IFPRI Publications: Journal Articles

Can a light-touch graduation model enhance livelihood outcomes? Evidence from Ethiopia

When prices spike: Identifying excessive volatility in fertilizer markets

Sharp and volatile fertilizer price movements can hinder adoption and reduce agricultural productivity, especially among vulnerable smallholders. Using a nonparametric location-scale approach to model price returns, we quantify the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR)—the high return threshold exceeded with low probability—to identify excessive price spikes in potash, urea, and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) markets. We use the bias-corrected estimator from Martins-Filho et al., (2018) and propose a simpler estimator based on Hill (1975). Backtesting results indicate superior performance of the Hill-based estimator, supporting its value as a convenient method for detecting unusual fertilizer price surges amid recurring global volatility.

Associations between Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) and obesity in women of reproductive age in Northern Tanzania: A cross-sectional study

Background Obesity is an increasing problem among women of reproductive age (WRA) in Tanzania. Objective We described WRA’s nutritional status by socio-demographic factors and assessed associations with diet quality. Methods We analysed baseline data from a cluster-randomised controlled trial in Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions (n=2,415). Diet was assessed using a quantitative 24-hour recall. We calculated the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS; 0-49), with higher scores indicating healthier diet. General obesity was defined as body mass index (BMI)≥30 kg/m2; morbid obesity as BMI≥35 kg/m2; and central obesity as: waist circumference (WC)≥80 cm, WC≥88 cm, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR)≥0.85, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR)≥0.50, and WHR≥0.85 or BMI≥30 kg/m2. We tested associations between diet quality and nutritional status using generalised linear models controlling for age and sociodemographic factors and tested interactions to assess differential associations by age groups. Results The prevalence of general obesity was 25.1%, morbid obesity 8.4%, and central obesity 48.2-71.6% depending on the definition. Mean GDQS was 20.9±3.9. General and central obesity were more prevalent among women who were older, less educated, had light physical labour occupations, were in the highest wealth quintile, and lived in more urbanised villages and in more food secure households. Higher GDQS was associated with lower risk of morbid obesity: risk ratio (RR) 0.97 (95% CI 0.94, 1.00). Higher GDQS was also associated with 0.25-0.27 kg/m2 lower BMI, 0.54-0.66 cm lower WC, and 0.53-0.58 cm lower hip circumference in women 30-49 years of age. Conclusion Better diet quality emerged as a protective factor for morbid obesity and for other obesity measures among women 30-49 years of age. Our study suggests that interventions to improve diet quality in Tanzania should target women in their thirties and forties and those with lower physical activity and higher education, food security, and wealth to maximise effectiveness.

Empowerment unveiled: Gender dynamics and the impact of nutrition-sensitive agriculture interventions among ethnic minority groups in northern Vietnam

Gender equality and women’s empowerment are key global agendas, yet women often face marginalization compared to men. Nutrition-sensitive agriculture interventions (NSAs) often aim to benefit women but their impacts on women’s empowerment remain unclear. This study focuses on: 1) assessing the empowerment levels of women and men from three ethnic minorities in rural northern Vietnam (Thai, H’Mong and Dao) with the Project-level women’s empowerment in agriculture index (Pro-WEAI); 2) examining the potential of NSA to improve women’s empowerment during COVID-19 pandemic; and 3) applying an intersectional lens by analyzing how empowerment and treatment effects vary by ethnic subgroups. We conducted a Randomized controlled trial (RCT) involving around 600 rural households from 36 clusters that were randomly assigned to one of the following three treatment arms: receiving agriculture and nutrition training; receiving seed provision on top of the training; and a control group. We found that both men and women experienced disempowerment, due to ethnicity and systemic ethnical marginalization. While no significant gender discrimination in resource access was found, women faced limited mobility, overburdened workload and diminished agencies. Empowerment experiences varied across ethnicities. The NSAs improved women’s mobility and group membership, yet carried different implications across ethnicities, potentially due to the interaction between the intervention, initial contextual conditions and the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, NSAs alone cannot achieve structural empowerment. Meaningful and lasting empowerment requires integrated approaches that address interconnected social, political, and cultural factors.

Network effects in household consumption patterns: Evidence from northern Ghana

We study peer effects in consumption patterns and their associated welfare implications among rural farm households in northern Ghana using a panel data set. We construct a social interaction network based on household-specific locations and employ a spatial econometric approach that leverages the structure of the peer networks to identify peer effects. The results indicate that peers’ consumption patterns significantly influence individual consumption decisions, with the magnitude of this effect varying across farm households depending on their resource endowments. We also find that information exchange and partial risk-sharing behaviors drive these peer effects. Overall, our findings suggest that government interventions aimed at enhancing household consumption through transfers would be more effective if targeted at households with relatively large peer networks. In addition, anti-poverty and income-improvement programs can leverage peer networks to enhance their overall impact.

Pork safety across Vietnam’s traditional markets: microbial contamination and vendor knowledge, attitudes, and practices

Foodborne diseases are a major cause of illness in low- and middle-income countries, and most are due to fresh foods sold in traditional markets. Contamination with foodborne pathogens, especially Salmonella spp., continues to be common in these markets. To better understand why this is the case, this study assessed total bacteria count (TBC) and Salmonella in pork across Vietnamese traditional markets and evaluated vendors’ food safety knowledge, attitudes, and practices, examining their associations with contamination. Data was collected in 68 markets across five provinces, with up to 10 pork vendors per market randomly selected. Microbiological data were collected through cut pork samples and cutting boards swabs (n=396), along with structured questionnaires and observations with vendors (n=486). Cutting board swabs were analyzed for TBC only, while cut pork was tested for both TBC and Salmonella. Linear and generalized linear mixed-effects models were constructed to identify risk factors for TBC and Salmonella prevalence. The overall Salmonella prevalence in cut pork was 64.4% (255/396) and was significantly higher in southern provinces (86.8%) compared to the north (47.5%, p < 0.01). TBC was high in pork and cutting boards (6.4 log₁₀CFU/g and 6.9 log₁₀CFU/cm², respectively), and only 30% of the pork samples met the Vietnamese standard for TBC in fresh meat. Selling of organs was associated with a higher TBC (coefficient = 0.13, CI: 0.01–0.26, p = 0.03) and greater Salmonella risk (OR = 2.04, p = 0.009). Temperature significantly increased both outcomes (p < 0.001), while using easy-to-clean surfaces reduced TBC levels (coefficient = -0.16, CI: -0.30 to -0.01, p = 0.03). Vendors demonstrated limited food safety knowledge and mixed attitudes. Observations revealed poor hygienic practices, such as displaying pork on cardboard or cloth or lack of washing with soap and disinfectants, which was influenced by limited access to facilities and equipment. Regional differences suggested contamination levels were influenced by both environmental and market-related factors. These findings highlight the need for holistic interventions targeting an enabling environment, appropriate equipment, and behavioral incentives.

Learning effects of an experiential groundwater resource game in north-eastern Ghana

The growth of dry season farming in Ghana is putting increased pressure on groundwater resources. Using mixed methods this paper examines the learning effect of an experiential groundwater resource game in Ghana’s Upper East Region that simulates real-life resource use and common-pool resource management dilemmas. Results indicate short and medium-term learnings associated with participation in the game. During the game, group interaction and communication improved cooperation and led to more sustainable game behaviours. The gender-specific analysis indicates that females and males may learn and respond differently to the game. Males exhibited more sustainable game behaviours with increased communication and rules whereas female groups showed more learning from round to round. The positive learning effects from the game persisted 12 months after the intervention. Debriefing and focus group participants mentioned lessons learned about the depletable and shared nature of groundwater resources and the importance of communication and collective governance. Participants also described selecting water conserving crops and creating community watering schedules to manage water use. Findings highlight the important role experiential learning games can play in increasing knowledge, motivation, and agency associated with sustainable natural resource use.

Wholesalers and the transformation of the “hidden middle” of the aquaculture value chain in Bangladesh

The rapid growth of aquaculture in Bangladesh over the past 30 years has been accompanied by a proliferation of wholesalers. Wholesalers are often assumed in academic and public discourse to be exploitative and inefficient: extracting rents rather than driving technological change. This view gives rise to development programs that seek to bypass marketing intermediaries or upgrade their practices. However, there has been little rigorous research on the behavior of wholesalers and its implications for outcomes of value chain performance, including food security. To address this gap, we implemented a statistically representative survey of 229 aquatic food wholesalers in 31 markets in one of Bangladesh’s most important aquaculture zones. We found the following. (1) The wholesale segment of the aquaculture value chain has grown rapidly. (2) Markets are increasingly competitive, with open auctions leading to disintermediation and transparent pricing. (3) Wholesale businesses operate on thin margins. (4) Very little food loss or waste occurs in the farm, wholesale, or retail value chain segments in the study zone. (5) Trading aquaculture products generates substantial employment for men but little for women. Contrary to popular belief, the midstream of the aquaculture value chain in southern Bangladesh is dynamic and efficient. The paper contributes to a growing literature highlighting the contributions that micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in the “hidden middle” segments of agri-food value chains make to food security.

Global assessment of childhood growth monitoring: Cross-sectional survey of national policies and practices

Background Monitoring children’s growth is crucial in paediatric care for early identification of health issues, with the World Health Organization (WHO) advocating for its practice throughout childhood. However, the focus and implementation of growth monitoring vary globally, reflecting different health priorities and practices. Methods We conducted a global, cross-sectional, questionnaire-based survey, targeted at representatives of the ministry responsible for growth monitoring and promotion, and at representatives of national paediatric societies. Results We obtained responses from 122 countries. Of these, 88% had national growth monitoring guidance, most often issued by the ministry of health. Weight was the most consistently measured early childhood growth monitoring indicator, recorded routinely in 98% of countries during growth monitoring visits for children aged <1 year. The WHO Child Growth Standards were used in 86% of countries. The most common follow-up action for growth faltering was provision of nutritional or health advice, cited by 91% of respondents for children aged <1 year, with advice frequency decreasing as child age increased. Conclusions Childhood growth monitoring is widely adopted, but implemented with considerable variation across countries. Strengthening its impact will require standardising indicators, integrating evidence-based guidelines into primary care, and ensuring equitable, actionable use across age groups.

When water runs out: Adaptation to gradual environmental change in Indian agriculture

Increasing water scarcity will affect hundreds of millions of smallholder farmers in coming decades, but little is known about the likely forms of adaptation. This study exploits a natural experiment in which heterogeneous geological formations affect the rate of groundwater depletion across 40 villages in Gujarat, India, to provide novel evidence on this question. The analysis reveals that greater water scarcity leads to widespread declines in irrigated agriculture and enhanced migration to cities, but only among dominant socio-economic groups. No evidence is found of substantial compensating investments in water-efficient technologies or in human capital, despite farmers having long been aware of the decline in water levels.

A descriptive analysis of smartphone access and frontline service delivery during the COVID-19 lockdown in Chhattisgarh, India

Validity of the Diet Quality Questionnaire Compared with Observed Intake for Estimating Population-Level Diet Quality in Rwandan Adults

Background The diet quality questionnaire (DQQ) is a standardized low-burden tool for collecting data on minimum dietary diversity for women (MDD-W) and other population-level diet quality indicators related to risk of noncommunicable disease (NCD). Although 24-h recalls (24hRs) are often used for evaluating validity of DQQ, they may underestimate consumption of specific food groups. Therefore, comparison with observed weighed food records (OWFR), can provide a more accurate assessment of DQQ criterion validity. Objective The aim of this study is to evaluate criterion validity of DQQ for estimating population-level diet quality using OWFR and 24hR as reference methods. Methods Cross-sectional data were collected among 281 Rwandan adults (Musanze district), using OWFR, DQQ, and 24hR on the same day. Diet quality indicators derived from each method were compared using parametric and nonparametric methods and the method of triads, which calculates pairwise validity coefficients to evaluate accuracy (low: <0.30; moderate: 0.30–0.70; high >0.70). Results Mean percent agreement in food group consumption data was high: 93% (DQQ-OWFR; DQQ-24hR). Compared with OWFR, DQQ overestimated MDD-W-prevalence [DQQ: 46.0% compared with OWFR: 40.4%; +6 percentage points (pp), P > 0.05], whereas using 24hR, the MDD-W-prevalence was 29.8% (16.2 pp < DQQ, P < 0.05, and 10.6 pp < OWFR, P < 0.05). Compared with OWFR, mean scores of food group diversity score (FGDS) and NCD-protect were 0.2 (ns) and 0.2 (P = 0.01) points higher by DQQ, respectively, and 0.4 (P < 0.001) points higher by DQQ compared with 24hR. NCD-risk median scores were 0 across methods. For DQQ, validity coefficients were 0.70 (FGDS), 0.67 (NCD-protect), and 0.66 (NCD-risk), compared with 0.93, 0.89, and 0.59 for OWFR, respectively, and 0.84, 0.83, and 0.98 for 24hR, respectively. Conclusions The DQQ showed high agreement with OWFR and 24hR for collecting population-level food group consumption data, and slight overestimations of diet quality indicator scores compared with observed intakes. DQQ is a valid and practical method for collecting population-level food group consumption data and estimating diet quality.

The effect of teacher training and community literacy programming on teacher and student outcomes

Motivated by extremely low levels of basic reading skills in sub-Saharan Africa, we experimentally evaluate two interventions designed to enhance students’ early-grade literacy performance in rural Mozambique: a relatively light-touch, scalable teacher training in early-grade literacy including the provision of pedagogical materials, and teacher training and materials in conjunction with community-level reading camps. Using data from 1,596 third graders in 160 rural public primary schools, we find no evidence that either intervention improved teachers’ pedagogical knowledge or practices or student or teacher attendance following two years of implementation. There are some weak positive effects on student reading as measured by a literacy assessment, primarily observed in a shift away from scores of zero, and these effects are consistent across arms. Our findings are aligned with the growing consensus that more intensive school- and/or community-based interventions are required to meaningfully improve learning.

Agricultural technology adoption and deforestation: Evidence from a randomized control trial

We study the effect of the adoption of improved agricultural inputs on deforestation using a randomized control trial in Nigeria which introduced a more efficient and environmentally-friendly nitrogen fertilizer. We combine survey data from the intervention with earth observation data to develop a generalizable method for evaluating the effects of cluster-level interventions on landscape-level outcomes. We find evidence of an intensification response to treatment exposure that reflects significant heterogeneity across land cover. On land with relatively sparse pre-intervention tree cover, treatment exposure increased deforestation while in denser forest areas the intervention reduced deforestation. We find corresponding effects showing treatment exposure increases agricultural productivity. Our results reflect an intensification response to improved agricultural technology that redirects agricultural activity away from forests and towards existing cropland.

Transfers, information and management advice: Direct effects and complementarities in Malawi

We examine a program designed to alleviate credit, information, and farm management constraints among smallholder cash crop farmers through transfers and a cross-randomized program offering intensive agricultural extension. We document strong complementarities between the two sets of interventions. Investment driven by increased labor expenditures, production, and consumption are highest for farmers that received both transfers and intensive extension, a pattern that persists two and three years later. In the short run, transfers alone led to the reallocation of input expenditures into increased labor for cash crop cultivation, which led to increased production of project focal crops but not total crop production. While farmers in the transfers only group continue to spend more on labor in subsequent seasons, this does not lead to changes in production or consumption, suggesting that the support of the intensive extension was important for the generation of the largest welfare gains from the transfers.

Increasing women’s empowerment: Evaluating two interventions in Uganda

We conduct a randomized controlled trial to test a novel intervention for increasing women’s empowerment in Uganda. The intervention includes a within-household transfer of a productive asset, which has a lower cost than an external transfer. We find that transferring control of some of the household’s sugarcane to the wife significantly increases her access to resources and decision-making power. We also document increases in women’s empowerment arising from a cross-randomized couples’ workshop that improved women’s self-concept and shifted beliefs in gender equality. We find no additional impacts from combining the two interventions. Importantly, neither intervention harms the household’s productivity or husbands’ welfare. In fact, men (and women) report higher marital quality and life satisfaction as a result. However, despite increasing women’s empowerment we find no evidence that the interventions increased measured household investment in food security, child health, or education.

How much do our neighbors really know? The limits of community-based targeting

Social assistance programs in developing countries often rely on local community members to identify potential beneficiaries. As community members may observe neighbors’ welfare, their reports may capture transitory shocks better than the proxies typically observable by a centralized policy implementer. To test this, we conduct a lab-style experiment in Central Java, in which participants rank other community members’ welfare, using benchmarks that vary in sensitivity to transitory shocks, and target small cash transfers. We find little evidence that community-held welfare information better reflects transitory shocks and find that targeting decisions mostly depend on perceived differences in overall wealth. JEL Codes: O12, I32, D83

Constraints and promising interventions to strengthen fish seed systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Ghana

CONTEXT Aquaculture has surpassed capture fisheries in terms of production and is among the fastest growing food sectors. It has great potential to contribute to food security and nutrition, poverty reduction, jobs, and environmental sustainability. Fish seed is increasingly considered to be a major driver and disabler of aquaculture development. However, little is known about how fish seed systems operate, their challenges and opportunities, or entry points for strengthening them. OBJECTIVE This study analyzes primary data on the challenges and opportunities faced by various actors along the fish seed chain, documents the lessons from a fish seed project (Ghana Tilapia Seed Project, 2019–2022), and provides an analysis of entry points for strengthening fish seed systems. METHODS Using an analytical framework that tracks germplasm base, seed production and quality, seed availability and distribution, and the information flow along the fish seed value chain, we analyze the case of Ghana, the top producer of farmed tilapia in sub-Saharan Africa. The study uses a mixed-methods approach, including value chain analysis, action-oriented research methods, and statistical analysis of survey data. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Findings indicate that the initial rapid growth in tilapia production in Ghana was partly due to an improved local strain released in 2004; however, the recent stagnation is largely caused by seed-related issues (poor maintenance and improvement of germplasm base, seed quality and availability, lack of information and coordination, and lack of enforcement of regulations). This study highlights the successes and lessons learned from the Ghana Tilapia Seed Project on broodstock distribution, training on fingerling production, establishment of nurseries, and training of fish farmers. The lessons highlight the need for policy changes and capacity building related to strain development and broodstock management. SIGNIFICANCE These findings fill the large gap in evidence on the functioning of fish seed systems and how to strengthen them. They can directly inform ongoing country-level efforts and programs aiming to develop aquaculture.

COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic had profound effects on livelihoods across rural populations worldwide. Building on earlier work that examined the initial effects of the pandemic on food security and nutrition among smallholder agricultural households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala, this study offers a longer-term assessment of the impacts and the path to recovery. We rely on a unique longitudinal survey of 1,262 households conducted over four rounds between 2019 and 2022, with the first round in person and the subsequent ones by phone. The results show substantial recoveries in food security and dietary diversity in the region by mid-2022 compared to 2020, but at levels still worse than pre-pandemic ones for some indicators. There is also a sustained increase in the intention to emigrate. The households that were initially more affected in terms of food security and nutrition but recovered faster include those located in one of the three studied departments and families living above the poverty line, while smallholders affected by hurricanes, non-coffee producers, and indigenous populations took longer to recover. We additionally provide quantitative estimates for a subsample of households interviewed in person during a fifth survey round at the end of 2022, showing an average decline of about 16 percent in total household income three years after the start of the pandemic, mainly driven by a decrease in agricultural income, combined with a 26-percent increase in expenditures and an important surge in indebtedness. Overall, the study offers valuable lessons regarding the recovery of vulnerable households following a major global crisis and in a context of additional shocks.

Estimating multidimensional development resilience

Existing measures of resilience are typically based on a single well-being indicator. This is problematic in contexts where households face deprivations across multiple dimensions. We develop a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approaches with multidimensional poverty measurement methods. Applying these to household panel data from Ethiopia, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions. Univariate resilience measures constructed using consumption expenditure, dietary diversity and livestock asset holdings show distinct temporal and spatial distributional patterns. But while univariate measures are weakly correlated with one another and with different well-being metrics, multivariate measures exhibit much stronger rank correlations. When we contrast univariate measures of resilience to multidimensional measures of resilience, we find that the latter vary less over the study period; multidimensional resilience measures seem to capture more “persistent or structural” vulnerability and associated capacity of households. We also demonstrate the differences in these univariate and multivariate measures, including the potential of the composite multidimensional resilience measures for supporting targeting processes.

Higher altitude stunts children’s physical growth: A systematic review and meta-analysis

How can anticipatory action programming support women? Application of the reach-benefit-empower-transform framework in Nepal and Nigeria

Exposure and disease burden of fumonisins and aflatoxins from sorghum consumption in Ethiopia

Studies on mycotoxin exposure from sorghum consumption and related public health risk estimation are rarely available in Ethiopia. The aim of this research was to assess fumonisin and aflatoxin exposure of adults through sorghum consumption in the Amhara National Regional State (ANRS) and at national level in Ethiopia and to estimate related health risks. Data on fumonisin and aflatoxin concentrations in sorghum samples were collected from a survey and literature. Estimated fumonisin exposure in the ANRS and at national level were below the FAO/WHO limit of 2000 ng/kg bw day to be considered a health concern. The estimated aflatoxin exposure levels in the ANRS and at national level fall below the Margin of Exposure value of 10000, indicating potential health concern. The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma due to aflatoxin exposure in the ANRS ranges from 0.0003 to 0.017 while at national level, it ranges from 0.181 to 8.47 (per100.000 persons/year). The related disability-adjusted life years estimates for the ANRS and at national level ranged from 0.0003 to 0.019 and 0.204 to 11.230, respectively. Aflatoxin exposures were driven more by sorghum intake than aflatoxin contamination. Dietary intervention could further reduce the health risk estimates.

Gendered networks and demand for an agricultural technology in India

Studies on social learning and technology adoption often only consider the networks of a single individual in a household as a source of information influencing agricultural production decisions. We test the validity of this assumption by examining the role of men’s and women’s social networks in the adoption of a novel water-saving technology, laser land leveling (LLL), in India. Using network data from men and women in the same household, we test the influence of being connected to an adopter on demand for LLL. We identify the causal gender-specific network effects using a field experiment that combines an auction with a lottery for the technology, making the presence of adopters in networks exogenous. The data reveal that men’s and women’s networks vary in size and show little overlap. We find that whereas household demand for LLL increases when men are linked to an LLL-adopting household, it decreases when the network linkages run through women. These gender-differentiated effects are concentrated in households where the woman’s opinion about the technology is valued by the man and in non-poor households. The results highlight that social learning may interact with the socio-demographic characteristics of households in myriad ways to influence household technology adoption decisions, and that agricultural-based information interventions ought to also consider how information gets used in the household. JEL classification: D13; Q12; Q16

Using best-worst scaling to inform agroecological interventions in Western Kenya

Both the demand for food and the environmental impacts of food production are estimated to significantly increase by 2050. Agroecological interventions have proven effective in facilitating the transition from current food production systems to more sustainable ones. These interventions can not only ensure more equitable food and nutritional security but also address poverty and reduce environmental impacts. As such, agroecological interventions can generate both private and public ecosystem services. Farmers play a key role in how food is produced, as the practices they use are linked with their preferences and expertise, as well as the constraints they face. Understanding farmers’ preferences for the adoption of different agroecological practices and their perceptions of the associated costs and benefits is critical to informing policies that can effectively support farmers in transitioning to more sustainable practices, including those that contribute to the generation of ecosystem services highly valued by broader society. To assess such preferences, we conducted a survey among farmers in Western Kenya which included a best-worst scaling experiment augmented by qualitative questions about the reasons for farmers’ views about the importance of the benefits arising from agroecological practices. Results show that farmers have strong preferences for adopting agroecological practices that generate private goods and are directly related to increasing productivity and food security, including improving health of household members. These may also include practices that have some public good elements as well, such as increasing agrobiodiversity. However, practices that generate broader public good benefits, including improved forest quality/coverage, reduced off-farm environmental impacts, greater community-level resilience to shocks, and improved landscape and wildlife management, were less important to farmers. Such findings can be used to inform policies that support farmer adoption of agroecological interventions best suited to different farming communities, as well as indicating the need for additional types of market-based incentives, such as through Payments for Ecosystem Service mechanisms.

Disruptions to agrifood value chains in fragile and conflict-affected states: Evidence from Myanmar

Agrifood value chains (AVCs) play crucial roles in food security in fragile and conflict-affected economies where there are widespread challenges and disruptions to business operations, food access, and incomes. Yet, given these challenges, safe data collection is challenging in conflict-affected settings and, as a result, the evidence on the disruptions AVC businesses face is thin. In this paper, we rely on novel panel data from AVC businesses in Myanmar, one of 7 countries in the world with extreme conflict. This short paper documents the disruptions experienced by businesses at several levels of the food supply chain, including farmers, input retailers, crop traders, rice millers, and food vendors. We also provide evidence on the implications for prices by analyzing price changes over this period: farm input and sales prices using farm survey data, food retail using data from food vendors, and dietary cost estimates combining consumption and price data. Our results highlight vulnerabilities in food supply chains in fragile and conflict-affected settings. Potential opportunities to strengthen food supply chains in such settings include ensuring access to banking and financial services; minimizing transportation disruptions to mitigate widening gaps between producer and consumer prices; and maintaining access to fuel and electricity as well as cellphone internet networks. Efforts to support these areas could stabilize food availability and reduce food prices, while also increasing farm-gate shares of food prices thereby supporting rural incomes. JEL codes: Q13; Q11; 013

Saving lives through technology: Mobile phones and infant mortality

Diets, fruit and vegetables consumption, and nutritional status in Benin: A scoping review

Unhealthy diets, including low fruit and vegetables (F&V) intake, contribute to morbidity and mortality related to non-communicable diseases. Designing culturally appropriate interventions to improve diets and F&V intake requires an in-depth understanding of individual-level dietary patterns, household consumption patterns, and nutritional status resulting from inadequate F&V intake. In this scoping review, we summarised the literature on diets, F&V intake, and nutritional status in Benin. We searched PubMed from 2012 to August 2024 to identify articles on diets and nutritional status, and from 2002 to August 2024 to identify articles on F&V intake. We included 36 articles on diets, 27 on F&V intake, and 16 on nutritional status. Existing literature demonstrated that Beninese diets are cereal-based and monotonous, characterised by low diversity and low F&V intake across all population groups. Available evidence indicated a high burden of undernutrition in children <5 years of age, a rising prevalence of overnutrition in women of reproductive age, and a high prevalence of overnutrition in adults. Evidence on how diets and F&V intake vary by urban/rural location, season, and socioeconomic characteristics was limited and inconsistent. Two evaluations of garden irrigation programmes assessed impacts on women's dietary diversity and F&V consumption. Additional research is needed to improve our understanding of diets, F&V intake, and diet-related nutritional challenges and how they evolve over time and across different population groups. Understanding these gaps can help identify entry points and targets for interventions to improve diet quality and F&V intake in Benin.

A mixed‐method study on gender and intrahousehold differences in food consumption from Khatlon Province, Tajikistan

Tajikistan faces significant food insecurity and multiple forms of malnutrition in its population, with women particularly at risk. Social norms related to gender and intrahousehold hierarchy are pervasive. Yet, how gender impacts dietary intake in Tajikistan remains to be studied. Understanding this mechanism is critical to develop adequate strategies for effective, equitable progress in mitigating malnutrition and food insecurity. An explanatory sequential mixed-methods study was conducted to assess the extent and identify the drivers of gender-based and intrahousehold differences in dietary diversity in Khatlon Province, Tajikistan. Predictors of dietary diversity were statistically assessed using quantitative survey data from 1704 adults who participated in the 2023 USAID/IFPRI Population-Based Survey. Qualitative data from 12 focus group discussions, 19 individual interviews, and 21 Photovoice interviews were analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis to further ascertain and understand these drivers. Gender was identified as a predictor of dietary diversity in both quantitative and qualitative findings. Women reported lower dietary diversity than men, even within in the same household. Gender norms contribute to unequal food distribution and opportunities to consume food away from the household. Expressing social values such as respect during mealtimes and perceptions of dietary needs prioritize men and children over women in consuming foods deemed more nutritious (e.g., meat). This study highlights the importance of considering household dynamics and gender roles in equitably addressing food and nutrition insecurity and malnutrition. Mitigating malnutrition in Tajikistan will necessitate gender equity-focused social behavior change interventions targeting women and men across different generations.

Promoting regional income equity under structural transformation and climate change: An economywide analysis for Senegal

Strengthening women’s resilience and participation in climate governance in the agrifood sector through public policies: A strategic review of literature

Women are uniquely vulnerable to climate change but play a critical role in enhancing the climate resilience of the agrifood sector. Based on a rapid review of academic and grey literature, this paper synthesizes the state of knowledge on the level of integration of gender aspects in climate change policies and women’s involvement in policy processes in the Global South. It examines women’s participation in climate change governance, strategies for enhancing this participation, and policy approaches to strengthen women’s resilience while addressing gender inequalities. Findings show that public policies often employ quotas, incentives, and capacity building initiatives to boost women’s participation in governance. However, meaningful engagement in higher-level decision-making remains limited, with quotas sometimes resulting in superficial involvement. Facilitating women’s access to agrifood resources, human capital, and economic opportunities, as well as addressing harmful gender norms, are identified as effective strategies to build resilience. Despite these promising approaches, gaps remain in the implementation and evaluation of policies aimed at enhancing women’s resilience and participation. The paper concludes by recommending outcome-oriented research and robust evaluations of public policy effectiveness in improving women’s climate resilience and governance roles.

Diets, fruit and vegetable intake and nutritional status among children, adolescents and adults in the Philippines: A scoping review

Suboptimal diets contribute to the risk of malnutrition and non-communicable diseases across the life course. Globally, intakes of fruit and vegetables (F&V) fall below recommendations, including in the Philippines. To promote F&V intakes, understanding the extent of inadequate intakes across population groups and key drivers of dietary patterns is needed. This narrative scoping review was conducted to map the diet, F&V intakes and nutritional status in the Philippines. PubMed was searched using keywords specific to diet, F&V intake, and nutritional status, with 50, 24 and 22 articles meeting the inclusion criteria for diet, F&V intake, and nutritional status, respectively. Available evidence indicates that across all population and sociodemographic groups, diets lacked diversity, with high intakes of energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods, such as refined rice and sugar-based foods and beverages, contributing to inadequate micronutrient intakes. Intakes of F&V were especially low across all population groups. Stunting/short height, wasting and underweight were prevalent among children and adolescents, and micronutrient deficiencies (iron, zinc, vitamin A) were common among children < 5 years of age. More than one-quarter of adults were overweight or obese and demonstrated poor cardiometabolic health. A lack of published evidence identified through this search reported on pregnant and lactating women and women of reproductive age. Published evaluations assessing the impact of interventions or programmes to improve diets or F&V intake were limited. Additional research to fill these gaps will help design interventions and target entry points to improve diet diversity and F&V intakes across all population groups.

Income aspirations and migration: Evidence from rural Tajikistan

In places with limited employment opportunities, households aspiring to increase their income are mainly left with two options: either (a) invest locally in their farm or non-farm enterprises, or (b) earn income elsewhere via migration. With survey data from 1,705 respondents from rural Tajikistan, we analyze the relationship between income aspirations and household investment strategies, and we contrast this to the relationship between income aspirations and international migration. We find evidence of a strong link between the income aspirations gap and international migration, but, strikingly, we do not observe any association between the income aspirations gap and local investment in farm or non-farm assets. These results suggest that households do not view local investment as a viable strategy for increasing income. Exploring heterogeneity, we find that these results can vary by household poverty status and household land endowments, but not by the respondent’s gender. Given the prominence of migration in the study area, this also suggests that remittances commonly serve different purposes than farm or non-farm investments — such as supporting households in their day-to-day expenditures or funding major ritual events.

Commuting, transport infrastructure and gender: Evidence from Indian metros

JEL Classification: J60; J68; R41; R50

Anaemia among mother-child dyads in India: Trends, drivers, and future projections

Anaemia among mothers and their children is a widespread public health challenge with profound consequences for individuals and societies. While anaemia has been studied separately in women and children, there remains a literature gap examining anaemia in mother-child dyads, limiting insights on interventions that may simultaneously address anaemia in both groups. Our study examines trends and drivers of anaemia among mother-child dyads (mothers aged 15–49 years and their children aged 6–59 months; N = 408,342) in India using nationally-representative data from 2006 to 2021 and estimates the potential future reduction in anaemia among mother-child dyads based on changes in selected drivers. We employed descriptive statistics, multivariable logistic regression and population attributable fraction (PAF) analysis. The co-occurrence of anaemia among mothers-child dyads changed very slightly, from 35% in 2006% to 33% in 2016 and to 37% in 2021. Subnational analyses revealed varying trends by states, with Delhi showing the highest increase (17%–32%) and Sikkim the largest decrease (29%–16%) between 2006 and 2021. Maternal education, regular consumption of nonvegetarian food and green leafy vegetables, consumption of iron folic acid supplements, utilization of government health services, and improved sanitation at both household and community levels were associated with lower likelihood of anaemia among mother-child dyads. The cumulative PAF suggested that addressing these factors collectively could reduce anaemia prevalence among mother-child dyads by 18% to 28% (under different scenarios) by 2030. The study underscores the need for comprehensive, multi-sectoral interventions targeting both maternal and child health to effectively combat anaemia in mother-child dyads.

Cooperation and the management of local common resources in remote rural communities

It is widely recognized that local management of common pool resources can be more efficient and more effective than private markets or top-down government management, especially in remote rural communities in which the institutions may be weak or prone to elite capture. In this paper, we explore the propensity for cooperation in the management of local common resources by introducing a variant of a public goods game among remote rural communities in the state of Odisha, in eastern India. We explore various patterns of cooperation, including free riding behaviour, unconditional cooperation and conditional cooperation, in which individuals’ propensity toward cooperation is tied to their beliefs about the level of cooperation among their peers. We find that a significant portion of our sample fall into this latter category, but also that their expectations about the level of contributions among their peers are somewhat malleable. JEL classification: Q32, Q12, C72

Representation increases women’s influence in climate deliberations: Evidence from community-managed forests in Malawi

Women’s inclusion is now the norm in global and local initiatives to combat climate change. We examine how women’s representation affects climate deliberations using the case of community-managed forests in Malawi. We run a lab-in-the-field experiment randomly varying the gender composition of six-member groups asked to deliberate on policies to combat local overharvesting. We find that any given woman has relatively more influence in group deliberations when women make up a larger share of the group, a change driven by men’s assessments of women’s influence. Women’s presence also shifts the content of deliberations toward prospective solutions for which women have socially recognized expertise (cooking and replanting). Despite these changes, women and men do not prefer different deforestation policies, and women’s presence does not meaningfully affect group decisions. Our work demonstrates how women’s presence shapes climate deliberations but also calls into question claims that women’s inclusion will necessarily affect climate decisions.

Rural land rental markets in developing countries: Can survey design innovations improve land market participation statistics?

A longstanding puzzle in the African land rental market literature is the often-observed discrepancy between the number of tenants (renters-in) and the much smaller number of landlords (renters-out) in survey data. If this discrepancy derives from systematic biases in survey data responses on rental market participation, then the existing body of survey-based empirical work on land rental markets impacts may be fundamentally flawed. To examine this issue, we implemented two survey experiments. First, we tested the hypothesis that some categories of rented land are underreported because enumerators and respondents focus primarily on parcels directly managed or cultivated by the household. A random subset of respondents received a priming nudge reminding them to account for all land, including rented- or sharecropped-in and rented- or sharecropped-out parcels. Second, we tested whether households underreport rented- or sharecropped-out land due to reluctance to disclose activities that may carry social or institutional repercussions, using a double-list experiment to infer true rates of participation. Interestingly, our results indicate a significant underreporting of both renting-in and renting-out land but arising through different mechanisms. The priming nudge increased reports of renting-/sharecropping-in by 4 percentage points (equivalent to 13% of landlords in the sample) but had negligible effects on reported renting-/sharecropping-out. By contrast, the list experiment suggests that the true share of renting-out households is about 15%: much higher than the 3% in parcel-roster responses. These results underscore the need for improved survey methods to accurately observe land rental market participation and evaluate its impact.

Innovation environment and entrepreneurial intentions among undergraduate students in Nigeria: The moderating role of entrepreneurial education

Basis risk, social comparison, perceptions of fairness, and demand for insurance: A field experiment in Ethiopia

Index insurance lowers agricultural risk but covers only covariate risks. Since farmers do not have complete insurance, they may develop mistrust of insurance when experiencing crop losses and not receiving payouts. Although recent innovations in remote sensing enable the provision of more complete insurance including coverage for idiosyncratic risks, such insurance introduces differences in payouts within social networks, which might be considered unfair, introduce jealousy, and depress insurance demand. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment with farmers in Ethiopia to examine whether providing complete insurance coverage affects perceived fairness and insurance demand. We also examine effects of informing farmers about neighbors’ payout experiences. We find that such social comparison increases perceived fairness of index insurance. Providing complete crop insurance increases perceived fairness of outcomes and willingness to pay for insurance, without introducing jealousy over neighbors receiving different payouts. These results are concentrated among men and those with little insurance knowledge.

Multi-stakeholder platforms for enabling agroecological transitions: Configurations and lessons from seven agroecological living landscapes

Agroecological transition (AET) of agrifood systems is a multidimensional process involving diverse stakeholders. Participatory innovation and co-creation of knowledge are also at the heart of agroecology. Deliberately designed Multi-stakeholder platforms (MSPs) are collaborative spaces conducive to driving this type of collaboration and change. However, how these processes are operationalized is poorly documented. This study contributes to filling this gap by highlighting how MSPs can be important vehicles for enabling AETs. As part of the CGIAR Initiative on Agroecology, Agroecological Living Landscapes (ALLs) were set up as MSPs specifically focusing on co-creation of agroecological innovations. By examining different ALL configurations in seven countries, we analyze MSP attributes that can enable and shape AETs at different stages or “levels” of the transition pathway. We find that MSPs can advance different levels of the transition pathway simultaneously by working on multiple innovations involving various stakeholder coalitions. MSPs navigate complex environments, with diverse stakeholders playing multiple policy and non-policy roles to support AETs. The results also illustrate the intersection between MSP configuration and AET objectives, such as policy change, agroecology market support, and scaling adoption. Finally, we discuss the non-linear nature of AET pathways and political economy considerations for stakeholder engagement in MSPs.

Buyers’ response to third-party quality certification: Theory and evidence from Ethiopian wheat traders

When quality attributes of a product are not directly observable, third-party certification (TPC) enables buyers to distinguish between quality levels and reward sellers accordingly. We study the adoption of TPC by traders in smallholder-based agricultural value chains in low-income countries, where traders aggregate products from many small-scale producers before selling in bulk to downstream processors. In this context, the introduction of TPC services has oftentimes failed. We develop a theoretical model identifying how different market conditions affect traders’ choice to purchase certified output from farmers. Next, using a novel lab-in-the-field experiment with Ethiopian wheat traders, we examine the model’s predictions. Traders’ willingness to specialize in certified output increases with the share of certified wheat in the market, and this effect is stronger in larger markets. However, we find that traders do not optimally respond to variation in the quality of uncertified wheat in the market. We also analyze conditions where traders deviate from optimal behavior and discuss implications for research and policy making to promote TPC in smallholder-based value-chains. JEL Codes: Q13; D22; O13; C93

Diet, fruit and vegetable intake, and nutritional status in Fiji: A scoping review

Increasing fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake is essential for transitioning toward healthier, more sustainable diets. To design effective intervention programmes to promote F&V intake, it is crucial to understand intake levels and dietary patterns across different demographic groups as well as populations’ nutritional status. We conducted a scoping review to summarise scientific evidence on the diet, F&V intake and nutritional status of the Fijian population. In January 2023, we searched PubMed for relevant literature. Studies were eligible if they were published in English since 2012 (for dietary intake and nutritional status) or since 2002 (for F&V) and met predefined inclusion criteria. We identified 163 articles reporting on diet, 47 on F&V intake and 95 on nutritional status. After further review and confirmation that articles met inclusion criteria, data were extracted from 16 articles on diet, 8 on F&V and 13 on nutritional status. The scoping review revealed a shift in Fiji from traditional foods to processed, unhealthy foods, high salt intake and poor dietary diversity. F&V intake was low, with only a quarter of adults and adolescents consuming the recommended daily servings. Approximately 7% of children under-five were stunted, and 8% were overweight. At least 25% of adolescents were overweight or obese, whereas 10% were underweight. Over 30% of adults were obese, and at least 25% were overweight. Overweight/obesity was higher in females and Indigenous Fijians; underweight higher among Indo-Fijian adolescents, especially males. Strengthening population-wide efforts to promote healthy lifestyles and dietary habits is crucial to address these issues.

Women’s dietary diversity and child feeding practices amidst COVID19 in India: Findings from National Family Health Surveys, 2016–2021

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a crisis that jeopardized food consumption and dietary diversity. This study aimed to: (1) investigate relationship between COVID-19 and women’s and children’s diets in India; (2) examine how this varies by socioeconomic status and mothers’ vegetarianism; and (3) assess whether mobility restrictions during India’s national lockdown influenced these dietary changes. The analysis drew on data from India’s National Family Health Survey 2015–16 and 2019–21, focusing on 11 states surveyed before and during COVID-19 (N = 567,727 women, 141,905 children). COVID-19 exposure was defined as interviews after 24 March 2020 (national lockdown). Outcomes included child feeding practices and women’s food consumption and dietary diversity. The impact of COVID-19 on diets was estimated using a difference-in-difference model; effect of mobility reduction on diets was examined using linear regression. All analyses were adjusted for confounders, interview month, state fixed effects, and sampling weights. Results showed that COVID-19 exposure was linked to significant declines in child feeding practices (−6.9 percentage points [pp] for minimum dietary diversity, −5.0 pp for minimum acceptable diet, and −6.1 pp for fruit consumption) and women’s diet (−5.7 pp for dietary diversity and green vegetable consumption). While magnitude of impact varied across socioeconomic sub-strata and mothers’ vegetarianism status, the differences were not statistically significant. The diets of women and children were greatly impacted by mobility reduction. COVID-19 has worsened the diets of women and children in India. More research is needed on the impact of relief measures to strengthen food safety nets nationwide.

The economic costs of bribes and road harassment by officials in ECOWAS

Information framing effects on diet choices among Chinese urban residents

Unhealthy diets have become a leading contributor to death and disability globally. The current Chinese diet falls short of a healthy diet, including too much meat, oil, salt, and sugar while having insufficient levels of whole grains, fruits, nuts, and milk. Transforming Chinese dietary patterns has become urgent. This paper compares the effectiveness of information framing effects on enhancing Chinese consumers’ healthy diet choices, varied by information content, source, and presentation. The survey is conducted across six Chinese cities, with a sample of 3150 urban consumers. Chinese consumers’ healthy diet choices are measured using an online discrete choice experiment. Four different diet patterns were used to label each of the product alternatives in the experiment, which varied in taste and cost. Results reveal that compared to positive information; negatively framed healthy information is more effective in increasing Chinese consumers’ valuations for healthy diets. Consumer valuation of a healthy whole diet is significantly enhanced when the information is from social celebrities, compared to information from a scientific source. Moreover, when health information is disclosed via social media, its effectiveness in promoting healthy diet choices is significantly reduced. Our findings have implications for designing and implementing nutrition policies and programs in China and other developing countries.

Dietary intake and nutrient adequacies among women of reproductive age in northern Tanzania: A cross-sectional study

Background Dietary inadequacies among women of reproductive age (WRA) increase malnutrition and disease risk. Objectives We characterized food group and nutrient inadequacies among WRA in rural Tanzania. Methods Baseline data (collected October 2023–January 2024) from a cluster-randomized controlled trial in Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions were analyzed. Dietary intake among WRA (n = 2594) was assessed using a 24-h dietary recall with the OpenDRS approach. This was repeated in a subsample (n = 520, 20%) to adjust for day-to-day variations in individual intake. The National Cancer Institute method was employed to estimate usual energy and nutrient intakes. Micronutrient adequacy was defined as intake greater than or equal to the harmonized average requirements (H-ARs). The mean probability of adequacy (MPA) was calculated as the average adequacy across 11 micronutrients. Results On average, women were 38.3 ± 6.2 y old; 19% were lactating, and 4% were pregnant. The mean daily energy intake was 2415 kcal/d [95% confidence interval (CI): 1937, 2895], with carbohydrates contributing 62% to daily energy intake. The mean intake of fruit and vegetables (F&V) was 279 g/d (95% CI: 201, 365), of which fruit was 35 g/d (95% CI: 2, 118) and vegetables 245 g/d (95% CI: 168, 328). Staples contributed half of the daily energy intake. About 1% of participants met calcium and vitamin B12 requirements, whereas 42%, 49%, 68%, and 72% met adequacy for vitamin C, folate, zinc, and iron, respectively. Most women met the H-ARs for riboflavin, niacin, thiamine, vitamin B6, and vitamin A. MPA was 65 (±2.3% standard error), with vegetables, pulses, animal-source foods (ASF), and staples being key micronutrient sources. Conclusions Substantial nutrient inadequacies exist among WRA in rural Northern Tanzania due to high cereal intake and low intake of F&V and ASF. Addressing these gaps requires targeted interventions, improved dietary diversity, increased intake of F&V and ASF, and enhanced food security through local production and social safety nets.

Effect of combining lower- and higher-value monthly cash transfers with nutrition-sensitive agriculture, male engagement and psychosocial intervention on maternal depressive symptoms in rural Malawi: A secondary analysis of a cluster-randomised controlled trial

Maternal depression affects one in five women in Malawi. Integrated interventions simultaneously addressing multiple risks are a promising strategy to improve mental health. This study evaluated the impact of a nutrition-sensitive social behaviour change (SBC) intervention (agriculture and livelihoods, male engagement and Caring for the Caregiver) with or without cash transfers on maternal perinatal depression during the lean season in rural Malawi. A midline survey for a cluster-randomised controlled trial was conducted, where 156 clusters were randomly assigned to four arms (39 clusters/arm): (1) standard of care (SoC), (2) SBC, (3) SBC+low cash (US$17 per month) and (4) SBC+high cash (US$43 per month). Pregnant women and mothers of children <2 years of age (n=2677) were enrolled at baseline (May–June 2022). A subsample of 1303 women was followed-up at midline (November–December 2023). Maternal perinatal depression was assessed using the Self-Reporting Questionnaire with a score of ≥8 indicating symptoms consistent with depression. Intervention effects were estimated using linear mixed effects models. At midline, SBC+high cash reduced depression scores relative to SoC (mean difference −1.13 (95% CI −1.96 to –0.31)) but had no impact on the proportion of women with depressive symptoms. Relative to SoC, SBC+low cash and SBC alone had no impact on depression scores or the proportion of women with depressive symptoms. Relative to SBC alone, adding cash to SBC reduced depression scores and the proportion of women with depressive symptoms regardless of the size of the cash transfer. Cash transfers integrated with SBC can benefit maternal perinatal mental health in rural Malawi during the lean season.

Digital health interventions in strengthening primary healthcare systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from Ethiopia, Ghana, and Zimbabwe

Digital Health Interventions (DHIs) refer to discrete technological functionalities designed to achieve specific objectives in addressing health system challenges. These interventions are considered tools for strengthening health systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study consolidates findings from Ethiopia, Ghana, and Zimbabwe, examining how three distinct digital health applications with varying intervention components implemented in primary healthcare settings contribute to health system strengthening. The interventions analyzed include Ethiopia’s District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2), Ghana’s District Health Information Management System (DHIMS) and the Lightwave Health Information Management System (LHIMS), and Zimbabwe’s Impilo Electronic Health Record (E-HR) system. In Ethiopia, DHIS2 enhanced health system accountability and data quality by streamlining district-level data aggregation, reporting, and performance monitoring. This led to more informed decision-making and improved resource distribution. In Ghana, DHIMSs functions as a public health-level DHI, facilitating national data-driven performance monitoring, while LHIMS operates at the patient level, supporting patient tracking and management, improving patient workflows and resource tracking. However, a lack of interoperability between these two systems has led to data duplication challenges. Zimbabwe’s Impilo E-HR, a patient-level DHI, has streamlined clinical workflows, improved information sharing, and enhanced decision-making at the point of care. Despite these successes, challenges persist across the three contexts: infrastructure limitations, high staff turnover, and insufficient user technical capacity. Interoperability issues, particularly in Ghana and Ethiopia, hinder seamless data exchange, while sustainability concerns such as funding gaps and inadequate government support undermine the systems’ full potential. The study findings demonstrate that investments in DHIs in primary healthcare may not result in health systems strengthening without addressing baseline conditions for their implementation and sustainability.

The effect of using indigenous and scientific forecasts on arable farmers’ crop yields: Evidence from Rwenzori region, western Uganda

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2025?

The ongoing conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has triggered severe economic contractions, exacerbating poverty and unemployment while disrupting key sectors of the economy. This study employs an updated economywide database to assess the economic impact of a continued conflict through the end of 2025 under two scenarios of extreme and moderate contractions in the overall GDP. Our findings indicate that by the end of 2025, Sudan’s GDP would decline by 42% under the extreme scenario and 32% under the moderate scenario. The agrifood system would be particularly affected, with its GDP contracting by 33.6% and employment halving under the extreme scenario. Household incomes decline across all quintiles, with rural populations and women experiencing the sharpest losses. The national poverty rate is projected to rise by 19 percentage points under the extreme scenario, further deepening socioeconomic vulnerabilities. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, support the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation.

Exploring relationship pathways to prevent intimate partner violence among young women in Malawi

International estimates of intimate partner violence (IPV) among adolescents and young women are high, indicating the need to address IPV prevention early in life. Structural economic interventions, such as household cash transfer programmes, have the potential to improve the wellbeing of youth who are not the direct recipients of the transfers themselves. However, few studies have addressed this topic in terms of youth romantic and/or sexual relationships. We conducted 39 in-depth interviews with young women aged 19-29 years in households participating in the Government of Malawi’s Social Cash Transfer Programme (SCTP) to examine relationship formation, IPV triggers and experiences, and help-seeking behaviours. We found that young women did not directly attribute SCTP effects to their intimate relationships or IPV experiences. Threats to masculinity and transgressions of women’s gender norms were key triggers of IPV, but specific triggers were linked to specific types of IPV. Furthermore, women sought help for non-IPV concerns more than IPV-related issues. Our results reveal there is a need to strengthen cash transfer programmes and layer them with tailored interventions for adolescents and young women in participant households to improve relationships and prevent IPV early in life.

Modeling crop-livestock interactions in semi-subsistence economies

Climate and weather shocks pose significant threats to crop and livestock systems, leading to economic losses and humanitarian crises. Utilizing a modeling framework that innovatively integrates the crop and livestock production systems in semi-subsistence economies, this study examines the interactions and dynamic adjustments within these systems following weather shocks, using Ethiopia as a case study. We also evaluate the effectiveness of various adaptation strategies in sustaining farm incomes, food security, and welfare. Results show unique effects on the crop and livestock sectors resulting from a joint shock on the two systems. While food crops experience a strong and immediate growth effect (12.4%) that fades quickly, the livestock sector faces the full impact of the shock a year later (13.7%), with the effect persisting to some degree. We also find diverging economic and livestock system adjustment trajectories from separate shocks to the crop and livestock systems. Further, the intervention options analyzed show contrasting impacts on various outcome indicators, with only the resilient crop intervention causing sector-indifferent impacts. Our findings emphasize the importance of proactive measures to enhance the resilience of crop-livestock systems, with implications for policy and practice aimed at safeguarding food security and livelihoods in semi-subsistence economies. JEL Classification: C68, Q18, Q54, I32, O55

Rural labor supply and recall window sensitivity

Lack of availability of administrative records on informal and seasonal labor participation dictates reliance on self-reported measures in many rural settings in developing countries. A common survey approach relies on annual recall to capture labor activities. Using a panel of rural households in Malawi, this study conducts a survey experiment to test the effect of annual recall on reported labor supply relative to quarterly interviews using ninety-day recall windows. Annual recall reduces reported labor participation and months worked by 20 percent. These reductions are greater for activities further in the past and when labor supply is reported by proxy. The profile of households’ primary respondents, predominantly male and older, can induce meaningful biases against women and youth. The study additionally shows that recall window choice can significantly alter estimates of the relationship between labor supply and education. These findings are especially relevant for impact evaluations and studies with constrained sample sizes.

Associations between exposure to nutrition, WASH interventions and children’s academic performance in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Poor nutrition and inadequate WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene) practices significantly impact children’s health, nutrition, and cognitive development, especially in low-income settings. These factors further aggravate the incidence of undernutrition, weaken the immune system, increase susceptibility to illnesses and reduce cognitive performance. Evidence on the effectiveness of existing WASH interventions is needed. Objective This review evaluated the effectiveness of nutritional and WASH interventions on the academic performance of children in Ethiopia. Methods A systematic search of Cochrane, DOAJ, Google Scholar, and PubMed (2010–2024) was conducted using MeSH terms and keywords related to WASH. Two independent reviewers screened studies and extracted data. Eligible studies included cross-sectional and cohort studies on Ethiopian schoolchildren with quantifiable academic outcomes. The JBI SUMARI was used to assess bias, and the GRADE approach was used to evaluate evidence quality. The meta-analysis used a random-effects model in Stata and reported pooled RRs with 95% CIs. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses examined moderators such as study design, intervention type, and sample size. Results A total of 19 studies, 16 cross-sectional (n= 16) and three prospective (n= 3) cohort studies with a total of 9034 participants, were included. The random effects model revealed a significant improvement in academic performance among students receiving both nutrition and WASH, with a pooled large positive effect size of 2.05 (95% CI: 1.26, 2.28; I2=). In the subgroup meta-analysis, the effect of the intervention was more positive among those who skipped breakfast (3.47, 95% CI: 0.47, 6.47), chronic iodine deficiency (4.49, 95% CI: 4.08, 4.90), food insecurity (2.810, 95% CI: 1.281, 4.339), and underweight (0.61, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.75). Conclusion Despite moderate variability and some risk of bias, the evidence supports the integration of comprehensive nutrition and WASH programs into school health initiatives. Future research should focus on long-term effects and cost-effectiveness.

Understanding social safety nets and intra-household food allocation: Experimental evidence from Bangladesh

Evidence shows that social protection can improve diets, but little is known about how impacts vary within households, the extent to which the modality of the transfer affects how it is distributed across all household members, whether adding training on the importance of nutrition and diets alters the way transfer resources are allocated within the household, relative to a transfer alone, and if differences in allocations are shaped by differences in livelihood opportunities. We use individual food intake data from two randomized control trials fielded in rural Bangladesh to address these questions. Our results overwhelmingly demonstrate that food gains are distributed equally, regardless of the type of transfers households received (cash, food, or combination), inclusion of nutrition training, regional context, or specific dietary outcome measured. These patterns of findings hold when we consider several extensions: (1) analyzing more aggregated demographic groups; (2) considering alternative measures of diet; (3) analyzing shares rather than levels; (4) considering impacts relative to deprivation at baseline; (5) analyzing impacts on non-food outcomes that can be assigned demographically; (6) re-estimating impacts using alternate samples and alternate estimation models. Where the few significant differences are found, they are often small in magnitude and in favor of children.

Vouchers to increase fruit affordability in Nigeria and Vietnam

Although fruits are an important part of healthy diets, they are relatively expensive, so most individuals consume less than recommended. We use a randomized control trial to study a voucher program designed to improve the affordability of fruits in peri-urban and urban settings in Vietnam and Nigeria, and analyze whether vouchers can increase fruit consumption. The trial took place in 2021 among 601 households in Vietnam and 611 households in Nigeria. Vouchers were distributed between March and July in Vietnam and between June and November in Nigeria. In both contexts, a large majority of consumers who received vouchers used them. Following project conclusion, we find suggestive evidence of sustained increased fruit consumption only in Vietnam. In Nigeria, vouchers increased consumption of certain fruit categories during program implementation, but we find no evidence of sustained impacts. Fruit consumption is higher across the board in Vietnam, and the sample is wealthier overall, suggesting fruit affordability may not be a binding constraint for consumption. In Nigeria, the increase in consumption during the program along with a post-project decline suggest a lack of household resources to sustain consumption once the project concluded. The results suggest vouchers can improve consumption of healthy foods like fruits, but other actions are needed to make them more affordable in the longer term.

Armed conflict and climate-induced weather disruptions in agricultural input use: Evidence From Ethiopia

Estimating cumulative input effects in annual crop production: A LASSO-based panel data approach from India

Unpacking the effects of conflict on fertilizer use and maize yields: Empirical evidence From Nigeria

Conventional recommendations emphasize increasing the use of inorganic fertilizer to enhance maize yields in African countries south of the Sahara, but it is not clear how smallholders’ exposure to violent conflicts affect demand, yield responses, and the profitability of fertilizers. Our study tackles this question. We analyze how maize yield responds to fertilizer use and assess the profitability of fertilizer use in conflict-affected settings. We then investigate how conflict impacts the profitability of fertilizer, given that armed conflicts are likely to increase input costs, logistical difficulties, and market uncertainties. Our study reveals that yield responses to nitrogen are very low in Nigeria. We also show that exposure to conflict reduces input use rates and decreases the marginal physical productivity of nitrogen in maize production, making investment in fertilizer less profitable. Recognizing this effect of conflict on input use and maize yield response is crucial for targeting and resource allocation decisions among smallholders in similar conflict-affected regions. Moreover, the effect of conflict highlights how external factors, beyond the scope of agronomic practices, influence the economic incentives for fertilizer application and the resulting yield outcomes.

Impact of custom hiring services on paddy cultivation: A propensity score matching approach

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

Recent global shocks have triggered sharp spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, raising concerns about their domestic impacts. This study examines the extent to which international price levels and volatility are transmitted to domestic food and fertilizer markets in seven Central American countries. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2024. While results vary by country and commodity, we find overall low to moderate elasticities of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission in the very short term (1-month). Interestingly, price transmission tends to strengthen after 3 months, whereas volatility transmission is more short-lived and appears to dissipate. The co-movement between international and domestic prices shows no apparent trend over time and lacks consistency across countries and commodities following major global events. Back-of-the-envelope simulations of higher international food and fertilizer prices suggest modest, though non-negligible, impacts on local consumer and producer welfare. JEL Classification: Q02, Q11, C32

Consequences of increased farm resilience on food security in Tajikistan

Unprecedented climate change, socio-economic shocks, and political conflict exacerbate food insecurity. Worsened conditions and increased vulnerability now give prominence to improving farm resilience to withstand shocks. This article aims to analyse the effect of farm resilience on food security outcomes in Tajikistan. Using panel data collected in 12 districts in the Khatlon Province of Tajikistan from 2015 to 2023, the study has the following. (a) measure farm resilience determinants (pillars) through adaptive capacity, transformation capacity, and robustness; (b) estimate the relationship between resilience pillars and food security outcomes; (c) cluster farm households based on the level of resilience pillars; and (d) estimate the effect of farm resilience on food security outcomes. The study first measures farm resilience pillars using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Next, Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) is used to classify farm households into three resilience categories: “Low Resilience”, “Medium Resilience”, and “High Resilience”. The estimation strategy involves making causal claims using LPA and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) techniques. Our results suggest a positive relationship between farm resilience and food security outcomes. Our findings also confirm that “High Resilience” and “Medium Resilience” profiles experience better dietary diversity, higher fruit and vegetable consumption, or decreased household hunger, compared to the “Low Resilience” profile. Such a positive relationship underlines the importance of strengthening farm resilience. Further development agendas for Tajikistan should consider resilience thinking, especially in shock-prone zones. Objectives: (a) measure farm resilience determinants (pillars) through adaptive capacity, transformation capacity, and robustness; (b) estimate the relationship between resilience pillars and food security outcomes; (c) cluster farm households based on the level of resilience pillars; and (d) estimate the effect of farm resilience on food security outcomes. The study first measures farm resilience pillars using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Next, Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) is used to classify farm households into three resilience categories: “Low Resilience”, “Medium Resilience”, and “High Resilience”. The estimation strategy involves making causal claims using LPA and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) techniques. Our results suggest a positive relationship between farm resilience and food security outcomes. Our findings also confirm that “High Resilience” and “Medium Resilience” profiles experience better dietary diversity, higher fruit and vegetable consumption, or decreased household hunger, compared to the “Low Resilience” profile. Such a positive relationship underlines the importance of strengthening farm resilience. Further development agendas for Tajikistan should consider resilience thinking, especially in shock-prone zones.

An evolving landscape for nexus governance in transboundary basins: Recognizing and harnessing the growing role of multistakeholder platforms

Repairing the mosaic: The political economy of landscape-level agroecological transitions in India

Assessing the development impacts of bio-innovations: The case of genetically modified maize and cassava in Tanzania

Youth in relation to agroecology: practices, promises, and perceptions in five countries

In the context of rising youth populations in many low- and middle-income countries, coupled with high youth unemployment and aging farmer populations, this paper asks in what ways agroecology, as a sustainable alternative to the conventional agricultural practices and paradigm, attracts youth to farming and rural-based livelihoods. We draw on empirical data from semi-structured interviews and photovoice conducted with young women and men in five countries: Kenya, India, Peru, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe. In our discussion, we highlight which dimensions and aspects of agroecology resonate with youth and why.

Green innovations are the best policy option for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems

Evaluating large-scale government investments in fertilizer adoption: The Ethiopian experience

We evaluate the impact of a large Government of Ethiopia intervention to raise fertilizer supply by establishing five fertilizer blending facilities supplying fertilizers tailored to local soil nutrient profiles. We rely on the phased geographic rollout of blending facility establishment to identify the causal effect on fertilizer use, application rates, crop yields, gross crop revenue, and household consumption. Combining effects of multiple treatment periods, each estimated using a doubly robust difference-in-difference model, we find that the blending facilities increased the probability that farmers adopt the new blended fertilizers by 22 percentage points and increased application rates by 17 kg/ha (baseline adoption was zero). The facilities mostly induced farmers who previously used DAP to switch to NPS, and we find large decreases in DAP adoption (by 22 percentage points, 47% of the control group base mean) and application rates (16 kg/ha, 52% of the control group base mean) yet no impact on overall fertilizer adoption or application rates. Though the new blended fertilizers were expected to perform better, there is no evidence they improved crop yields, crop gross revenue, or household consumption. The effect of the intervention was more pronounced (with larger increases in NPS use and larger decreases in DAP use) for farms located near demonstration plots, which the Government used to train farmers about the agronomic response to the new fertilizers. We confirm results using three large-scale longitudinal datasets and show that they are robust to choices of specification, treatment definition, and inference assumptions. JEL classification: O12, O13, Q16, Q18

Understanding the evidence gaps: Diets and fruit and vegetable intake across five diverse low- and middle-income countries

Poor dietary quality, particularly inadequate fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake, remains a significant public health challenge globally. This article synthesizes findings from scoping reviews examining diet and F&V intake, and interventions to increase F&V consumption among population groups in five countries: Benin, Fiji, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Tanzania. Our analysis confirms previous findings of inadequate F&V intake across all five countries, with most adults consuming well below the WHO recommendations of 400 g per day. Across the five countries, the identified scientific evidence is limited due to heterogeneous dietary assessment methods, limited coverage of population groups in national surveys and smaller studies, and limited data from rigorous evaluations of interventions aiming to increase F&V intake. Although all five countries have developed food-based dietary guidelines promoting F&V intake, research on their implementation and effectiveness remains limited. To build evidence for effective programmes and policies to improve both quantity and diversity of F&V intake, we identify three priority areas for future research: standardizing dietary assessment methods for use in surveys and evaluations, understanding context-specific drivers and determinants of F&V intake and strengthening intervention research in low-resource settings.

Trade‐off between accuracy and cognitive burden: Influence of stated attribute non‐attendance questions on participants’ choice behaviors

ABSTRACT

Effects of home production for home consumption on semi-subsistence economies