West Africa faces mixed food security impacts from the Russia-Ukraine conflict (Telos)

Telos (France) published an op-ed by senior research fellows Antoine Bouet and David Laborde, and research fellow Fousseini Traoré about how food security in West Africa has been deteriorating since 2015.  Now, like the rest of the world, the region faces rapidly growing impacts from Russia’s war in Ukraine, including spiking food prices and disruptions in markets for cereals and other commodities, including fertilizers and fuels. What are some of the war’s likely effects on West Africa? The good news for West Africa is that it trades little with Russia and Ukraine, except for Benin’s exports to Ukraine (4.7 percent of its total exports) and Benin and Senegal’s imports from Russia (between 4 and 5 percent of total imports, respectively). In terms of food security, the caloric contribution of these trade relationships is relatively small. Most of the calories consumed in the region come from local production, Europe, and Asia. Ukraine and Russia are significant suppliers of calories to West Africans only through trade in wheat (1.7 percent of total calories consumed). Ukraine’s contribution is marginal, Russia’s is more important. Difficulties arise for other types of fertilizers. West Africa imports 82 percent of its potassium consumption, and for Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Sierra Leone, the vast majority of imports—80 percent—come from Belarus and Russia. The economic fallout from regional tensions in West Africa and the Russia-Ukraine situation illustrates the dangerous links between diplomatic sanctions, trade, and food security.  The current situation presents a challenge for ECOWAS, which should refrain from taking measures that could worsen regional food security.