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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

Erick Boy

researcher spotlight

Erick Boy

Erick Boy is the Chief Nutritionist in the HarvestPlus section of the Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit. As head of nutrition for the HarvestPlus Program since 2008, he has led research that has generated scientific evidence on biofortified staple crops as efficacious and effective interventions to help address iron, vitamin A, and zinc deficiency in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and South Asia.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Timothy Thomas

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

Tim Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. This work has expanded recently to include evaluating the fuller impact of climate change by accounting for uncertainty and interannual variability, especially in regard to extreme events and low-productivity years. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures; generating crop yield emulators to provide intuition and to speed simulations; and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics. Tim has also worked in a variety of domains developing innovative methods such as spatial disaggregation (applied to gridded agricultural GDP in Brazil); determining optimal cropland level subnationally (for Ethiopia); and together with other researchers, investigating the impact of climate change on aflatoxins.

Publications

Publications

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Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food systems in relation to climate change?

2025Thomas, Timothy S.; Mukherji, Aditi
Details

What do we know about the future of food systems in relation to climate change?

Climate change poses major challenges to agriculture and food systems, but the latest foresight modeling suggests impacts may be more nuanced than previously thought. For example, economic feedback mechanisms affect global average impacts of climate change on yields and important differences arise between the various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios and climate models. More importantly, global averages mask wide diversity in impacts across geographies, commodities, and people’s ability to adapt. In addition to long-term impacts of changes in global averages, increasing climate variability is likely to lead to a higher frequency of production shocks from adverse climate events. Climate change is expected to lower GDP and therefore increase the number of food-insecure households and increase poverty. It may also slow growth of agricultural productivity, adversely impacting rural households. Agriculture and food systems (including diets, energy use, and land use change) play a key role in global emissions and strategies to reach net zero, but these strategies are at cross purposes with meeting food needs under climate change and rising demand for food globally. Foresight modeling can help decision-makers evaluate these trade-offs and ameliorate particularly adverse impacts.

Year published

2025

Authors

Thomas, Timothy S.; Mukherji, Aditi

Citation

Thomas, Timothy S.; and Mukherji, Aditi. 2025. What do we know about the future of food systems in relation to climate change? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 6, Pp. 34-40. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175228

Keywords

Food Systems; Climate; Climate Change; Climate Models; Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Yield Factors; Extreme Weather Events; Poverty; Resilience

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Resource thumbnail

Book Chapter

What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa?

2025Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie; Hartley, Faaiqa; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Gabriel, Sherwin
Details

What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa?

Food demand in East and southern Africa (ESA) is expected to be three to nine times higher by 2050 (relative to 2010), depending on the emerging economic and demographic trends. To meet demand, agrifood systems (AFS) in the region must expand and diversify. Consumption demand for meats and fruits and vegetables will more than triple by 2050, creating economic opportunities but also inclusivity challenges. Transformations in AFS must increase the sector’s resilience to supply-side shocks that threaten food security and nutrition. Favorable policies and investments that are country-specific, inclusive, and sustainable will be powerful tools to shape and influence AFS’s transition in the region.

Year published

2025

Authors

Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie; Hartley, Faaiqa; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Gabriel, Sherwin

Citation

Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie; Hartley, Faaiqa; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; and Gabriel, Sherwin. 2025. What do we know about the future of food systems in East and Southern Africa? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part Two: What Do We Know About the Future of Food System in Selected Regions? Chapter 18, Pp. 103-108. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175455

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Southern Africa; Food Systems; Agrobiodiversity; Demand; Supply Balance; Food Security; Agricultural Production; Income Distribution; Nutrition; Trade

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Country profile – Kenya: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

2025Mawia, Harriet; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Bryan, Elizabeth; Thomas, Timothy S.
Details

Country profile – Kenya: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

Agriculture is vital to Kenya’s economy, accounting for 20% of the country’s GDP in 2020. Yet the growth of the sector has slowed in recent years due to unfavorable weather conditions, leading to a reduction in crop and livestock performance (Central Bank of Kenya, 2023). While employment in agriculture has been steadily declining (to 32% in 2023), the sector still employs a large share of the rural population and is the main source of informal employment, rural income, and livelihoods (D’Alessandro et al., 2015; ILO 2025). A majority of Kenyan farmers operate on a small scale and are solely dependent on rainfall (D’Alessandro et al., 2015). However, since the 1970s, the country has experienced significant changes in rainfall pat terns–average rainfall during the long season has decreased while rainfall during other times of the year has increased and the country has experienced more frequent climate extreme events (Kogo et al. 2021). Increased climate variability has negative effects on agriculture and may exacerbate inequalities within the sector. Due to gender inequalities and gender-differentiated roles in agrifood systems, men and women do not experience climate change and variability in the same ways (Balikoowa et al., 2019; Lecoutere et al. 2023). According to the World Economic Forum, women are more vulnerable than men to climate change due to lower education and exclusion from the political and domestic decision-making processes that affect their lives (Gunawardena, 2020).

Year published

2025

Authors

Mawia, Harriet; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Bryan, Elizabeth; Thomas, Timothy S.

Citation

Mawia, Harriet; Ferguson, Nathaniel; Bryan, Elizabeth; and Thomas, Timothy S. 2025. Country profile – Kenya: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages. Gender, Climate Change, and Nutrition Integration Initiative Project Note July 2025. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175631

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Agriculture; Employment; Climate Change; Extreme Weather Events; Gender; Agrifood Systems

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

Blogs

For climate change, the American farmer is the sleeping giant
IFPRI Blog
 | 
September 07, 2017

For climate change, the American farmer is the sleeping giant

By Timothy Thomas

U.S. corn farmers have largely avoided rising temperatures during growing seasons. What happens when climate change kicks in?

Heat dome to do approximately $2 billion in damage to U.S. corn
IFPRI Blog
 | 
July 27, 2016

Heat dome to do approximately $2 billion in damage to U.S. corn

By Timothy Thomas

An IFPRI researcher's estimate shows just a few days of widespread high temperatures will end up harming U.S. corn yields

Do economic predictions of damage from climate change cause policymakers to focus on the wrong thing?
IFPRI Research Blog
 | 
December 01, 2015

Do economic predictions of damage from climate change cause policymakers to focus on the wrong thing?

By Timothy Thomas

Do economic predictions of damage from climate change cause policymakers to focus on the wrong thing?

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Events

Informing Economic Growth and Food Security Opportunities in Papua New Guinea
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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March 21, 2025, 9:00 – 5:30 pm

Informing Economic Growth and Food Security Opportunities in Papua New Guinea

The International Food Policy Research Institute, in collaboration with Department of Prime Minister and National Executive Council, Department of Agriculture and Livestock, Department of Health and the Department of National Planning and Monitoring, will host a research seminar on “Informing Economic Growth and Food Security Opportunities in Papua New Guinea”, on March 21st, 2025. As […]

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

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August 2 to 7, 2024

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists

The triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE-2024), centred on the theme “Transformation Towards Sustainable Agri-Food Systems” is scheduled from August 2-7, 2024, in New Delhi, India. The conference offers a distinctive platform, providing a golden opportunity for the agricultural academic institutions and researchers to convene in person, exchange knowledge, and actively contribute to the […]

What does climate change mean for the future of agriculture? Insights from the IMPACT modeling system
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

May 15, 2024, 10:00 – 11:00 am

What does climate change mean for the future of agriculture? Insights from the IMPACT modeling system

Virtual Event: May 15, 2024 at 10:00am-11:00am EDT. This webinar, the first in the series, will focus on how IMPACT can be used to analyze how climate impacts on agrifood systems (and particularly crop productivity) may vary both across locations and over time in the coming decades, and how that can inform decisions about policies and investment today.

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