Locus of control, climate change adaptation and perception: Evidence from rural Ethiopia

Despite an overwhelming scientific consensus about the adverse effects of climate change and potential adaptation strategies, the uptake rates of climate adaptation practices fall short of expectations and public perceptions about the drivers and implications of climate change remain mixed. This paper examines whether farmers’ psychological traits, particularly locus of control, predict climate adaptation strategies. We focus on adoption of drought-tolerant varieties, fast-maturing varieties, early/late planting varieties, crop diversification, conservation agriculture, and water harvesting technologies using a large household survey from Ethiopia. We also explore climate change perceptions, and whether and how they align with actual climatic records. We find that farmers with a higher degree of internal locus of control are more likely to adopt various climate adaptation practices and are more likely to perceive changes in mean precipitation and temperature, while those with a higher level of external locus of control are less likely to perceive climate change and hence less likely to adopt climate-resilient practices. One standard deviation increase in internal (external) locus of control is associated with 3–5 percentage points higher (lower) probability of adopting alternative climate adaptation practices. We also find suggestive evidence that farmers’ climate adaptation responses are consistent with their climate perceptions and actual climatic records. These findings highlight the important role of behavioral attributes, including psychological traits, in explaining climate perceptions and subsequent climate actions.

Mapping supply chains, cost structure analysis, and investment priorities for food system transformation under conflict and climate stress in northern Nigeria

Integrated hydrological and economic assessment of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change

Demands for water, energy, and food are rapidly increasing in many low- and middle-income countries, driving the development of large-scale hydropower and irrigation projects. As climate change poses major risks and uncertainties for large-scale infrastructure investments, it is essential to stress-test infrastructure development plans to address these challenges and strengthen resilience. The Nile is one of the world’s longest rivers, draining approximately 10% of Africa’s land surface; Sudan accounts for around 40% of the basin area, and several new large hydropower and irrigation infrastructure projects are planned. We develop an integrated analytical framework for the Nile River system, utilizing 16 climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 6 and hydrological, river system, and Computable General Equilibrium models to evaluate the biophysical and economic impacts of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change. The results indicate a projected increase in the naturalized streamflow of the Nile by 2050 due to climate change. A phased hydropower and irrigation development strategy in Sudan – targeting a total of 1,500 MW of hydropower capacity and approximately one million hectares of irrigated wheat – is projected to increase annual hydropower generation by up to 8.1 TWh and expand total wheat area by 283% by 2050. These developments increase the undiscounted national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during 2030–2050 by US$ 0.1 to 0.4 billion per year, with larger increases occurring under high economic growth pathways. This research highlights the interconnected nature of climate change, water resource development, and economic performance, underscoring the importance of integrated assessment in informing investment decisions.