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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Lilia Bliznashka

Lily Bliznashka is a Research Fellow in the Nutrition, Diets, and Health Unit. Her research focuses on assessing the effectiveness of multi-input nutrition-sensitive and nutrition-specific interventions and the mechanisms through which they work to improve maternal and child health and nutrition globally. She has worked in Burkina Faso, Burundi, Tanzania, and Uganda.

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Foresight and Policy Modeling

Barun Deb Pal

Research Coordinator

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Bio

Barun Pal is a Research Coordinator in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit working on various current research issues relevant to agricultural sector development in South Asia, with special focus on India. He studies the impact of climate-smart agriculture on future GHG emissions from the agriculture sector in India, the impact of an integrated watershed management program in Maharashtra, doubling farmer’s income in Karnataka, and the land use modeling activities of IFPRI. He has more than 10 years of research experience on climate change and economic growth, and climate-smart agriculture prioritization. Through his involvement in academic and policy research, he has gained expertise in computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, macroeconomic modeling using input-output economics and social accounting methods, and land use planning models in linear and nonlinear frameworks. Prior to joining IFPRI as a Project Manager, he worked in various capacities including assisting IFPRI and CGIAR’s CCAFS research team to implement the ongoing research program on climate-smart agriculture in Indian states, including Bihar, Punjab, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh. He started his career with the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), New Delhi, India.

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Publications

Publications

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Brief

The energy sector in Nepal: Economic potential and financial challenges of renewable energy transition

2026Khan, Zaky; Kafle, Shakshyam; Sapkota, Anjali; Ajmani, Manmeet Singh; Pal, Barun Deb
Details

The energy sector in Nepal: Economic potential and financial challenges of renewable energy transition

Nepal’s commitment to harness its vast renewable potential under the Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) presents a transformative opportunity with economic and environmental benefits. It aims to capitalize on domestic hydropower and solar potential to ensure energy security, achieve higher economic growth, and reduce reliance on traditional biomass and petroleum imports. In this brief, we utilize IFPRI’s dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to the 2022 Nepal’s Social Accounting Matrix to measure the economic benefits of achieving the NDC 3.0 electricity capacity targets through a diversified renewable mix. Two scenarios were analyzed: a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario and an ambitious renewable expansion scenario aligned with NDC 3.0 goals but with accelerated emphasis on solar power, modeled at 15,000 MW from solar and other renewables, with the remainder from hydroelectricity. Integrating solar with hydropower emerges as a highly promising scenario for Nepal’s energy landscape, leveraging the country’s vast solar potential while building resilience against climate-related risks to hydroelectricity. This integrated approach represents a strategic and effective pathway toward achieving Net-zero. Model results indicate that such renewable transition generates substantial macroeconomic and welfare benefits. Achieving the NDC 3.0 aligned targets would expand the Nepal’s economy by 2.2% by 2035 over the BAU scenario, generating over 82,000 new jobs, and lifting more than 36,000 people from poverty. Although renewable energy transition presents a huge economic opportunity, its benefits hinges on the country’s ability to secure financing, implement policy reforms, and ensure equitable distribution. Without strategic financial planning and coordinated policy reforms, Nepal risks replacing existing energy dependencies with new vulnerabilities even as it pursues long-term sustainability.

Year published

2026

Authors

Khan, Zaky; Kafle, Shakshyam; Sapkota, Anjali; Ajmani, Manmeet Singh; Pal, Barun Deb

Citation

Khan, Zaky, Kafle, Shakshyam, Sapkota, Anjali; Ajmani, Manmeet Singh; and Pal, Barun Deb. 2026. The energy sector in Nepal: Economic potential and financial challenges of renewable energy transition. IIDS Policy Brief. Kathmandu, Nepal: Institute for Integrated Development Studies. https://iids.org.np/portfolio/the-energy-sector-in-nepal-economic-potential-and-financial-challenges-of-renewable-energy-transition/

Country/Region

Nepal

Keywords

Southern Asia; Renewable Energy; Finance; Climate Change Adaptation; Computable General Equilibrium Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

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Brief

Agriculture in Nepal’s NDC 3.0: Economy-wide impacts on Nepal’s economy

2026Marharajan, Nanda Kumar; Kafle, Aakriti; Pal, Barun Deb; Ajmani, Manmeet Singh
Details

Agriculture in Nepal’s NDC 3.0: Economy-wide impacts on Nepal’s economy

Nepal’s agriculture sector, central to food security, and rural employment and livelihoods faces mounting pressures from climate change, land degradation, and declining productivity. The Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) introduces a set of targeted agricultural interventions designed to enhance climate resilience while improving productivity and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This policy brief assesses the economy-wide implications of achieving these agricultural targets using IFPRI’s dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to 2022 Nepal’s Social Accounting Matrix. Two scenarios are evaluated: a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario and an NDC 3.0 scenario reflecting successful implementation of interventions such as climate-smart agriculture, improved cattle shed management, soil organic matter enhancement, irrigation expansion, and post-harvest loss reduction. Model results indicate substantial economic and welfare gains: agricultural GDP increases by 2.85 percent annually through 2035, national GDP growth rises by 0.94 percentage points per year, and approximately 317,400 individuals are lifted above the $2.15/day poverty line. Among all interventions, post-harvest loss reduction contributes the most, followed by improved livestock management. While NDC-aligned agricultural interventions offer substantial economic potential, their success depends on addressing significant fiscal, institutional, and implementation challenges. Without strengthened coordination, adequate financing, and improved extension capacity, Nepal risks falling short of the productivity and resilience gains envisioned under NDC 3.0.

Year published

2026

Authors

Marharajan, Nanda Kumar; Kafle, Aakriti; Pal, Barun Deb; Ajmani, Manmeet Singh

Citation

Marharajan, Nanda Kumar; Kafle, Aakriti; Pal, Barun Deb; and Ajmani, Manmeet Singh. 2026. Agriculture in Nepal’s NDC 3.0: Economy-wide impacts on Nepal’s economy. IIDS Policy Brief. Kathmandu, Nepal: Institute for Integrated Development Studies. https://iids.org.np/portfolio/agriculture-in-nepals-ndc-3-0-economy-wide-impacts-on-nepals-economy/

Country/Region

Nepal

Keywords

Southern Asia; Asia; Agricultural Policies; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture; Interventions; Climate Resilience

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Electrification of the transportation sector in Nepal: Economic potential and fiscal challenges

2026Khan, Zaky; Kafle, Shakshyam; Joshi, Dilasha; Ajmani, Manmeet Singh; Pal, Barun Deb
Details

Electrification of the transportation sector in Nepal: Economic potential and fiscal challenges

Transport sector is central to Nepal’s economic and energy systems but is also a major source of fiscal and environmental vulnerability. The sector facilitates over 90% of the movement of passengers and goods but remains overwhelmingly dependent on imported petroleum products, which accounts for nearly one-fifth of the national import bill. The Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) represents a strategic policy shift towards electrification of transport sector, leveraging Nepal’s surplus hydropower to reduce fossil-fuel dependence and promote low-carbon growth. Using IFPRI’s dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to the 2022 Nepal’s Social Accounting Matrix, two scenarios were simulated: a Business-as-Usual path and an Electric Vehicle (EV) transition aligned with NDC 3.0 targets. Results show that successful electrification could make Nepal’s economy 1.4% larger by 2035, generating about 10,000 jobs, and lifting around 9,000 people out of poverty. However, fiscal analysis reveals substantial revenue and foreign-exchange pressures, with EV imports in FY 2023/24 alone leading to a revenue shortfall of NPR 15.59 billion due to lower import tariffs and a forex burden of NPR 17.07 billion. The findings highlight that while electrification of transport sector can drive sustainable growth and resilience, its economic promise depends on coherent fiscal reform and policy coordination to prevent revenue erosion and ensure a just, inclusive transition.

Year published

2026

Authors

Khan, Zaky; Kafle, Shakshyam; Joshi, Dilasha; Ajmani, Manmeet Singh; Pal, Barun Deb

Citation

Khan, Zaky; Kafle, Shakshyam; Joshi, Dilasha; Ajmani, Manmeet Singh; and Pal, Barun Deb. 2026. Electrification of the transportation sector in Nepal: Economic potential and fiscal challenges. IIDS Policy Brief. Kathmandu, Nepal: Institute for Integrated Development Studies. https://iids.org.np/portfolio/electrification-of-the-transportation-sector-in-nepal-economic-potential-and-fiscal-challenges/

Country/Region

Nepal

Keywords

Southern Asia; Asia; Transport; Electrification; Computable General Equilibrium Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

Blogs

Balancing external shocks and domestic reforms: Do U.S. tariffs erode India’s tax reform benefits?
Research Post
 | 
February 05, 2026

Balancing external shocks and domestic reforms: Do U.S. tariffs erode India’s tax reform benefits?

By Barun Deb Pal and Manmeet Ajmani

Modeling converging economic impacts.

Training on food demand systems to build policy research capacity in India
Event Post
 | 
December 19, 2025

Training on food demand systems to build policy research capacity in India

By Manmeet Ajmani, Andrew Comstock, Olivier Ecker, and Barun Deb Pal

Essential skills to manage evolving food systems.

What ails India’s free trade agreements?
Issue Post
 | 
March 12, 2020

What ails India’s free trade agreements?

By Sanjib Pohit and Barun Deb Pal

Lack of harmonized standards and certification issues that increase transaction costs plague India’s FTAs.

View all Blogs

Events

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

August 2 to 7, 2024

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists

The triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE-2024), centred on the theme “Transformation Towards Sustainable Agri-Food Systems” is scheduled from August 2-7, 2024, in New Delhi, India. The conference offers a distinctive platform, providing a golden opportunity for the agricultural academic institutions and researchers to convene in person, exchange knowledge, and actively contribute to the […]

5th Global Food Security Conference
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

April 9 to 12, 2024

5th Global Food Security Conference

Conference: April 9-12, 2024 – 7:30 AM- 6:00 PM CET. Building on the momentum from the UN Food System Summit and recognizing that the 2030 target year of the Sustainable Development Goals is on the horizon, this 5th Global Food Security Conference will bring together science, business, and policy to address this need.

News

March 10, 2020 | In the News

What ails India’s free trade agreements (FTA)? (Financial Express)

The Financial Express (India) published an op-ed by South Asia Office, Project Manager Barun Deb Pal and co-author Sanjib Pohit on the lack of harmonized standards and certification issues that increase transaction costs plague India’s FTAs. All FTAs are bound by the rules, which need to be adhered to if one is to benefit from […]