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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Elodie Becquey

Elodie Becquey is a Senior Research Fellow in the Nutrition, Diets, and Health Unit, based in IFPRI’s West and Central Africa office in Senegal. She has over 15 years of research experience in diet, nutrition, and food security in Africa, including countries such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, and Tanzania.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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Timothy Thomas

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

Tim Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. This work has expanded recently to include evaluating the fuller impact of climate change by accounting for uncertainty and interannual variability, especially in regard to extreme events and low-productivity years. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures; generating crop yield emulators to provide intuition and to speed simulations; and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics. Tim has also worked in a variety of domains developing innovative methods such as spatial disaggregation (applied to gridded agricultural GDP in Brazil); determining optimal cropland level subnationally (for Ethiopia); and together with other researchers, investigating the impact of climate change on aflatoxins.

Publications

Publications

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Brief

Harvesting change: The impact of climate change on Africa’s agriFood systems

2025Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; McNamara, Brian; Thomas, Timothy S.; Traoré, Fousseini
Details

Harvesting change: The impact of climate change on Africa’s agriFood systems

Africa is one of the most exposed continents to climate change. While global temperature has risen by 0.2°C per decade since 1991, in Africa the rate is faster, reaching 0.3°C (WMO 2022). Yet Africa contributes only modestly to climate change. Indeed, the continent emits 7 times less greenhouse gas compared to Europe and 15 times compared to North America (IPCC, 2023). In addition to rising temperatures, climate change affects Africa through several channels, including an increase in ocean levels, variations in precipitations (droughts and heavy rains), plant pests and animal diseases. Climate change is also expected to contribute to a significant reduction in arable land in the continent (IPCC, 2023). The new CAADP strategy and action plan for 2026-2035 recognizes that Africa is the hardest hit by climate change and that the phenomenon is one of the major threats to Africa’s agricultural systems and food security in the coming years. All of these changes will affect agricultural production, a major challenge for Africa, as African economies and livelihoods remain heavily dependent on agriculture. Agriculture still represents 16% of Africa GDP with contributions ranging from 3% in Southern Africa to 25% in the eastern part of the continent. Due to the low level of labor productivity in agriculture, the sector’s contributions to total employment are higher than those of other sectors. By inducing structural changes in agricultural production, climate change will also affect trade flows by shifting comparative advantages between and within continents. Prices will also be affected. This Policy Brief i shows how Africa’s agricultural production and trade patterns are altered by climate change. It highlights the large impacts of climate change on agricultural production, reinforcing results from other work. It shows that the impacts on prices compound the production impacts on African economies and people given many countries in the region are net importers. However, the work also shows that there are substantial differences across the region in the size of the impacts.

Year published

2025

Authors

Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; McNamara, Brian; Thomas, Timothy S.; Traoré, Fousseini

Citation

Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; McNamara, Brian; Thomas, Timothy S.; and Traoré, Fousseini. 2025. Harvesting change: The impact of climate change on Africa’s agriFood systems. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178415

Keywords

Africa; Climate Change; Impact Assessment; Agrifood Systems; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Modelling

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

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Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa?

2025Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie; Hartley, Faaiqa; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Gabriel, Sherwin
Details

What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa?

Food demand in East and southern Africa (ESA) is expected to be three to nine times higher by 2050 (relative to 2010), depending on the emerging economic and demographic trends. To meet demand, agrifood systems (AFS) in the region must expand and diversify. Consumption demand for meats and fruits and vegetables will more than triple by 2050, creating economic opportunities but also inclusivity challenges. Transformations in AFS must increase the sector’s resilience to supply-side shocks that threaten food security and nutrition. Favorable policies and investments that are country-specific, inclusive, and sustainable will be powerful tools to shape and influence AFS’s transition in the region.

Year published

2025

Authors

Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie; Hartley, Faaiqa; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Gabriel, Sherwin

Citation

Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie; Hartley, Faaiqa; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; and Gabriel, Sherwin. 2025. What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Two: What Do We Know About the Future of Food System in Selected Regions? Chapter 18, Pp. 103-108. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175455

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Southern Africa; Food Systems; Agrobiodiversity; Demand; Supply Balance; Food Security; Agricultural Production; Income Distribution; Nutrition; Trade

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Resource thumbnail

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food systems in relation to climate change?

2025Thomas, Timothy S.; Mukherji, Aditi
Details

What do we know about the future of food systems in relation to climate change?

Climate change poses major challenges to agriculture and food systems, but the latest foresight modeling suggests impacts may be more nuanced than previously thought. For example, economic feedback mechanisms affect global average impacts of climate change on yields and important differences arise between the various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios and climate models. More importantly, global averages mask wide diversity in impacts across geographies, commodities, and people’s ability to adapt. In addition to long-term impacts of changes in global averages, increasing climate variability is likely to lead to a higher frequency of production shocks from adverse climate events. Climate change is expected to lower GDP and therefore increase the number of food-insecure households and increase poverty. It may also slow growth of agricultural productivity, adversely impacting rural households. Agriculture and food systems (including diets, energy use, and land use change) play a key role in global emissions and strategies to reach net zero, but these strategies are at cross purposes with meeting food needs under climate change and rising demand for food globally. Foresight modeling can help decision-makers evaluate these trade-offs and ameliorate particularly adverse impacts.

Year published

2025

Authors

Thomas, Timothy S.; Mukherji, Aditi

Citation

Thomas, Timothy S.; and Mukherji, Aditi. 2025. What do we know about the future of food systems in relation to climate change? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 6, Pp. 34-40. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175228

Keywords

Food Systems; Climate; Climate Change; Climate Models; Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Yield Factors; Extreme Weather Events; Poverty; Resilience

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Blogs

For climate change, the American farmer is the sleeping giant
IFPRI Blog
 | 
September 07, 2017

For climate change, the American farmer is the sleeping giant

By Timothy Thomas

U.S. corn farmers have largely avoided rising temperatures during growing seasons. What happens when climate change kicks in?

Heat dome to do approximately $2 billion in damage to U.S. corn
IFPRI Blog
 | 
July 27, 2016

Heat dome to do approximately $2 billion in damage to U.S. corn

By Timothy Thomas

An IFPRI researcher's estimate shows just a few days of widespread high temperatures will end up harming U.S. corn yields

Do economic predictions of damage from climate change cause policymakers to focus on the wrong thing?
IFPRI Research Blog
 | 
December 01, 2015

Do economic predictions of damage from climate change cause policymakers to focus on the wrong thing?

By Timothy Thomas

Do economic predictions of damage from climate change cause policymakers to focus on the wrong thing?

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Events

The Impact of Global Change on Food Security in 2050: Assessing the Risks Through the Lens of Food Trade
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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November 19, 2025, 9:30 – 11:00 am

The Impact of Global Change on Food Security in 2050: Assessing the Risks Through the Lens of Food Trade

Trade is crucial to achieving food security. The Jameel Index for Food Trade and Vulnerability (Jameel Index) is a valuable new tool to guide policy and investment decisions that support sustainable international development and food security through food trade. The Index provides food trade vulnerability scores for more than 180 countries by synthesizing global indicators […]

Informing Economic Growth and Food Security Opportunities in Papua New Guinea
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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March 21, 2025, 9:00 – 5:30 pm

Informing Economic Growth and Food Security Opportunities in Papua New Guinea

The International Food Policy Research Institute, in collaboration with Department of Prime Minister and National Executive Council, Department of Agriculture and Livestock, Department of Health and the Department of National Planning and Monitoring, will host a research seminar on “Informing Economic Growth and Food Security Opportunities in Papua New Guinea”, on March 21st, 2025. As […]

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

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August 2 to 7, 2024

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists

The triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE-2024), centred on the theme “Transformation Towards Sustainable Agri-Food Systems” is scheduled from August 2-7, 2024, in New Delhi, India. The conference offers a distinctive platform, providing a golden opportunity for the agricultural academic institutions and researchers to convene in person, exchange knowledge, and actively contribute to the […]

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