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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics.

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Luis Escalante

Associate Research Fellow

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Bio

Luis Escalante is an Associate Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research interests include the impacts of climate change, gender inequalities, poverty reduction, and food security. Before joining IFPRI, Luis worked as a post-doctoral research fellow at the University of Minho, Portugal. He holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from the Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad de Cusco, Peru, and a master’s degree and a doctorate in development economics from the Université le Havre, France, where he specialized in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models.

Research Gate Profile

Publications

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Journal Article

The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala

2026Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; Hernandez, Manuel A.
Details

The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala

International migration affects labor supply, production patterns, and external income flows in origin countries, yet our understanding of its economy-wide and distributional consequences remains limited, particularly with regard to the role of return migration. This study integrates detailed microdata on migrant profiles into a general equilibrium model applied to Guatemala to examine how emigration and return migration affect macroeconomic performance, sectoral dynamics, and household welfare. We simulate three scenarios: a reference scenario reflecting recent-historical emigration patterns (MIG-0), a reduced-emigration scenario (MIG-1), and a net-return migration scenario (MIG-2), capturing recent shifts in emigration and return flows by skill level. Results reveal trade-offs between aggregate economic performance and distributional impacts across households. Compared to a baseline economy with no mobility, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises modestly under the reference scenario (+0.2 percent) and by additional 0.3–0.5 percentage points under the reduced-emigration and net-return scenarios, driven by expanded labor supply from returnees and currency depreciation. Non-agro-processing manufacturing shows the largest expansion (up to 1.8 percent), reflecting its strong labor-absorption potential. Household welfare, especially among remittance-dependent households, is highly sensitive to these flows, with income and consumption declining under the two counterfactual migration scenarios. These findings underscore the need for policies that facilitate returnee reintegration and strengthen social protection for remittance-dependent households, ensuring that the macroeconomic gains from migration adjustments translate into equitable welfare improvements.

Year published

2026

Authors

Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; Hernandez, Manuel A.

Citation

Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; and Hernandez, Manuel A. 2026. The two sides of migration in Central America: Aggregate and distributional impacts in Guatemala. World Development 206(October 2026): 107450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107450

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Central America; Americas; Migration; Impact; Circular Migration; Models; Labour Market; Welfare; Households

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107450 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

Wildfire shocks, labor markets, and public policies: Economy-wide evidence from a Mediterranean country

2026Escalante, Luis Enrique; Sousa, Rita; Gómez-Plana, Antonio G.; Gião, Cristiana
Details

Wildfire shocks, labor markets, and public policies: Economy-wide evidence from a Mediterranean country

Using the 2017 Portuguese wildfires as empirical evidence from a Mediterranean climate country, this paper assesses the economy-wide and employment effects of wildfire-related capital and labor shocks through a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with an extended labor-market framework. The analysis focuses on how wildfire shocks interact with labor markets, affect aggregate welfare, and condition the effectiveness of public policy responses. The results show that labor-market disruptions amplify economic losses beyond direct physical damage. Among the policy scenarios examined, comprehensive responses combining infrastructure investment, sector-specific support, and household transfers provide the strongest mitigation of aggregate losses. Recovery and mitigation policies generate the strongest positive effects on GDP, while the fire suppression-cost scenario alone has limited effectiveness. Employment impacts are concentrated in the primary and tourism-related sectors, particularly forestry, agriculture, transport, and accommodation. The findings highlight the importance of maintaining labor-force participation during climate disasters and of combining capital restoration with household support. By quantifying the economy-wide trade-offs between wildfire damage, labor-market disruption, and public-response channels, the paper provides evidence relevant to wildfire-prone Mediterranean economies and to broader environmental-development debates.

Year published

2026

Authors

Escalante, Luis Enrique; Sousa, Rita; Gómez-Plana, Antonio G.; Gião, Cristiana

Citation

Escalante, Luis Enrique; Sousa, Rita; Gómez-Plana, Antonio G.; and Gião, Cristiana. 2026. Wildfire shocks, labor markets, and public policies: Economy-wide evidence from a Mediterranean country. Environmental Development 60(September 2026): 101547. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2026.101547

Country/Region

Portugal

Keywords

Europe; Southern Europe; Wildfires; Shock; Labour Market; Public Policies; Mediterranean Region; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Modelling

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2026.101547 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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Working Paper

Gender, youth, and growth: Unpacking the productivity–transformation nexus in Rwanda

2026Aragie, Emerta A.; Escalante, Luis Enrique; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; Niyonsingiza, Josue
Details

Gender, youth, and growth: Unpacking the productivity–transformation nexus in Rwanda

The relationship between labor productivity and economic transformation, and their combined impact on labor market dynamics, remains insufficiently understood and highly country specific. This study applies an economywide analytical framework, using Rwanda as a case study, to examine how youth and women’s productivity influence economic growth and structural transformation, and how this transformation process, in turn, affects these groups. The results indicate that labor productivity gains—whether economywide or concentrated among youth—shift growth toward the industrial and service sectors, while growth in the agricultural sector is minimal. Increases in productivity of women’ labor generate more balanced growth across sectors and substantially enhance women’s industrial participation. Productivity gains of youth labor induce stronger structural shifts, as young workers move from agriculture to expanding industrial and service sectors, though this transition partially displaces adult workers. In general, labor income in these simulations rises broadly in line with GDP, with youth and women benefiting most under targeted scenarios. Sector-specific growth strategies yield distinct distributional effects, however: industry-led growth benefits women and adults, while service-led growth favors the versatile youth. Overall, productivity-driven structural transformation in Rwanda fosters welfare gains, although potential trade-offs between inclusiveness across gender and age groups and aggregate economic performance warrant further investigation. In conclusion, policy design in Rwanda should ensure that gains in aggregate economic growth are balanced with inclusive outcomes for women, youth, and adults.

Year published

2026

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Escalante, Luis Enrique; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; Niyonsingiza, Josue

Citation

Aragie, Emerta; Escalante, Luis; Thurlow, James; Warner, James; and Niyonsingiza, Josue. 2026. Gender, youth, and growth: Productivity–Transformation Nexus in Rwanda. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2415. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/182847

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Labour; Labour Productivity; Gender; Youth; Economic Growth; Transformation

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Blogs

When more migrants stay home: Evidence from Guatemala
Research Post
 | 
July 10, 2026

When more migrants stay home: Evidence from Guatemala

By Manuel Hernandez, Luis Escalante, and Emerta Aragie

Economic impacts of shifting migration.

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IFPRI @ Tropentag 2026
IFPRI at External Event

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September 16 to 18, 2026

IFPRI @ Tropentag 2026

IFPRI is pleased to participate in Tropentag 2026, taking place September 16–18, 2026, in Göttingen, Germany. The annual interdisciplinary conference focuses on research in tropical and subtropical agriculture, natural resource management, and rural development. This year’s conference will be held under the theme “Towards multi-functional agro-ecosystems promoting climate-resilient futures.” Tropentag 2026 will highlight interdisciplinary research […]

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