian responses, economic revitalization, and development planning in Sudan. By collaborating with organizations such as the World Food Programme (WFP), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank, and other CGIAR centers and initiatives, IFPRI, through SSSP, has generated information to design effective interventions for conflict-affected populations and institutions working to rebuild Sudan’s economy.

Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP): Background and research output

The Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), one of the country programs of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), commenced operations in May 2022 from the premises of the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, its official host institution in Sudan. Established with funding from USAID, the United States Agency for International Development, the program has also formed partnerships or received support from a number of prominent organizations, including the CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration, the CGIAR Initiative on NEXUS Gains, the United Nations Development Programme, the World Bank, the World Food Programme, the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).

Synopsis: Commercialization and dietary diversity of Rwandan smallholder farmers: a focus on women and youth headed households

In the last two decades, the government of Rwanda has significantly lowered stunting among children under five years from 48% in 2000 to 33% in 2020 and recognizes dietary diversity as one the approaches to overcome malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. A key priority of the Second National Strategy for Transformation (NST2) is to tackle malnutrition and to reduce stunting rates among children. Therefore, using a household dietary diversity score as a proxy for household access to nutritious foods, this policy note outlines how commercialization impacts dietary diversity, with a focus on women and youth headed households. Key findings include: The rural smallholder farmers diet is predominantly based on cereals, roots and tubers as well as vegetables. Even when controlling for relevant variables, women do not have more diverse consumption patterns, however, they do, relative to male headed households, consume more diverse foods the greater their level of commercialization. Despite an overall lack of resources and income, youth-headed households show a positive relationship with household dietary diversity when compared to mature-headed households. Determinants that positively influence household dietary diversity include the level of commercialization, household non-farm assets, market access, education of the household head, the presence of children under five in the household, irrigation, land size, and livestock holdings.

Ethiopia: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are Ethiopia’s national economy and population to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to Ethiopia’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?