Publications and Datasets

Gendered networks and demand for an agricultural technology in India

Studies on social learning and technology adoption often only consider the networks of a single individual in a household as a source of information influencing agricultural production decisions. We test the validity of this assumption by examining the role of men’s and women’s social networks in the adoption of a novel water-saving technology, laser land leveling (LLL), in India. Using network data from men and women in the same household, we test the influence of being connected to an adopter on demand for LLL. We identify the causal gender-specific network effects using a field experiment that combines an auction with a lottery for the technology, making the presence of adopters in networks exogenous. The data reveal that men’s and women’s networks vary in size and show little overlap. We find that whereas household demand for LLL increases when men are linked to an LLL-adopting household, it decreases when the network linkages run through women. These gender-differentiated effects are concentrated in households where the woman’s opinion about the technology is valued by the man and in non-poor households. The results highlight that social learning may interact with the socio-demographic characteristics of households in myriad ways to influence household technology adoption decisions, and that agricultural-based information interventions ought to also consider how information gets used in the household. JEL classification: D13; Q12; Q16

COVID-19 and rural livelihoods: Lessons from a longer-term assessment and the path to recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic had profound effects on livelihoods across rural populations worldwide. Building on earlier work that examined the initial effects of the pandemic on food security and nutrition among smallholder agricultural households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala, this study offers a longer-term assessment of the impacts and the path to recovery. We rely on a unique longitudinal survey of 1,262 households conducted over four rounds between 2019 and 2022, with the first round in person and the subsequent ones by phone. The results show substantial recoveries in food security and dietary diversity in the region by mid-2022 compared to 2020, but at levels still worse than pre-pandemic ones for some indicators. There is also a sustained increase in the intention to emigrate. The households that were initially more affected in terms of food security and nutrition but recovered faster include those located in one of the three studied departments and families living above the poverty line, while smallholders affected by hurricanes, non-coffee producers, and indigenous populations took longer to recover. We additionally provide quantitative estimates for a subsample of households interviewed in person during a fifth survey round at the end of 2022, showing an average decline of about 16 percent in total household income three years after the start of the pandemic, mainly driven by a decrease in agricultural income, combined with a 26-percent increase in expenditures and an important surge in indebtedness. Overall, the study offers valuable lessons regarding the recovery of vulnerable households following a major global crisis and in a context of additional shocks.

Estimating multidimensional development resilience

Existing measures of resilience are typically based on a single well-being indicator. This is problematic in contexts where households face deprivations across multiple dimensions. We develop a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approaches with multidimensional poverty measurement methods. Applying these to household panel data from Ethiopia, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions. Univariate resilience measures constructed using consumption expenditure, dietary diversity and livestock asset holdings show distinct temporal and spatial distributional patterns. But while univariate measures are weakly correlated with one another and with different well-being metrics, multivariate measures exhibit much stronger rank correlations. When we contrast univariate measures of resilience to multidimensional measures of resilience, we find that the latter vary less over the study period; multidimensional resilience measures seem to capture more “persistent or structural” vulnerability and associated capacity of households. We also demonstrate the differences in these univariate and multivariate measures, including the potential of the composite multidimensional resilience measures for supporting targeting processes.

Agricultural mechanization

Higher altitude stunts children’s physical growth: A systematic review and meta-analysis

How can anticipatory action programming support women? Application of the reach-benefit-empower-transform framework in Nepal and Nigeria

Imperfect competition and asymmetric welfare effects of global price and productivity shocks: a CGE model analysis for Senegal

This article investigates the asymmetric effects of global price and productivity shocks on welfare in the context of imperfect competition. The primary objective is to understand how market concentration affects the transmission of economic shocks and their impacts on various households. A CGE model, calibrated on a 2014 social accounting matrix for Senegal, is used. The model features a trading sector operating under a Cournot oligopoly with increasing returns to scale. Two scenarios are simulated: a 15% increase in global import prices and a 10% increase in agricultural productivity, each considering different levels of market concentration. The findings reveal that higher global import prices reduce household well-being, a situation exacerbated by low market competition. In contrast, agricultural productivity gains enhance well-being, with these benefits amplified by greater competition. However, the wealthiest households in Dakar benefit from low competition due to their positions in oligopolistic companies. To maximize household well-being, economic policies should focus on strengthening market competition, particularly in the trading sector. Actions such as reducing entry barriers for new businesses and regulating anti-competitive practices can help mitigate the adverse effects of global price increases and amplify the benefits of agricultural productivity gains.

Understanding spatial heterogeneity of hidden hunger in Senegal

Using household consumption data collected in 2017/18, this paper analyzes patterns of urban and rural food consumption in Senegal. We adopt two methodological approaches: an in-depth (spatial) profiling of current diets and corresponding nutrient intakes and an application of the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS). Our findings indicate that Senegal is a typical case of micronutrient deficiency, especially regarding calcium, iron, and vitamin B12. Due to their higher income status and better food access, urban dwellers on average have a more diversified diet with higher nutrient intakes compared to their rural counterparts, especially regarding calcium, vitamin B12, and vitamin A. While the country’s food system in general is unable to assure a nutritious diet for all, the most remote rural departments in Senegal, such as Saraya and Podor, display the highest nutrient deficiencies and therefore should be targeted with priority. Apart from geographical targeting and given their higher responsiveness to price and income changes, policies based on food pricing and income transfers should be implemented to ensure a minimal nutrient intake among the most food-insecure households. These policies could be further complemented with behavioral change campaigns to promote an alternative set of nutrient-rich and cost-effective food items.

Step by step to higher yields? Adoption and impacts of a sequenced training approach for climate-smart coffee production in Uganda

Climate change further exacerbates sustainability challenges in coffee cultivation. Addressing these requires effective delivery mechanisms for sustainable farming practices, particularly in smallholder contexts. We assess a novel public-private extension approach in Uganda, called Stepwise, comprising a sequence of climate-smart and good agricultural practices in four incremental steps. Using a mixed-method approach, an index that captures adoption intensity rather than binary uptake, and survey data from 915 Robusta and Arabica coffee farmers, we find adoption levels around 46% and relatively uniform amongst treated, spillover and comparison farmers. Regional variations suggest differing benefits across coffee varieties. Qualitative findings identify barriers to adoption, including financial and labour constraints, suboptimal training delivery, and input and output market imperfections. Despite relatively low uptake, adoption of more than half of the Stepwise practices is associated with substantial gains: inverse probability weighted regression adjustment reveals a 23% increase in yield and a 32% increase in revenue. Our findings add to the adoption literature, which often highlights limited uptake, and have important policy implications. Strengthening producer organizations, delivering targeted training but also innovative solutions for access to inputs and fair pricing, hold considerable potential to increase the adoption of climate-smart practices, particularly among resource-constrained farmers.

Internal displacement and the measurement of women’s empowerment: Evidence from a test-retest survey experiment

Women’s empowerment includes the ability to participate in existing market activities, access and control the use of productive resources, obtain opportunities for decent work, control the use of time, and voice and participate in decision making within households and communities (United Nations 2018). Increasing women’s economic empowerment is relevant to several sustainable development goals (i.e., to achieve gender equality, promoting full and productive employment and decent work for all, and reducing existing inequalities). Given all of this, accurately measuring women’s empowerment systematically across a variety of settings is imperative. As such, studying innovations in measuring women’s agency, empowerment, or decision-making power is an active area of research (Malapit et al. 2019; Donald et al. 2020; Laszlo et al. 2020; Buvinic et al. 2020; Quisumbing et al. 2023; Jayachandran et al. 2023).

The landscape of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa: Are youth driving structural transformation?

This paper assesses the landscape and evolution of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa, focusing on three important countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria—which together account for 40 percent of Africa’s youth population. We also examine whether Africa’s youth are driving structural transformation. To do so, we combine nationally representative data and surveys spanning more than two decades (from the 1990s to the 2020s). We situate the analysis within the region’s pressing youth unemployment challenge, where annual labor-force entrants surpass job creation. Our findings show that, despite substantial heterogeneities across countries, largely due to sectoral composition of economies, youth remain engaged in agriculture almost as much as adults. While labor continues to gradually shift out of agriculture, it has moved overwhelmingly into services rather than industry, reinforcing the unique pattern of structural transformation in Africa. More importantly, exit rates from agriculture are similar for youth and adults, except in Ethiopia, where youth are leaving agriculture at slightly higher rates than adults. In Ethiopia and Kenya, the entry rate into services is higher among young women, while entry into industry is higher among young men, suggesting distributional and equity implications of Africa’s ongoing structural transformation. These findings offer important insights and challenge simplistic views that youth are leaving agriculture in “droves” as well as the sometimes-embroidered perceptions of their role in that transformation. We discuss the implications of these findings for sustaining inclusive employment opportunities and argue that agriculture should remain central to job creation efforts in Africa.

Whole maize flour could enhance food and nutrition security in Malawi

Maize is the staple cereal in Malawi, with a daily per capita consumption of 383 g (dry matter basis), primarily consumed in the form of nsima, a thick porridge. We combined a milling experiment with focus group discussions (FGDs) to provide insights into mass and nutrient losses during maize grain dehulling and maize flour consumption patterns in rural Malawi. Milling batches (30 kg) of four maize grain varieties were dehulled at three abrasive disk dehullers under controlled conditions. The impact of maize variety and dehuller design on mass and nutrient losses during dehulling was statistically significant (p < 0.05), with a mean mass loss of 28.1 ± 5.7%, and nutrient losses of 9.8 ± 1.9% for protein, 61.7 ± 2.0% for zinc, and 47.7 ± 3.6% for iron. Six FGDs conducted in rural areas of Lilongwe District revealed a preference for refined flour due to convenience and cultural norms, despite the nutritional benefits of whole grain flour, which was recognized for its ability to provide satiety, particularly during periods of maize scarcity. Participants also highlighted switching between flour types based on seasonal maize availability, social stigma associated with whole grain flour, and awareness of nutrient losses during dehulling. Given Malawi’s precarious food insecurity situation, transitioning from dehulled maize flour nsima to whole maize flour or less refined nsima, is imperative. Our study findings can have food and nutritional savings for other southern Africa countries where the dehulling is a common practice.

How social norms influence processes of change related to an economic intervention in Bangladesh

Intimate partner violence (IPV) occurs due to multiple factors at the individual, relational, community and societal levels. Previous research has shown that a cash, food and behaviour change communication programme called the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI) implemented from 2012 to 2014 in Bangladesh had sustained effects on IPV. We collected qualitative data among former TMRI participants in 2023 that allows exploring how social norms may have played a role in shaping the changes related to IPV along four pathways through which TMRI influenced IPV: 1) economic security, 2) family relationships, 3) women’s empowerment, and 4) social support and community relationships. We conducted nine focus group discussions (FGDs) with 49 women TMRI participants, nine FGDs with 52 husbands of women TMRI participants, 54 in-depth interviews (IDIs) with women TMRI participants, and 10 IDIs with women who did not participate in TMRI. We find: along 1) women’s economic contributions may facilitate weakening of IPV norms, however norms on gender roles and seclusion constrain change; along 2) norms related to family reputation could influence IPV condemnation, however norms on female submission and obedience to in-laws constrain change; along 3) norms on female submission constrain female empowerment but could be weakened if women display knowledge aligning with gender roles; and, along 4) linkages to reduced IPV were less clear, with female seclusion norms constraining change, highlighting the importance of group activities. Our findings draw attention to the potential for economic interventions layered with context-specific norms interventions to achieve longer-term changes in IPV and gender inequalities.

Does small-scale irrigation affect women’s time allocation? Insights from Ethiopia

Small-scale irrigation (SSI) interventions have received increasing attention as a potential pathway for women’s empowerment in sub-Saharan Africa. One key aspect of women’s empowerment that SSI can influence is women’s time burden. Hypothesized benefits of SSI for women are less energy exertion and reduced labor in agriculture. Yet, these hypotheses have not been tested empirically. We explore how household adoption of different SSI technologies affects the time allocation of women in the household, using two rounds of intrahousehold panel survey data from Ethiopia. Two different approaches are used to address potential endogeneity issues related to time-constant and time-varying factors that may be correlated with both SSI and time use: an instrumental variables-correlated random effects approach and a fractional multinomial logit-correlated random effects with control function approach. The results suggest that household use of SSI in general is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time. The results further suggest that household use of motor pumps is associated with an increase in women’s leisure time and reductions in the time they spend on farming and personal care. Given that women often provide the labor for irrigation using manual, labor-intensive methods, such as watering cans, buckets, or hand- or foot-powered treadle pumps, the results suggest that SSI using motorized methods has the potential to free up women’s time in farming and enable more leisure time. These findings have broad implications for women’s empowerment and labor allocation. Future research using new and more comprehensive data could explore the mechanisms for the findings in this study and determine if SSI enables women to improve their ability to allocate their time to activities they prefer.

Rice milling and parboiling trade-offs for economic and nutritional gains with special attention to sub-Saharan Africa: A comprehensive review

Rice is an important source of calories and nutrients for people in low- and middle-income countries. In the quest to respond to consumer preferences and attract premium prices, paddy processors increase the degree of milling (polishing), largely affecting nutritional composition and economic value of milled rice. Milling and parboiling are crucial unit processing operations affecting the quality profile of rice. The literature poorly reports on milling and parboiling operations that provide economic and nutritional gains or losses. Thus, there are no standard milling and parboiling regimes recommended to influence technological and policy changes in favor of public health and nutrition. In this comprehensive review, rice milling and parboiling operations associated with nutritional, economic, food safety and environmental benefits have been presented and discussed. Optimal milling and parboiling strategies that provide nutritional, economic, food safety and environmental gains are proposed as alternatives to conventional processing technologies and practices. Improved parboiling and moderate degree of milling in two-stage systems appear to provide better economic and nutritional benefits.

Integrating carbon sequestration and yield optimization in Indian cropping systems

Agriculture contributes significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but also holds strong potential for mitigation – particularly through soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. This study evaluates the impact of integrated management practices—such as biochar application, optimized irrigation, and fertilizer management on yield improvement and SOC sequestration in semi-arid regions of Maharashtra, India. Using APSIM simulations across five districts and diverse cropping systems, it compares these practices with conventional farming. Results indicate that integrated practices consistently improve yields, SOC levels, and economic viability. For instance, maize yields under integrated practices increased by over 30 %, with substantial SOC gains. A cost-benefit analysis reveals high benefit-cost ratios, making these practices economically viable for smallholder farmers. This study highlights the transformative potential of integrated practices in addressing food security and environmental sustainability, especially in semi-arid regions. Policy recommendations include subsidizing biochar, promoting precision irrigation technologies, and integrating SOC sequestration strategies into national climate action plans. These findings provide actionable insights for scaling sustainable agricultural practices in resource-constrained settings. Previous article in

The characteristics of community seed schemes for grains and legumes: Insights from northern Nigeria

CONTEXT Despite the significant roles that intermediary seed systems play in the supply of quality seed in developing countries, including Africa South of the Sahara, the knowledge gap remains generally substantial regarding the general characteristics and seed quality assurance performance of intermediary seed systems like community seed schemes (CSS), which still predominantly operate outside the formal seed systems. OBJECTIVE We aim to narrow the knowledge gap on seed production practices implemented by CSS and their economic characteristics, the extent of seed quality assurance achieved, and potential challenges CSS is facing. METHODS Using primary survey data of seed producers of key grains (maize, rice, and sorghum) and legumes (cowpea and soybean) from 380 CSS in Kano state in northern Nigeria, we qualitatively assess seed production characteristics, financial structures of their seed production, aspects of quality assurance measures they engage, and potential roles of external support like training on their implementation of these quality assurance measures. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We discovered that many of the interviewed CSS have emerged endogenously, taking up seed production to address the challenges in access to quality seed in their locality. Their seed production has often grown into viable businesses that have provided potentially significant additions to their incomes. Oftentimes, these CSS implemented some seed quality assurance measures, including making closer visual checks of seed, checking germination rates, and bagging/packing seed, among others. However, fuller seed quality assurance may be significantly skill-intensive, and most CSS still do not implement many of the recommended measures under some of the intermediary quality assurance standards like quality declared seed. Our qualitative assessment suggests that future support for CSS can focus on technical support to raise the ability to engage in broader categories of quality assurance activities in financially viable ways and to improve the awareness and knowledge of different varieties and access to early generation seed. SIGNIFICANCE The quality assurance provided by existing community seed schemes in Nigeria may be relatively limited, particularly in terms of proper maintenance of seed production field and the quality of original varieties that they intend to multiply. Providing external support through training and technical assistance may be an effective way to transform community seed schemes into critical providers of seed quality assurance in intermediary seed systems and fill gaps in the formal seed system.

Buyer-side gender discrimination in bargaining: Evidence from seed sales in Uganda

Haggling over prices is a common feature of economic transactions in many societies. This study examines whether the gender of the seller influences buyers’ negotiation strategies and outcomes in bilateral price bargaining. Using a bargaining experiment in eastern Uganda, we analyze interactions between smallholder maize farmers and either a male or female seed seller. Our findings reveal that buyers negotiating with female sellers are less likely to accept the initial offer price and respond with lower counter-bids compared to those bargaining with male sellers. Negotiations also last, on average, one round longer when the seller is a woman, and final transaction prices are nearly 9 percent lower. These results are particularly relevant for rural economies, where restrictive gender norms limit women’s financial autonomy. Given that small agribusinesses often provide one of the few viable income-generating opportunities for women, gender biases in market interactions can have substantial implications for economic empowerment and household welfare.

A measure of industrial clustering: Considering relatedness and scale

JEL codes: L10; L50; L60

The (un)affordability of healthy diets in South Asia and the implications for nutrition-sensitive food policies

India’s agrifood system: Structural features and policy priorities

Gender roles in South Asian food systems

Adolescents in South Asian agrifood systems: Roles and aspirations

Food environments and behavioral drivers of food choice in South Asia

What are people eating in South Asia?

Social safety nets for a nutrition-sensitive food system in South Asia: Lessons from India

Consumption of foods high in fats, salt, and sugar in India: Prevalence, patterns, and policy imperatives

The agrifood system in South Asia: Pathways to sustainable healthy diets

South Asia is home to an estimated 2.08 billion people, making it the most densely populated region on the planet. This places immense pressure on the region’s agrifood systems to ensure that healthy and affordable food is available for all, a goal that can only be met by addressing today’s multiple interconnected challenges. Overcoming bottlenecks in agrifood systems — the networks of actors, activities, infrastructure, and policies that are involved in getting food from farms to mouths — requires data and evidence on the many elements of these complex systems. Moreover, that evidence must serve as a catalytic driver of change, which further requires strong partnerships between donors, researchers, civil society, industry, and policymakers. This report begins with a summary of the latest evidence on diets in the region, and then traces the drivers of current diets, starting from the food environment experienced by consumers, back through the diverse markets and farm production, and finally looks at the role of social protection and agrifood policy. The chapters on diets include close looks at consumption of unhealthy foods, the (un)affordability of healthy diets, and behavioral and environmental drivers of food choice. Production-related chapters consider trade-offs between production and consumption as well as how farming households adapt to climate shocks. Other chapters review evidence on the roles of men, women, and adolescents at different points in agrifood systems. The final chapters address lessons learned from social protection and on structural variations in India’s agricultural value chains. Many of the chapters draw from surveys recently conducted in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal under the CGIAR Research Initiative on Transforming Agrifood Systems (TAFSSA).

From data to decision: How the National Information Platform for Nutrition (NiPN) bridges the research-policy gap in Ethiopia’s nutrition sector

Bridging the gap between research and policy continues to be a major challenge in Ethiopia, particularly in the nutrition sector, where evidence is often fragmented, inconsistently collected, and underutilized. Traditional research-to-policy approaches are frequently misaligned with policymaking needs due to differences in timelines, priorities, and communication practices. While these challenges are not unique to Ethiopia—and indeed, numerous global efforts have attempted to address them with varying degrees of success—examples from other settings offer useful insights for strengthening the interface between evidence and action. In the Ethiopian context, the National Information Platform for Nutrition (NiPN) represents an important shift toward a more responsive, demand-driven model that seeks to improve the relevance and uptake of evidence. Unlike conventional approaches that begin with research questions and proceed directly to data collection, Ethiopia’s NiPN starts with policy question formulation, aligning evidence generation with real-time decision-making priorities. This approach emphasizes embedding research in institutional processes and tailoring outputs to policy needs. The paper explores how NiPN addresses structural barriers to nutrition governance—such as limited institutional capacity, fragmented coordination, and weak knowledge translation. It engages multiple sectors in mapping evidence, analyzing data, and supporting dialogue to inform actionable recommendations. Using examples like the Seqota Declaration and the School Feeding Programme, the paper demonstrates how NiPN has improved policy relevance, intervention targeting, and national ownership. The Ethiopian case offers transferable insights for other countries seeking to institutionalize evidence-informed policymaking in complex, multisectoral domains.

Household food production and dietary diversity in a remote, former socialist society: Panel data evidence from Tajikistan

Background Despite a growing interest in household-level agriculture–nutrition linkage, evidence remains thin in countries like Tajikistan, one of the poorest former socialist countries where food crop production decisions by individual farm households had been significantly regulated by the government until recently. Objectives We narrow this knowledge gap by examining the linkages between households’ food production practice as well as their productivity performances and dietary diversity scores (DDS) of both the household and individual women in Tajikistan. Methods We use a panel sample of households and individual women of reproductive ages in the Khatlon province of Tajikistan, the poorest province and a major agricultural region of the country. Difference-in-difference propensity score regressions and panel fixed-effects instrumental variable regressions are applied. Results Higher overall diversity in food groups (FGs) produced by households, as well as greater overall production per land and per household member at the household level, leads to higher DDS both for the household and for individual women, particularly in areas with poor food market access. FG-specific analyses suggest that for vegetables, fruits, legumes/nuts/seeds, dairy products, and eggs, significant one-on-one linkage exists between own production and consumption for these FGs. Conclusions Results underscore the importance of supporting household-level agricultural diversification and agricultural productivity growth in Tajikistan to improve dietary diversity, especially in remote areas.

Evolving rural food environments in South Asia: The role of processed foods, traditional markets, and marketing influences

Farming households’ adaptation to climatic shocks in South Asia: A food systems perspective

Overview – Agrifood systems transformation in South Asia: An agenda for impact and learning at scale

Monitoring the impact of recent price volatility on food group consumption in Rwanda

This research uses high-frequency food price data from more than 60 Rwandan markets integrated with bi-weekly dietary consumption data collected during two periods in 2021/22 and 2023/24. During these periods considerable price fluctuations were observed, providing a unique opportunity to track consumption responses to large price instability created by global shocks.

Synopsis: Unlocking agricultural efficiency: A stochastic frontier analysis of smallholder farmers in Rwanda

This study assesses the technical efficiency of smallholder farmers in Rwanda, with a focus on maximizing crop output value and identifying the socioeconomic drivers that shape technical efficiency.

When trade saves natural resources: Evidence from cereals trade in SADC

Africa is one of the continents most vulnerable to climate change. While global temperatures have risen by 0.2°C per decade since 1991, Africa has registered a 0.3°C increase (WMO, 2022). Beyond rising temperatures, Africa faces various related challenges, including rising sea levels, unpredictable rainfall leading to both droughts and severe storms, and increased threats from plant pests and animal diseases. As a result, the continent is expected to see a significant decline in arable land, further compromising its agricultural future. Specifically, southern Africa is highly climate vulnerable. Water scarcity is critical for food security, yet trade can help reallocate cereals from water-rich to water-scarce areas. Indeed one often-overlooked aspect in the discussion about trade and climate change is how trade can actually help combat climate change. Indeed, when production is shifted from places that have limited environmental resources to those that are rich in them, the ecological footprint of economic activities can be lessened. For instance, international and regional trade have the potential to conserve water on both global and regional scales by exporting water-intensive goods from regions that have high water efficiency or abundant water resources to those with less availability (Fracasso 2014), yielding a much more efficient allocation of water resources around the world. SADC’s own regional water policy recognizes comparative advantage in water as a basis for trade integration (SADC 2005). This policy note reviews virtual water trade in the SADC region and tests whether trade flows reflect countries’ comparative advantage in water endowment, with a focus on cereals. It first presents an overview of virtual water trade flows in the region and uses an econometric model to test the link between water endowments and the water content of trade flows. We conclude with a discussion and some policy implications.

More land, more diverse diets? Exploring production and consumption trade-offs in the eastern Indo-Gangetic plains

Harvesting change: The impact of climate change on Africa’s agriFood systems

Africa is one of the most exposed continents to climate change. While global temperature has risen by 0.2°C per decade since 1991, in Africa the rate is faster, reaching 0.3°C (WMO 2022). Yet Africa contributes only modestly to climate change. Indeed, the continent emits 7 times less greenhouse gas compared to Europe and 15 times compared to North America (IPCC, 2023). In addition to rising temperatures, climate change affects Africa through several channels, including an increase in ocean levels, variations in precipitations (droughts and heavy rains), plant pests and animal diseases. Climate change is also expected to contribute to a significant reduction in arable land in the continent (IPCC, 2023). The new CAADP strategy and action plan for 2026-2035 recognizes that Africa is the hardest hit by climate change and that the phenomenon is one of the major threats to Africa’s agricultural systems and food security in the coming years. All of these changes will affect agricultural production, a major challenge for Africa, as African economies and livelihoods remain heavily dependent on agriculture. Agriculture still represents 16% of Africa GDP with contributions ranging from 3% in Southern Africa to 25% in the eastern part of the continent. Due to the low level of labor productivity in agriculture, the sector’s contributions to total employment are higher than those of other sectors. By inducing structural changes in agricultural production, climate change will also affect trade flows by shifting comparative advantages between and within continents. Prices will also be affected. This Policy Brief i shows how Africa’s agricultural production and trade patterns are altered by climate change. It highlights the large impacts of climate change on agricultural production, reinforcing results from other work. It shows that the impacts on prices compound the production impacts on African economies and people given many countries in the region are net importers. However, the work also shows that there are substantial differences across the region in the size of the impacts.

Rice productivity in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2025 dry season and outlook for the 2025 monsoon

We analyze paddy rice productivity and profitability for the 2024 and 2025 dry seasons, using data from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted between August 11 to October 26, 2025. The survey covered plots managed by 872 paddy producers.

Agricultural innovation frames, policies, and instruments: Evolution, lessons, and future research

Regional implications of public investments and external shocks in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis

Improvements in telecommunications have enabled a tremendous increase in the flow of information across Papua New Guinea. Although transport costs remain high between various parts of the main island of Papua New Guinea, as well as between the main island and other parts of the country (e.g. the islands of New Britain and Bougainville to the East), phone and internet conditions enable government, traders and entrepreneurs to share market information that reduces transactions costs and improves market function. Nonetheless, there remain major differences in agricultural production, income sources and demand patterns across regions that are important to take into account in analyzing the impacts of external shocks and formulating development strategies. Earlier work on PNG by Schmidt et al., (2021) explored the effects of Covid-related income and world rice price shocks with a partial equilibrium model of PNG’s rice economy. Diao et al., (2021) used a regional multi-market model to analyze broader effects of Covid-19 and other shocks to agriculture and household incomes in four regions of PNG. Various other studies, including Dorosh and Pradesha (2022) and Diao et al. (2024), used national computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of PNG to analyze exchange rate, terms of trade, and productivity shocks on various household groups. In this paper, we extend these earlier analyses through use of a new regional CGE model that utilizes recent household survey data, including the 2023 IFPRI PNG rural household survey. The plan of this paper is as follows. The next section provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last decade, highlighting the almost constant share of agriculture in GDP and very low per capita agricultural GDP growth rate. Section 3 describes the regional disaggregation of the PNG economy and the structure of household incomes and expenditure as reflected in the economywide database, the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), used in this analysis. Section 4 then presents a summary of the regional economywide model. (Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper.) Design of the model simulations and simulation results covering investments in agriculture and transport sectors, as well as world price shocks are discussed in Section 5. Chapter 6 concludes with a summary of the main findings and policy implications, as well as suggested areas for further work.

Public expenditure on agriculture, youth out-migration, and engagement in agriculture? Evidence from Nigeria

Theoretical models posit that migration decisions are driven by differences in economic opportunities across locations, including across rural and urban areas, which implies that increased rural investment can curb rural-urban migration and encourage engagement in agriculture. However, direct empirical evidence of this remains scant, especially on youth migration in Africa. We fill this knowledge gap by examining the effect of temporal changes in public expenditures for the agriculture sector (PEA) on rural youth’s migration and engagement in rural economies in Nigeria. We combine unique subnational data that capture PEA’s spatiotemporal variations and individual level youth data and estimate two-way fixed effects models. We find that a 1 percentage point increase (equivalent to a 25 percent increase) in the share of PEA, is associated with up to 0.9 percentage points reduction in youth’s out-migration. Conversely, an increase in PEA leads to increased youth engagement in farm activities. Our results suggest that public investments in rural economies can mitigate youth out-migration from rural areas. These results have important implications for informing youth and migration policies, especially in the context of Africa, often characterized by its youth bulge and the exodus of youth from rural areas because of perceived lack of economic opportunities.

Bridging the gap: How human-centered design can help unlock bottlenecks in the diffusion of small-scale irrigation in Nigeria

Ample evidence shows that small-scale irrigation (SSI) has positive impacts on agricultural productivity, poverty reduction, climate resilience and household food security, nutrition. Despite this, adoption of SSI has remained low in sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria, where previous research suggests potential for adoption is largest. Factors such as high cost of technologies, farmers’ risk behavior, lack of incentives, and lack of access to finance and capacity gaps have often been noted as key constraints limiting the adoption/scaling of SSI among smallholders. However, in an environment with low overall levels of use, it is important to not only focus on the challenges experienced by smallholder farmers, but also on those of key intermediary actors—specifically government, irrigation equipment distributors, and finance institutions—that are critical for a supportive enabling environment of SSI technology diffusion. To understand the constraints these groups encounter and propose innovative policy, financial, and supply chain solutions, we conducted a series of human-centered design (HCD) workshops in three locations in Nigeria. Key solutions proposed during nine workshops include the need for cross-sector coordination and policy harmonization, improved data and digital systems and platforms, customized financial products and risk-sharing options for SSI, capacity-sharing for extension services, and specific strategies to support women farmers so that they benefit equally.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: October 2025

Sudan’s markets in October 2025 showed relative stability with several commodities experiencing improved availability and quality. Wheat and wheat flour prices declined, while sorghum, millet, vegetables, lentils, meat, oilseeds, and sugar showed mixed but generally stable trends. Fuel prices fell early in the month before stabilizing, and fertilizer prices remained steady with better availability. Regional disparities persisted, with Darfur, Kordofan, and parts of Blue Nile continuing to record the highest prices for many goods due to conflict, transport disruptions, and liquidity constraints. Supply chain problems increased compared with September, driven by security concerns, high transport costs, exchange rate pressures, and limited cash access. Most merchants reported no major challenges related to storage, power, or hiring workers, although market safety concerns rose slightly, especially in North Darfur. Tax compliance increased at the federal level but remained highest at state and locality levels. Despite ongoing challenges, merchants continued to show resilience: over half plan to maintain current trade levels, nearly one-third expect to expand, and only small shares intend to reduce trade, change commodities, or relocate, although uncertainty increased modestly.

Rewriting the rules: How U.S. tariff paths could reshape global trade

This paper examines how the recent shift in United States tariff policy could reshape global agricultural trade and influence the stability of food systems worldwide. Using the MIRAGRODEP computable general equilibrium model, the analysis evaluates three policy scenarios that reflect the current trajectory of trade tensions: the North America scenario, the Liberation Day tariff package, and a renewed U.S.–China tariff confrontation. The scenario results reveal distinct lessons. The North America scenario shows that deeply integrated regional markets are extremely sensitive to tariff shocks, and even moderate tariff increases within North America lead to significant disruptions in agricultural trade and measurable welfare losses for Canada and Mexico. The Liberation Day scenario demonstrates that unilateral tariff escalation reduces U.S. competitiveness across a wide range of agricultural products and triggers substantial trade diversion toward countries with preferential access, particularly Mexico, which becomes the primary beneficiary of redirected U.S. import demand. The China scenario highlights that renewed U.S.–China tariff escalation produces severe distortions, especially in oilseed markets, as prohibitive tariffs drive China to shift its purchases almost entirely toward South American suppliers, sharply lowering U.S. export prices and fragmenting global supply chains. Across all scenarios, global agricultural trade contracts, supply chains become less efficient, and food systems become more exposed to climate and geopolitical shocks. These findings underscore the need for predictable and coordinated trade policies that limit uncertainty rather than amplify it. Strengthening trade diversification, investing in supply chain resilience, and aligning economic and geopolitical objectives remain essential for safeguarding global food security in an increasingly unstable trade environment.

Nutrition and dietary quality in Sri Lanka: Insights from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

Key findings and policy implications • Dietary quality in Sri Lanka – defined in terms of consumption levels of different healthy food groups – falls well short of the Sri Lankan Ministry of Health’s 2021 Food-Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDG) targets, with clear imbalances across food groups. • Heavy dependence on starchy staples. Starchy foods dense in calories but sparse in nutrients provide over 60% of total energy consumption, highlighting a strong over-consumption of rice. • Low consumption of nutrient-rich foods. Intakes of fruits, dark green leafy vegetables (DGLVs), and legumes are at only about one-third of the recommended levels. • Some households report zero consumption of healthy food groups. More than 30% of households report zero consumption of dairy foods in the past 7 days, while 15% report zero consumption of dark green leafy vegetables, and 5% zero fruit, indicating that important foods are absent from many household diets. • Multidimensional dietary deprivation. Nearly all Sri Lankan households are deprived in at least one food group. A typical deprived household falls below the reference threshold in six to seven of eight food groups and consumes only about 37% of the recommended amounts for the foods in which consumption is lower than recommended. • Significant dietary inequality across sectors. Dietary deprivation is most acute in the estate sector, while rural and urban areas fare moderately better. • There is a clear need to promote healthy dietary diversification, especially higher consumption of fruits, legumes, vegetables and dairy, while moderating excess consumption of starchy staples. • Institutionalize regular monitoring of diet deprivation, using the Reference Diet Deprivation (ReDD) index and other dietary indicators to guide targeted nutrition interventions. • Support further research on the drivers of dietary patterns in Sri Lanka to better understand its determinants and differences between sectors.

From pledges to action: NDC 3.0 for poverty reduction and climate justice in Nepal

Located in the heart of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, Nepal plays a vital geopolitical and ecological role in South Asia’s climate landscape. Although the country contributes less than 0.03 percent to global greenhouse gas emissions (MoFE 2020) and has extensive forest cover of 46 percent (MoFE 2025), it faces disproportionate risks from climate-induced disasters, such as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), erratic monsoons, and prolonged droughts. The HKH region spans eight countries and hosts 10 major river basins and more than 87,000 square kilometers of glaciers, delivering water and ecosystem services to more than 1.9 billion people downstream (ICIMOD 2025a). Within this complex hydrological system, Nepal’s rivers—including the Koshi, Gandaki, and Karnali—not only sustain local livelihoods but also feed millions in India’s Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, and even parts of China. Climate justice is imperative in this context: Nepal’s low emissions profile stands in stark contrast to its high vulnerability (CVF 2024), requiring urgent attention to equity, adaptation finance, and inclusive development pathways. This policy note discusses Nepal’s role in climate justice diplomacy, examines the regional and country-level context of climate risk, and assesses Nepal’s third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) to reframe climate action through a justice-centered lens.

Climate risks and agricultural changes in conflict-affected Myanmar

Climate change and conflict are increasingly shaping livelihoods in Myanmar, with agricultural households among the most directly affected. Yet, empirical evidence on how these stressors affect farmers’ adaptation strategies and agricultural assets remains limited. We draw on unique largescale primary surveys: Over a three-year period, we conducted bi-annual surveys with nearly 5,000 farmers, collecting data on exposure to conflict, natural risks, climate change perceptions, agricultural adaptation, and agricultural land valuation.

The effects of a secondary school scholarship on youth outcomes: Evidence from a randomized trial

Although primary school enrollment has steadily increased in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years, enrollment in secondary school remains generally low in comparison with other regions (Evans and Mendez Acosta 2021). In Ethiopia, enrollment in lower secondary school roughly doubled over the past decade to reach an estimated 46 percent in 2021–2022, but substantial heterogeneity exists across rural and urban areas and across poorer and richer households (Tiruneh and Molla 2024). In rural areas, long distances from home to school often pose a substantial barrier to secondary school enrollment, especially for poor households. In addition to the real or perceived risks of insecurity linked to attendance – encountering insecure conditions along the route, or risks for youth who reside away from home to attend – these lengthy distances imply substantial out-of-pocket costs for transportation or accommodation, and households may struggle to manage these costs (Leight et al. 2022). Limited post-primary educational attainment can have substantial adverse effects for youth, limiting their opportunities for future employment and income generation and increasing the likelihood of early marriage for girls (Giacobino et al. 2024). This project note reports the main findings from a randomized trial conducted in rural Ethiopia, which assessed the effects of a scholarship for lower secondary school students (ninth and tenth grade) targeting extremely poor youth. We find that the provision of a scholarship led to a 12-percentage-point increase in the probability of secondary school enrollment two years later compared to youth who did not receive a scholarship, an effect that was greatest among students who received early notification about the scholarship (one year before eligibility). There was no change in attendance or academic performance, suggesting that students in the treatment arm performed as well as those in the control arm. Some evidence also indicated a small decline in the likelihood of child marriage and an enhancement in youth well-being. Overall, the findings suggest that the scholarship may be a valuable intervention to increase secondary school attainment, particularly if announced earlier; however, a third of youth who passed the primary school exam and were offered a scholarship still did not enroll. This suggests there are other important barriers to secondary school progression in this sample.

Accessing Aswesuma: Key findings on Sri Lanka’s new social protection program from the bright 2024-25 national survey

• We use the nationally representative BRIGHT 2024-25 survey to document Aswesuma access at the national and subnational level, and among poor and food-insecure households • At the time of the BRIGHT 2024-2025 survey, the Aswesuma program covered 29.1% of the Sri Lankan population compared to just 18.8% of the population under Samurdhi in 2016: a 10.3 percentage point improvement. However, at the time of the survey, the Aswesuma program has still not reached its target of 35% national population coverage. • Encouragingly, the largest expansion of cash transfer access was in upland (Estate) districts, who had limited access to cash transfers under the previous Samurdhi program • Aswesuma access among poor populations was highest in the Estate sector (56%), followed by the rural (46%) and urban populations (44%) • Aswesuma transfers are unlikely to reduce employment or other income-generating activities among the poor, as Aswesuma cash transfers only represent 19% of the expenditures of the poorest 20% of households, and just 10% for the next poorest group. • While Aswesuma transfers may protect households against low calorie intake (hunger), Aswesuma households still have low-quality diets, under-consuming fruits, vegetables, dairy, and legumes in particular • Nutritional knowledge is also much poorer among Aswesuma beneficiaries than the rest of the Sri Lankan population, particularly knowledge of key micronutrient-rich foods • These results imply the need for a wide range of policy-oriented research and follow-up surveys on drivers of access to Aswesuma, but also impacts of Aswesuma on key welfare indicators • There is also a need to explore and improve multisectoral coordination between Aswesuma and other programs on child nutrition and development, as well as women’s empowerment.

Implications of increased urbanization and consumer awareness on future food supplies in Tanzania

Tanzania’s food system faces increasing pressure from rapid urbanization, population growth, and shifting consumer preferences toward more nutritious and diverse diets. This study analyzes how these macro trends will affect national food supply needs by 2050 and identifies key policy entry points to ensure an efficient, sustainable, and equitable food system transformation. Using census data (2012–2022) and the National Panel Survey (2020/21), combined with two international healthy diet benchmarks – the EAT-Lancet Reference Diet (ELRD) and the Hypothetical Micronutrient Adequate Diet (HMAD) – the report projects the required food supply volumes to provide all Tanzanians with healthy diets by 2050. Tanzania’s population is projected to more than double, from 59.8 million in 2020/21 to 138.1 million by 2050, with the share of urban residents rising from 34.5% to 55.4%. This demographic shift implies that a relatively smaller rural workforce will need to feed a much larger and more urban population, requiring higher productivity and stronger rural-urban linkages. Current diets in Tanzania are heavily dominated by cereals and sugar products and contain too few fruits, dairy products, and eggs (according to both healthy diet references) combined with insufficient amounts of vegetables (according to ELRD) as well as meat and fish products (according to HMAD). To assure a heathy diet for all by 2050, the supplies and consumption of food from these food groups must expand substantially. This not only requires that total annual food supplies increase from 24 million tons to 52 million tons (under ELRD) or 62 million tons (under HMAD), but certainly also that its composition change dramatically: vegetables by roughly 3 times of current supply; oils by 4 times; fruits by 5 times; dairy by 8 times; eggs by 10 times (under ELRD) and 37 times (under HMAD), and meat and fish by 4 and 8 times (under HMAD), respectively. In contrast, cereal and sugar production can remain stable or even decrease slightly without compromising nutritional adequacy. Meeting these targets requires significant productivity gains. For key commodities such as milk, oranges, sunflower oil, tomatoes, and beans, yield improvements of 2-10 times current levels are needed, though still within feasible global productivity frontiers. Addressing post-harvest losses (PHL) and expanding processing, cold storage, and urban agriculture are possibly also critical avenues to reduce waste and improve food availability. From an environmental viewpoint, the study urges the adoption of sustainable intensification practices and climate-smart livestock management, with emphasis on reducing emissions per unit of output, diversifying protein sources toward fish and poultry, and improving logistics and market inclusion for smallholders. In policy terms, the report highlights alignment between its findings and Tanzania’s Agriculture Master Plan (2024), noting that 12 of the 20 government-prioritized commodities (e.g., banana, avocado, tomatoes, sunflower, beans, and dairy) are also essential for future healthy diets. However, important food items such as eggs, onions, leafy vegetables, mangoes, and oranges remain underemphasized and deserve greater policy focus. The agenda on PHL, though formally acknowledged, is also inadequately mainstreamed into Tanzania’s broader agricultural policy framework. In conclusion, achieving healthy diets for all Tanzanians by 2050 will require, in addition to raising nutrition awareness and improving economic affordability among the population: • A more than doubling of total food supplies with major shifts toward nutrient-rich foods, • Substantial agricultural productivity and efficiency gains, • A stronger emphasis on reducing PHL and strengthening urban food systems, and • A coordinated policy focus on nutrition-sensitive and environmentally sustainable production.

Food insecurity in post-crisis Sri Lanka: Evidence from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

We assess food insecurity in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT National Household Survey data for 2024-2025, which collected data on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) developed by the FAO. • 32.8% of households in Sri Lanka experienced moderate or severe food insecurity in the 12 months prior to the survey, with 29.6% classified as moderately and 3.2% classified as severely food insecure. In contrast, food insecurity was just 12% in the 2019 Household Income and Expenditure survey (HIES), such that food insecurity has almost tripled since the 2022 economic crisis. • A very high 54.5% of Estate households (households that reside in housing on an estate/plantation) experienced food insecurity (43.2% moderate, and 11.4% severe), compared to 35.3% of urban and 31.8% of rural households. Eastern (39.1%), Uva (38.5%), and Southern (38.1%) provinces recorded the highest food insecurity rates. • Dry-zone households show slightly higher moderate and severe insecurity (34.6%) than inter-mediate (31.1%) and wet zones (24.6%). • Households dependent on informal employment are more than twice as likely to report food in-security (41% moderate, 5% severe) compared to formal employment households (18% moderate, 1% severe). • Fishing households are the most food insecure across all livelihoods with 58% experiencing moderate or severe insecurity, including 10% reporting severe food insecurity. Households de-pendent on construction (41%), agriculture (38%), textiles/artisans (35%), manufacturing (29%), food and beverage preparation (27%) and services (23%) also reported high food insecurity. • Splitting by wealth quintiles, the poorest 20% of households in Sri Lanka have a food insecurity prevalence of 45% including 10% who are severely food insecure. Food insecurity declines as wealth increases but is still high for the second (34%) and middle quintiles (25%). • The FIES-based indicator reports much higher food insecurity in 2024 (32.8%) than the WFP’s alternative CARI method of estimating food insecurity (16%). • FIES-based measures can support more frequent monitoring of food insecurity in Sri Lanka via phone surveys and help assess the impacts of programs such as Aswesuma.

Climate shocks and climate smart agricultural adoption in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess the adoption of climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices and the role of climate shocks using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024–2025. • Twenty percent of farmers faced severe climatic shocks, while 40 percent faced more moderate negative shocks. • The largest share of farmers reporting natural shocks lived in the dry zone. • Forty-four percent of farmers were negatively affected by pests and diseases, including 72 .per-cent of oilseed and tuber farmers. • Seventy-four percent of farmers reported that changing weather patterns affect their income. • Forty-one percent of farmers reported that they were currently using at least one climate smart agricultural practice (CSA). • Crop type strongly predicts CSA adoption. Vegetable, pulse, and maize farmers are significantly more likely to adopt CSA practices, with marginal effects indicating increases of roughly 16–17 percentage points. In contrast, rice cultivation is not significantly associated with adoption—im-portant given rice’s dominance in the country. • Adoption levels of CSA practices vary sharply across provinces. Eastern Province shows the highest adoption (66 percent), while Sabaragamuwa records the lowest adoption at just 14 per-cent. • Exposure to climate shocks increases CSA adoption. Experiencing a moderate or severe climate shock in the previous year is associated with a 6–7 percentage point increase in CSA adoption, suggesting that shocks are prompting adaptive responses. Policy Implications for Sri Lanka • Strengthen CSA adoption in lagging provinces. Sabaragamuwa, North Western, and Western show consistently low adoption despite exposure to climate risks. • Expand and tailor extension services to promote CSA for the most climate vulnerable farmers.

The state of agricultural extension services in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025

We assess the state of Sri Lanka’s agricultural extension services using the BRIGHT 2024-2025 national survey. We examine use of or access to extension by land size and wealth, farmers’ trust in different providers, and farmers use of innovative sources of extension, including digital channels.. • Fifty-five percent of Sri Lankan farmers accessed some form of extension in 2024/2025 • Public extension agents remain the most trusted source of advice, yet their reach differs sharply by region—from as high as 75% in North-Western Province to as low as 30% in Northern Province. • Access to agricultural extension varies widely across provinces, with the highest access in Northern Province (84%) and the lowest in Central and Western Provinces (around 44%). • In the Northern Province, despite low public provision, farmers compensate through strong reliance on input retailers (64%) and Farmers’ Organizations (71%), indicating robust informal ex-tension networks. • Extension access is strongly related to cultivated area and asset ownership. Only 40% of farmers cultivating less than 0.5 acres received any form of extension, compared to 71% among those with more than 3 acres. Similarly, only 39% of households in the lowest wealth quintile accessed extension, compared to 62% in the highest quintile. • Wealthier farmers and those with more cultivated acres not only access extension more frequently but also from a wider range of sources, underscoring inequality in information access and opportunity. • Digital channels, such as Facebook and other online groups, play a growing but still limited role, concentrated mainly in the Western Province where internet access is strongest. Policy Implications for Sri Lanka • Targeted efforts are needed to expand extension access in lagging regions—particularly Central, Western, and Uva Provinces—by strengthening reach of both public and non-public agents. • Dedicated actions are needed to expand extension services across a wider range of crops—particularly beyond rice and the traditional plantation sector—as well as across sub-sectors • Given the high trust and engagement within farmer associations, these organizations should be leveraged as key partners for training delivery, group learning, and scaling up new practices. • More research is needed on the effectiveness of different extension modalities, including digital

Water insecurity in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025: Evidence from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

We assess water insecurity in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024-2025. Key Findings • Compared to the 2016 DHS data, the 2024 BRIGHT results show moderate improvements in access to improved drinking water sources. Estate sector households show the greatest relative improvement, with the share using improved water sources increasing by approximately five percentage points. This shift is driven primarily by a 15-percentage-point rise in the use of protected wells, although nearly half (49%) of estate households continue to rely on rivers, springs, or tank water. • Most households in Sri Lanka report few insecurity experiences, and are therefore mostly water secure, with 90% not experiencing water insecurity. • Differences between groups are subtle and occur mainly between marginal and low levels of water security, rather than between fully secure and insecure households. • 68% of estate households (households on plantations), experienced at least water insecurity experience compared to only 28% of urban households and 33% of rural households. • Households in dry agroecological zones face slightly higher risks water insecurity (11%) com-pared to 9% of in both intermediate and wet zones. • Poverty is a key predictor of water insecurity. The poorest households are 6.8 times more likely to experience extreme water insecurity than the richest households. • Sri Lanka has lower levels of water insecurity than most other lower-middle income countries but needs to address poor water security in populations left behind. Improving water security in estate areas and in the dry zone should be national water security priorities

Impact of conflict on key agro-industries in Khartoum State, Sudan: Wheat flour milling, oil processing, and packaging

This study evaluates the effects of the ongoing armed conflict in Sudan on the agro-industrial sector in Khartoum state, with a focus on the wheat flour milling, edible oil, and packaging materials industries. The conflict, which started in April 2023, has led to widespread population displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and severe economic disruptions, especially in Khartoum, Sudan’s most industrialized and densely populated state. The assessment is based on a combination of primary data, including satellite imagery, site visits, technical questionnaires, and key informant interviews, and secondary sources, such as official reports. Data were collected from 15 industrial facilities located in the Khartoum North, Garri, and Soba industrial zones. These include four facilities in the wheat flour milling sector, ten in the edible oil sector, and one in the packaging materials sector. Due to security constraints and widespread infrastructure destruction, access to the industrial zones and the factories was restricted. Moreover, price volatility, inflation, and shortages of skilled labor and materials further complicated the assessment, making it difficult to accurately value the observed and reported damages and losses in these industries. Our estimate of the total estimated damages and losses across the three sectors is USD 407 million. Financial losses represent 51 percent of these losses, while about 23 percent of the losses were related to losses of inventory and 11 percent to losses of logistical and maintenance assets of the agro-businesses. The wheat flour milling sector incurred the highest overall losses. Notably, financial losses dominate across the three sectors, primarily driven by the conflict halting factory operations and disrupting supply chains. Recovery for these industries will be prolonged. In the wheat flour milling sector, the average repair timeline anticipated for bringing production buildings back into full use is 6.8 months, while for electrical systems, it is 5.7 months. Estimated repair periods for the edible oil sector are 6.0 months for oilseed handling and preparation machinery and 5.9 months for electrical systems. Expected repair periods for electrical components in the packaging materials are similarly 6.0 months, reflecting relatively similar challenges in restoring operational capacity across the three industrial sectors. Stakeholder interviews underscored the urgent need for enhanced security, improved access to financing, tax relief, and market protection. Government responses—guided by the 2024 Sudan Industrial Development Conference—have focused on deploying security forces, improving institutional coordination, and providing limited financial support to the country’s factories. However, significant implementation gaps remain, particularly in access to financing for and enforcement of regulatory measures within the industrial sector. A phased, sector-specific industrial recovery strategy is recommended that prioritizes financial recovery, inventory replenishment, and restoration of infrastructure critical to industrial production. Also needed is stronger coordination between public and private sector actors, improved access to concessional financing, and a better alignment of industrial policy with agricultural supply chains to foster long-term resilience in the agro-industrial sector.

Vendors outside of markets in Viet Nam

The food environment represents the place in which demand for food meets supply: consumers purchase foods in the food environment, and food retailers market and sell their products. In many countries, the food environment is undergoing rapid changes as economies grow and populations urbanize, with the consequence that a larger share of food consumed is purchased by the end consumer, rather than being self produced (de Bruin and Holleman 2023). Viet Nam is no different: over time, the country’s growing and urbanizing economy has led to shifts in its food environment. This note focuses on one type of retailer in Viet Nam’s food environment: food vendors that exist outside of formal markets. These vendors typically sell their goods in a fixed location, unlike mobile vendors, and do business on a daily or near-daily basis from that location. This definition includes vendors in “toad markets,” which are vendors who set up right outside of official markets, and other vendors who work in a fixed location but lack a storefront. All such vendors are clearly part of the informal sector. These vendors play a small but important role in Viet Nam’s food environment, and almost all of them sell at least one component of a sustainable healthy diet. As a result, these vendors can help to improve the diets of Viet Nam’s population. This note uses two data sets to examine small vendors outside markets. The first is a listing exercise that enumerates all businesses selling food in the sampled wards of three districts: Dong Da, in urban Hanoi; Dong Anh, in peri-urban Hanoi; and Moc Chau, a rural district northwest of Hanoi. This survey was used as a sample frame for the second survey; the second one was designed to examine the constraints and opportunities faced by micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) as they consider selling more healthy foods (Ceballos et al. 2023). Vendors outside of markets are one type of MSME in the food environment.

Multistakeholder platforms in transboundary waters: What do we know, and where should we go?

This policy brief synthesizes recent evidence on multistakeholder platforms (MSPs) in shared river basins and presents practical guidance for river basin organizations, development partners, and policymakers. It compares established basin-level MSP approaches across three basins (Nile, Zambezi, and Mekong) and describes how stakeholders in the Incomati and Maputo River Basins—shared across the Republic of South Africa, Eswatini, and Mozambique—built on these approaches to design their own MSP. This brief translates comparative evidence and field experience into a practical toolkit for advancing MSPs in shared basins.

Understanding recent prices increases of animal-source foods in Myanmar

The livestock sector in Myanmar represents a significant component of the national economy, contributing approximately 6 percent to the country’s GDP. Beyond its economic role, the sector provides critical livelihood opportunities for rural households and underpins the supply of animal-source foods (ASF), which are essential for enhancing dietary diversity and nutritional outcomes. A resilient and efficiently functioning livestock sector also generates important multiplier effects, contributing to poverty reduction, employment creation, and overall economic growth (Diao et al. 2024). This note summarizes recent structural and market developments in Myanmar’s livestock industry and examines their implications for ASF price dynamics.

Conflict and agricultural inputs: Impacts on maize yields in Nigeria

While standard agronomic recommendations advocate for increased application of inorganic fertilizer to boost maize yields across sub-Saharan Africa, there is limited understanding of how violent conflict influences smallholder farmers’ fertilizer demand, yield responses, and the overall profitability of fertilizer use. This study addresses this gap by analyzing how exposure to conflict affects input use decisions and the economic returns to fertilizer among maize farmers in Nigeria. Using detailed household-level data and spatially referenced conflict events, we estimate maize yield response functions with respect to nitrogen application and assess the profitability of fertilizer under varying levels of conflict exposure. Our findings reveal three key results. First, the marginal physical product (MPP) of nitrogen is low across the study sample, indicating limited agronomic responsiveness. Second, conflict exposure significantly reduces the likelihood and intensity of fertilizer use, suggesting that insecurity constrains both input access and willingness to invest. Third, conflict lowers the MPP of nitrogen even further, thereby reducing the marginal value-cost ratio (MVCR) and undermining the profitability of fertilizer use. These results highlight the importance of considering conflict as a key external factor that distorts input-output relationships in agricultural production. Insecurity not only affects access to inputs through higher prices and disrupted supply chains, but also alters expected returns, making fertilizer investments less attractive for risk-averse farmers. Recognizing the effects of conflict on fertilizer use and yield response is essential for designing more effective input subsidy programs, targeting strategies, and resilience-building interventions in fragile agricultural systems.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, October 2025

On average, retail prices of maize stabilized in October at a level below their pre-election peak. National-level price stability concealed market-level variations in maize prices. Imports continued dominating cross-border trade in maize.

Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks

Purpose We study five exogenous shocks: climate, violence, price hikes, spoilage and the COVID-19 lockdown. We analyze the association between these shocks and trader characteristics, reflecting trader vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach Using primary survey data on 1,100 Nigerian maize traders for 2021 (controlling for shocks in 2017), we use probit models to estimate the probabilities of experiencing climate, violence, disease and cost shocks associated with trader characteristics (gender, size and region) and to estimate the probability of vulnerability (experiencing severe impacts). Findings Traders are prone to experiencing more than one shock, which increases the intensity of the shocks. Price shocks are often accompanied by violence, climate and COVID-19 shocks. The poorer northern region is disproportionately affected by shocks. Northern traders experience more price shocks while Southern traders are more affected by violence shocks given their dependence on long supply chains from the north for their maize. Female traders are more likely to experience violent events than men who tend to be more exposed to climate shocks. Research limitations/implications The data only permit analysis of the general degree of impact of a shock rather than quantifying lost income. Originality/value This paper is the first to analyze the incidence of multiple shocks on grain traders and the unequal distribution of negative impacts. It is the first such in Africa based on a large sample of grain traders from a primary survey.

Statistics from Space: Next-Generation Agriculture Production Information for Enhanced Monitoring of Food Security in Mozambique – Groundtruthing data collection and stakeholder engagement report

The Statistics from Space project (SFS) seeks to support the Government of Mozambique to produce and disseminate accurate crop production statistical data leveraging satellite remote-sensing data and artificial intelligence augmented analytics. The project, funded by the Government of the Republic of Korea (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs; MAFRA), aims to provide the Mozambican Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development with production estimates of major crops across three provinces namely Gaza, Manica and Zambezia in a sufficiently timely manner so that all market participants can use the information for decision-making. SFS is a three years project and has four main components: (1) Stakeholders engagement for impacts, led by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); (2) Enhanced area sampling frame led by ITC/University of Twente; (3) Digital collection of groundtruthing data, led by Centre of Excellence in Agri-Food Systems and Nutrition (CE-AFSN) at Eduardo Mondlane University; and (4)Analytical framework, led by Seoul National University (SNU). This Report is part of component 3 of the SFS project and has an overall objective to depict all activities carried out during the data collection process in the several districts of Gaza, Manica and Zambezia provinces which are the target regions of the project. The report also includes the methodology approach used since the interaction and involvement of local stakeholders. At the last sections, the report includes the main findings from the data collection process, challenges and constraints, lessons learnt and the next steps.

Statistics from Space: Next-Generation Agriculture Production Information for Enhanced Monitoring of Food Security in Mozambique – Groundtruthing data collection and stakeholder engagement

Mozambique faces challenges in staple food crop production, which makes crop yield prediction vital for effective policy-making on food security. The analytic framework that integrates satellite data and crop growth simulations to forecast regional crop yield can aid policy makers. The objectives of this study were to apply the analytic framework to three major crop production regions in Mozambique including Gaza, Manica, and Nampula provinces for maize, soybean, and rice. The gridded crop growth simulations were performed using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). A set of crop management scenarios were applied to the crop growth simulations. One of these simulations were identified to obtain crop yield hindcasts by cell comparing leaf area index data derived from the simulations and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. Crop yield hindcasts were obtained using a percentile of crop yield distribution using three preceding growing seasons. It was found that the percentile used for crop yield hindcasts differed by crop and province. The accuracy of maize and soybean yield hindcasts was within an acceptable range, e.g., < 20% of crop yield in growing seasons, whereas that of rice yield hindcasts was considerably high. Crop yield predictions were limited by the use of crop management scenarios such as cultivars and fertilizer application. Despite biases and limitations in representing real farming conditions, the framework provided insights into improving staple food crop production. It was also highlighted that detailed knowledge on crop management practices such as cultivar and fertilizer applications would improve the reliability of the analytic framework to predict crop yield in the major production regions in Mozambique.

Statistics from Space: Next-Generation Agriculture Production Information for Enhanced Monitoring of Food Security in Mozambique – Enumerators training report

The Statistics from Space project (SFS) seeks to support the Government of Mozambique to produce and disseminate accurate crop production statistical data leveraging satellite remote-sensing data and artificial intelligence augmented analytics. The project, funded by the Government of the Republic of Korea (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs; MAFRA), aims to provide the Mozambican Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development with production estimates of major crops across three provinces namely Gaza, Manica and Nampula in a sufficiently timely manner so that all market participants can use the information for decision-making. SFS is a three years project and has four main components: (1) Stakeholders engagement for impacts, led by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); (2) Enhanced area sampling frame led by ITC/University of Twente; (3) Digital collection of groundtruthing data, led by Centre of Excellence in Agri-Food Systems and Nutrition (CE-AFSN) at Eduardo Mondlane University; and (4) Analytical framework, led by Seoul National University (SNU). This Report is part of component 3 of the SFS project and has an overall objective to depict the activities carried out during the enumerators training that took place in Maputo, Manica and Zambezia provinces as the prior phase for the field data collection process in Gaza, Manica and Zambezia provinces.

Ultra-poor Graduation Midline Survey in Somalia, 2023

This dataset comes from the midline survey of a randomized impact evaluation of the Ultra-Poor Graduation (UPG) Model implemented by World Vision Somalia in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in Baidoa, Somalia. The UPG program supports extremely vulnerable households through a combination of cash transfers, savings groups, productive asset or skills training, and life-skills coaching. The midline survey, conducted from July 22 to August 7, 2023, followed up with households to assess progress toward improved food security, household consumption, and asset accumulation, along with secondary outcomes on financial inclusion, income generation, consumption patterns, social cohesion, and locus of control. Eligible households were identified using a vulnerability assessment based on the Household Hunger Scale and length of residence in the IDP site. Of 6,323 eligible households, 5,000 were enrolled, and 4,116 households (2,872 treatment and 1,244 control) were included in the evaluation. The evaluation survey tracks approximately 4,000 households over three years (2022â 2024) to assess how effectively the UPG model reduces poverty and strengthens resilience in an urban humanitarian context.

Ultra-poor Graduation Endline Survey in Somalia, 2024

This dataset comes from the endline survey of a randomized impact evaluation of the Ultra-Poor Graduation (UPG) Model implemented by World Vision Somalia in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in Baidoa, Somalia. The UPG program supports extremely vulnerable households through a combination of cash transfers, savings groups, productive asset or skills training, and life-skills coaching. The endline survey, conducted from September 27 to October 20, 2024, collected follow-up data to assess final program outcomes on food security, household consumption, and asset accumulation, as well as financial inclusion, income generation, social cohesion, and locus of control. Eligible households were identified through a vulnerability assessment based on the Household Hunger Scale (HHS) and length of residence in the IDP site. Of 6,323 eligible households, 5,000 were enrolled, with 4,116 households (2,872 treatment and 1,244 control) included in the evaluation sample. The survey tracks households over three years (2022–2024) to assess the UPG model’s effectiveness in reducing poverty and strengthening household resilience in an urban humanitarian context.