Subscribe

Back

Who we are

With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Kinya Kaibung’a

Kinya Kaibung’a is a Research Officer with the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in Nairobi, Kenya. She has a keen interest in leveraging machine learning, AI, and other cutting-edge technologies to boost climate resilience and food security in smart agriculture systems.

Back

What we do

Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

Research topics

Projects and impact

Food Security Portal

Modeling tools

What’s new

Where we work

Back

Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 480 employees working in over 70 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

IFPRI Regional Programs

IFPRI Country and Regional Offices

Research by country and region

Subscribe

experts

Luis Escalante

Associate Research Fellow

Follow

Luis

at:

ORCiD
escalante_luis

Bio

Luis Escalante is an Associate Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research interests include the impacts of climate change, gender inequalities, poverty reduction, and food security. Before joining IFPRI, Luis worked as a post-doctoral research fellow at the University of Minho, Portugal. He holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from the Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad de Cusco, Peru, and a master’s degree and a doctorate in development economics from the Université le Havre, France, where he specialized in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models.

Research Gate Profile

Publications

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala

2026Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; Hernandez, Manuel A.
Details

The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala

International migration affects labor supply, production patterns, and external income flows in origin countries, yet our understanding of its economy-wide and distributional consequences remains limited, particularly with regard to the role of return migration. This study integrates detailed microdata on migrant profiles into a general equilibrium model applied to Guatemala to examine how emigration and return migration affect macroeconomic performance, sectoral dynamics, and household welfare. We simulate three scenarios: a reference scenario reflecting recent-historical emigration patterns (MIG-0), a reduced-emigration scenario (MIG-1), and a net-return migration scenario (MIG-2), capturing recent shifts in emigration and return flows by skill level. Results reveal trade-offs between aggregate economic performance and distributional impacts across households. Compared to a baseline economy with no mobility, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises modestly under the reference scenario (+0.2 percent) and by additional 0.3–0.5 percentage points under the reduced-emigration and net-return scenarios, driven by expanded labor supply from returnees and currency depreciation. Non-agro-processing manufacturing shows the largest expansion (up to 1.8 percent), reflecting its strong labor-absorption potential. Household welfare, especially among remittance-dependent households, is highly sensitive to these flows, with income and consumption declining under the two counterfactual migration scenarios. These findings underscore the need for policies that facilitate returnee reintegration and strengthen social protection for remittance-dependent households, ensuring that the macroeconomic gains from migration adjustments translate into equitable welfare improvements.

Year published

2026

Authors

Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; Hernandez, Manuel A.

Citation

Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; and Hernandez, Manuel A. 2026. The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala. World Development 206(October 2026): 107450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107450

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Central America; Americas; Migration; Impact; Circular Migration; Models; Labour Market; Welfare; Households

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107450 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

Wildfire shocks, labor markets, and public policies: Economy-wide evidence from a Mediterranean country

2026Escalante, Luis Enrique; Sousa, Rita; Gómez-Plana, Antonio G.; Gião, Cristiana
Details

Wildfire shocks, labor markets, and public policies: Economy-wide evidence from a Mediterranean country

Using the 2017 Portuguese wildfires as empirical evidence from a Mediterranean climate country, this paper assesses the economy-wide and employment effects of wildfire-related capital and labor shocks through a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with an extended labor-market framework. The analysis focuses on how wildfire shocks interact with labor markets, affect aggregate welfare, and condition the effectiveness of public policy responses. The results show that labor-market disruptions amplify economic losses beyond direct physical damage. Among the policy scenarios examined, comprehensive responses combining infrastructure investment, sector-specific support, and household transfers provide the strongest mitigation of aggregate losses. Recovery and mitigation policies generate the strongest positive effects on GDP, while the fire suppression-cost scenario alone has limited effectiveness. Employment impacts are concentrated in the primary and tourism-related sectors, particularly forestry, agriculture, transport, and accommodation. The findings highlight the importance of maintaining labor-force participation during climate disasters and of combining capital restoration with household support. By quantifying the economy-wide trade-offs between wildfire damage, labor-market disruption, and public-response channels, the paper provides evidence relevant to wildfire-prone Mediterranean economies and to broader environmental-development debates.

Year published

2026

Authors

Escalante, Luis Enrique; Sousa, Rita; Gómez-Plana, Antonio G.; Gião, Cristiana

Citation

Escalante, Luis Enrique; Sousa, Rita; Gómez-Plana, Antonio G.; and Gião, Cristiana. 2026. Wildfire shocks, labor markets, and public policies: Economy-wide evidence from a Mediterranean country. Environmental Development 60(September 2026): 101547. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2026.101547

Country/Region

Portugal

Keywords

Europe; Southern Europe; Wildfires; Shock; Labour Market; Public Policies; Mediterranean Region; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Modelling

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2026.101547 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Resource thumbnail

Blog Post

When more migrants stay home: Evidence from Guatemala

2026Hernandez, Manuel; Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta
Details

When more migrants stay home: Evidence from Guatemala

Key takeaways • When emigration declines and return migration increases in Guatemala, economic growth is projected to improve, a new study indicates. GDP rises faster, exports increase, and manufacturing and agriculture perform better. • However, these economic gains do not reach everyone equally. Reduced migration lowers remittance inflows, slowing income and consumption growth among households that depend on them, especially in rural areas. • Policies should support returnees and vulnerable households. Facilitating migrants’ economic reintegration while protecting remittance-dependent households can help spread the benefits of stronger growth.

Year published

2026

Authors

Hernandez, Manuel; Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta

Citation

Hernandez, Manuel; Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta. 2026. When more migrants stay home: Evidence from Guatemala. IFPRI Blog Post. https://www.ifpri.org/blog/when-more-migrants-stay-home-evidence-from-guatemala/

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Latin America and the Caribbean; Migration

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Blog Post

Blogs

When more migrants stay home: Evidence from Guatemala
Research Post
 | 
July 10, 2026

When more migrants stay home: Evidence from Guatemala

By Manuel Hernandez, Luis Escalante, and Emerta Aragie

Economic impacts of shifting migration.

Research

Topics/Countries