Forbes Middle East interviewed Joseph Glauber, IFPRI Research Fellow Emeritus, for an article analyzing the current situation with reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and what is needed for the fertilizer trade to regain its normal flow. Glauber noted that “restoring the fertilizer trade to its pre-war levels could take several months.” He also explained that “while urea prices outside the European Union (EU) have returned to pre-war levels, demand is projected to rise in the autumn as producers in the Southern Hemisphere begin purchasing for the agricultural season. Conversely, phosphate prices remain roughly 20% to 25% higher than pre-war levels, with expectations that they will stay elevated throughout 2026.”
According to Glauber, “over the next six to twelve months, the primary risk remains tied to energy prices, which could drive production and food costs even higher by fueling inflationary pressures across the global economy. Consequently, despite the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the fertilizer market continues to face supply and pricing challenges, keeping anxieties over agricultural production costs high for the months ahead.”